Who do you think I am?

February 10, 2016
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Who do you think I am?

Today I've received an email inviting me to submit a paper to a scientific journal (it doesn't really matter what journal it is, or whether or not my own work is actually relevant for them). I looove the way they've addressed to me, though. I think tha...

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Sample with replacement and unequal probability in SAS

February 10, 2016
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Sample with replacement and unequal probability in SAS

How do you sample with replacement in SAS when the probability of choosing each observation varies? I was asked this question recently. The programmer thought he could use PROC SURVEYSELECT to generate the samples, but he wasn't sure which sampling technique he should use to sample with unequal probability. This […] The post Sample with replacement and unequal probability in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, January 2016

February 10, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Mark Thompson, The White War: Life and Death on the Italian Front, 1915--1919 A well-told narrative history of the war, mostly from the Italian side. He covers all aspects, from the back-and-forth of ...

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"Robust Bayesian inference via coarsening" (Next Week at the Statistics Seminar)

February 10, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: Only of interest if you (1) care allocating precise fractions of a whole belief over a set of mathematical models when you know none of them is actually believable, and (2) will be in Pittsburgh on Monday. As someone wh...

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Worst Practices Conference

February 10, 2016
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This ad just arrived in the email.  What a title.  Presumably the conference is about improving worst-case outcomes in order to improve expected minimax loss.  But still, that title...2016 Foresight Practitioner Conference:Worst Practice...

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Finding the K in K-means by Parametric Bootstrap

February 9, 2016
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Finding the K in K-means by Parametric Bootstrap

One of the trickier tasks in clustering is determining the appropriate number of clusters. Domain-specific knowledge is always best, when you have it, but there are a number of heuristics for getting at the likely number of clusters in your data. We cover a few of them in Chapter 8 (available as a free sample … Continue reading Finding the K in K-means by Parametric Bootstrap

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Posterior Update of Bayes@Lund 2016

February 9, 2016
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Posterior Update of Bayes@Lund 2016

For the third year round I and Ullrika Sahlin arranged Bayes@Lund, a mini-conference bringing together researchers interested in or working with Bayesian methods in and around Sweden. This year we were thrilled to have over 70 attendees, both from ne...

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Analysis: Clinton backed by Big Money: Sanders by Small

February 9, 2016
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Analysis: Clinton backed by Big Money: Sanders by Small

This article examines FEC data in depth and finds what most people already know. Hillary Clinton's presidential bid is financed largely through a relatively small quantity of big donors while Bernie Sanders' presidential bid is funded by numerous small donors.In order to do our analysis, we look at four hundred thousand individualized contributions reported to the FEC at the end of the 2015 year. These contributions are only reported for…

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Leek group guide to reading scientific papers

February 9, 2016
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The other day on Twitter Amelia requested a guide for reading papers I love @jtleek’s github guides to reviewing papers, writing R packages, giving talks, etc. Would love one on reading papers, for students. — Amelia McNamara (@AmeliaMN) February 5, 2016   So I came up with a guide which you can find here: Leek

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The Replication Network

February 9, 2016
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The Replication Network

This is a "shout out" for The Replication Network.The full name is, The Replication Network: Furthering the Practice of Replication in Economics. I was alerted to TRN some time ago by co-organiser, Bob Reed, and I'm pleased to be a member.What's T...

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Stan’s Super Bowl prediction: Broncos 24, Panthers 13

February 9, 2016
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Stan’s Super Bowl prediction:  Broncos 24, Panthers 13

We ran the data through our model, not just the data from the past season but from the past 17 seasons (that’s what we could easily access) with a Gaussian process model to allow team abilities to vary over time. Because we’re modeling individual game outcomes, our model automatically controls for imbalances such as Carolina’s […] The post Stan’s Super Bowl prediction: Broncos 24, Panthers 13 appeared first on Statistical…

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Phd positions in Probabilistic Machine Learning at #AaltoPML group Finland

February 9, 2016
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Phd positions in Probabilistic Machine Learning at #AaltoPML group Finland

There are PhD positions in our Probabilistic Machine Learning group at Aalto, Finland, and altogether 15 positions in Helsinki ICT network. Apply here The most interesting topic in the call is supervised by Prof. Samuel Kaski at AaltoPML (and you may collaborate with me too :) We are looking for PhD candidates interested in probabilistic […] The post Phd positions in Probabilistic Machine Learning at #AaltoPML group Finland appeared first…

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Primed to lose

February 9, 2016
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Primed to lose

