On the cool maps about baseball fandom

May 20, 2014
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On the cool maps about baseball fandom

Josh Katz, who did the dialect maps I featured recently, is at it again. He's one of the co-authors of a series of maps (link) published by the New York Times about the fan territorities of major league baseball teams....

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Thermodynamic Monte Carlo: Michael Betancourt’s new method for simulating from difficult distributions and evaluating normalizing constants

May 20, 2014
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Thermodynamic Monte Carlo:  Michael Betancourt’s new method for simulating from difficult distributions and evaluating normalizing constants

I hate to keep bumping our scheduled posts but this is just too important and too exciting to wait. So it’s time to jump the queue. The news is a paper from Michael Betancourt that presents a super-cool new way to compute normalizing constants: A common strategy for inference in complex models is the relaxation […] The post Thermodynamic Monte Carlo: Michael Betancourt’s new method for simulating from difficult distributions…

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Next Kölner R User Meeting: Friday, 23 May 2014

May 20, 2014
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Next Kölner R User Meeting: Friday, 23 May 2014

The next Cologne R user group meeting is scheduled for this Friday, 23 May 2014. To celebrate our 10th meeting we welcome:Andrie de Vries (Revolution Analytics and Co-author of R for Dummies): Taking R to the Enterprise Markus Gesmann: googleVis overvi...

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The Purchase Funnel Survives the Consumer Decision Journey

May 19, 2014
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The Purchase Funnel Survives the Consumer Decision Journey

The journey metaphor is almost irresistible. All one needs is a starting point and a finish line, plus some notion of progression. Thus, life is a journey, and so is love. Why not apply the metaphor to your next purchase? McKinsey & Company takes s...

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A general introduction to stream processing

May 19, 2014
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The topic of "real-time computing" (RTC) has grown substantially both in substance and popularity over the past few years alongside...

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My short career as a Freud expert

May 19, 2014
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My short career as a Freud expert

I received the following email the other day (well, actually it was the other month, as we’re still on blog-delay): Dear Prof. Andrew Gelman, The ** Broadcasting Authority, together with ** – a well-established production company, are producing a documentary about Freud. The documentary presents different points of view regarding Freud’s personality and theories. At […] The post My short career as a Freud expert appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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On deck this week

May 19, 2014
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Mon: My short career as a Freud expert Tues: “P.S. Is anyone working on hierarchical survival models?” Wed: Skepticism about a published claim regarding income inequality and happiness Thurs: Big Data needs Big Model Fri: Did Neyman really say of Fisher’s work, “It’s easy to get the right answer if you never define what the […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Several upcoming presentations

May 19, 2014
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For information on upcoming meetings in which I am presenting, see this post on the sister blog.

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Upcoming Meetings

May 19, 2014
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(This post is cross-posted on my two blogs.) Posting will be light this week, as I prepare for a number of meetings. Please come find me if you are in the neighborhood. On May 20 (this Tuesday), I am the Banquet Speaker at the Midwest Biopharmaceutical Statistics Workshop (MBSW), to be held in Munice, Indiana on the Ball State campus. More information on this event here. I will be talking…

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Never multiply with a large diagonal matrix

May 19, 2014
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Never multiply with a large diagonal matrix

I love working with SAS Technical Support because I get to see real problems that SAS customers face as they use SAS/IML software. The other day I advised a customer how to improve the efficiency of a computation that involved multiplying large matrices. In this article I describe an important […]

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To explain or predict?

May 19, 2014
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To explain or predict?

Last week, my research group discussed Galit Shmueli’s paper “To explain or to predict?”, Statistical Science, 25(3), 289–310. (See her website for further materials.) This is a paper everyone doing statistics and econometrics should read as it helps to clarify a distinction that is often blurred. In the discussion, the following issues were covered amongst other things. The AIC is better suited to model selection for prediction as it is…

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Armed Bandits: A Statistical Approach

May 18, 2014
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This is a continuation of my previous post on multi-armed bandits.  And, I'm guessing there will be at least one more after this.The Multi-Armed Bandit problem is a seemingly simple problem.  A gambler is faced with a row of slot machines, ea...

