Point Forecast Accuracy Evaluation

April 7, 2014
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Here's a new one for your reading pleasure. Interesting history. Minchul and I went in trying to escape the expected loss minimization paradigm. We came out realizing that we hadn't escaped, but simultaneously, that not all loss functions are created e...

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Vector and matrix norms in SAS

April 7, 2014
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Vector and matrix norms in SAS

Did you know that SAS/IML 12.1 provides built-in functions that compute the norm of a vector or matrix? A vector norm enables you to compute the length of a vector or the distance between two vectors in SAS. Matrix norms are used in numerical linear algebra to estimate the condition […]

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Story: A Definition

April 7, 2014
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Story: A Definition

What makes a story? What does a story do? In part one of this little series, I argued that stories and worlds are not opposites, but complements. In this part, I try to explain the differences between worlds and stories, and present a definition.

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Stationarity of ARCH processes

April 7, 2014
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In the context of AR(1) processes, we spent some time to explain what happens when  is close to 1. if  the process is stationary, if  the process is a random walk if  the process will explode Again, random walks are extremely interesting processes,...

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Jaynes’s Bayesian view of Frequencies

April 6, 2014
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The last post together with Christian Hennig’s comment, naturally reminded me of Jaynes and his view of frequencies. After a discussion similar to my previous post, but approached in a different way and in more depth, Jaynes states (PTLOS p. 292)...

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Looking at Measles Data in Project Tycho, part II

April 6, 2014
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Looking at Measles Data in Project Tycho, part II

Continuing from last week, I will now look at incidence rates of measles in the US. To recap, Project Tycho contains data from all weekly notifiable disease reports for the United States dating back to 1888. These data are freely available to any...

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Seven (a-day)

April 6, 2014
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Seven (a-day)

This week (among other things, including my Vespa breaking down twice in three days) I was busy taking part in an interview panel for a research associate position, together with colleagues in the Medical School at UCL.One of the questions we...

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An old discussion of food deserts

April 6, 2014
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An old discussion of food deserts

I happened to be reading an old comment thread from 2012 (follow the link from here) and came across this amusing exchange: Perhaps this is the paper Jonathan was talking about? Here’s more from the thread: Anyway, I don’t have anything ...

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Advocacy graphics

April 6, 2014
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Advocacy graphics

Note: If you are here to read about Google Flu Trends, please see this roundup of the coverage. My blog is organized into two sections: the section you are on is about data visualization; the other section concerns Big Data...

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Interpreting noise

April 6, 2014
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Interpreting noise

When watching the TV news, or reading newspaper commentary, I am frequently amazed at the attempts people make to interpret random noise. For example, the latest tiny fluctuation in the share price of a major company is attributed to the CEO being ill. When the exchange rate goes up, the TV finance commentator confidently announces that it is a reaction to Chinese building contracts. No one ever says “The unemployment…

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Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour….

April 5, 2014
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Who is allowed to cheat? I.J. Good and that after dinner comedy hour….

It was from my Virginia Tech colleague I.J. Good (in statistics), who died five years ago (April 5, 2009), at 93, that I learned most of what I call “howlers” on this blog. His favorites were based on the “paradoxes” of stopping rules. (I had posted this last year here.) “In conversation I have emphasized to other statisticians, […]

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Bizarre academic spam

April 5, 2014
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I’ve been getting these sorts of emails every couple days lately: Respected Professor Gelman I am a senior undergraduate at Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur (IIT Kanpur). I am currently in the 8th Semester of my Master of Science (Integrated) in Mathematics and Scientific Computing program. I went through some of your previous work and […] The post Bizarre academic spam appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Making inferences about unusual population quantities.

April 5, 2014
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Making inferences about unusual population quantities.

This post builds on my last: Alternatives to model diagnostics for statistical inference?, where I had claimed that we could make quality inferences about the best linear approximation to a quadratic relationship. The R code below implements such a scenario, to establish a framework for discussion. I have inserted comments to augment the code. set.seed(42) […]

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I was going to criticize this on blog but I’m just too tired of things like this. What’s really horrible is the news article which takes all this so seriously. My problem is not with people who run regressions and post them on the web—the more the merrier, I say—but with reputable news outlets whose editors should know better

April 4, 2014
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A friend pointed me to this monstrosity. As an MIT grad, I’d like to think that Technology Review could do better. To elaborate a bit: A one-paragraph blurb would be fine to me, you can report that someone ran some regressions on the GSS and came up with an amusing hypothesis. That’s enough, then move […] The post I was going to criticize this on blog but I’m just too…

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There’s an App for That

April 4, 2014
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There’s an App for That

I was looking for econometrics-related "apps" for my Android tablet. Very little of interest came up for "Econometrics", but there certainly are some nice data-related apps.Here are a few examples:FRED Economic DataIndicators OnlineCentERdataAmerica's ...

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Playing With the FRB/US Model

April 4, 2014
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Playing With the FRB/US Model

Via both Mark Thoma and Gareth Thomas, I learned about a new initiative at the Federal Reserve Board. The details are available here.In summary:"The FRB/US model of the U.S. economy is one of several that Federal Reserve Board staff consults for f...

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The Notorious N.H.S.T. presents: Mo P-values Mo Problems

April 4, 2014
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A recent discussion between commenters Question and Fernando captured one of the recurrent themes here from the past year. Question: The problem is simple, the researchers are disproving always false null hypotheses and taking this disproof as near proof that their theory is correct. Fernando: Whereas it is probably true that researchers misuse NHT, the […] The post The Notorious N.H.S.T. presents: Mo P-values Mo Problems appeared first on Statistical…

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Big delusion

April 4, 2014
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This article printed by VentureBeat is too much. The title claims "The Internet is killing off marketing surveys & it's for the best". This article is tagged as "Big Data". Big delusion is what it is. This is a great example of the kind of revisionist history that is practised in the name of Big Data. You'd also notice that there is no data or evidence presented to support any…

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Getting a LaTeX system set up

April 4, 2014
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Getting a LaTeX system set up

Today I was teaching the honours students in econometrics and economics about LaTeX. Here are some brief instructions on how to set up a LaTeX system on different operating systems. MS-Windows Download and run the setup program for MikTeX. Choose the “basic” system. Download and run the installer program for TeXstudio. Then run TeXstudio and start typing. Mac OS Download and install MacTeX. Then run TeXshop and start typing. Ubuntu…

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Le Monde puzzle [#860]

April 3, 2014
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Le Monde puzzle [#860]

A Le Monde mathematical puzzle that connects to my awalé post of last year: For N≤18, N balls are placed in N consecutive holes. Two players, Alice and Bob, consecutively take two balls at a time provided those balls are in contiguous holes. The loser is left with orphaned balls. What is the values of […]

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New Paper

April 3, 2014
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New Paper

 Another of my papers on analytic bias-correction has now been published. This one is with a former M.A. student, Xiao Ling.The details are: Xiao Ling and David E. Giles, "Bias reduction for the maximum likelihood estimator of the parameters of th...

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Bayesian Probabilities Defined (part 1)

April 3, 2014
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This post defines the goal of all statistical efforts, shows how that goal is met, and defines probabilities. It is intuitive and simple, but for that reason will be difficult for statisticians to follow. To ease the pain, the reader should ditch every...

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Me and Alberto Cairo in one room tomorrow

April 3, 2014
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Me and Alberto Cairo in one room tomorrow

I have been a fan of Alberto Cairo for a while, and am slowly working my way through his great book, The Functional Art, which I will review soon. Thanks to the folks at JMP, the two of us will...

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