Unformatted CodeIf you are like me originally then you might not think it is worth it to spend the extra energy to format your code. After all people can just copy what you have and paste it into their preferred editor which will do its own forma...

Ken Rice writes: In the recent discussion on stopping rules I saw a comment that I wanted to chip in on, but thought it might get a bit lost, in the already long thread. Apologies in advance if I misinterpreted what you wrote, or am trying to tell you things you already know. The comment […] The post Ken Rice presents a unifying approach to statistical inference and hypothesis testing…

Mark Girolami points us to this paper and software (with Oksana Chkrebtii, David Campbell, and Ben Calderhead). They write: We develop a general methodology for the probabilistic integration of differential equations via model based updating of a joint prior measure on the space of functions and their temporal and spatial derivatives. This results in a […] The post Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Differential Equations! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

This week's post has more math than most, so I wrote in it LaTeX and translated it to HTML using HeVeA. Some of the formulas are not as pretty as they could be. If you prefer, you can read this article in PDF. Abstract: My two favorite topics in probability and statistics are Bayes’s theorem and logistic regression. Because there are similarities between them, I have always assumed that there…

Raphael Silberzahn writes: Brian Nosek, Eric Luis Uhlmann, Dan Martin, and I just launched a project through the Open Science Center we think you’ll find interesting. The basic idea is to “Crowdstorm a Dataset”. Multiple independent analysts are recruited to test the same hypothesis on the same data set in whatever manner they see as […] The post Crowdstorming a dataset appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

Mon: Crowdstorming a dataset Tues: Ken Rice presents a unifying approach to statistical inference and hypothesis testing Wed: The health policy innovation center: how best to move from pilot studies to large-scale practice? Thurs: Heller, Heller, and Gorfine on univariate and multivariate information measures Fri: Discovering general multidimensional associations Sat: “The graph clearly shows that […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

This is an expanded version of Chart 3 that appeared in my FiveThirtyEight article: These were the five routes in which following Kayak's recommendations would get me to a lower price than the 14-day-out price for each flight. The purple dot was when Kayak first suggested buying. The gray dotted line was the price on my first day of search. A few key observations here: The high variability of prices…

This is the title of a wonderful new book that has just been released, courtesy of the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies. It can be freely downloaded from the COPSS website or a hard copy can be purchased on Amazon (for only a little over 10c per page which is not bad compared to other statistics books). The book consists of 52 chapters spanning 622 pages. The full table of contents below…

Here are a few more thoughts on Kaggle competitions, continuing my earlier Kaggle post.It's a shame that Kaggle doesn't make available (post-competition) the test-sample data and the set of test-sample forecasts submitted. If they did, then lots of int...

Calendar Strategy is a very simple strategy that buys an sells at the predetermined days, known in advance. Today I want to show how we can easily investigate performance at and around Month End days. First let’s load historical prices for SPY from Yahoo Fiance and compute SPY perfromance at the month-ends. I.e. strategy will […]

I will be at HEC Montréal Monday morning and Tuesday, for the Mathematical Finance Days. I will give a talk on Quantiles Estimation from Heavy Tailed Distribution, based on some joint work with Emmanuel Flachaire. I will upload the slides soon̷...

This post is by David K. Park As we have witnessed, the term “big data” has been thrusted onto the zeitgeist in the past several years, however, when one pushes beyond the hype, there seems to be little substance there. We’ve always had “data” so what so unique about it this time? Yes, we recognize it’s […] The post Big Data…Big Deal? Maybe, if Used with Caution. appeared first on Statistical…

Paul Alper writes: For years I [Alper] have been obsessed by the color of the line which divides oncoming (i.e., opposing) traffic because I was firmly convinced that the color of the center line changed during my lifetime. Yet, I never could find anyone who had the same remembrance (or interest in the topic). The […] The post White stripes and dead armadillos appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…