More on US health care overkill

February 10, 2014
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More on US health care overkill

Paul Alper writes: You recently posted my moving and widening the goalposts contention. In it, I mentioned “how diagnoses increase markedly while deaths are flatlined” indicating that we are being overdiagnosed and overtreated. Above are 5 frightening graphs which illustrate the phenomenon. Defenders of the system might (ludicrously) contend that it is precisely the aggressive […]The post More on US health care overkill appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Is it true that all epistemic principles can only be defended circularly? A Popperian puzzle

February 10, 2014
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Is it true that all epistemic principles can only be defended circularly? A Popperian puzzle

Current day Popperians, the “critical rationalists”, espouse the following epistemic principle CR:[i] (CR) it is reasonable to adopt or believe a claim or theory P which best survives serious criticism. What justifies CR?  To merely declare it is a reasonable epistemic principle without giving evidence that following it advances any epistemic goals is entirely unsatisfactory, […]

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An offer for New York Times Business reporters

February 10, 2014
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An offer for New York Times Business reporters

Reading the New York Times's coverage of the unemployment report irritates me so much that I'm putting an offer on the table: if they contact me, I'll send them a copy of Numbersense (link) for free so that they can educate themselves about employment statistics (Chapter 6). *** In the meantime, let me run through all the irritating errors they keep reporting month after month (link to article). By the…

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Where Have All the Tenured Women Gone?

February 10, 2014
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Ingram Olkin has an excellent editorial about gender equality in statistics departments in the US.  Everyone should read it.  Each University has its own business structure, and UCLA has its own structure. Biostatistics also differs from statistics i...

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Modelling Olympic Medal Wins

February 10, 2014
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Modelling Olympic Medal Wins

With the Sochi Winter Olympics now well underway, I was reminded of the empirical literature that has attempted to model the number of medals that different countries win.Back in 2006, one of our students, Glen Roberts, wrote an excellent paper, titled...

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On deck this week

February 10, 2014
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This blog has roughly a month’s worth of items waiting to be posted. I post about once a day, sometimes rescheduling posts to make room for something topical. Anyway, it struck me that I know what’s coming up, but you don’t. So, here’s what we have for you during the next few days: Mon: More […]The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Applying numbersense to a Bloomberg report

February 10, 2014
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Applying numbersense to a Bloomberg report

Eric P. asked me to comment on his recent post via twitter. (Yes, that's another way to submit charts to me.) Overall, I love the spirit of Eric's article. He's using his numbersense, in this case by asking what the...

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NBER Econonometrics "Methods Lectures" Videos

February 10, 2014
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For nearly a decade, the National Bureau of Economic Research has been holding a day of econometrics "Methods Lectures" during the Summer Institute, with the speakers and sub-topic changing each year.Evidently it's not widely known that the lecture vid...

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Monday data/statistics link roundup (2/10/14)

February 10, 2014
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I'm going to try Monday's for the links. Let me know what you think. The Guardian is reading our blog. A week after Rafa posts that everyone should learn to code for career preparedness, the Guardian gets on the bandwagon. … Continue reading →

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Define functions with default parameter values in SAS/IML

February 10, 2014
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Define functions with default parameter values in SAS/IML

One of my favorite new features of SAS/IML 12.1 enables you to define functions that contain default values for parameters. This is extremely useful when you want to write a function that has optional arguments. Example: Centering a data vector It is simple to specify a SAS/IML module with a [...]

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Sochi Olympic Medals

February 9, 2014
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Sochi Olympic Medals

For those who are addicted to R and haven’t the time to click the mouse on a web browser you too can still be informed about the results of the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. I was inspired by a SO … Continue reading →

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Why I am going to ICOTS9 in Flagstaff, Arizona

February 9, 2014
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Why I am going to ICOTS9 in Flagstaff, Arizona

I was a university academic for twenty years. One of the great perks of academia is the international conference. Thanks to the tax-payers of New Zealand I have visited Vancouver, Edinburgh, Melbourne (twice), San Diego, Fort Lauderdale, Salt Lake City … Continue reading →

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Why I am going to ICOTS9 in Flagstaff, Arizona

February 9, 2014
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Why I am going to ICOTS9 in Flagstaff, Arizona

I was a university academic for twenty years. One of the great perks of academia is the international conference. Thanks to the tax-payers of New Zealand I have visited Vancouver, Edinburgh, Melbourne (twice), San Diego, Fort Lauderdale, Salt Lake City … Continue reading →

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The Statsguys on Data Analytics

February 9, 2014
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The Statsguys on Data Analytics

It's good to see that more and more students of econometrics are taking an interest in "Data Analytics" / "Big Data" /"Data Science" literature. As I've commented previously, there's a lot that we can all learn from each other. Moreover, many of "bound...

