Statistical modelling and analysis of big data

February 22, 2015
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Statistical modelling and analysis of big data

I’m currently attending the one day workshop on this topic at QUT in Brisbane. This morning I spoke on “Visualizing and forecasting big time series data”. My slides are here. The talks are being streamed. OVERVIEW Big data is now endemic in business, industry, government, environmental management, medical science, social research and so on. One […]

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Philip K. Dick (2) vs. Jean Baudrillard

February 22, 2015
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Philip K. Dick (2) vs. Jean Baudrillard

For yesterday, I was gonna go with Vincent, based on X’s comment: In addition to his unique painting style and very special life, van Gogh was highly literate, as shown through the 844 letters from him that are available today. X also made a missing-body-part joke, which I generally don’t think is so cool but, […] The post Philip K. Dick (2) vs. Jean Baudrillard appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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“Academics should be made accountable for exaggerations in press releases about their own work”

February 22, 2015
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Fernando Martel Garcia points me to this news article by Ben Goldacre: For anyone with medical training, mainstream media coverage of science can be an uncomfortable read. It is common to find correlational findings misrepresented as denoting causation, for example, or findings in animal studies confidently exaggerated to make claims about treatment for humans. But […] The post “Academics should be made accountable for exaggerations in press releases about their…

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Priors on odds and probability of success

February 22, 2015
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Priors on odds and probability of success

In Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation (David J. Spiegelhalter, Keith R. Abrams, Jonathan P. Myles) they mention that an non informative prior should be uniform over the range of interest. They combine this with the d...

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Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Saturday night comedy (b)

February 22, 2015
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Sir Harold Jeffreys’ (tail area) one-liner: Saturday night comedy (b)

This headliner appeared before, but to a sparse audience, so Management’s giving him another chance… His joke relates to both Senn’s post (about alternatives), and to my recent post about using (1 – β)/α as a likelihood ratio--but for very different reasons. (I’ve explained at the bottom of this “(b) draft”.)  ….If you look closely, you’ll see that it’s […]

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Vincent van Gogh (3) vs. Grandma Moses

February 21, 2015
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Vincent van Gogh (3) vs. Grandma Moses

In yesterday‘s battle of the religions, the strongest argument against Mother Teresa was given by Paul, who related that she was friends with all sorts of nasty politicians and that she’s been accused of spending money that came from questionable sources. But if that’s all you can say about her, it won’t cut much ice […] The post Vincent van Gogh (3) vs. Grandma Moses appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Bayes and doomsday

February 21, 2015
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Ben O’Neill writes: I am a fellow Bayesian statistician at the University of New South Wales (Australia).  I have enjoyed reading your various books and articles, and enjoyed reading your recent article on The Perceived Absurdity of Bayesian Inference.  However, I disagree with your assertion that the “doomsday argument” is non-Bayesian; I think if you read […] The post Bayes and doomsday appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Useful for referring—02-20-2015

February 20, 2015
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Useful for referring—02-20-2015

  Deep Learning Master Class Advances in Variational Inference Numerical Optimization: Understanding L-BFGS An exact mapping between the Variational Renormalization Group and Deep Learning New ASA Guidelines for Undergraduate Statistics Programs 奇异值分解(We Recommend a Singular Value Decomposition) 如何简单形象又有趣地讲解神经网络是什么? Academic vs. Industry Careers Hadley Wickham: Impact the world by being useful Statisticians in World War II: […]

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Useful for referring—02-20-2015

February 20, 2015
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Useful for referring—02-20-2015

  Deep Learning Master Class Advances in Variational Inference Numerical Optimization: Understanding L-BFGS An exact mapping between the Variational Renormalization Group and Deep Learning New ASA Guidelines for Undergraduate Statistics Programs 奇异值分解(We Recommend a Singular Value Decomposition) 如何简单形象又有趣地讲解神经网络是什么? Academic vs. Industry Careers Hadley Wickham: Impact the world by being useful Statisticians in World War II: […]

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The bracket so far

February 20, 2015
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The bracket so far

Thanks to the Excel stylings of Paul Davidson: Our competition is (approximately) 1/4 done! And I’ve been thinking about possible categories for next year’s tourney: New Jersey politicians Articulate athletes Plagiarists People named Greg or Gregg Vladimir Nabokov and people connected to him . . . Ummm, we need 3 more categories. Any suggestions? Real […] The post The bracket so far appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Mother Teresa (4) vs. Sun Myung Moon

February 20, 2015
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Mother Teresa (4) vs. Sun Myung Moon

For yesterday, I’ll have to go with Gandhi, the original badass of nonviolence. Zbicyclist found this quote, “He propagated that . . . we should take only that which is required, in minimum quantity. We should not eat to appease our taste buds,” which implies that Gandhi shouldn’t pick the caterer—but that’s not an issue, […] The post Mother Teresa (4) vs. Sun Myung Moon appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Statistical Significance – Significant Problem?