David Hogg points me to a recent paper, “A Social Priming Data Set With Troubling Oddities” by Hal Pashler, Doug Rohrer, Ian Abramson, Tanya Wolfson, and Christine Harris, which begins: Chatterjee, Rose, and Sinha (2013) presented results from three experiments investigating social priming—specifically, priming effects induced by incidental exposure to concepts relating to cash or […] The post Primed to lose appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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New Judea Pearl Causal Inference "Primer"

February 9, 2016
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New Judea Pearl Causal Inference "Primer"

Should be a fun and informative read. Check out the contents and various chapters here. ("Causal Inference in Statistics - A Primer" by J. Pearl, M. Glymour and N. Jewell. Available now on Kindle; available in print Feb. 26, 2016.)

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Using SVG graphics in blog posts

February 9, 2016
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Using SVG graphics in blog posts

My traditional work flow for embedding R graphics into a blog post has been via a PNG files that I upload online. However, when I created a 'simple' graphic with only basic curves and triangles for a recent post, I noticed that the PNG output didn't lo...

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The State of Information Visualization, 2016

February 8, 2016
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The State of Information Visualization, 2016

Oh hello, new year! I almost didn’t see you there! Lots of interesting things happened last year: Dear Data, deceptive visualization, storytelling research, new tools and ideas, etc. And this year is already shaping up to be quite strong, too. Dear Data Perhaps the most exciting project of 2015 was Dear Data by Giorgia Lupi and Stefanie Posavec. They … Continue reading The State of Information Visualization, 2016

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Neglected optimization topic: set diversity

February 8, 2016
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Neglected optimization topic: set diversity

The mathematical concept of set diversity is a somewhat neglected topic in current applied decision sciences and optimization. We take this opportunity to discuss the issue. The problem Consider the following problem: for a number of items U = {x_1, … x_n} pick a small set of them X = {x_i1, x_i2, ..., x_ik} such … Continue reading Neglected optimization topic: set diversity

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Forking paths vs. six quick regression tips

February 8, 2016
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Forking paths vs. six quick regression tips

Bill Harris writes: I know you’re on a blog delay, but I’d like to vote to raise the odds that my question in a comment to http://andrewgelman.com/2015/09/15/even-though-its-published-in-a-top-psychology-journal-she-still-doesnt-believe-it/gets discussed, in case it’s not in your queue. It’s likely just my simple misunderstanding, but I’ve sensed two bits of contradictory advice in your writing: fit one complete model all at […] The post Forking paths vs. six quick regression tips appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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"Using R for Introductory Econometrics"

February 8, 2016
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"Using R for Introductory Econometrics"

Recently, I received an email from Florian Heiss, Professor and Chair of Statistics and Econometrics at the Henrich Heine University of Dusseldorf.He wrote:"I'd like to introduce you to a new book I just published that might be of interest to you: Usin...

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On deck this week

February 8, 2016
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On deck this week

Mon: Forking paths vs. six quick regression tips Tues: Primed to lose Wed: Point summary of posterior simulations? Thurs: In general, hypothesis testing is overrated and hypothesis generation is underrated, so it’s fine for these data to be collected with exploration in mind. Fri: “Priming Effects Replicate Just Fine, Thanks” Sat: Pooling is relative to […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Connection between hypergeometric distribution and series

February 8, 2016
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Connection between hypergeometric distribution and series

What’s the connection between the hypergeometric distributions, hypergeometric functions, and hypergeometric series? The hypergeometric distribution is a probability distribution with parameters N, M, and n. Suppose you have an urn containing N balls, M red and the rest, N – M blue and you select n balls at a time. The hypergeometric distribution gives the probability of selecting k red balls. The probability generating function […]

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Read data into vectors or into a matrix: Which is better?

February 8, 2016
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Read data into vectors or into a matrix: Which is better?

In the SAS/IML language, you can read data from a SAS data set into a set of vectors (each with their own name) or into a single matrix. Beginning programmers might wonder about the advantages of each approach. When should you read data into vectors? When should you read data […] The post Read data into vectors or into a matrix: Which is better? appeared first on The DO Loop.

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You’ll never guess what I say when I have nothing to say

February 7, 2016
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A reporter writes: I’m a reporter working on a story . . . and I was wondering if you could help me out by taking a quick look at the stats in the paper it’s based on. The paper is about paedophiles being more likely to have minor facial abnormalities, suggesting that paedophilia is a […] The post You’ll never guess what I say when I have nothing to say…

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