## Le Monde puzzle [#835]

September 28, 2013
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The current puzzle is apparently suffering from combinatoric complexity : N persons (with 20≤N≤23) are sitting around a round table and everyone has a green or red token. Both colours are represented. First, each player with a red token take the token of the player immediately to her or his left. Second, each player with […]

## IMAODBC 2013: And the winner is …

September 28, 2013
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The Best-Presentation Award of the International Marketing and Output Database Conference IMAODBC 2013 in Neuchâtel/Switzerland goes to Ilka Willand from the  German …Continue reading »

## Difficulties of using statistical significance (or lack thereof) to sift through and compare research hypotheses

September 28, 2013
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Dean Eckles writes: Thought you might be interested in an example that touches on a couple recurring topics: 1. The difference between a statistically significant finding and one that is non-significant need not be itself statistically significant (thus highlighting the problems of using NHST to declare whether an effect exists or not). 2. Continued issues […]The post Difficulties of using statistical significance (or lack thereof) to sift through and compare…

## Local Search and The Probability of Failure

September 28, 2013
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Infogroup - one of the leading providers of business listings - has an interesting post on their site about the problem of errors in local data. In this article they talk specifically about the error of business closure and the...

## Announcing Statistics with Interactive R Learning Software Environment

September 27, 2013
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Editor's note: This post was written by Nick Carchedi, a Master's degree student in the Department of Biostatistics at Johns Hopkins. He is working with us to develop software for interactive learning of R and statistics.  Inspired by the relative … Continue reading →

## Setting up Jitts online

September 27, 2013
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I use just-in-time teaching assignments in all my classes now. Vince helpfully sent along these instructions for setting these up on Google. See below. I think Jitts are just wonderful, and they’re so easy to set up, you should definitely be doing them in your classes too. I’ve had more difficulty with Peer Instruction (the […]The post Setting up Jitts online appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

## Blog Contents: August 2013

September 27, 2013
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August 2013 (8/1) Blogging (flogging?) the SLP: Response to Reply- Xi’an Robert (8/5) At the JSM: 2013 International Year of Statistics (8/6) What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM (8/9) 11th bullet, multiple choice question, and last thoughts on the JSM (8/11) E.S. Pearson: “Ideas came into my head as I sat on […]

## Logistic regression and categorical covariates

September 27, 2013
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$A$

A short post to get back – for my nonlife insurance course – on the interpretation of the output of a regression when there is a categorical covariate. Consider the following dataset > db = read.table("http://freakonometrics.free.fr/db.txt",header=TRUE,sep=";") > attach(db) > tail(db) Y X1 X2 X3 995 1 4.801836 20.82947 A 996 1 9.867854 24.39920 C 997 1 5.390730 21.25119 D 998 1 6.556160 20.79811 D 999 1 4.710276 21.15373 A 1000…

## OTexts.org is launched

September 26, 2013
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The publishing platform I set up for my forecasting book has now been extended to cover more books and greater functionality. Check it out at www.otexts.org. So far, we have three complete books: Forecasting: principles and practice, by Rob J Hyndman and George Athanasopoulos Statistical foundations of machine learning, by Gianluca Bontempi and Souhaib Ben Taieb Modal logic of strict necessity and possbibility, by Evgeni Latinov and one book currently…

## How could code review discourage code disclosure? Reviewers with motivation.

September 26, 2013
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A piece appeared a couple of days ago in Nature describing Mozilla's efforts to implement code review for scientific papers. As anyone who follows our blog knows, we are in favor of reproducible research, in favor of disclosing code, and … Continue reading →

## Difficulties in making inferences about scientific truth from distributions of published p-values

September 26, 2013
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Jeff Leek just posted the discussions of his paper (with Leah Jager), “An estimate of the science-wise false discovery rate and application to the top medical literature,” along with some further comments of his own. Here are my original thoughts on an earlier version of their article. Keith O’Rourke and I expanded these thoughts into […]The post Difficulties in making inferences about scientific truth from distributions of published p-values appeared…

## Another Nobel for Time Series Econometrics?

September 26, 2013
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Thomson Reuters makes annual Nobel Prize forecasts in chemistry, physics, medicine and economics, based on citation counts from its Web of Science database (no surprise). Of course the exercise is largely a marketing tool for their database, but it's s...

## Forecasting with R

September 25, 2013
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The following video has been produced to advertise my upcoming course on Forecasting with R, run in partnership with Revolution Analytics. The course will run from 21 October to 4 December, for two hours each week. More details are available at http:/...

## Great graphs of names

September 25, 2013
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From Nathan Yau. I love this stuff. It’s just wonderful, a great set of visualizations on a great topic. Offhand, the only suggestions I have are to scale the graphs or indicate in some way the trends in the total popularity of each name (as it is, I wonder if some of the variation is […]The post Great graphs of names appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

## For Predictive Modeling, Big Data Is No Big Deal

September 25, 2013
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That is what I will be speaking about when I give a keynote talk a the Predictive Analytics World conference on Monday, September 30th in Boston.For one thing, data has always been big. Big is a relative concept and data has always been big relative to...

## The most interesting thing you’ll hear about Fisher today

September 25, 2013
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Nothing brings out the silliness in smart people like Quantum Mechanics; a subject I always associate with … R. A. Fisher. I confess to liking Fisher more than Bayesians should. Unlike the forgettable p-value conjurers I’ve known in person,...

## Sheldon Hackney: A Truly Great Penn Man

September 25, 2013
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Sheldon Hackney, Penn's president 1981-1993, recently passed away. See the fine coverage in the Almanac and Daily Pennsylvanian.In my younger days as a Penn undergrad, Hackney took a lot of abuse. People felt that he didn't have much backbone. Exh...

## Is most science false? The titans weigh in.

September 25, 2013
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Some of you may recall that a few months ago my colleague and I posted a paper to the ArXiv on estimating the rate of false discoveries in the scientific literature. The paper was picked up by the Tech Review and … Continue reading →

## Code review

September 25, 2013
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There was an interesting news item in Nature on code review. It describes a project by some folks at Mozilla to review the code (well, really just 200-line snippets) from 6 selected papers in computational biology. There are very brief quotes from Titus Brown and Roger Peng. I expect that the author of the item, […]

## Classical probability does not apply to quantum systems (causal inference edition)

September 25, 2013
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James Robins, Tyler VanderWeele, and Richard Gill write: Neyman introduced a formal mathematical theory of counterfactual causation that now has become standard language in many quantitative disciplines, but not in physics. We use results on causal interaction and interference between treatments (derived under the Neyman theory) to give a simple new proof of a well-known […]The post Classical probability does not apply to quantum systems (causal inference edition) appeared first…

September 25, 2013
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Note: Act quickly. Looks like you can still get a free book courtesy of SAS from here. *** The New York Times features Acxiom, one of several data vendors that purportedly know a lot about you and me. Other key names in this sector include Experian and Equifax. What's new is that Acxiom will allow consumers to proactively "correct errors", or at least learn what is being bought and sold…

## Harmonic convergence

September 25, 2013
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Diederik Stapel gives a Ted talk.Sometimes, reality truly is a parody of reality.The post Harmonic convergence appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## Compute contours of the bivariate normal CDF

September 25, 2013
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This is the last post in my recent series of articles on computing contours in SAS. Last month a SAS customer asked how to compute the contours of the bivariate normal cumulative distribution function (CDF). Answering that question in a single blog post would have resulted in a long article, [...]