Smooth poll aggregation using state-space modeling in Stan, from Jim Savage

August 6, 2016
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Smooth poll aggregation using state-space modeling in Stan, from Jim Savage

Jim Savage writes: I just saw your post on poll bounces; have been thinking the same myself. Why are the poll aggregators so jumpy about new polls? Annoyed, I put together a poll aggregator that took a state-space approach to the unobserved preferences; nothing more than the 8 schools (14 polls?) example with a time-varying […] The post Smooth poll aggregation using state-space modeling in Stan, from Jim Savage appeared…

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“What can recent replication failures tell us about the theoretical commitments of psychology?”

August 6, 2016
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“What can recent replication failures tell us about the theoretical commitments of psychology?”

Psychology/philosophy professor Stan Klein was motivated by our power pose discussion to send along this article which seems to me to be a worthy entry in what I’ve lately been calling “the literature of exasperation,” following in the tradition of Meehl etc. I offer one minor correction. Klein writes, “I have no doubt that the […] The post “What can recent replication failures tell us about the theoretical commitments of…

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Yet the Worst Olympic Chart

August 6, 2016
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Yet the Worst Olympic Chart

Ah, the numbers! The Olympic Games are back in high style in Rio. Despite Brazil’s sluggish economy and unfulfilled promises for this Summer Olympic Games, I’d say, my expectations were met yesterday with such a beautiful opening ceremony. Let’s ...

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Don’t believe the bounce

August 5, 2016
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Don’t believe the bounce

Alan Abramowitz sent us the above graph, which shows the results from a series of recent national polls, for each plotting Hillary Clinton’s margin in support (that is, Clinton minus Trump in the vote-intention question) vs. the Democratic Party’s advantage in party identification (that is, percentage Democrat minus percentage Republican). This is about as clear […] The post Don’t believe the bounce appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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The p-value is a random variable

August 5, 2016
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Sam Behseta sends along this paper by Laura Lazzeroni, Ying Lu, and Ilana Belitskaya-Lévy, who write: P values from identical experiments can differ greatly in a way that is surprising to many. The failure to appreciate this wide variability can lead researchers to expect, without adequate justification, that statistically significant findings will be replicated, only […] The post The p-value is a random variable appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Guy Fieri wants your help! For a TV show on statistical models for real estate

August 4, 2016
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Guy Fieri wants your help!  For a TV show on statistical models for real estate

I got the following email from David Mulholland: I’m a producer at Citizen Pictures where we produce Food Network’s “Diners, Dives and Drive-Ins” and Bravo’s digital series, “Going Off The Menu,” among others. A major network is working with us to develop a show that pits “data” against a traditional real estate agent to see […] The post Guy Fieri wants your help! For a TV show on statistical models…

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Various ways of showing distributions

August 4, 2016
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Various ways of showing distributions

The other day, a chart about the age distribution of Olympic athletes caught my attention. I found the chart on Google but didn't bookmark it and now I couldn't retrieve it. From my mind's eye, the chart looks like this:...

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Amazon NYC decision analysis jobs

August 3, 2016
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Dean Foster writes: Amazon is having a hiring event (Sept 8/9) here in NYC. If you are interested in working on demand forecasting either here in NYC or in Seattle send your resume to rcariapp@amazon.com by September 1st, 2016. Here’s the longer blurb: Amazon Supply Chain Optimization Technologies (SCOT) builds systems that automate decisions in […] The post Amazon NYC decision analysis jobs appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Disrupting Dissemination – From Print to Bots

August 3, 2016
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Disrupting Dissemination – From Print to Bots

Digitally disrupted data production “The collection of statistics has been digitally disrupted, along with everything else, and there are important questions about collection methods and whether or not “big data” genuinely offers promise for a giant leap forward in the productivity of official statistics.” This statement in Financial Times’ edition of August 20th, 2015 deals … Continue reading Disrupting Dissemination – From Print to Bots

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In policing (and elsewhere), regional variation in behavior can be huge, and perhaps give a clue about how to move forward.

August 3, 2016
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Rajiv Sethi points to a discussion of Peter Moskos on the recent controversy over racial bias in police shootings. Here’s Sethi: Moskos is not arguing here that the police can do no wrong; he is arguing instead that in the aggregate, whites and blacks are about equally likely to be victims of bad shootings. . […] The post In policing (and elsewhere), regional variation in behavior can be huge, and…

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Video: Writing packages: A new way to distribute and use SAS/IML programs

August 3, 2016
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Video: Writing packages: A new way to distribute and use SAS/IML programs

My presentation at SAS Global Forum 2016 was titled "Writing Packages: A New Way to Distribute and Use SAS/IML Programs." The paper was published in the conference proceedings several months ago, but I recently recorded a short video that gives an overview of using and creating packages in SAS/IML 14.1: […] The post Video: Writing packages: A new way to distribute and use SAS/IML programs appeared first on The DO…

