You won’t believe these stunning transformations: How to parameterize hyperpriors in hierarchical models?

November 8, 2015
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You won’t believe these stunning transformations:  How to parameterize hyperpriors in hierarchical models?

Isaac Armstrong writes: I was working through your textbook “Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models” but wanted to learn more and started working through your “Bayesian Data Analysis” text. I’ve got a few questions about your rat tumor example that I’d like to ask. I’ve been trying to understand one of the hierarchical models […] The post You won’t believe these stunning transformations: How to parameterize hyperpriors in hierarchical…

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3 new priors you can’t do without, for coefficients and variance parameters in multilevel regression

November 8, 2015
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Partha Lahiri writes, in reference to my 2006 paper: I am interested in finding out a good prior for the regression coefficients and variance components in a multi-level setting. For concreteness, let’s say we have a model like the following: Level 1: Y_ijk | theta_ij ~(ind) N( theta_ij, sigma^2) Level 2: theta_ij| mu_i ~(ind) N( […] The post 3 new priors you can’t do without, for coefficients and variance parameters…

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Not So Standard Deviations: Episode 4 – A Gajillion Time Series

November 7, 2015
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Episode 4 of Not So Standard Deviations is hot off the audio editor. In this episode Hilary first explains to me what heck is DevOps and then we talk about the statistical challenges in detecting rare events in an enormous set of time series data. There's also some discussion of Ben and Jerry's and the

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This is a workshop you can’t miss: DataMeetsViz

November 7, 2015
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This is a workshop you can’t miss:  DataMeetsViz

This looks like it was a great conference with an all-star lineup of speakers. You can click through and see the talks. The post This is a workshop you can’t miss: DataMeetsViz appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Soc...

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More on stepped wedge

November 7, 2015
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A couple of months back I talked at the launch of the Trial series on the Stepped Wedge Designed, on which I have worked together with a number of colleagues at UCL and LSHTM. Jennifer, who's one of the authors of the series and is doing her ...

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Milano 2

November 7, 2015
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I'm not talking about this, but rather the curious, I'd say, coincidence that brings me to Milan for the second time in a matter of 4/5 months for a health economics conference. Back in July, I went to iHEA, which, by and large, was a very good confere...

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What happened to mortality among 45-54-year-old white non-Hispanics? It declined from 1989 to 1999, increased from 1999 to 2005, and held steady after that.

November 7, 2015
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What happened to mortality among 45-54-year-old white non-Hispanics?  It declined from 1989 to 1999, increased from 1999 to 2005, and held steady after that.

The raw death rates for the group (which appeared in the Case-Deaton paper) are in red, and the age-adjusted death rates (weighting each year of age equally) are in black. So . . . the age-adjusted mortality in this group increased by 5% from 1999 to 2005 and has held steady thereafter. But if you […] The post What happened to mortality among 45-54-year-old white non-Hispanics? It declined from 1989…

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Age adjustment mortality update

November 6, 2015
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Age adjustment mortality update

Earlier today I discussed a paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton in which they noted an increase in mortality rates among non-Hispanic white Americans from 1989 to 2013, a pattern that stood in sharp contrast to a decrease in several other rich countries and among U.S. Hispanics as well: Interpretation of this graph is […] The post Age adjustment mortality update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Conference on Bond Markets and Yield Curve Modeling

November 6, 2015
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Fantastic job by Bank of Canada and FRBSF. Kudos to both for successfully assembling such talent.    It's just ending as I write.  It was all good, but the papers/discussants that resonated most with me were:Session 4: Predicti...

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Complexity in Economics: Big Data and Parallelization

November 6, 2015
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Good conference in Switzerland. I was not there, but my colleague Frank Schorfheide sends glowing reports. For my tastes/interests at the moment, I am most intrigued by titles like:Davide Pettenuzzo, Brandeis UniversityBayesian Compressed Vector Autore...

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How I decide when to trust an R package

November 6, 2015
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How I decide when to trust an R package

One thing that I've given a lot of thought to recently is the process that I use to decide whether I trust an R package or not. Kasper Hansen took a break from trolling me on Twitter to talk about how he trusts packages on Github less than packages that are on CRAN and particularly Bioconductor.

