Gender Effect in Conference Talks

December 22, 2015
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Gender Effect in Conference Talks

I was searching in the arXiv repository for an interesting paper to read over the weekend, when I found this: “Studying Gender in Conference Talks – data from the 223rd meeting of the American Astronomical Society”. The title and figures caught m...

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The longer it has taken, the longer it will take

December 21, 2015
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The longer it has taken, the longer it will take

Suppose project completion time follows a Pareto (power law) distribution with parameter α. That is, for t > 1, the probability that completion time is bigger than t is t-α. (We start out time at t = 1 because that makes the calculations a little simpler.) Now suppose we know that a project has lasted […]

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A non-comprehensive list of awesome things other people did in 2015

December 21, 2015
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Editor's Note: This is the third year I'm making a list of awesome things other people did this year. Just like the lists for 2013 and 2014 I am doing this off the top of my head.   I have avoided talking about stuff I worked on or that people here at Hopkins are doing

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Rapid post-publication review

December 21, 2015
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A colleague points me to a published paper and writes: Do you believe this finding? If your biology isn’t strong enough to pass judgement — mine certainly isn’t — can you ask somebody who knows? My reply: 4 groups with a total n=71? No way. The topic is too sad for me to mock on […] The post Rapid post-publication review appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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On deck this week

December 21, 2015
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Mon: Rapid post-publication review Tues: He’s skeptical about Neuroskeptic’s skepticism Wed: R sucks Thurs: You’ll never guess how we answer this question: “Am I doing myself a disservice by being too idealistic in a corporate environment?” Fri: Gresham’s Law of experimental methods Sat: Turbulent Studies, Rocky Statistics: Publicational Consequences of Experiencing Inferential Instability Sun: There […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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“Once I was told to try every possible specification of a dependent variable (count, proportion, binary indicator, you name it) in a regression until I find a significant relationship. That is it, no justification for choosing one specification over another besides finding significance. . . . In another occasion I was asked to re-write a theory section of a paper to reflect an incidental finding from our analysis, so that it shows up as if we were asking a question about the incidental finding and had come up with the supported hypothesis a priori. . . .”

December 21, 2015
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Ethan Bolker points me to this discussion. My reply: As discussed in my paper with Hill and Yajima, I think the best approach is to analyze all comparisons rather than picking just some. If there is prior understanding that some comparisons are more important than others, that understanding can be included as predictors in the […] The post “Once I was told to try every possible specification of a dependent…

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Making data analysis easier

December 20, 2015
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Making data analysis easier

Di Cook and I are organizing a workshop on “Making data analysis easier” for 18-19 February 2016. We are calling it WOMBAT2016, which an acronym for Workshop Organized by the Monash Business Analytics Team. Appropriately, it will be held at...

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Death of a statistician

December 20, 2015
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Death of a statistician

It’s not often that one of our profession earns an obituary in the New York Times: Lawrence R. Herkimer, who elevated cheerleading into an aspirational goal for generations of youths and a highly successful business for himself, organizing camps for would-be cheerleaders and selling the clothing and gear they would need, died on Wednesday in […] The post Death of a statistician appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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A Replication in Economics: Does “Genetic Distance” to the US Predict Development?

December 19, 2015
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Douglas Campbell writes: A new study finding that more than half of psychology studies failed to replicate is a very positive step forward for social science. Could a similar study be undertaken in economics, and what would it find? Most empirical economics research is non-experimental, and thus I suspect that most studies would replicate in the sense […] The post A Replication in Economics: Does “Genetic Distance” to the US Predict Development?…

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Political Forecasting Machine – The Spanish Edition

December 19, 2015
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Political Forecasting Machine – The Spanish Edition

This is a (rather long, but I think equally interesting!) guest post by Roberto (he's introducing himself below). We had already done some work on similar models a while back and he got so into this that now he wanted to actually take on the ...

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BayesiaLab-Like Network Graphs for Free with R

December 18, 2015
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BayesiaLab-Like Network Graphs for Free with R

My screen has been filled with ads from BayesiaLab since I downloaded their free book. Just as I began to have regrets, I received an email invitation to try out their demo datasets. I was especially interested in their perfume ratings data. In this mo...

