Sending text messages at random times using python

November 15, 2014
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Sending text messages at random times using python

Given my interest for applying statistics and analytics to most (if not all of the) quantifiable aspects of my life, when I learned about self-tracking, and the associated 'Quantified Self' movement, it should come as no surprise to anyone that… Continue reading →

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Why the Law of Likelihood is bankrupt–as an account of evidence

November 15, 2014
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Why the Law of Likelihood is bankrupt–as an account of evidence

There was a session at the Philosophy of Science Association meeting last week where two of the speakers, Greg Gandenberger and Jiji Zhang had insightful things to say about the “Law of Likelihood” (LL)[i]. Recall from recent posts here and here that the (LL) regards data x as evidence supporting H1 over H0   iff Pr(x; H1) > Pr(x; H0). On many accounts, […]

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Times have changed (sportswriting edition)

November 15, 2014
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Times have changed (sportswriting edition)

The name Tom Boswell came up in a recent comment thread and I was moved to reread his 1987 article, “99 Reasons Why Baseball Is Better Than Football.” The phrase “head injury” did not come up once. Boswell refers a few times to football’s dangerous nature (for example, “98. When a baseball player gets knocked […] The post Times have changed (sportswriting edition) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Le Monde puzzle [#887]

November 14, 2014
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Le Monde puzzle [#887]

A simple combinatorics Le Monde mathematical puzzle: N is a golden number if the sequence {1,2,…,N} can be reordered so that the sum of any consecutive pair is a perfect square. What are the golden numbers between 1 and 25? Indeed, from an R programming point of view, all I have to do is to […]

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Frente Amplio Winnability

November 14, 2014
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Frente Amplio Winnability

Uruguayan voters are about to give the Frente Amplio a third mandate this November 30th. The following graph shows how the outcome would look like if the election were held this week (now cast). Although it's just a momentum, this picture might hold till the election day. The picture plots the probability density function (pdf) […]

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Best job ever

November 14, 2014
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Best job ever

The job advert for the postdoc position in our MRC-funded project on the Regression Discontinuity Design is finally out.Aidan has done a fantastic job in his little over a year in the position, but he's now moved to a lectureship in our department...

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In Praise of Substantive Expertise in Data Science

November 14, 2014
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In Praise of Substantive Expertise in Data Science

Substantive expertise makes it into the Data Science Venn Diagram from DataCamp's infographic on how to become a data scientist. It's one of the three circles of equal size along with programming and statistics. Regrettably, substantive expertise ...

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Cointegration – The Definitive Overview

November 14, 2014
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Cointegration – The Definitive Overview

Recently released, this discussion paper from Søren Johansen, will give you the definitive overview of cointegration that you've been waiting for.Titiled simply, "Time Series: Cointegration", Johansen's paper has been prepared for inclusion ...

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Runoff in Uruguay: FA is expected to win a third mandate

November 14, 2014
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Runoff in Uruguay: FA is expected to win a third mandate

Within 2 weeks, electors in Uruguay will vote for the runoff election between FA and PN. According to the polling data being published, it's very likely Uruguayans will give FA a third mandate. I run the following forecast model which suggest that the difference between the two parties are huge; even greater than the number […]

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VIS 2014 – Friday

November 14, 2014
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Wow, that was fast! VIS 2014 is already over. This year’s last day was shorter than in previous years, with just one morning session and then the closing session with the capstone talk. Running Roundup We started the day with another run. Friday saw the most runners (six), bringing the total for the week to … Continue reading VIS 2014 – Friday

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“The Statistical Crisis in Science”: My talk in the psychology department Monday 17 Nov at noon

November 14, 2014
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Monday 17 Nov at 12:10pm in Schermerhorn room 200B, Columbia University: Top journals in psychology routinely publish ridiculous, scientifically implausible claims, justified based on “p < 0.05.” And this in turn calls into question all sorts of more plausible, but not necessarily true, claims, that are supported by this same sort of evidence. To put […] The post “The Statistical Crisis in Science”: My talk in the psychology department Monday…

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VIS 2014 – Thursday

November 14, 2014
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Thursday was the penultimate day of VIS 2014. I ended up only going to InfoVis sessions, and unfortunately missed a panel I had been planning to see. The papers were a bit more mixed, but there were agains some really good ones. InfoVis: Evaluation Thursday was off to a slow start (partly because of the … Continue reading VIS 2014 – Thursday

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Can we try to make an adjustment?

