## BCEs0 version 1.1 on CRAN

November 16, 2013
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As I was responding to the points raised by two referees and the editor on my paper on cost-effectiveness with structural zeros (the preliminary version was here, while I have presenting it in a few talks and discussed it here, here, here and here...

## A Shiny App for Experimenting with Dynamic Programming

November 16, 2013
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This post demonstrates the dynamics involved in a susceptible, infected, and recovering (SIR) model previous post for the model.  The shiny ui and server code can be found on GitHub.of dynamic programming. As a dynamic infection model, I find it p...

## Le Monde puzzle [#839]

November 15, 2013
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A number theory Le Monde mathematical puzzle whose R coding is not really worth it (and which rings a bell of a similar puzzle in the past, puzzle I cannot trace…): The set Ξ is made of pairs of integers (x,y) such that (i) both x and y are written as a sum of two squared integers (i.e., are […]

## Laplace didn’t have a time machine

November 15, 2013
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Dr. Mayo responded to criticism of the Severity Principle here. The main points are (A) if SEV differs from Bayes it doesn’t mean SEV’s bad (B) you shouldn’t compare SEV and Bayes because they do different things (C) A prior can alway...

## What’s the future of inference?

November 15, 2013
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Rob Gould reports on what appears to have been interesting panel discussion on the future of statistics hosted by the UCLA Statistics Department. The panelists were Songchun Zhu (UCLA Statistics), Susan Paddock (RAND Corp.), and Jan de Leeuw (UCLA Statistics). He … Continue reading →

## “Are all significant p-values created equal?”

November 15, 2013
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The answer is no, as explained in this classic article by Warren Browner and Thomas Newman from 1987. If I were to rewrite this article today, I would frame things slightly differently—referring to Type S and Type M errors rather than speaking of “the probability that the research hypothesis is true”—but overall they make good […]The post “Are all significant p-values created equal?” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

## Evaluating Quandl Data Quality

November 15, 2013
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Quandl has indexed millions of time-series datasets from over 400 sources. All of Quandl’s datasets are open and free. This is great news but before performing any backtest using Quandl data, I want to compare it with a trusted source: Bloomberg for the purpose of this post. I will focus only on daily Futures data here […]

## Python: Venn Diagram

November 15, 2013
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Venn Diagram is very useful for visualizing operations between events/sets. So in this post, we will learn how to visualize one in Python. First, we need to install the module matplotlib-venn. Open the terminal or command prompt, and run the followin...

## BDA class 4 G+ hangout on air is on air

November 15, 2013
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Here. And here‘s the backstory. P.S. The damn mike was muted most of the time. Something always goes wrong! The post BDA class 4 G+ hangout on air is on air appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## Un peu plus près des étoiles (***)

November 15, 2013
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$p$

Il y a eu un gros buzz, récement autour du papier de Valen Johnson paru dans PNAS. L’article a été repris un peu partout (http://nature.com/news/, http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/absolutely-maybe/, http://arstechnica.com/science/ ou encore http://passeurdesciences.blog.lemonde.fr/ qui a repris l’information, en français). Et plusieurs personnes m’ont fait suivre des liens, en me demandant mon avis, par courriel ou via twitter. Je ne vais pas revenir sur l’étude (pour l’instant) ni sur les mauvaises lectures de l’étude, mais plutôt sur le buzz…

## How Countries Fare, 2010

November 15, 2013
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Originally posted on CoolStatsBlog:The Current Account Balance is a measure of a country’s “profitability”. It is the sum of profits (losses) made from trading with other countries, profits (losses) made from investments in other countries, and cash transfers, such as remittances from expatriates. World: Current Account Balance, 2010 As the infographic shows, there isn’t…

## Daily/monthly/yearly tallies for your data

November 15, 2013
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Say you have a dataset, where each row has a date or time, and something is recorded for that date and time. If each row is a unique date – great! If not, you may have rows with the same date, and you have to combine records for the same date to get a daily tally. […]

## BDA class G+ hangout another try

November 14, 2013
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Tomorrow (Thurs) 8h30 (Paris time) I will be teaching my Bayesian Data Analysis class (class4a.pdf and class4b.pdf, you can follow the slides here). We had problems earlier with the regular G+ hangout, so this time we’re trying the G+ On-Air Hangout which I think should work better. I’ll post a blog entry tomorrow with a […]The post BDA class G+ hangout another try appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

## The Leek group guide to sharing data with a data analyst to speed collaboration

November 14, 2013
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My group collaborates with many different scientists and the number one determinant of how fast we can turn around results is the status of the data we receive from our collaborators. If the data are well organized and all the … Continue reading →

## Calibration of p-value under variable selection: an example

November 14, 2013
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Very often people report p-values for linear regression estimates after performing variable selection step. Here is a simple simulation that shows that such a procedure might lead to wrong calibration of such tests.Consider a simple data generating pro...

## Statistics is the least important part of data science

November 14, 2013
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This came up already but I’m afraid the point got lost in the middle of our long discussion of Rachel and Cathy’s book. So I’ll say it again: There’s so much that goes on with data that is about computing, not statistics. I do think it would be fair to consider statistics (which includes sampling, […]The post Statistics is the least important part of data science appeared first on Statistical…

## Mathématiques de l’Assurance Non-Vie (2)

November 14, 2013
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« Dans ce contexte d’incertitude, il est particulièrement réconfortant de revenir aux sources, aux fondamentaux, c’est-à-dire aux mathématiques et de rappeler que le risque naît de l’aléa et s’appréhende grâce aux développements les plus avancés du calcul des probabilités. » (Claude Bébéar, dans la préface du tome 1) Après avoir été épuisé plusieurs semaines (voire plusieurs mois ?), une nouvelle impression du tome 2 de Mathématiques de l’Assurance Non-Vie, coécrit avec Michel…

## Loophole

November 14, 2013
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I think I should thank Marta (again!) for this post, as she made me think about it while we were riding together to the Stan workshop, in one of our now ("A XY", that is, as opposed to "B XY" when we used to do so all the time) rare joint outings on th...

## Bayesian essentials with R available on amazon

November 14, 2013
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Bayesian Essentials with R is now available both as an e-book and as a hardcover book on amazon.com!Filed under: Books, R, Statistics, University life Tagged: Bayesian Core, Bayesian Essentials with R, e-book, Jean-Michel Marin, R, Springer-Verlag

## What will I do on my Caribbean vacation? Teach data mining, of course!

November 14, 2013
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Monday, November 18th at the Radisson Hotel Barbados. Presented by Michael Berry of Tripadvisor and David Weisman of the University of Massachusetts.  Sponsored by Purple Leaf Communications. Registration and information here.

## T. Kepler: “Trouble with ‘Trouble at the Lab’?” (guest post)

November 14, 2013
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Tom Kepler’s guest post arose in connection with my November 9 post & comments. Professor Thomas B. Kepler Department of Microbiology Department of Mathematics & Statistics Boston University School of Medicine There is much to say about the article in the Economist, but the first is to note that it is far more balanced than […]

## What makes us happy? Lets look at data to find out.

November 13, 2013
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I've had a lot of different jobs over the past 4 years, and I've had some incredible experiences along the way. Lately, I've been struggling with what to do next. Or perhaps more accurately, I've been struggling with how to decide what ...

## What makes us happy? Let’s look at data to find out.

November 13, 2013
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I’ve had a lot of different jobs over the past 4 years, and I’ve had some incredible experiences along the way. Lately, I’ve been struggling with what to do next. Or perhaps more accurately, I’ve been struggling with how to de...