More statins for everybody!

February 15, 2014
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More statins for everybody!

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) says in draft guidance which now goes out to consultation that the threshold for GPs to prescribe statins to their patients should halved from the current value of a ...

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The Kernel of Truth in Frequentism: How it’s Implemented Mathematically

February 15, 2014
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From the previous post we need to construct a (Baysian) probability distribution from which has a high probability manifold such that for most elements in . Although simple in conception it’s difficult to see how it’s carried out or how it ...

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Some Things You Should Know About the Jarque-Bera Test

February 15, 2014
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Some Things You Should Know About the Jarque-Bera Test

What test do you usually use if you want to test if the errors of your regression model are normally distributed? I bet it's the Jarque-Bera (1982, 1987) test. After all, it's a standard feature in pretty well every econometrics package. And with very ...

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Mary, Mary, why ya buggin

February 15, 2014
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Mary, Mary, why ya buggin

In our Cliff thread from yesterday, sociologist Philip Cohen pointed to his discussions in the decline in the popularity of the name Mary. One thing that came up was the traditional trendiness of girls’ names. So I thought I’d share my thoughts from a couple of years ago, as reported by David Leonhardt: Andrew Gelman, […]The post Mary, Mary, why ya buggin appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Guns are the Tools that People Use Most Often to Kill People

February 15, 2014
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Guns are the Tools that People Use Most Often to Kill People

Intro. A good friend has a habit of re-posting on facebook annoying and silly claims about guns. No, I don't want to de-friend him. Mostly I ban the source of the claims but he finds new sources of material. When I attempt to verify some claims, the ...

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Guns are the Tools that People Use Most Often to Kill People

February 15, 2014
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Guns are the Tools that People Use Most Often to Kill People

Intro. A good friend has a habit of re-posting on facebook annoying and silly claims about guns. No, I don't want to de-friend him. Mostly I ban the source of the claims but he finds new sources of material. When I attempt to verify some claims, the ...

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The Kernel of Truth in Frequentism: The Intuitive Idea

February 14, 2014
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In what sense is Frequentism a special case of Bayesian ideas? The original sin of Frequentism was to take a very special example and claim it was the only example. So it’s worth detailing this special case to see how it fits in the larger Bayesi...

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P-Values …… Again!

February 14, 2014
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P-Values …… Again!

I've had posts about p-values in the past - e.g., see here, here, here, and here. Well, this pesky little devil is back in the news again. Every now and the the "p-value bashers" emerge from the swamp, and this past week it happened again - in Nature.W...

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On the scalability of statistical procedures: why the p-value bashers just don’t get it.

February 14, 2014
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Executive Summary The problem is not p-values it is a fundamental shortage of data analytic skill. In general it makes sense to reduce researcher degrees of freedom for non-experts, but any choice of statistic, when used by many untrained people, … Continue reading →

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Improved icons for Bayesian and frequentist analysis

February 14, 2014
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Improved icons for Bayesian and frequentist analysis

This post presents icons that attempt to capture the essence of Bayesian and frequentist analysis. There are four icons: Bayesian and frequentist approaches to decisions about null values, and Bayesian and frequentist approaches to parameter estimation...

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SharpER, Connecting R to Excel

February 14, 2014
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I have for sometime used the statistical package R  for the majority of data analysis tasks. Typically though data is sent as an Excel file, which is straight froward to import into R but often I want to have a quick look at the data to get a feel for...

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The popularity of certain baby names is falling off the clifffffffffffff

February 14, 2014
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Ubs writes: I was looking at baby name data last night and I stumbled upon something curious. I follow the baby names blog occasionally but not regularly, so I’m not sure if it’s been noticed before. Let me present it like this: Take the statement… Of the top 100 boys and top 100 girls names, […]The post The popularity of certain baby names is falling off the clifffffffffffff appeared first…

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Googling errors

February 14, 2014
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Googling errors

@roguelynn tweeted the other day: If attendees of this weekend’s intro to python workshop leave with one thing, it’ll be to Google your error messages first and foremost. I had just talked about the technique in my Tools for Reproducible Research course, and I had a few recent examples. Gtk-WARNING **: cannot open display: I […]

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CmdStan, RStan, PyStan v2.2.0

February 14, 2014
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The Stan Development Team is happy to announce CmdStan, RStan, and PyStan v2.2.0. As usual, more info is available on the Stan Home Page. This is a minor release with a mix of bug fixes and features. For a full list of changes, please see the v2.2.0 milestone on stan-dev/stan’s issue tracker. Some of the […]The post CmdStan, RStan, PyStan v2.2.0 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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An example of why data will not end debate

February 14, 2014
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An example of why data will not end debate

One oft-repeated "self-evident" tenet of Big Data is that data end all debate. Except if you have ever worked for a real company (excluding those ruled by autocrats), and put data on the table, you know that the data do not end anything. Reader Ben M. sent me to this blog post by Benedict Evans, showing a confusing chart showing how Apple has "passed" Microsoft. Evans used to be a…

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More on Writing, Guest Post

February 14, 2014
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This from Dr. Robert Bolan of the LAGLC.  I agree with Rob’s choices of writing references. Strunk & White and Zinnser are indispensable and, perhaps not so surprisingly, they are written well enough so they actually can be read and not only use...

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Sure thing principle

February 13, 2014
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Sure thing principle

I've been a bit busy lately $-$ teaching, plus other more or less interesting things (well: some really interesting, some much less so) $-$ and thus I haven't really written many posts recently. But I still try to check my own blog roll to see whether ...

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Congratulations to Loretta Mester, New President of The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

February 13, 2014
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Congratulations to Loretta Mester, New President of The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Loretta is presently the Director of Research at the Philadelphia Fed, and she will replace Cleveland's Sandra Pianalto effective June 1. She has been a stunningly effective research director in Philadelphia; indeed her loss is a terrible blow to FRB P...

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How we Spend: Presenting Economic Statistics as a Narrative Infographic

February 13, 2014
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How we Spend: Presenting Economic Statistics as a Narrative Infographic

How We Spend [bloomberg.com] by Matthew C. Klein of Bloomberg Visual Data is narrative and visually engaging "interactive infographic" of nevertheless dry and boring data. The full-window infographic consists of a collection of interactive line graph...

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The World of Statistics

February 13, 2014
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The World of Statistics

Many of you will know that 2013 was "The Year of Statistics". A large number of special events celebrated this fact. What you may not know is that the "Statistics2013 organisation has now been transformed into "The World of Statistics".This recent piec...

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Data, Datum

February 13, 2014
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Ce soir, je quitte ma cabane d’ermite pour intervenir dans la conférence Big Data: Big Brother organisé au Cœur des Sciences, où un peu plus de trois cent personnes se sont inscrites en quelques heures. On va parler de data. Et depuis, je me ...

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loess explained in a GIF

February 13, 2014
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loess explained in a GIF

Local regression (loess) is one of the statistical procedures I most use. Here is a movie showing how it works

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Hat tip to the Times editors

February 13, 2014
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While I wasn't happy with how the New York Times business page covered the recent unemployment report (link), I was pleasantly surprised to see this editorial today titled "Making College Pay". Here are the key sentences: The recent jobless rate for college graduates ages 25 and older was 3.2 percent, and their median pay at full-time, full-year jobs was $75,300 for men and $53,700 for women. That is a far…

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