Joint Statistical Meeting 2013

July 23, 2013
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Joint Statistical Meeting 2013

Hey, In a few weeks (August 3-8) I’ll attend the Joint Statistical Meeting in Montréal, Canada. According to Wikipedia it’s been held every year since 1840 and now gathers more than 5,000 participants! I’ll talk in a session organized by Scott Schmidler, entitled Adaptive Monte Carlo Methods for Bayesian Computation; you can find the session […]

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Top 5 stat papers since 2000?

July 22, 2013
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Jeff Leek writes: I just wrote this post about what the 5 most influential papers in statistics from 2000-2010. I would be really curious to know your list too? Scarily enough I can’t think of any truly influential papers from that decade. I suppose this means I’m getting old! P.S. I did once make a […]The post Top 5 stat papers since 2000? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Hierarchical Linear Model

July 22, 2013
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Hierarchical Linear Model

Linear regression probably is the most familiar technique of data analysis, but its application is often hamstrung by model assumptions. For instance, if the data has a hierarchical structure, quite often the assumptions of linear regression are feas...

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David vs. Goliath in Men’s Professional Tennis

July 22, 2013
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David vs. Goliath in Men’s Professional Tennis

David dances lightly from side to side, his small feet stirring up wisps of dust from the clay surface. Twirling his racket in anticipation, he peers intently at his colossal foe hoping to spot some clue where the first serve will go. Across the net is...

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What are the 5 most influential statistics papers of 2000-2010?

July 22, 2013
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A few folks here at Hopkins were just reading the comments of our post on  awesome young/senior statisticians. It was cool to see the diversity of opinions and all the impressive people working in our field. We realized that another … Continue reading →

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GMM, the "Strange American Estimator"

July 22, 2013
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At three separate recent non-American conferences, I heard three separate European econometricians refer to generalized method of moments (GMM) as a "strange American estimator." Needless to say, that raised my eyebrows. One doesn't hear that phrase to...

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Mugatu is a health economist

July 22, 2013
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Mugatu is a health economist

When Hansel comes out to save the day preventing "Derek [Zoolander] to off the prime minister of Micronesia", the evil Jacobim Mugatu says "It's that damn Hansel – He's so hot right now!".Quite in a similar fashion(?), it seems as though in the ...

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My talks that were scheduled for Tues at the Data Skeptics meetup and Wed at the Open Statistical Programming meetup

July 22, 2013
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Statistical Methods and Data Skepticism Data analysis today is dominated by three paradigms: null hypothesis significance testing, Bayesian inference, and exploratory data analysis. There is concern that all these methods lead to overconfidence on the part of researchers and the general public, and this concern has led to the new “data skepticism” movement. But the […]The post My talks that were scheduled for Tues at the Data Skeptics meetup and…

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Book quiz data geekery, plus another free book

July 22, 2013
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Book quiz data geekery, plus another free book

The winner of the Numbersense Book Quiz has been announced. See here. GOOD NEWS: McGraw-Hill is sponsoring another quiz. Same format. Another chance to win a signed book. Click here to go directly to the quiz. *** I did a...

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Another chance to win a signed book

July 22, 2013
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The winner of the Book Quiz is S. Vijay, from Austria. Congratulations! The answers are: (C), (B), (D). No sumo wrestlers in Numbersense (that was Freakonomics). Fewer law schools reported employment rates after graduation. Fifty-five percent of the jobs were full-time, long-term positions requiring a JD. I did a little geeking on the quiz data on the sister blog (here). But most importantly... *** If you missed the book giveaway…

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The inverse CDF method for simulating from a distribution

July 22, 2013
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The inverse CDF method for simulating from a distribution

There are many techniques for generating random variates from a specified probability distribution such as the normal, exponential, or gamma distribution. However, one technique stands out because of its generality and simplicity: the inverse CDF sampling technique. If you know the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a probability distribution, then [...]

