Communicating Risk at the Bay Area R User Group

May 26, 2015
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Communicating Risk at the Bay Area R User Group

I will be speaking at the Bay Area User Group meeting tonight about Communicating Risk. Anthony Goldbloom from Kaggle and Karim Chine from ElasticR will be there as well. The meeting will be at Microsoft in Mountain View.Later this week I will give a s...

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Paper: An Evaluation of the Impact of Visual Embellishments in Bar Charts

May 26, 2015
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Paper: An Evaluation of the Impact of Visual Embellishments in Bar Charts

Information graphics often use variations and embellishments of standard charts that may distort the way people read the data. But how bad are these distortions really? In a paper to be presented at EuroVis this week, Drew Skau, Lane Harrison, and I tested their effects in an experiment. Based on a survey of common infographics … Continue reading Paper: An Evaluation of the Impact of Visual Embellishments in Bar Charts

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R and Data Mining workshop at Deakin University

May 25, 2015
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R and Data Mining workshop at Deakin University

I will run a workshop on R and Data Mining for students in the Master of Business Analytics course at Deakin University in Melbourne on Thursday 28 May. The workshop will cover: – Introduction to Data Mining with R and … Continue reading →

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An inundation of significance tests

May 25, 2015
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An inundation of significance tests

Jan Vanhove writes: The last three research papers I’ve read contained 51, 49 and 70 significance tests (counting conservatively), and to the extent that I’m able to see the forest for the trees, mostly poorly motivated ones. I wonder what the motivation behind this deluge of tests is. Is it wanton obfuscation (seems unlikely), a […] The post An inundation of significance tests appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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On deck this week

May 25, 2015
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Mon: An inundation of significance tests Tues: Stock, flow, and two smoking regressions Wed: What’s the worst joke you’ve ever heard? Thurs: Cracked.com > Huffington Post, Wall Street Journal, New York Times Fri: Measurement is part of design Sat: “17 Baby Names You Didn’t Know Were Totally Made Up” Sun: What to do to train […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Big Data in Action

May 25, 2015
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Big Data in Action

Not long ago in Official Statistics the topic ‘Big Data’ was mostly discussed in a theoretical manner. https://blogstats.wordpress.com/2014/01/25/big-data-events/ However, now …Continue reading →

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Paper Helicopter experiment, part II

May 25, 2015
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Paper Helicopter experiment, part II

Last week I created a JAGS model combining data from two paper helicopter datasets. This week, I will use the model to find the longest flying one.PredictingThe JAGS/RJAGS system has no predict() function that I know of. What I therefore did is adapt t...

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From our “Philosophy of Statistics” session: APS 2015 convention

May 25, 2015
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From our “Philosophy of Statistics” session: APS 2015 convention

“The Philosophy of Statistics: Bayesianism, Frequentism and the Nature of Inference,” at the 2015 American Psychological Society (APS) Annual Convention in NYC, May 23, 2015:   D. Mayo: “Error Statistical Control: Forfeit at your Peril”    S. Senn: “‘Repligate’: reproducibility in statistical studies. What does it mean and in what sense does it matter?”   […]

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another viral math puzzle

May 24, 2015
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another viral math puzzle

After the Singapore Maths Olympiad birthday problem that went viral, here is a Vietnamese primary school puzzle that made the frontline in The Guardian. The question is: Fill the empty slots with all integers from 1 to 9 for the equality to hold. In other words, find a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h,i such that a+13xb:c+d+12xe–f-11+gxh:i-10=66. With presumably the operation […]

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Review of ‘Advanced R’ by Hadley Wickham

May 24, 2015
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Review of ‘Advanced R’ by Hadley Wickham

Executive summary Surprisingly good. And it’s not like my expectations were especially low. Structure There are 20 chapters.  I mostly like the chapters and their order. Hadley breaks the 20 chapters into 4 parts.  He’s wrong.  Figure 1 illustrates the correct way to formulate parts. Figure 1: Chapters and Parts of Advanced R.    Introductory R There […] The post Review of ‘Advanced R’ by Hadley Wickham appeared first on Burns Statistics.

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John Nash, 1928 – 2015

May 24, 2015
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John Nash, 1928 – 2015

John & Alicia NashTragically, John and Alicia Nash died as the result of a road accident on New Jersey yesterday.Just days previously, Nash was the co-recipient of the 2015 Abel Prize for his contributions to the theory of nonlinear parti...

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Chess + statistics + plagiarism, again!

May 24, 2015
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Chess + statistics + plagiarism, again!

