Xi’an’s Og (aka Christian Robert’s blog) is featuring a very nice presentation of NUTS by Marco Banterle, with discussion and some suggestions. I’m not even sure how they found Michael Betancourt’s paper on geometric NUTS ...

Xi’an’s Og (aka Christian Robert’s blog) is featuring a very nice presentation of NUTS by Marco Banterle, with discussion and some suggestions. I’m not even sure how they found Michael Betancourt’s paper on geometric NUTS ...

This post is by Phil A recent post on this blog discusses a prominent case of an Excel error leading to substantially wrong results from a statistical analysis. Excel is notorious for this because it is easy to add a row or column of data (or intermediate results) but forget to update equations so that [...]The post Data problems, coding errors…what can be done? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

An interesting episode is developing in econometrics over the very high profile Reinhart-Rogoff paper that was heavily cited as a source to "prove" that high levels of national debt impede growth. It appears that that result was based on a combination of spreadsheet errors, and bad assumptions. 1. Andrew Gelman has a great discussion here. His main concern is ethics of data analysts. This is a very important point -…

Here is an interview with Ron Hochreiter, Assistant Professor at WU Vienna University Economics and Business. In 25 words or less tell us what you do (using German words is cheating). I consider myself as a data scientist (teaching and research) with roots in Mathematical Programming, i.e. Optimization under Uncertainty (Stochastic Programming). You were an […]The post Interview with a forced convert from Matlab to R appeared first on Burns…

Jeff Ratto points me to this news article by Dean Baker reporting the work of three economists, Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash, and Robert Pollin, who found errors in a much-cited article by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff analyzing historical statistics of economic growth and public debt. Mike Konczal provides a clear summary; that’s where I [...]The post Memo to Reinhart and Rogoff: I think it’s best to admit your errors…

Choices in Visualizing Data This time, it’s not at the university, it’s at a data science meetup. Here are the slides. I actually prefer the term “statistical graphics” or “visualizing quantitative information” rather than “visualizing data.” I spend a lot of time graphing inferences and fitted models, understanding my fits and doing exploratory model analysis. [...]The post My talk in Chicago this Thurs 6:30pm appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

‘No estaba muerto, andaba the parranda’† as the song says. Although rather than partying it mostly has been reading, taking pictures and trying to learn how to record sounds. Here there are some things I’ve come across lately. I can’t remember if I’ve recommended Matloff’s The Art of R Programming before; if I haven’t, go […]

More exciting news about MCMSki IV! First thing first, the 16 contributed sessions are now all-set, having gotten the stamp of approval from the scientific committee! Thanks to everyone who submitted a session proposal. (There were so many proposals that we alas had to reject some, as well as every single talk proposal… Sorry people: […]

We have previously mentioned on this blog how statistics needs better marketing. Recently, Karl B. has suggested that “Data science is statistics” and Larry W. has wondered if “Data science is the end of statistics?” I think there are a … Continue reading →

Dave Berri writes: A recent study published in the Social Science Quarterly suggests that these moves may not lead to the happiness the fans envision (HT: the Sports Economist). E. Scott Adler, Michael J. Berry, and David Doherty looked at coaching changes from 1997 to 2010. What they found should give pause to people who [...]The post How effective are football coaches? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

In this International Year of Statistics, I'd like to describe the major role of statistics in public health advances. In our modern society, it is sometimes difficult to recall the huge advances in health and medicine in the 20th century. To name a few: penicillin was discovered in 1928, risk [...]

How good is the current opportunity to pick stocks relative to the past? Idea The more stocks act differently from each other relative to how volatile they are, the more opportunity there is to benefit by selecting stocks. This post looks at a particular way of investigating that idea. Data Daily (log) returns of 442 … Continue reading →

The gambler’s ruin problem is one where a player has a probability p of winning and probability q of losing. For example let’s take a skill game where the player x can beat player y with probability 0.6 by getting closer to a target. The game play begins with player x being allotted 5 points and player y [...]

Introduction Today, I will discuss the alpha decay of americium-241 and use R to model the number of emissions from a real data set with the Poisson distribution. I was especially intrigued in learning about the use of Am-241 in smoke detectors, and I will elaborate on this clever application. I will then use the Pearson chi-squared […]