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A complicated answer to a simple correlation question

February 9, 2014
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A complicated answer to a simple correlation question

A data analysis surprise party. Simple question If I have correlation matrices each estimated with a month of daily returns, how much worse is the average of six of those compared to the estimate with six months of daily data? Expected answer Do a statistical bootstrap with the returns and compare the standard deviations across … Continue reading →

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What is a Bayes factor?

February 9, 2014
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What is a Bayes factor?

The BayesFactor packageThis blog is a companion to the BayesFactor package in R (website), which supports inference by Bayes factors in common research designs. Bayes factors have been proposed as more principled replacements for common classical statistical procedures such as \(p\) values; this blog will offer tutorials in using the package for data analysis.In this first post, I describe the general logic of Bayes factors using a very simple research…

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Keli Liu and Xiao-Li Meng on Simpson’s paradox

February 9, 2014
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XL sent me this paper, “A Fruitful Resolution to Simpson’s Paradox via Multi-Resolution Inference.” I told Keli and Xiao-Li that I wasn’t sure I fully understood the paper—as usual, XL is subtle and sophisticated, also I only get about half of his jokes—but I sent along these thoughts: 1. I do not think counterfactuals or […]The post Keli Liu and Xiao-Li Meng on Simpson’s paradox appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Bayesian analysis of sensory profiling data, part 2

February 9, 2014
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Bayesian analysis of sensory profiling data, part 2

Last week I made the core of a Bayesian model for sensory profiling data. This week the extras need to be added. That is, there are a bunch of extra interactions and the error is dependent on panelists and descriptors.Note that where last week I pointe...

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Phil 6334: Day #3: Feb 6, 2014

February 9, 2014
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Phil 6334: Day #3: Feb 6, 2014

Day #3: Spanos lecture notes 2, and reading/resources from Feb 6 seminar  6334 Day 3 slides: Spanos-lecture-2 ___ Crupi & Tentori (2010). Irrelevant Conjunction: Statement and Solution of a New Paradox, Phil Sci, 77, 1–13. Hawthorne & Fitelson (2004). Re-Solving Irrelevant Conjunction with Probabilistic Independence, Phil Sci 71: 505–514. Skryms (1975) Choice and Chance 2nd ed. Chapter V and Carnap (pp. 206-211), Dickerson Pub. […]

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A Blast From the Past

February 8, 2014
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A Blast From the Past

Doesn't time fly! Around the end of August 1994 Lief Bluck and I put together a web site for our department. That may not sound very interesting, but let's put things in perspective.Our University didn't have a web site - not many universities did. The...

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“Guys who do more housework get less sex”

February 8, 2014
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“Guys who do more housework get less sex”

Sometimes I have a few minutes where I can work, but I don’t feel like working. So I follow the blogroll, this time from here to here: Sabino Kornrich, Julie Brines, Katrina Leupp. Egalitarianism, Housework, and Sexual Frequency in Marriage American Sociological Review February 2013 vol. 78 no. 1 26-50 doi: 10.1177/0003122412472340 Data are from Wave […]The post “Guys who do more housework get less sex” appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Mugged

February 8, 2014
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Mugged

Rasmus posted a couple of comments on my Christmas-present mug and apparently has started a collection of his own. But, then again, I think the mug galore has hit hard on many (eg here)... I'm going to have to get another one soon, ...

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Detecting seasonality

February 8, 2014
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Detecting seasonality

I occasionally get email asking how to detect whether seasonality is present in a data set. Sometimes the period of the potential seasonality is known, but in other cases it is not. I’ve discussed before how to estimate an unknown seasonal period, and how to measure the strength of the seasonality. In this post, I want to look at testing if a series is seasonal when the potential period is…

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