Florid’AISTATS

August 30, 2016
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Florid’AISTATS

The next AISTATS conference is taking place in Florida, Fort Lauderdale, on April 20-22. (The website keeps the same address one conference after another, which means all my links to the AISTATS 2016 conference in Cadiz are no longer valid. And that the above sunset from Florida is named… cadiz.jpg!) The deadline for paper submission […]

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The R community is awesome (and fast)

August 30, 2016
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Recently I whined/whinged or generally complained about a few sharp edges in some powerful R systems. In each case I was treated very politely, listened to, and actually got fixes back in a very short timeframe from volunteers. That is really great and probably one of the many reasons R is a great ecosystem. Please … Continue reading The R community is awesome (and fast)

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Publication bias occurs within as well as between projects

August 30, 2016
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Kent Holsinger points to this post by Kevin Drum entitled, “Publication Bias Is Boring. You Should Care About It Anyway,” and writes: I am an evolutionary biologist, not a psychologist, but this article describes a disturbing Scenario concerning oxytocin research that seems plausible. It is also relevant to the reproducibility/publishing issues you have been discussing […] The post Publication bias occurs within as well as between projects appeared first on…

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Dot plots are under-valued, that’s all

August 30, 2016
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Dot plots are under-valued, that’s all

Bar charts are over-used and over-rated. Just casually, I found this example at US News: Are you comparing bar widths? Or the printed data? Here is a dot plot:

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Evaluating election forecasts

August 30, 2016
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Nadia Hassan writes: Nate Silver did a review of pre-election predictions from forecasting models in 2012. The overall results were not great, but many scholars noted that some models seemed to do quite well. You mentioned that you were interested in how top-notch models fare. Nate agreed that some were better, but he raised the […] The post Evaluating election forecasts appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Birthdays and heat waves

August 29, 2016
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I mentioned the birthdays example in a talk the other day, and Hal Varian pointed me to some research by David Lam and Jeffrey Miron, papers from the 1990s with titles like Seasonality of Births in Human Populations, The Effect of Temperature on Human Fertility, and Modeling Seasonality in Fecundability, Conceptions, and Births. Aki and […] The post Birthdays and heat waves appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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On Credible Cointegration Analyses

August 29, 2016
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I may not know whether some \(I(1)\) variables are cointegrated, but if they are, I often have a very strong view about the likely number and nature of cointegrating combinations. Single-factor structure is common in many areas of economics and finance...

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Weighted percentiles

August 29, 2016
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Weighted percentiles

Many univariate descriptive statistics are intuitive. However, weighted statistic are less intuitive. A weight variable changes the computation of a statistic by giving more weight to some observations than to others. This article shows how to compute and visualize weighted percentiles, also known as a weighted quantiles, as computed by […] The post Weighted percentiles appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Nassi-Shneiderman Diagrams

August 29, 2016
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Nassi-Shneiderman Diagrams

Programming languages use words and symbols to represent structures like blocks and conditions. A visual representation of these structures seems useful to keep track of all the different cases, see the scope of variables, etc. Nassi-Shneiderman diagrams offer just such a representation. The structure of programs is sometimes shown using flow charts: decisions create branches, repetitions can […]

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Who owns your code and text and who can use it legally? Copyright and licensing basics for open-source

August 28, 2016
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Who owns your code and text and who can use it legally?  Copyright and licensing basics for open-source

I am not a lawyer (“IANAL” in web-speak); but even if I were, you should take this with a grain of salt (same way you take everything you hear from anyone). If you want the straight dope for U.S. law, see the U.S. government Copyright FAQ; it’s surprisingly clear for government legalese. What is copyrighted? […] The post Who owns your code and text and who can use it legally?…

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Oooh, it burns me up

August 28, 2016
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Oooh, it burns me up

If any of you are members of the Marketing Research Association, could you please contact them and ask them to change their position on this issue: I have a feeling they won’t mind if you call them at home. With an autodialer. “Pollsters now must hand-dial cellphones, at great expense,” indeed. It’s that expensive to […] The post Oooh, it burns me up appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Rmarkdown template for a Monash working paper

August 28, 2016
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Rmarkdown template for a Monash working paper

This is only directly relevant to my Monash students and colleagues, but the same idea might be useful for adapting to other institutions. Some recent changes in the rmarkdown and bookdown packages mean that it is now possible to produce working papers...