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My Poster at Rocky 2015: Estimating parameters of the Hodgkin-Huxley cardiac cell model by integrating raw data from multiple types of voltage-clamp experiments

December 18, 2015
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My Poster at Rocky 2015: Estimating parameters of the Hodgkin-Huxley cardiac cell model by integrating raw data from multiple types of voltage-clamp experiments

I'm recently returned from the 2015 Rocky Mountain Bioinformatics Conference, where I presented the above poster. This is work with a colleague, Rick Gray, at the FDA. He and I collaborate on our NIH award "Optimal Design of Challenge-Response Experiments in Cardiac Electrophysiology" (HL118392) The (original) poster abstract is below, but the poster content is … Continue reading My Poster at Rocky 2015: Estimating parameters of the Hodgkin-Huxley cardiac cell…

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Not So Standard Deviations: Episode 6 – Google is the New Fisher

December 18, 2015
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Episode 6 of Not So Standard Deviations is now posted. In this episode Hilary and I talk about the analytics of our own podcast, and analyses that seem easy but are actually hard. If you haven't already, you can subscribe to the podcast through iTunes. This will be our last episode for 2015 so see you

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Scorched by the heat in Arizona

December 18, 2015
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Scorched by the heat in Arizona

Reader Jeffrey S. saw this graphic inside a Dec 2 tweet from the National Weather Service (NWS) in Phoenix, Arizona. In a Trifecta checkup (link), I'd classify this as Type QV. The problems with the visual design are numerous and...

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Holiday Haze

December 18, 2015
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Holiday Haze

Your dedicated blogger is about to vanish in the holiday haze, returning in the new year. Meanwhile, all best wishes for the holidays.[Photo credit:  Public domain, by Marcus Quigmire, from Florida, USA (Happy Holidays  Uploaded by Princess M...

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Tug of War: Epic battle over data in controversial paper on chronic fatigue syndrome

December 18, 2015
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Tug of War:  Epic battle over data in controversial paper on chronic fatigue syndrome

James Coyne wrote to me a couple weeks ago: This time I’m critiquing a horrible mediational analysis. The larger context is that the authors have refused all requests to share data that would be needed to make an independent evaluation of their interpretation. I am now in what will be a highly visible confrontation with […] The post Tug of War: Epic battle over data in controversial paper on chronic…

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Le Monde puzzle [#939bis]

December 17, 2015
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Le Monde puzzle [#939bis]

If you remember the previous post, I had two interpretations about Le Monde mathematical puzzle #639: Find all integers with less than 11 digits that are perfect squares and can be written as a(a+6), a being an integer. and: Find all integers with less than 11 digits that are perfect squares and can be written […]

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More in the sister blog

December 17, 2015
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Why do we like making year-end lists? This was one that I had no idea how to answer. The post More in the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Gelman on ‘Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper’

December 17, 2015
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Gelman on ‘Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper’

  I’m reblogging Gelman’s post today: “Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper”. I concur with Gelman’s arguments against all Bayesian “inductive support” philosophies, and welcome the Gelman and Shalizi (2013) ‘meeting of the minds’ between an error statistical philosophy and Bayesian falsification (which I regard as a kind of error statistical Bayesianism). […]

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Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper

December 17, 2015
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Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and Popper

Hiro Minato points us to a news article by physicist Natalie Wolchover entitled “A Fight for the Soul of Science.” I have no problem with most of the article, which is a report about controversies within physics regarding the purported untestability of physics models such as string theory (as for example discussed by my Columbia […] The post Gathering of philosophers and physicists unaware of modern reconciliation of Bayes and…

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Memorability, Science, and The Value of Thinking Outside the Box

December 17, 2015
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Memorability, Science, and The Value of Thinking Outside the Box

Stephen Few has written a long and scathing piece tearing down a paper presented at VIS earlier this year. While some of his criticism is justified, it is too focused on one of the authors, and it comes from an idea of visualization research that is far too limited. The paper in question is Beyond … Continue reading Memorability, Science, and The Value of Thinking Outside the Box

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Working Stiff

December 16, 2015
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After a challenging development process we are happy to announce that Stan finally supports stiff ODE systems, removing one of the key obstacles in fields such as pharmacometrics and ecology.  For the experts, we’ve incorporated CVODE 2.8.2 into Stan and exposed the backward-differentiation formula solver using Newton iterations and a banded Jacobian computed exactly using our autodiff. […] The post Working Stiff appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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LaCour and Green 1, This American Life 0

December 16, 2015
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A couple days after listening to the segment where This American Life got conned by Mars One, I happened to listen to the This American Life segment on LaCour and Green. LaCour didn’t appear on the show but Green did. Wow, Ira Glass really got scammed. But it was a pretty elaborate con; LaCour not […] The post LaCour and Green 1, This American Life 0 appeared first on Statistical…

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