Josh Katz, who did the dialect maps I featured recently, is at it again. He's one of the co-authors of a series of maps (link) published by the New York Times about the fan territorities of major league baseball teams....

I hate to keep bumping our scheduled posts but this is just too important and too exciting to wait. So it’s time to jump the queue. The news is a paper from Michael Betancourt that presents a super-cool new way to compute normalizing constants: A common strategy for inference in complex models is the relaxation […] The post Thermodynamic Monte Carlo: Michael Betancourt’s new method for simulating from difficult distributions…

The topic of "real-time computing" (RTC) has grown substantially both in substance and popularity over the past few years alongside...

I received the following email the other day (well, actually it was the other month, as we’re still on blog-delay): Dear Prof. Andrew Gelman, The ** Broadcasting Authority, together with ** – a well-established production company, are producing a documentary about Freud. The documentary presents different points of view regarding Freud’s personality and theories. At […] The post My short career as a Freud expert appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

Mon: My short career as a Freud expert Tues: “P.S. Is anyone working on hierarchical survival models?” Wed: Skepticism about a published claim regarding income inequality and happiness Thurs: Big Data needs Big Model Fri: Did Neyman really say of Fisher’s work, “It’s easy to get the right answer if you never define what the […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

For information on upcoming meetings in which I am presenting, see this post on the sister blog.

(This post is cross-posted on my two blogs.) Posting will be light this week, as I prepare for a number of meetings. Please come find me if you are in the neighborhood. On May 20 (this Tuesday), I am the Banquet Speaker at the Midwest Biopharmaceutical Statistics Workshop (MBSW), to be held in Munice, Indiana on the Ball State campus. More information on this event here. I will be talking…

Last week, my research group discussed Galit Shmueli’s paper “To explain or to predict?”, Statistical Science, 25(3), 289–310. (See her website for further materials.) This is a paper everyone doing statistics and econometrics should read as it helps to clarify a distinction that is often blurred. In the discussion, the following issues were covered amongst other things. The AIC is better suited to model selection for prediction as it is…

This is a continuation of my previous post on multi-armed bandits. And, I'm guessing there will be at least one more after this.The Multi-Armed Bandit problem is a seemingly simple problem. A gambler is faced with a row of slot machines, ea...

Ta-Nehisi Coates recently published a fascinating column on the “culture of poverty,” in particular focusing on the idea that behavior that is rational and adaptive in some settings is not so appropriate in others: The set of practices required for a young man to secure his safety on the streets of his troubled neighborhood are […] The post Never back down: The culture of poverty and the culture of journalism…

At the start of our seminar, I said that “on weekends this spring (in connection with Phil 6334, but not limited to seminar participants) I will post some of my ‘deconstructions‘ of articles”. I began with Andrew Gelman‘s note “Ethics and the statistical use of prior information”[i], but never posted my deconstruction of it. So since it’s Saturday night, and […]

Fun with merMod Objects Fun with merMod Objects Jared E. Knowles Saturday, May 17, 2014 Introduction First of all, be warned, the terminology surrounding multilevel models is vastly inconsistent. For examp...

There’s a special issue of the journal (vol. 95, no. 3) featuring several papers on p-values. There’s also a discussion that I wrote, which does not appear in the journal (for reasons explained below) but which I extract and link to below. First, the papers in the special section: P values, hypothesis testing, and model […] The post Forum in Ecology on p-values and model selection appeared first on Statistical…

Its time for some fun today - because its Friday as David Smith says :).There are many code golf sites, even some support R. However, most of them are algorithm oriented. A true RGolf competition should involve transforming a source data frame to some ...

Please share this generous deal from Manning publications: save 45% on Practical Data Science with R through May 21, 2014. Please tweet, forward and share! Edit: we are going to try and keep the current best deals on the book at the bottom of the Practical Data Science with R page. So look there for […] Related posts: A bit of the agenda of Practical Data Science with R Data…

Hey, we all know the answer: “correlation does not imply causation”—but of course life is more complicated than that. As philosophers, economists, statisticians, and others have repeatedly noted, most of our information about the world is observational not experimental, yet we manage to draw causal conclusions all the time. Sure, some of these conclusions are […] The post How much can we learn about individual-level causal claims from state-level correlations?…

R is definitely our first choice go-to analysis system. In our opinion you really shouldn’t use something else until you have an articulated reason (be it a need for larger data scale, different programming language, better data source integration, or something else). The advantages of R are numerous: Single integrated work environment. Powerful unified scripting/programming […] Related posts: R minitip: don’t use data.matrix when you mean model.matrix Survive R Why…

Exzellente Hintergrundinformation gibt es auch im Blog von Markus Dahlem, z.B.: [1], [2], oder [3]. Facebook-Gruppe: https://www.facebook.com/akademischeJuniorposition Folgende Abbildung sagt eigentlich alles: (R.Kreckel, Habilitation vs. Tenure Track,...