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My next 170 blog posts (inbox zero and a change of pace)

August 2, 2016
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My next 170 blog posts (inbox zero and a change of pace)

I’ve successfully emptied my inbox: And one result was to fill up the blog through mid-January. I think I’ve been doing enough blogging recently, so my plan now is to stop for awhile and instead transfer my writing energy into articles and books. We’ll see how it goes. Just to give you something to look […] The post My next 170 blog posts (inbox zero and a change of pace)…

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All maps of parameter estimates remain misleading

August 2, 2016
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All maps of parameter estimates remain misleading

Roland Rau writes: After many years of applying frequentist statistical methods in mortality research, I just began to learn about the application of Bayesian methods in demography. Since I also wanted to change a part of my research focus on spatial models, I discovered your 1999 paper with Phil Price, All maps of parameter estimates […] The post All maps of parameter estimates remain misleading appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Seminar: Data Mining for Biosecurity Regulation, University of Canberra, Wednesday 10 Aug 2016

August 1, 2016
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Topic: Data Mining for Biosecurity Regulation Speaker: A/Prof. Andrew Robinson, Melbourne University When: 4:30pm-5:30pm, Wednesday 10 Aug 2016 Where: 9A1 (Building 9, Room A1), University of Canberra. See UC map at http://www.canberra.edu.au/maps/pdf-maps/UC-Bruce-Campus-Map.pdf RSVP: http://www.meetup.com/CanberraDataSci/events/233033578/ Abstract: The Department of Agriculture and … Continue reading →

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On the Superiority of Observed Information

August 1, 2016
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Earlier I claimed that "Efron-Hinkley holds up -- observed information dominates estimated expected information for finite-sample MLE inference." Several of you have asked for elaboration.The earlier post grew from a 6 AM Hong Kong breakfast conversat...

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A kangaroo, a feather, and a scale walk into Viktor Beekman’s office

August 1, 2016
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A kangaroo, a feather, and a scale walk into Viktor Beekman’s office

E. J. writes: I enjoyed your kangaroo analogy [see also here—ed.] and so I contacted a talented graphical artist—Viktor Beekman—to draw it. The drawing is on Flickr under a CC license. Thanks, Viktor and E.J.! The post A kangaroo, a...

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Compute highest density regions in SAS

August 1, 2016
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Compute highest density regions in SAS

In a scatter plot, the regions where observations are packed tightly are areas of high density. A contour plot or heat map of a bivariate kernel density estimate (KDE) is one way to visualize regions of high density. A SAS customer asked whether it is possible to use SAS to […] The post Compute highest density regions in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Stan 2.11 Good, Stan 2.10 Bad

July 31, 2016
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Stan 2.11 Good, Stan 2.10 Bad

Stan 2.11 is available for all interfaces We are happy to announce that all of the interfaces have been updated to Stan 2.11. There was a subtle bug introduced in 2.10 where a probabilistic acceptance condition was being checked twice. Sorry about that and thanks for your patience. We’ve added some additional tests to catch […] The post Stan 2.11 Good, Stan 2.10 Bad appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Even social scientists can think like pundits, unfortunately

July 31, 2016
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I regularly read the Orgtheory blog which has interesting perspectives from sociologists. Today I saw this, from Sean Safford: I [Safford] actually hold to the idea that the winning candidate for President is always the one who has a clearer view of the challenges and opportunities facing the country and articulates a viable roadmap for […] The post Even social scientists can think like pundits, unfortunately appeared first on Statistical…

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What recommendations to give when a medical study is not definitive (which of course will happen all the time, especially considering that new treatments should be compared to best available alternatives, which implies that most improvements will be incremental at best)

July 30, 2016
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Simon Gates writes: I thought you might be interested in a recently published clinical trial, for potential blog material. It picks up some themes that have cropped in recent months. Also, it is important for the way statistical methods influence what can be life or death decisions. The OPPTIMUM trial (http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)00350-0/abstract) evaluated use of vaginal progesterone […] The post What recommendations to give when a medical study is not definitive (which…

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A meta list of what to do at JSM 2016

July 30, 2016
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A meta list of what to do at JSM 2016

I’m going to be heading out tomorrow for JSM 2016. If you want to catch up I’ll be presenting in the 6-8PM poster session on The Extraordinary Power of Data on Sunday and on data visualization (and other things) in MOOCs at 8:30am on Monday. Here i...

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Stop saying confidence intervals are "better" than p values

July 29, 2016
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Stop saying confidence intervals are "better" than p values

One of the common tropes one hears from advocates of confidence intervals is that they are superior, or should be preferred, to p values. In our paper "The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals", we outlined a number of interpretation p...

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Stop saying confidence intervals are "better" than p values

July 29, 2016
By
Stop saying confidence intervals are "better" than p values

One of the common tropes one hears from advocates of confidence intervals is that they are superior, or should be preferred, to p values. In our paper "The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals", we outlined a number of interpretation p...

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