In response to this post (in which I noted that the Elo chess rating system is a static model which, paradoxically, is used to for the purposes of studying changes), Keith Knight writes: It’s notable that Glickman’s work is related to some research by Harry Joe at UBC, which in turn was inspired by data […] The post Chess + statistics + plagiarism, again! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Any P-Value Distinguishable from Zero is Insufficiently Informative

May 23, 2015
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Any P-Value Distinguishable from Zero is Insufficiently Informative

\[ \newcommand{\Prob}[1]{\mathbb{P}\left( #1 \right)} \newcommand{\Probwrt}[2]{\mathbb{P}_{#1}\left( #2 \right)} \newcommand{\Var}[1]{\mathrm{Var}\left[ #1 \right]} \] Attention conservation notice: 4900+ words, plus two (ugly) pictures and many equations, on a common mis-understanding in statistics. Veers wildly between baby stats. and advanced probability theory, without explaining either. Its efficacy at remedying the confusion it attacks has not been evaluated by a randomized controlled trial. After ten years of teaching statistics, I feel pretty confident in saying…

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My favorite R bug

May 23, 2015
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In this note am going to recount “my favorite R bug.” It isn’t a bug in R. It is a bug in some code I wrote in R. I call it my favorite bug, as it is easy to commit and (thanks to R’s overly helpful nature) takes longer than it should to find. ...

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Kaiser’s beef

May 23, 2015
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Kaiser’s beef

The Numbersense guy writes in: Have you seen this? It has one of your pet peeves… let’s draw some data-driven line in the categorical variable and show significance. To make it worse, he adds a final paragraph saying essentially this is just a silly exercise that I hastily put together and don’t take it seriously! […] The post Kaiser’s beef appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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No Hesitations is Not a Phishing Site!

May 23, 2015
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Google's "automatic system" a few days ago "determined" that No Hesitations (fxdiebold.blogspot.com) was a phishing site. (Phishing sites attempt to scam users into revealing credit card numbers, etc. No Hesitations is not a phishing site! Indeed ...

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Parametric Inference: Likelihood Ratio Test Problem 2

May 23, 2015
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Parametric Inference: Likelihood Ratio Test Problem 2

More on Likelihood Ratio Test, the following problem is originally from Casella and Berger (2001), exercise 8.12.ProblemFor samples of size $n=1,4,16,64,100$ from a normal population with mean $\mu$ and known variance $\sigma^2$, plot the power functio...

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Maximum Likelihood Estimation & Inequality Constraints

May 23, 2015
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Maximum Likelihood Estimation & Inequality Constraints

This post is prompted by a question raised by Irfan, one of this blog's readers, in some email correspondence with me a while back.The question was to do with imposing inequality constraints on the parameter estimates when applying maximum likelihood e...

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Simulation-based power analysis using proportional odds logistic regression

May 22, 2015
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Simulation-based power analysis using proportional odds logistic regression

Consider planning a clinicial trial where patients are randomized in permuted blocks of size four to either a 'control' or 'treatment' group. The outcome is measured on an 11-point ordinal scale (e.g., the numerical rating scale for pain). It may be reasonable to evaluate the results of this trial using a proportional odds cumulative logit … Continue reading Simulation-based power analysis using proportional odds logistic regression →

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R Now Contains 150 Times as Many Commands as SAS

May 22, 2015
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R Now Contains 150 Times as Many Commands as SAS

by Bob Muenchen In my ongoing quest to analyze the world of analytics, I’ve updated the Growth in Capability section of The Popularity of Data Analysis Software. To save you the trouble of foraging through that tome, I’ve pasted it below. … Continue reading →

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John Lott as possible template for future career of “Bruno” Lacour

May 22, 2015
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John Lott as possible template for future career of “Bruno” Lacour

The recent story about the retracted paper on political persuasion reminded me of the last time that a politically loaded survey was discredited because the researcher couldn’t come up with the data. I’m referring to John Lott, the “economist, political commentator, and gun rights advocate” (in the words of Wikipedia) who is perhaps more well […] The post John Lott as possible template for future career of “Bruno” Lacour appeared…

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Should I tell students that the maximum score in the class is 137?

May 22, 2015
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This op-ed by Richard Thaler caught my attention because I have a similar experience. In my statistics classes, I have noticed a pattern: if the mid-term exam is hard, with a lower average score (say 75-80%), the students look crestfallen and feel that they did not learn; eventually, when it comes to evaluating the instructor, I receive lower grades, with comments indicating that I have not taught them properly to…

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Creativity is the ability to see relationships where none exist

May 22, 2015
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Creativity is the ability to see relationships where none exist

Brent Goldfarb and Andrew King, in a paper to appear in the journal Strategic Management, write: In a recent issue of this journal, Bettis (2012) reports a conversation with a graduate student who forthrightly announced that he had been trained by faculty to “search for asterisks”. The student explained that he sifted through large databases […] The post Creativity is the ability to see relationships where none exist appeared first…

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