I like it. Clear, transparent, no mumbo jumbo about their secret sauce. But . . . what’s with the hyper-precision: C’mon. “27.4%”? Who are you kidding?? (See here for explication of this point.) The post Go to PredictWise ...

Bikes . . . have “become the most common mode of transportation for criminals.” OK, that’s just ethnic profiling of Dutch people. I think they’re just gonna put the whole country on lockdown. The post Diederik Stapel in the news, again...

“Tests of Statistical Hypotheses and Their Use in Studies of Natural Phenomena” by Jerzy Neyman ABSTRACT. Contrary to ideas suggested by the title of the conference at which the present paper was presented, the author is not aware of a conceptual difference between a “test of a statistical hypothesis” and a “test of significance” and uses […]

I was talking with someone today about various “dead on arrival” research programs we’ve been discussing here for the past few years: I’m talking about topics such beauty and sex ratios of children, or ovulation and voting, or ESP—all of which possibly represent real phenomena and could possibly be studied in a productive way, just […] The post How do data and experiments fit into a scientific research program? appeared…

There are at least three traditions in statistics which work with a kind of likelihood ratios (LRs): the “Bayes factor camp”, the “AIC camp”, and the “likehood camp”. In my experience, unfortunately most people do no...

I sent my post about the political implication of behavioral economics, embodied cognition, etc., to Gerd Gigerenzer, who commented as follows: The “half-empty” versus “half-full” explanation of the differences between Kahneman and us misses the essential point: the difference is about the nature of the glass of rationality, not the level of the water. For […] The post Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

The other day, my colleague Gareth pointed out a very interesting piece of news. The new version of Stata is just out. Now, I'm not a super-Stata user (although I think it's a good package), but the interesting news is that they have now developed a sp...

I'm working on a manuscript on confidence intervals, and I thought I'd share a draft section on the reporting of confidence intervals. The paper has several demonstrations of how CIs may, or may not, offer quality inferences, and how they can differ ma...

R has 108 shades of grey with an 'e', and 116 shades of gray with an 'a'. Fully 34% of named colors are gray/grey of some kind. So when can we expect R, the movie? # Blog appendix > temp = colors() > length(temp) #657 [1] 657 > > temp2 ...

Date: February 3, 2015 at 12:55:59 PM EST Subject: Sample Stats Question From: ** Hello, I hope all is well and trust that you are having a great day so far. I hate to bother you but I have a stats question that I need help with: How can you tell which group has the […] The post Perhaps the most contextless email I’ve ever received appeared first on Statistical…

Xian blogged recently on the incoming RSS read paper: Statistical Modelling of Citation Exchange Between Statistics Journals, by Cristiano Varin, Manuela Cattelan and David Firth. Following the last JRSS B read paper by one of us! The data that are used in the paper (and can be downloaded here) are quite fascinating for us, academics fascinated by academic rankings, […]

A Statistical Model as a Chance Mechanism Aris Spanos Today is the birthday of Jerzy Neyman (April 16, 1894 – August 5, 1981). Neyman was a Polish/American statistician[i] who spent most of his professional career at the University of California, Berkeley. Neyman is best known in statistics for his pioneering contributions in framing the Neyman-Pearson (N-P) […]

In this post, I would like to share a simple problem about sampling analysis. And I will demonstrate how to solve this using Python and R. The first two problems are originally from Sampling: Design and Analysis book by Sharon Lohr.ProblemsLet $N=6$ an...

To continue from today’s class, here’s what we’ll be discussing next time: – Estimating the direction and the magnitude of the discrimination parameters. – How to tell when your data don’t fit the model. – When does ideal-point modeling make a difference? Comparing ideal-point estimates to simple averages of survey responses. P.S. Unlike the previous […] The post Item-response and ideal point models appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Fernanda Viégas and Martin Wattenberg have written a wonderful piece titled Design and Redesign in Data Visualization about criticism in data visualization. They thoughtfully analyze the practice and point out some of the issues when people create redesigns, including intellectual honesty and perfect hindsight. They then go on to define some “rules of engagement” for a more … Continue reading Link: Design and Redesign in Data Visualization

I wanted to add some context to what we talked about in class today. Part of the message I was sending was that there are some stupid things that get published and you should be careful about that: don’t necessarily believe something, just cos it’s statistically significant and published in a top journal. And, sure, […] The post A message I just sent to my class appeared first on Statistical…