New paper on psychology replication

August 28, 2015
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New paper on psychology replication

The Open Science Collaboration, a team led by psychology researcher Brian Nosek, organized the replication of 100 published psychology experiments. They report: A large portion of replications produced weaker evidence for the original findings despite using materials provided by the original authors, review in advance for methodological fidelity, and high statistical power to detect the […] The post New paper on psychology replication appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Bayes theorem in real life

August 27, 2015
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Bayes theorem in real life

I had a chance to practice Bayesian inference in real life today: at 1pm my wife called to tell me that the carbon monoxide (CO) alarm at the house was going off.  Immediately two hypotheses came to mind: (1) there is a dangerous amount of CO in m...

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A political sociological course on statistics for high school students

August 27, 2015
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Ben Frisch writes: I am designing a semester long non-AP Statistics course for high school juniors and seniors. I am wondering if you had some advice for the design of my class. My currentthinking for the design of the class includes: 0) Brief introduction to R/ R Studio and descriptive statistics and data sheet structure. […] The post A political sociological course on statistics for high school students appeared first…

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Data Science for Managers (short course)

August 27, 2015
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Data Science for Managers (short course)

I am teaching part of a short-course on Data Science for Managers from 10–12 October in Melbourne. Course Overview The impact of Data Science on modern business is second only to the introduction of computers. And yet, for many businesses the barrier of entry remains too high due to lack of knowhow, organisational inertia, difficulties […]

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The Point Of A Chart

August 27, 2015
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The Point Of A Chart

When creating charts, it’s important to pick the one that actually fits not just the data, but the task. That can require going outside your comfort zone to use something beyond the four or five most common chart types. Here is an example where the original chart does not support comparison between two different sets of numbers, … Continue reading The Point Of A Chart

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abcfr 0.9-3

August 26, 2015
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abcfr 0.9-3

In conjunction with our reliable ABC model choice via random forest paper, about to be resubmitted to Bioinformatics, we have contributed an R package called abcrf that produces a most likely model and its posterior probability out of an ABC reference table. In conjunction with the realisation that we could devise an approximation to the […]

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abcfr 0.9-3

August 26, 2015
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abcfr 0.9-3

In conjunction with our reliable ABC model choice via random forest paper, about to be resubmitted to Bioinformatics, we have contributed an R package called abcrf that produces a most likely model and its posterior probability out of an ABC reference table. In conjunction with the realisation that we could devise an approximation to the […]

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Biased Estimation of Marginal Effects

August 26, 2015
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Biased Estimation of Marginal Effects

I began a recent post with the comment:"One thing that a lot of practitioners seem to be unaware of (or they choose to ignore it) is that in many of the common situations where we use regression analysis to estimate elasticities, these e...

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Vizzy vizzy vizzy viz

August 26, 2015
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Vizzy vizzy vizzy viz

Nadia Hassan points me to this post by Matthew Yglesias, who writes: Here’s a very cool data visualization from HowMuch.net that took me a minute to figure out because it’s a little bit unorthodox. The way it works is that it visualizes the entire world’s economic output as a circle. That circle is then subdivided […] The post Vizzy vizzy vizzy viz appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Losing count of money bags

August 26, 2015
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Losing count of money bags

I found this chart on a Munich publication called Süddeutsche Zeitung. This appeared during the most recent Greek/Euro crisis. The bags of money were financial obligations that were coming due from June 2015 to December 2015. There were three creditors,...

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Christensen on Term Structure Modeling at EUI

August 26, 2015
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Jens Christensen will give a Euro-Area Business Cycle Network three-day course at EUI, September 7-9. Jens is fantastic. Plus it's Florence in early September. It's not too late to register!Course SyllabusRecommended Reading ListCourse ScheduleLis...

