## MCMSki IV, Jan. 6-8, 2014, Chamonix (news #14)

December 21, 2013
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We are quite glad to announce that, thanks to the support of several publishers (CRC Press/Taylor & Francis, Elsevier, and Springer-Verlag), there will be book prizes for both poster nights at MCMSki IV ! I was reminded of this possibility during O-Bayes 2013 and those publishers reacted both quickly and positively to my request (and […]

## Chasing the noise

December 21, 2013
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Fabio Rojas writes: After reading the Fowler/Christakis paper on networks and obesity, a student asked why it was that friends had a stronger influence on spouses. In other words, if we believe the F&C paper, they report that your friends (57%) are more likely to transmit obesity than your spouse (37%) (see page 370). This […]The post Chasing the noise appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## 37% chance

December 21, 2013
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$n\times n$

I don’t know if you ever realized, before, but it is quite common to have 37% chance that something happened (or actually “not happened” if we want to be more rigorous). For instance, consider a  grid, and draw  points randomly (and uniformely). Then, around 37% cells are empty. Or if you consider a cell, on that grid, there is 37% chance, that the cell is empty. You can look, on the…

## The Best Data Visualizations of 2013 – Gizmodo

December 20, 2013
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From: http://gizmodo.com/the-best-data-visualizations-of-2013-1485611407JAMIE CONDLIFFE on GIZMODOYEAR IN REVIEW Wednesday 10:00am26,711g25LVisualization continues to mature and focus more on the data first than on novel designs and size...

## Merry Christmas

December 20, 2013
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Merry Christmas for all readers. Please enjoy my tree. codepart <- list(x0=0,y0=0,x1=0,y1=1,    branch1=NULL,branch2=NULL,extend=NULL,    lwd=1,depth=0,col='springgreen')par(mfrow=c(1,1),mar=c(5, 4, 4, 2) + 0.1)segplot <-...

## A non-comprehensive list of awesome things other people did this year.

December 20, 2013
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Editor's Note: I made this list off the top of my head and have surely missed awesome things people have done this year. If you know of some, you should make your own list or add it to the comments! I … Continue reading →

## Don’t douthat, man! Please give this fallacy a name.

December 20, 2013
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Regular readers of this blog will know that I’m always on the lookout for new items for the lexicon. It’s been a good month on that front. In addition to the Garden of Forking Paths, I’ve encountered two entirely new (to me) fallacies. The first of the two new fallacies has a name that’s quite […]The post Don’t douthat, man! Please give this fallacy a name. appeared first on Statistical…

## Happy birthday

December 19, 2013
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(Click for bigger image.) The above is Aki’s decomposition of the birthdays data (the number of babies born each day in the United States, from 1968 through 1988) using a Gaussian process model, as described in more detail in our book. The post ...

## Using Processing and R together (in OS X)

December 19, 2013
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I wanted to develop a small experiment with a front end using the Processing language and the backend calculations in R; the reason why will be another post. This post explained the steps assuming that one already has R and Processing installed: Install the Rserve package. This has to be done from source (e.g. using […]

## Latent Variable Mixture Models (LVMM): Decomposing Heterogeneity into Type and Intensity

December 19, 2013
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Adding features to a product can be costly, so brands have an incentive to include only those features most likely to increase demand. In the last two posts (first link and second link), I have recommended what could be called a "features stress t...

## Big News! Practical Data Science with R is content complete!

December 19, 2013
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The last appendix has gone to the editors; the book is now content complete. What a relief! We are hoping to release the book late in the first quarter of next year. In the meantime, you can still get early drafts of our chapters through Manning’s Early Access program, if you haven’t yet. The link […] Related posts: Data science project planning Data Science, Machine Learning, and Statistics: what is…

## A. Spanos lecture on “Frequentist Hypothesis Testing”

December 19, 2013
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I attended a lecture by Aris Spanos to his graduate econometrics class here at Va Tech last week[i]. This course, which Spanos teaches every fall, gives a superb illumination of the disparate pieces involved in statistical inference and modeling, and affords clear foundations for how they are linked together. His slides follow the intro section. Some […]

## Revised evidence for statistical standards

December 19, 2013
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X and I heard about this much-publicized recent paper by Val Johnson, who suggests changing the default level of statistical significance from z=2 to z=3 (or, as he puts it, going from p=.05 to p=.005 or .001). Val argues that you need to go out to 3 standard errors to get a Bayes factor of […]The post Revised evidence for statistical standards appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Some fields produce more false results than others

December 19, 2013
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John Ioannidis stirred up a healthy debate when he published Why Most Published Research Findings Are False. Unfortunately, most of the discussion has been over whether the word “most” is correct, i.e. whether the proportion of false results is more or less than 50 percent. At least there is more awareness that some published results […]

## Digital music business needs numbersense

December 19, 2013
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Joran E. sends us to the following chart via Twitter. Link to the original here. *** The top chart fails our self-sufficiency test. There are only eight numbers in the data. All eight numbers are printed onto the chart. If...

## Sharp Statistics helps Aquafuel

December 19, 2013
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Aquafuel Research Limited have developed technology that makes it possible to run standard diesel powered combined heat and power (CHP) plants on renewable bio fuels. To be able to analyse the performance of installed CHP units and to assess the requi...

## In Memoriam Dennis Lindley

December 18, 2013
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So. Farewell then Dennis Lindley. You held the Hard line on Bayesianism When others Had doubts. And you share The name of a famous Paradox. What is your subjective Prior now? We can only Infer. R. A. Thribb (17 1/2) P.S. The post In Memoriam Dennis Li...

## Numbersense News

December 18, 2013
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Here are a few links to recent coverage of Numbersense: Arati Mejdal has an interesting list of 20 books, which should interest my readers: link Albert Cairo selects it as one of his favorites of 2013: link. Pay attention to his recommendations for visual design books. Rakesh Arya writes a review of the book, concluding: "The examples are quite apt with the topics and easily understood as they are explained…

## Curoverse raises \$1.5M to develop & support an open-source bioinformatics data analysis platform

December 18, 2013
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Boston-based startup Curoverse has announced \$1.5 million in funding to develop and support the open-source Arvados platform for cloud-based bioinformatics & genomics data analysis.The Arvados platform was developed in George Church's lab by s...

## A Christmas tree matrix

December 18, 2013
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O Christmas tree, O Christmas tree, Last year a fractal made thee! O Christmas tree, O Christmas tree, A heat map can display thee! O tree of green, adorned with lights! A trunk of brown, the rest is white. O Christmas tree, O Christmas tree, A heat map can display [...]

## Open access

December 17, 2013
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I was really impressed by the very smooth process through which my paper on cost-effectiveness analysis in the presence of structural zero costs (which I've already mentioned for example here and here; the related R package is described here) has ...

## Conditional dependence measures

December 17, 2013
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$(Y_1,Y_2)$

This week, I spend some time at the Workshop on Nonparametric Curve Smoothing conference at Concordia. Yesterday afternoon, Noël Veraverbeke show an interesting graph, to illustrate conditional copulas (and the derivation of conditional dependence measures, such as Kendall’s tau, or Spearman’s rho). A long time ago, in my PhD thesis (mainly on conditional copulas) I did try to derive conditional dependence measures (in a dedicated chapter). In my PhD, I was…

## Replication backlash

December 17, 2013
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Raghuveer Parthasarathy pointed me to an article in Nature by Mina Bissell, who writes, “The push to replicate findings could shelve promising research and unfairly damage the reputations of careful, meticulous scientists.” I can see where she’s coming from: if you work hard day after day in the lab, it’s gotta be a bit frustrating […]The post Replication backlash appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.