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Never back down: The culture of poverty and the culture of journalism

May 18, 2014
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Never back down:  The culture of poverty and the culture of journalism

Ta-Nehisi Coates recently published a fascinating column on the “culture of poverty,” in particular focusing on the idea that behavior that is rational and adaptive in some settings is not so appropriate in others: The set of practices required for a young man to secure his safety on the streets of his troubled neighborhood are […] The post Never back down: The culture of poverty and the culture of journalism…

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European MEP data, part 3

May 18, 2014
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European MEP data, part 3

As final post on European MEPs voting I wanted to look at the individual MEP. The variables examined are how often present and how often present but not voted. The latter might be a marker of sign in and slope off. The analysis chosen is a hierarchical...

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Deconstructing Andrew Gelman: “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”

May 18, 2014
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Deconstructing Andrew Gelman:  “A Bayesian wants everybody else to be a non-Bayesian.”

At the start of our seminar, I said that “on weekends this spring (in connection with Phil 6334, but not limited to seminar participants) I will post some of my ‘deconstructions‘ of articles”. I began with Andrew Gelman‘s note  “Ethics and the statistical use of prior information”[i], but never posted my deconstruction of it. So since it’s Saturday night, and […]

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Mixed Effects Tutorial 2: Fun with merMod Objects

May 17, 2014
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Fun with merMod Objects Fun with merMod Objects Jared E. Knowles Saturday, May 17, 2014 Introduction First of all, be warned, the terminology surrounding multilevel models is vastly inconsistent. For examp...

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Forum in Ecology on p-values and model selection

May 17, 2014
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There’s a special issue of the journal (vol. 95, no. 3) featuring several papers on p-values. There’s also a discussion that I wrote, which does not appear in the journal (for reasons explained below) but which I extract and link to below. First, the papers in the special section: P values, hypothesis testing, and model […] The post Forum in Ecology on p-values and model selection appeared first on Statistical…

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RGolf

May 16, 2014
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Its time for some fun today - because its Friday as David Smith says :).There are many code golf sites, even some support R. However, most of them are algorithm oriented. A true RGolf competition should involve transforming a source data frame to some ...

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Save 45% on Practical Data Science with R (expires May 21, 2014)

May 16, 2014
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Save 45% on Practical Data Science with R (expires May 21, 2014)

Please share this generous deal from Manning publications: save 45% on Practical Data Science with R through May 21, 2014. Please tweet, forward and share! Edit: we are going to try and keep the current best deals on the book at the bottom of the Practical Data Science with R page. So look there for […] Related posts: A bit of the agenda of Practical Data Science with R Data…

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Free Eprints of Our Paper

May 16, 2014
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Free Eprints of Our Paper

If you're interested in downloading a copy of my recent paper with Xiao Ling, "Bias Reduction for the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of the Parameters of the Generalized Rayleigh Family of Distributions", but don't have a subscription to Communications i...

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How much can we learn about individual-level causal claims from state-level correlations?

May 16, 2014
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How much can we learn about individual-level causal claims from state-level correlations?

Hey, we all know the answer: “correlation does not imply causation”—but of course life is more complicated than that. As philosophers, economists, statisticians, and others have repeatedly noted, most of our information about the world is observational not experimental, yet we manage to draw causal conclusions all the time. Sure, some of these conclusions are […] The post How much can we learn about individual-level causal claims from state-level correlations?…

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R has some sharp corners

May 16, 2014
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R has some sharp corners

R is definitely our first choice go-to analysis system. In our opinion you really shouldn’t use something else until you have an articulated reason (be it a need for larger data scale, different programming language, better data source integration, or something else). The advantages of R are numerous: Single integrated work environment. Powerful unified scripting/programming […] Related posts: R minitip: don’t use data.matrix when you mean model.matrix Survive R Why…

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Perspektive statt Befristung: Für mehr feste Arbeitsplätze im Wissenschaftsbereich

May 16, 2014
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Exzellente Hintergrundinformation gibt es auch im Blog von Markus Dahlem, z.B.: [1], [2], oder [3]. Facebook-Gruppe: https://www.facebook.com/akademischeJuniorposition Folgende Abbildung sagt eigentlich alles: (R.Kreckel, Habilitation vs. Tenure Track,...

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