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Monitor convergence during simulation studies in SAS

August 26, 2015
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Monitor convergence during simulation studies in SAS

Ugh! Your favorite regression procedure just printed a warning to the SAS log. Something is wrong, and your attempt to fit a model to the data has not succeeded. A typical message is "WARNING: The validity of the model fit is questionable," perhaps followed by some additional diagnostic messages about […] The post Monitor convergence during simulation studies in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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The Distribution of a Ratio of Correlated Normals

August 25, 2015
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The Distribution of a Ratio of Correlated Normals

Suppose that the random variables X1 and X2 are jointly distributed as bivariate Normal, with means of θ1 and θ2, variances of σ12 and σ22 respectively, and a correlation coefficient of ρ.In this post we're going to be looking at the distribution ...

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Stan’s 3rd birthday!

August 25, 2015
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Stan v1.0.0 was released on August 30, 2012. We’ve come a long way since. If you’re around and want to celebrate with some Stan developers and users, feel free to join us: Monday, August 31. 6 – 9 pm Untamed Sandwiches 43 W 39th St New York, NY If you didn’t know, we also have […] The post Stan’s 3rd birthday! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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“Can you change your Bayesian prior?”

August 25, 2015
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Deborah Mayo writes: I’m very curious as to how you would answer this for subjective Bayesians, at least. I found this section of my book showed various positions, not in agreement. I responded on her blog: As we discuss in BDA and elsewhere, one can think of one’s statistical model, at any point in time, […] The post “Can you change your Bayesian prior?” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Interview with COPSS award Winner John Storey

August 25, 2015
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Interview with COPSS award Winner John Storey

  Editor's Note: We are again pleased to interview the COPSS President's award winner. The COPSS Award is one of the most prestigious in statistics, sometimes called the Nobel Prize in statistics. This year the award went to John Storey who also won the Mortimer Spiegelman award for his outstanding contribution to public health statistics.  This interview is

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Visualising the predictive distribution of a log-transformed linear model

August 25, 2015
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Visualising the predictive distribution of a log-transformed linear model

Last week I presented visualisations of theoretical distributions that predict ice cream sales statistics based on linear and generalised linear models, which I introduced in an earlier post.Theoretical distributionsToday I will take a closer look at t...

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The Bias of Certain Elasticity Estimators

August 24, 2015
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The Bias of Certain Elasticity Estimators

In a recent post I discussed some aspects of estimating elasticities from regression models, and the interpretation of these values. That discussion should be kept in mind in reading what follows.One thing that a lot of practitioners seem to be unaware...

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3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2012): MEMORY LANE

August 24, 2015
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3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2012): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago… MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: August 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one (there are 4 U-Phils on Wasserman this time). Monthly memory lanes began at the blog’s 3-year anniversary in Sept, […]

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Statbusters: To divide or not to divide by 365

August 24, 2015
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In the newest column for the Daily Beast, Andrew and I look at the media's fascination with expressing large numbers as daily numbers. (link) In short, you should divide by 365 only when the metric actually scales with time, and be careful if the metric is not evenly distributed across time. We discuss the following headlines: "Air pollution is China is killing 4,000 per day" and "Periscope users view 40…

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From Quantity to Quality

August 24, 2015
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From Quantity to Quality

Open Data is a much-debated topic and – since the Obama administration launched Data.gov on May 21, 2009 – an international competition, too. Nearly 400 Open-Data Portals emerged meanwhile. But very often there is more concern about the number of published data than about the content of these data. GODI This issue has been addressed by … Continue reading From Quantity to Quality

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From Quantity to Quality

August 24, 2015
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From Quantity to Quality

Open Data is a much-debated topic and – since the Obama administration launched Data.gov on May 21, 2009 – an international competition, too. Nearly 400 Open-Data Portals emerged meanwhile. But very often there is more concern about the number of published data than about the content of these data. GODI This issue has been addressed by … Continue reading From Quantity to Quality

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“The belief was so strong that it trumped the evidence before them.”

August 24, 2015
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I was reading Palko on the 5 cent cup of coffee and spotted this: We’ve previously talked about bloggers trying to live on a food stamp budget for a week (yeah, that’s a thing). One of the many odd recurring elements of these post is a litany of complaints about life without caffeine because… I had already understood […] The post “The belief was so strong that it trumped the evidence before them.”…

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