## Data is the next frontier of equal rights

October 3, 2016
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When I rented my first apartment in the U.S., there were two things about American society that left an impression. It was super easy to get credit. My parents had the foresight of making sure we build up a credit history while in college, which helped. But, from setting up cable TV to signing a rental lease, these businesses showed a lot of trust to someone who was earning a…

## Let PROC FREQ create graphs of your two-way tables

October 3, 2016
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The recent releases of SAS 9.4 have featured major enhancements to the ODS statistical graphics procedures such as PROC SGPLOT. In fact, PROC SGPLOT (and the underlying Graph Template Language (GTL)) are so versatile and powerful that you might forget to consider whether you can create a graph automatically by […] The post Let PROC FREQ create graphs of your two-way tables appeared first on The DO Loop.

## Information and VC Investing

October 3, 2016
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Sam Lessin at The Information has a nice post (sorry, paywall, but it’s a great publication) about how increased measurement and analysis is changing the nature of venture capital investing. This brings me back to what is happening at series A fi...

## papr – it’s like tinder, but for academic preprints

October 3, 2016
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As part of the Johns Hopkins Data Science Lab we are setting up a web and mobile data product prototyping shop. As part of that process I’ve been working on different types of very cheap and easy to prototype apps. A few days ago I posted about creat...

## Machine Learning vs. Econometrics, I

October 2, 2016
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[If you're reading this in email, remember to click through on the title to get the math to render.]Machine learning (ML) is almost always centered on prediction; think "$$\hat{y}$$".   Econometrics (E) is often, but not always, centered on predic...

## Proofing statistics in papers

October 2, 2016
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Recently saw a really fun article making the rounds: “The prevalence of statistical reporting errors in psychology (1985–2013)”, Nuijten, M.B., Hartgerink, C.H.J., van Assen, M.A.L.M. et al., Behav Res (2015), doi:10.3758/s13428-015-0664-2. The authors built an R package to check psychology papers for statistical errors. Please read on for how that is possible, some tools, and … Continue reading Proofing statistics in papers

## Some Suggested Reading for October

October 2, 2016
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For your enjoyment:Diebold, F. X. & M. Shin, 2016. Assessing point forecast accuracy by stochastic error distance. NBER Working Paper No.2516.Franses, P.H., 2016. Yet another look at MIDAS regression. Econometric Institute Report 2016-32.Hillier, G...

## Astroturf “patient advocacy” group pushes to keep drug prices high

October 2, 2016
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Susan Perry tells the story: Patients Rising, [reporter Trudy Lieberman] reports, was founded by Jonathan Wilcox, a corporate communications and public relations consultant and adjunct professor at USC’s Annenberg School of Communications and his wife, Terry, a producer of oncology videos. . . . Both Wilcox and his wife had worked with Vital Options International, […] The post Astroturf “patient advocacy” group pushes to keep drug prices high appeared first…

## approximate lasso

October 2, 2016
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Here is a representation of the precision of a kernel density estimate (second axis) against the true value of the density (first axis), which looks like a lasso of sorts, hence the title. I am not sure this tells much, except that the estimated values are close to the true values and that a given […]

## Handy Statistical Lexicon — in Japanese!

October 2, 2016
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So, one day I get this email from Kentaro Matsuura: Dear Professor Andrew Gelman, I’m a Japanese Stan user and write a blog to promote Stan. (and translator of https://github.com/stan-dev/rstan/wiki/RStan-Getting-Started-(Japanese)) I believe your post on “Handy statistical lexicon (http://andrewgelman.com/2009/05/24/handy_statistic/)” is so great that I’d like to translate and spread the post in my blog. Could […] The post Handy Statistical Lexicon — in Japanese! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## Don’t trust Rasmussen polls!

