## Competing views on Argentina’s Frontrunner

October 30, 2015
By

The last poll published today by Polldata put Scioli below 40%, with about 5% reporting being undecided. It might be too early to state anything solid, but the few polls prospecting the runoff election in Argentina seem to be telling two distinct histo...

## Competing views on Argentina’s Frontrunner

October 30, 2015
By

The last poll published today by Polldata put Scioli below 40%, with about 5% reporting being undecided. It might be too early to state anything solid, but the few polls prospecting the runoff election in Argentina seem to be telling two distinct histo...

## Competing views on Argentina’s Frontrunner

October 30, 2015
By

The last poll published today by Polldata put Scioli below 40%, with about 5% reporting being undecided. It might be too early to state anything solid, but the few polls prospecting the runoff election in Argentina seem to be telling two distinct ...

## Competing views on Argentina’s Frontrunner

October 30, 2015
By

The last poll published today by Polldata put Scioli below 40%, with about 5% reporting being undecided. It might be too early to state anything solid, but the few polls prospecting the runoff election in Argentina seem to be telling two distinct ...

## Competing views on Argentina’s Frontrunner

October 30, 2015
By

The last poll published today by Polldata put Scioli below 40%, with about 5% reporting being undecided. It might be too early to state anything solid, but the few polls prospecting the runoff election in Argentina seem to be telling two distinct ...

## Competing views on Argentina’s Frontrunner

October 30, 2015
By

The last poll published today by Polldata put Scioli below 40%, with about 5% reporting being undecided. It might be too early to state anything solid, but the few polls prospecting the runoff election in Argentina seem to be telling two distinct ...

## The statistics identity crisis: am I really a data scientist?

October 29, 2015
By

Tl;dr: We will host a Google Hangout of our popular JSM session October 30th 2-4 PM EST.    I organized a session at JSM 2015 called "The statistics identity crisis: am I really a data scientist?" The session turned out to be pretty popular: Packed room of statisticians with identity crises

## Our new R package

October 29, 2015
By

As part of the work she's doing for her PhD, Christina has done some (fairly major, I'd say!) review of the literature about prevalence studies on PCOS $-$ that's a rather serious, albeit probably fair to say quite under-researched area. When...

## Viewing Emailed Posts that Contain Math

October 29, 2015
By

A reminder for those of you who subscribe to the email feed:MathJax doesn't display in email, so when you look at the emailed post, the math will just be in LaTeX. Simply click/tap on the post's title in your email (e.g., in the latest case, “The HAC...

## You won’t be able to stop staring at this original Hot Hand preprint

October 29, 2015
By

To continue with our basketball theme, here’s the preprint of the original hot hand paper, “Misperception of Chance Processes in Basketball,” by Amos Tversky, Robert Vallone, and Thomas Gilovich, from 1985 or so. I remember when it was floating around and everybody was talking about it. When discussing the hot hand with Josh Miller the […] The post You won’t be able to stop staring at this original Hot Hand…

## VIS 2015 – Wednesday

October 28, 2015
By

The second full day of VIS 2015 brought lots of papers on applications and design studies, and also a panel on solved problems in visualization. As on the first day, I have some observations and thoughts. Here are two things I keep noticing and it baffles me that so many people don’t seem to be … Continue reading VIS 2015 – Wednesday

## Discussion of the Theranos Controversy with Elizabeth Matsui

October 28, 2015
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Theranos is a Silicon Valley diagnostic testing company that has been in the news recently. The story of Theranos has fascinated me because I think it represents a perfect collision of the tech startup culture and the health care culture and how combining them together can generate unique problems. I talked with Elizabeth Matsui, a

## Graphical Modeling Mimics Selective Attention: Customer Satisfaction Ratings

October 28, 2015
By

As shown by the eye tracking lines and circles, there is more on the above screenshot than we can process simultaneously. Visual perception takes time, and we must track where the eye focuses by recording sequence and duration. The "50% off" ...

## The HAC Emperor has no Clothes

October 28, 2015
By

Well, at least in time-series settings. (I'll save cross sections for a later post.)Consider a time-series regression with possibly heteroskedastic and/or autocorrelated disturbances, $$y_t = x_t' \beta + \varepsilon_t$$. A popular ap...

## Fooled by the big bad digital marketing data

October 28, 2015
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My latest piece in HBR (link) deals with the uncomfortable truth that digital marketing is just as wasteful as off-line advertising. This waste is a result of the prevalence of fake data. Because so much money is channeled into digital these days--all the big Web companies are essentially advertising agencies, scammers are everywhere siphoning off the advertisers' dollars. As I demonstrate in the piece, these scammers can make a good…

## Balancing profit and learning in A/B testing

October 28, 2015
By

A/B testing, or split testing, is commonly used in web marketing to decide which of two design options performs better. If you have so many visitors to a site that the number of visitors used in a test is negligible, conventional randomization schemes are the way to go. They’re simple and effective. But if you […]

## Hi-tech hoops: Characterizing the spatial structure of defensive skill in professional basketball

October 28, 2015
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Joshua Vogelstein points me to this article by Alexander Franks, Andrew Miller, Luke Bornn, and Kirk Goldsberry and writes: For some reason, I feel like you’d care about this article, and the resulting discussion on your blog would be fun. Hey—label your lines directly! Cool! Ummm . . . no. No. Really, really, really, really […] The post Hi-tech hoops: Characterizing the spatial structure of defensive skill in professional basketball…

## Monte Carlo simulation for contingency tables in SAS

October 28, 2015
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The FREQ procedure in SAS supports computing exact p-values for many statistical tests. For small and mid-sized problems, the procedure runs very quickly. However, even though PROC FREQ uses efficient methods to avoid unnecessary computations, the computational time required by exact tests might be prohibitively expensive for certain tables. If […] The post Monte Carlo simulation for contingency tables in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

## VIS 2015 – Tuesday

October 28, 2015
By

IEEE VIS 2015 started today. The first sessions included network visualization and projections, as well as a panel on the use of color in visualization. As usual, this is very selective: only the things I happened to see, and of those only the ones I felt strongly enough to mention here. You can follow the conference … Continue reading VIS 2015 – Tuesday

## Piecewise linear trends

October 28, 2015
By

I prepared the following notes for a consulting client, and I thought they might be of interest to some other people too. Let denote the value of the time series at time , and suppose we wish to fit a trend with correlated errors of the form     where represents the possibly nonlinear trend […]

## Super-topical NBA post!!!

October 27, 2015
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Paul Alper writes: Now that his team has won the NBA Championship, I am surprised that you have not commented on Curry and his mouthguard. The link is from May 8, 2015. Notice that mouthguard out is mouthguard chewed! From the article: Curry says his mouthguard routines are completely random, but apparently he’s now well […] The post Super-topical NBA post!!! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

## Non-linear growth curves with Stan

October 27, 2015
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I suppose the go to tool for fitting non-linear models in R is nls of the stats package. In this post I will show an alternative approach with Stan/RStan, as illustrated in the example, Dugongs: "nonlinear growth curve", that is part of Stan's document...

## Workshop on replication in economics

October 26, 2015
By

Jan Hoffler sends along this information: YSI workshop with Richard Ball, Johannes Pfeifer, Edward Miguel, Jan H. Höffler, and Thomas Herndon January 6 – 7, San Francisco, Mozilla Science Lab The workshop will take place right after the Annual Meeting of the American Social Sciences Associations, which includes the Annual Meeting of the American Economic […] The post Workshop on replication in economics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…