November 14, 2014
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Can we try to make an adjustment?

In most of our data science teaching (including our book Practical Data Science with R) we emphasize the deliberately easy problem of “exchangeable prediction.” We define exchangeable prediction as: given a series of observations with two distinguished classes of variables/observations denoted “x”s (denoting control variables, independent variables, experimental variables, or predictor variables) and “y” (denoting … Continue reading Can we try to make an adjustment? → Related posts: Don’t use…

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Frente Amplio Winnability

November 14, 2014
By
Frente Amplio Winnability

Uruguayan voters are about to give give Frente Amplio a third mandate this November 30th. The following graph shows how the outcome would look like if the election were held this week. The undecided voters were distributed accordingly to each party as ...

Read more »

Frente Amplio Winnability

November 14, 2014
By
Frente Amplio Winnability

Uruguayan voters are about to give give Frente Amplio a third mandate this November 30th. The following graph shows how the outcome would look like if the election were held this week. The undecided voters were distributed accordingly to each party as ...

Read more »

Runoff in Uruguay: FA is expected to win a third mandate

November 14, 2014
By
Runoff in Uruguay: FA is expected to win a third mandate

Within 2 weeks, electors in Uruguay will vote for the runoff election between FA and PN. According to the polling data being published, it’s very likely Uruguayans will give FA a third mandate. I run the following forecast model which suggest that th...

Read more »

Frente Amplio Winnability

November 14, 2014
By
Frente Amplio Winnability

Uruguayan voters are about to give give Frente Amplio a third mandate this November 30th. The following graph shows how the outcome would look like if the election were held this week. The undecided voters were distributed accordingly to each party as ...

Read more »

Runoff in Uruguay: FA is expected to win a third mandate

November 14, 2014
By
Runoff in Uruguay: FA is expected to win a third mandate

Within 2 weeks, electors in Uruguay will vote for the runoff election between FA and PN. According to the polling data being published, it’s very likely Uruguayans will give FA a third mandate. I run the following forecast model which suggest that th...

Read more »

Frente Amplio Winnability

November 14, 2014
By
Frente Amplio Winnability

Uruguayan voters are about to give give Frente Amplio a third mandate this November 30th. The following graph shows how the outcome would look like if the election were held this week. The undecided voters were distributed accordingly to each party as ...

Read more »

Runoff in Uruguay: FA is expected to win a third mandate

November 14, 2014
By
Runoff in Uruguay: FA is expected to win a third mandate

Within 2 weeks, electors in Uruguay will vote for the runoff election between FA and PN. According to the polling data being published, it’s very likely Uruguayans will give FA a third mandate. I run the following forecast model which suggest that th...

Read more »

Frente Amplio Winnability

November 14, 2014
By
Frente Amplio Winnability

Uruguayan voters are about to give give Frente Amplio a third mandate this November 30th. The following graph shows how the outcome would look like if the election were held this week. The undecided voters were distributed accordingly to each party as ...

Read more »

Runoff in Uruguay: FA is expected to win a third mandate

November 14, 2014
By
Runoff in Uruguay: FA is expected to win a third mandate

Within 2 weeks, electors in Uruguay will vote for the runoff election between FA and PN. According to the polling data being published, it’s very likely Uruguayans will give FA a third mandate. I run the following forecast model which suggest that th...

Read more »

Frente Amplio Winnability

November 14, 2014
By
Frente Amplio Winnability

Uruguayan voters are about to give give Frente Amplio a third mandate this November 30th. The following graph shows how the outcome would look like if the election were held this week. The undecided voters were distributed accordingly to each party as ...

Read more »


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