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Correcting statistical biases in “Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century”: We need to adjust for the increase in average age of people in the 45-54 category

November 6, 2015
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Correcting statistical biases in “Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century”:  We need to adjust for the increase in average age of people in the 45-54 category

In a much-noticed paper, Anne Case and Angus Deaton write: This paper documents a marked increase in the all-cause mortality of middle-aged white non-Hispanic men and women in the United States between 1999 and 2013. This change reversed decades of progress in mortality and was unique to the United States; no other rich country saw […] The post Correcting statistical biases in “Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white…

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4 for 4.0 — The Latest JAGS

November 6, 2015
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This post is by Bob Carpenter. I just saw over on Martyn Plummer’s JAGS News blog that JAGS 4.0 is out. Martyn provided a series of blog posts highlighting the new features: 1. Reproducibility: Examples will now be fully reproducible draw-for-draw and chain-for-chain with the same seed. (Of course, compiler, optimization level, platform, CPU, and […] The post 4 for 4.0 — The Latest JAGS appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Jobs at Monash University

November 6, 2015
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Jobs at Monash University

We have two new continuing positions currently being advertised in our department: for lecturer and senior lecturer. Details are on the Monash website. (For those in North America, a lecturer is equivalent to your assistant professor, and a senior lect...

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Jobs at Monash University

November 6, 2015
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Jobs at Monash University

We have two new continuing positions currently being advertised in our department: for lecturer and senior lecturer. Details are on the Monash website. (For those in North America, a lecturer is equivalent to your assistant professor, and a senior lecturer is equivalent to your associate professor. See the Wikipedia article on Australian academic ranks for […]

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S. McKinney: On Efron’s “Frequentist Accuracy of Bayesian Estimates” (Guest Post)

November 6, 2015
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S. McKinney: On Efron’s “Frequentist Accuracy of Bayesian Estimates” (Guest Post)

Steven McKinney, Ph.D. Statistician Molecular Oncology and Breast Cancer Program British Columbia Cancer Research Centre                      On Bradley Efron’s: “Frequentist Accuracy of Bayesian Estimates” Bradley Efron has produced another fine set of results, yielding a valuable estimate of variability for a Bayesian estimate derived from a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, in his latest paper […]

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A Bayesian Model to Calculate Whether My Wife is Pregnant or Not

November 6, 2015
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A Bayesian Model to Calculate Whether My Wife is Pregnant or Not

On the 21st of February, 2015, my wife had not had her period for 33 days, and as we were trying to conceive, this was good news! An average period is around a month, and if you are a couple trying to go triple, then a missing period is a good sign s...

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Why Retraction Watch remains necessary

November 5, 2015
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Why Retraction Watch remains necessary

A few months ago Psych Science issued a press release, “Blue and Seeing Blue: Sadness May Impair Color Perception,” promoting a fatally flawed paper that appeared in their journal. I heard about this paper from Nick Brown, and we slammed it on the blog. As I wrote at the time, I have nothing against the […] The post Why Retraction Watch remains necessary appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Econometrics: Instrument locally, extrapolate globally

November 5, 2015
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Rajeev Dehejia sends along two papers, one with James Bisbee, Cristian Pop-Eleches, and Cyrus Samii on extrapolating estimated local average treatment effects to new settings, and one with Cristian Pop-Eleches and Cyrus Samii on external validity in na...

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VIS Proceedings now in the January Issue of TVCG

November 5, 2015
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VIS Proceedings now in the January Issue of TVCG

There has been a change in the way papers presented at IEEE VIS are published in the TVCG journal. It used to be the last issue of the year, but starting in 2015, it’s now the January issue of the next year. So all VIS 2015 papers have a publication date of 2016. This change has not … Continue reading VIS Proceedings now in the January Issue of TVCG

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Hey—looky here! This business wants to hire a Stan expert for decision making.

November 4, 2015
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Hey—looky here!  This business wants to hire a Stan expert for decision making.

Kevin Van Horn writes: I currently work in a business analytics group at Symantec, and we have several positions to fill. I’d like at least one of those positions to be filled by someone who understands Bayesian modeling and is comfortable using R (or Python) and Stan (or other MCMC tools). The team’s purpose is […] The post Hey—looky here! This business wants to hire a Stan expert for decision…

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Potato Chips and ANOVA in Analytical Chemistry – Part 1: Formatting Data in JMP

Potato Chips and ANOVA in Analytical Chemistry – Part 1: Formatting Data in JMP

I am very excited to write again for the official JMP blog as a guest blogger!  Today, the first article of a 2-part series has been published, and it is called “Potato Chips and ANOVA in Analytical Chemistry – Part 1: Formatting Data in JMP“.  This series of blog posts will talk about analysis of […]

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Skin in the game for observational studies

November 4, 2015
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The article Deming, data and observational studies by S. Stanley Young and Alan Karr opens with Any claim coming from an observational study is most likely to be wrong. They back up this assertion with data about observational studies later contradicted by prospective studies. Much has been said lately about the assertion that most published results are false, particularly […]

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