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Rmarkdown template for a Monash working paper

August 28, 2016
By
Rmarkdown template for a Monash working paper

This is only directly relevant to my Monash students and colleagues, but the same idea might be useful for adapting to other institutions. Some recent changes in the rmarkdown and bookdown packages mean that it is now possible to produce working papers in exactly the same format as we previously used with LaTeX. The following […]

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Variable pruning is NP hard

August 28, 2016
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I am working on some practical articles on variable selection, especially in the context of step-wise linear regression and logistic regression. One thing I noticed while preparing some examples is that summaries such as model quality (especially out of sample quality) and variable significances are not quite as simple as one would hope (they in … Continue reading Variable pruning is NP hard

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Better to just not see the sausage get made

August 27, 2016
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Better to just not see the sausage get made

Mike Carniello writes: This article in the NYT leads to the full text, in which these statement are buried (no pun intended): What is the probability that two given texts were written by the same author? This was achieved by posing an alternative null hypothesis H0 (“both texts were written by the same author”) and […] The post Better to just not see the sausage get made appeared first on…

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Sad night

August 26, 2016
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Sad night

I've just heard the very sad news that Richard Nixon has passed away this morning. I can't say I knew Richard very well, but I thought he really was a lovely guy and I am very saddened.I knew of him (among other things) through his work on covariate ad...

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Letters we never finished reading

August 26, 2016
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I got a book in the mail attached to some publicity material that began: Over the last several years, a different kind of science book has found a home on consumer bookshelves. Anchored by meticulous research and impeccable credentials, these books bring hard science to bear on the daily lives of the lay reader; their […] The post Letters we never finished reading appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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How to create a free distributed data collection "app" with R and Google Sheets

August 26, 2016
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How to create a free distributed data collection "app" with R and Google Sheets

Jenny Bryan, developer of the google sheets R package, gave a talk at Use2015 about the package. One of the things that got me most excited about the package was an example she gave in her talk of using the Google Sheets package for data collection a...

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Not So Standard Deviations Episode 21 – This Might be the Future!

August 26, 2016
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Hilary and I are apart again and this time we’re talking about political polling. Also, they discuss Trump’s tweets, and the fact that Hilary owns a bowling ball. Also, Hilary and I have just published a new book, Conversations on Data Science, wh...

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Free workshop on Stan for pharmacometrics (Paris, 22 September 2016); preceded by (non-free) three day course on Stan for pharmacometrics

August 25, 2016
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So much for one post a day… Workshop: Stan for Pharmacometrics Day If you are interested in a free day of Stan for pharmacometrics in Paris on 22 September 2016, see the registration page: Stan for Pharmacometrics Day (free workshop) Julie Bertrand (statistical pharmacologist from Paris-Diderot and UCL) has finalized the program: When Who What […] The post Free workshop on Stan for pharmacometrics (Paris, 22 September 2016); preceded by…

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A day in the life

August 25, 2016
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I like to post approx one item per day on this blog, so when multiple things come up in the same day, I worry about the sustainability of all this. I suppose I could up the posting rate to 2 a day but I think that could be too much of a burden on the […] The post A day in the life appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Lining up the dopers and their medals

August 25, 2016
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Lining up the dopers and their medals

The Times did a great job making this graphic (this snapshot is just the top half): A lot of information is packed into a small space. It's easy to compose the story in our heads. For example, Lee Chong Wai,...

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Stacked Bars Are the Worst

August 25, 2016
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Stacked Bars Are the Worst

Bar charts are great. They always work. They're always the safe choice. Right? Well, no. Stacked bar charts are deceiving because we think they work just like regular bars, when they're really pretty terrible. Some Examples Look at the following chart, showing unemployment numbers for Bavaria. The total height of the bars is easy enough […]

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