February 20, 2015
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John Carlin, who’s collaborated on some of my recent work on Type S and Type M errors, prepared this presentation for a clinical audience. It might be of interest to some of you. The ideas and some of the examples should be familiar to regular readers of this blog, but it could be useful to […] The post Statistical Significance – Significant Problem? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Applied Nonparametric Econometrics

February 19, 2015
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Applied Nonparametric Econometrics

Recently, I received a copy of a new econometrics book, Applied Nonparametric Econometrics, by Daniel Henderson and Christopher Parmeter.The title is pretty self-explanatory and, as you'd expect with any book published by CUP, this is a high-quali...

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Stephen Senn: Fisher’s Alternative to the Alternative

February 19, 2015
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Stephen Senn: Fisher’s Alternative to the Alternative

As part of the week of recognizing R.A.Fisher (February 17, 1890 – July 29, 1962), I reblog Senn from 3 years ago.   ‘Fisher’s alternative to the alternative’ By: Stephen Senn [2012 marked] the 50th anniversary of RA Fisher’s death. It is a good excuse, I think, to draw attention to an aspect of his philosophy of […]

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Mohandas Gandhi (1) vs. Stanley Kubrick

February 19, 2015
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Mohandas Gandhi (1) vs. Stanley Kubrick

Yesterday‘s competition is a toughie. If it were up to me, I think I’d have to go with Jesus. Here’s why: I’d come into the seminar with lots of resistance, like, c’mon, Jesus, I totally don’t believe the hype. As Hernan put it in comments: Jesus spoke in parables to avoid committing to a specific […] The post Mohandas Gandhi (1) vs. Stanley Kubrick appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Another example of why centering predictors can be good idea

February 19, 2015
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Another example of why centering predictors can be good idea

Andrew Dolman writes: Just in case you need another example of why it is important to consider what the intercepts in a model represent, here is a short comment I [Dolman] just got published correcting a misinterpretation of a simple linear model, that would not have happened if they had centered their predictor around a […] The post Another example of why centering predictors can be good idea appeared first…

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amazing Gibbs sampler

February 18, 2015
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amazing Gibbs sampler

When playing with Peter Rossi’s bayesm R package during a visit of Jean-Michel Marin to Paris, last week, we came up with the above Gibbs outcome. The setting is a Gaussian mixture model with three components in dimension 5 and the prior distributions are standard conjugate. In this case, with 500 observations and 5000 Gibbs […]

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Making an app as a Valentine’s day gift

February 18, 2015
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Making an app as a Valentine’s day gift

For the past year, my girlfriend, Priya has been working on an awesome nonprofit called Tulalens. The idea is to be “yelp for low-income people in emerging markets”. She did a pilot in October/November 2014 where she and the Tulalens team went in...

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Anyone still remember Groupon?

February 18, 2015
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Anyone still remember Groupon?

I just did a guest lecture at a New School journalism class. While preparing for the class, I pulled the sad stock chart for GRPN (Groupon): If you bought the hype in 2011, you'd have lost 70% of your investment ($25 to $7). Given what we know today, it's hard for people to feel the hype that the media helped fuel in those days. As a reminder, here is the…

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Jesus (1) vs. Leo Tolstoy

February 18, 2015
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Jesus (1) vs. Leo Tolstoy

For yesterday we’ll have to go with Hobbes. As Zbicyclist put it: “A seminar that promises to be nasty, brutish — and short!” Jonathan put the anti-David argument well: “If there were ever someone who would try to bullshit his way through a seminar, it’s Larry David. Unprepared (with some excuse of course) and a […] The post Jesus (1) vs. Leo Tolstoy appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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And the Rest…….

February 18, 2015
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And the Rest…….

Happy to make the cut! Thanks Noah, and BloombergView.© 2015, David E. Giles

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Philippine Infographic: Recapitulation on Incidents Involving Motorcycle Riding in Tandem Criminals for 2011-2013

February 18, 2015
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Philippine Infographic: Recapitulation on Incidents Involving Motorcycle Riding in Tandem Criminals for 2011-2013

The Philippine government has launched Open Data Philippines (data.gov.ph) last year, January 16, 2014. Accordingly, the data.gov.ph aims to make national government data searchable, accessible, and useful, with the help of the different agencies of go...

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Link: Joint Committee on Standards for Graphic Presentation (1915)

February 18, 2015
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An article in the Publications of the American Statistical Association by the Joint Committee on Standards for Graphic Presentation laid down some standards for how to create good data visualizations. In 1915. The chairman of that committee was none other than Willard C. Brinton, author of the highly opinionated (and much more complete) Graphic Methods for Presenting Facts. Andy … Continue reading Link: Joint Committee on Standards for Graphic Presentation (1915)

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