October 1, 2016
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Political scientist Alan Abramowitz brings us some news about the notorious pollster: In the past 12 months, according to Real Clear Politics, there have been 72 national polls matching Clinton with Trump—16 polls conducted by Fox News or Rasmussen and 56 polls conducted by other polling organizations. Here are the results: Trump has led or […] The post Don’t trust Rasmussen polls! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## A Decade of EagerEyes

October 1, 2016
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So here we are. 10 years. A decade. 3653 days. 452 postings. Some good stuff. Some bad stuff. Some terrible stuff. A decade is a long time. But its end is also just the beginning of the next one. Now that I’ve shed the blog theme, I can see a number of things that need to be […]

## Not So Standard Deviations Episode 23 – Special Guest Walt Hickey

October 1, 2016
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Hilary and Roger invite Walt Hickey of FiveThirtyEight.com on to the show to talk about polling, movies, and data analysis reproducibility (of course). If you have questions you’d like us to answer, you can send them to nssdeviations @ gmail.com or ...

## Why the garden-of-forking-paths criticism of p-values is not like a famous Borscht Belt comedy bit

September 30, 2016
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People point me to things on the internet that they’re sure I’ll hate. I read one of these awhile ago—unfortunately I can’t remember who wrote it or where it appeared, but it raised a criticism, not specifically of me, I believe, but more generally of skeptics such as Uri Simonsohn and myself who keep bringing […] The post Why the garden-of-forking-paths criticism of p-values is not like a famous Borscht…

## The EagerEyes Origin Story

September 30, 2016
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Have you ever wondered where the weird name comes from, what the site was like before it was a blog, and how it all got started? This posting has all the answers. The Name I had been thinking about starting a website for a bit (in addition to my existing kosara.net site, which I had had since 2000). […]

## R+H2O for marketing campaign modeling

September 30, 2016
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My last post about telco churn prediction with R+H2O attracted unexpectedly high response. It seems that R+H2O combo has currently a very good momentum :). Therefore Wit Jakuczun decided to publish a case study that he uses in his R boot camps tha...

## R+H2O for marketing campaign modeling

September 30, 2016
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My last post about telco churn prediction with R+H2O attracted unexpectedly high response. It seems that R+H2O combo has currently a very good momentum :). Therefore Wit Jakuczun decided to publish a case study that he uses in his R boot camps tha...

## NPR’s gonna NPR

September 29, 2016
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I was gonna give this post the title, Stat Rage More Severe in the Presence of First-Class Journals, but then I thought I’d keep it simple. Chapter 1. Background OK, here’s what happened. A couple weeks ago someone pointed me to a low-quality paper that appeared in PPNAS (the prestigious Proceedings of the National Academy […] The post NPR’s gonna NPR appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

## Don’t move Penn Station

September 29, 2016
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I agree 100% with Henry Grabar on this one. Ever since I heard many years ago about the plan to blog a few billion dollars moving NYC’s Penn Station to a prettier but less convenient location, I’ve grimaced. Big shots really love to spend our money on fancy architecture, don’t they? As I wrote a […] The post Don’t move Penn Station appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## If you are practicing your power pose, stop now

September 29, 2016
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Andrew and I warned you about "power poses" in Slate some time ago (link). Breaking news is that Dana Carney, a co-author of the paper that claimed the benefits of the power pose, has now confirmed that she no longer believes in the power pose. She is actively discouraging researchers from this "waste of time and resources." Here is her statement (PDF link), which is well worth reading in full.…

## Why I Do This

September 29, 2016
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Why spend countless hours writing a blog like this? What do I get out of it? What do I hope to accomplish? What is the purpose? To Get Information Out This is really the biggest thing. No normal person is ever going to read a research paper. They don't know they exist, they don't know […]

## Reflections about our first Open-Science-Committee’s meeting

September 29, 2016
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Yesterday, we had the first meeting of our department’s Open Science Committee. I am happy that the committee has 20 members, representing every research unit of the department, and all groups from PhD students to full professors. In the meeting, I f...

## A voluntary commitment to research transparency

September 29, 2016
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The Reproducibility Project: Psychology was published last week, and it was another blow to the overall credibility of the current research system’s output. Some interpretations of the results were in a “Hey, it’s all fine; nothing to...

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