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GED Viz, A Data Storytelling Tool

July 22, 2013
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GED Viz, A Data Storytelling Tool

I had the honor and pleasure to keynote an event in Berlin recently that introduced a new visualization tool to the world, GED Viz. What makes it stand out from other web-based visualization tools is its focus on particular data, and the ability to create not just individual views, but little stories. GED stands for Global Economic Dynamics, which explains where the motivation for the project actually came from: the…

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Sunday data/statistics link roundup (7/21/2013)

July 22, 2013
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Let's shake up the social sciences is a piece in the New York Times by Nicholas Christakis who rose to fame by claiming that obesity is contagious. Gelman responds that he thinks maybe Christakis got a little ahead of himself. … Continue reading →

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Conceptualising Probability

July 21, 2013
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Conceptualising Probability

The problem with probability is that it doesn’t really exist. Certainly it never exists in the past. Probability is an invention we use to communicate our thoughts about how likely something is to happen. We have collectively agreed that 1 … Continue reading →

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Defensive political science responds defensively to an attack on social science

July 21, 2013
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Nicholas Christakis, a medical scientist perhaps best known for his controversial claim (see also here), based on joint work with James Fowler, that obesity is contagious, writes: The social sciences have stagnated. They offer essentially the same set of academic departments and disciplines that they have for nearly 100 years: sociology, economics, anthropology, psychology and […]The post Defensive political science responds defensively to an attack on social science appeared first…

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Do the Simpsons characters like each other?

July 21, 2013
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Do the Simpsons characters like each other?

One day, while I was walking around Cambridge, I had a random thought — how do the characters on the Simpsons feel about each other? It doesn’t take long to figure out how Homer feels about Flanders (hint: he doesn’t always like him), or how Burns feels about everyone, but how does Marge feel about Bart? How does Flanders feel about Homer? I then realized that I work with algorithms…

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Modeling Match Results in La Liga Using a Hierarchical Bayesian Poisson Model: Part one.

July 21, 2013
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Modeling Match Results in La Liga Using a Hierarchical Bayesian Poisson Model: Part one.

This is a slightly modified version of my submission to the UseR 2013 Data Analysis Contest which I had the fortune of winning :) The purpose of the contest was to do something interesting with a dataset consisting of the match results from the last ...

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Do the Simpsons characters like each other?

July 21, 2013
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Do the Simpsons characters like each other?

One day, while I was walking around Cambridge, I had a random thought -- how do the characters on the Simpsons feel about each other? It doesn't take long to figure out how Homer feels about Flanders (hint: he doesn't always like him), or how Burns feels about everyone, but how does Marge feel about Bart? How does Flanders feel about Homer? I then realized that I work with algorithms…

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Bayes related

July 21, 2013
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Dave Decker writes: I’ve seen some Bayes related things recently that might make for interesting fodder on your blog. There are two books, teaching Bayesian analysis from a programming perspective. And also a “web application for data analysis using powerful Bayesian statistical methods.” I took a look. The first book is Think Bayes: Bayesian Statistics […]The post Bayes related appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Did the pattern of rain change in the last 100 years?

July 21, 2013
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Did the pattern of rain change in the last 100 years?

Last week I showed rain data from six stations in Netherlands years 1906 till now. The obvious next question is; did it change? A surprisingly difficult question. The data is not normal distributed, but it is time-correlated, location correlated.T...

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My first Bioconductor conference (2013)

July 21, 2013
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My first Bioconductor conference (2013)

The BioC 2013 conference was held from July 17 to 19. I attended this conference for my first time, mainly because I'm working at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center this summer, and the conference venue was just downstairs! No flights, no hotel...

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Guest Post: Larry Laudan. Why Presuming Innocence is Not a Bayesian Prior

July 21, 2013
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Guest Post: Larry Laudan. Why Presuming Innocence is Not a Bayesian Prior

“Why presuming innocence has nothing to do with assigning low prior probabilities to the proposition that defendant didn’t commit the crime” by Professor Larry Laudan Philosopher of Science* Several of the comments to the July 17 post about the presumption of innocence suppose that jurors are asked to believe, at the outset of a trial, […]

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Le Monde puzzle [#825]

July 20, 2013
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Le Monde puzzle [#825]

The current puzzle is the last one before the summer break and not exciting enough to take along: Take the first ten digits, create five pairs out of those, and for each pair (x,y) derive the quantity (min(x,y)+1.5max(x,y)). What is the collection of pairs that maximises the product of those quantities? I wrote the following […]

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