House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
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House Effects in Argentinian polling

I’ve already posted on “house effects”, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another. In this post, I look specifically at these house effects, and show which polling organisations over or under...

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3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

October 24, 2015
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3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago… MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: October 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one, and there are two such groupings this month. The 10/18 “Query” gave rise to a […]

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Meet the 1 doctor in America who has no opinion on whether cigarette smoking contributes to lung cancer in human beings.

October 24, 2015
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Meet the 1 doctor in America who has no opinion on whether cigarette smoking contributes to lung cancer in human beings.

Paul Alper writes: In your blog today you once again criticize Tol’s putative results regarding global warming: “At no point did Tol apologize or thank the people who pointed out his errors; instead he lashed out, over and over again. Irresponsible indeed.” Well, here is something far more irresponsible and depressing. Read Susan Perry: Why […] The post Meet the 1 doctor in America who has no opinion on whether…

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Diagnosing the Multilevel Marketting Trap: How MLM Survives Only through New Entrants

October 24, 2015
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Diagnosing the Multilevel Marketting Trap: How MLM Survives Only through New Entrants

Over the years I have been amazed by how many friends of mine who seem otherwise very intelligent have gotten involved in Multilevel Marketing (MLM).And, as most people who have been involved with these organizations, all of my friends involved in thes...

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Bayes meets Fourier

October 23, 2015
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Bayes meets Fourier

Joseph Fourier never met Thomas Bayes—Fourier was born in 1768, seven years after Bayes died.  But recently I have been exploring connections between the Bayes filter and the Fourier transform. By "Bayes filter", I don't mean spam filtering usin...

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Victor Zarnowitz and the Jewish Diaspora

October 23, 2015
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Let me be clear: I'm a German/Irish Philadelphia Catholic (with a bit more mixed in...), a typical present-day product of nineteenth-century U.S. immigration. So what do I really know about the Jewish experience, and why am I fit to pontificate (so to ...

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3 reasons why you can’t always use predictive performance to choose among models

October 23, 2015
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3 reasons why you can’t always use predictive performance to choose among models

A couple years ago Wei and I published a paper, Difficulty of selecting among multilevel models using predictive accuracy, in which we . . . well, we discussed the difficulty of selecting among multilevel models using predictive accuracy. The paper happened as follows. We’d been fitting hierarchical logistic regressions of poll data and I had […] The post 3 reasons why you can’t always use predictive performance to choose among…

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Is it worth the drama?

October 23, 2015
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Is it worth the drama?

Quite the eye-catching chart this: The original accompanied this article in the Wall Street Journal about avian flu outbreaks in the U.S. The point of the chart appears to be the peak in the flu season around May. The overlapping...

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Statisticians ruin the day again, this time with a retraction

October 22, 2015
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Statisticians ruin the day again, this time with a retraction

Authors retract second study about medical uses of honey - Retraction Watch at Retraction Watch: For the second time, authors of manuscripts have had to retract their papers because of serious data analysis errors. While the details of the actual error...

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3 postdoc opportunities you can’t miss—here in our group at Columbia! Apply NOW, don’t miss out!

October 22, 2015
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3 postdoc opportunities you can’t miss—here in our group at Columbia!  Apply NOW, don’t miss out!

Hey, just once, the Buzzfeed-style hype is appropriate. We have 3 amazing postdoc opportunities here, and you need to apply NOW. Here’s the deal: we’re working on some amazing projects. You know about Stan and associated exciting projects in computational statistics. There’s the virtual database query, which is the way I like to describe our […] The post 3 postdoc opportunities you can’t miss—here in our group at Columbia! Apply…

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The answer to my previous question

October 22, 2015
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1. The post The answer to my previous question appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Tableau Papers at IEEE VIS 2015

October 22, 2015
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Tableau Papers at IEEE VIS 2015

My colleagues at Tableau Research have three papers at InfoVis next week. They cover guided data exploration, color theory, and data partitioning. Here’s a little preview. Voyager: Exploratory Analysis via Faceted Browsing of Visualization Recommendations This is a collaboration between Anushka Anand and Jock Mackinlay at Tableau and some of Jeff Heer’s group at the University … Continue reading Tableau Papers at IEEE VIS 2015

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What’s the probability that Daniel Murphy hits a home run tonight?

October 21, 2015
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What’s the probability that Daniel Murphy hits a home run tonight?

20% 15%, that’s my quick empirical estimate. Where do I get this? I googled *most home runs hit in consecutive games* and found this list of players who’ve hit home runs in at least six consecutive games. There are 20 such cases; 14 of these streaks ended at six games, and 6 of these streaks […] The post What’s the probability that Daniel Murphy hits a home run tonight? appeared…

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It’s all about the denominator: Rajiv Sethi and Sendhil Mullainathan in a statistical debate on racial bias in police killings

October 21, 2015
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It’s all about the denominator:  Rajiv Sethi and Sendhil Mullainathan in a statistical debate on racial bias in police killings

Rajiv Sethi points me to this column by Sendhil Mullainathan, who writes: Tamir Rice. Eric Garner. Walter Scott. Michael Brown. Each killing raises a disturbing question: Would any of these people have been killed by police officers if they had been white? . . . There is ample statistical evidence of large and persistent racial […] The post It’s all about the denominator: Rajiv Sethi and Sendhil Mullainathan in a…

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Raw data and the incurious

October 21, 2015
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Raw data and the incurious

The following chart caught my eye when it appeared in the Wall Street Journal this month: This is a laborious design; much sweat has been poured into it. It's a chart that requires the reader to spend time learning to...

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Simulate contingency tables with fixed row and column sums in SAS

October 21, 2015
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Simulate contingency tables with fixed row and column sums in SAS

How do you simulate a contingency table that has a specified row and column sum? Last week I showed how to simulate a random 2 x 2 contingency table when the marginal frequencies are specified. This article generalizes to random r x c frequency tables (also called cross-tabulations) that have the same marginal row […] The post Simulate contingency tables with fixed row and column sums in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

October 21, 2015
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Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

The model indicates the official candidate has some chance of making it right way this Sunday, but the odds are short. Predictions The model I’m using indicates the official candidate has some chance of making it right way this Sunday, avoiding a ...

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Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

October 21, 2015
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Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

The model indicates the official candidate has some chance of making it right way this Sunday, but the odds are short. Predictions The model I'm using indicates the official candidate has some chance of making it right way this Sunday, avoiding...

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Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

October 21, 2015
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Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

The model indicates the official candidate have chance of making it right way this Sunday, but the odds are short. Predictions The model I’m using indicates the official candidate have some chance of making it right way this Sunday, avoiding a run...

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Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

October 21, 2015
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Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

The model indicates the official candidate have chance of making it right way this Sunday, but the odds are short. Predictions The model I’m using indicates the official candidate have some chance of making it right way this Sunday, avoiding a run...

Read more »

Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

October 21, 2015
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Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

The model indicates the official candidate have chance of making it right way this Sunday, but the odds are short. Predictions The model I’m using indicates the official candidate have some chance of making it right way this Sunday, avoiding a run...

Read more »

Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

October 21, 2015
By
Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

The model indicates the official candidate have chance of making it right way this Sunday, but the odds are short. Predictions The model I’m using indicates the official candidate have some chance of making it right way this Sunday, avoiding a run...

Read more »

Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

October 21, 2015
By
Argentina’s 2015 Presidential Election Forecasts

The model indicates the official candidate have chance of making it right way this Sunday, but the odds are short. Predictions The model I’m using indicates the official candidate have some chance of making it right way this Sunday, avoiding a run...

Read more »


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