Thumbs Up; Thumbs Down

March 24, 2014
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Thumbs Up; Thumbs Down

People say and do the darnedest things! I'll let you assign your own "thumbs up" and "thumbs down" to the following gems. I imagine you can guess where I stand on each of them!'But which is a bigger menace to society, laziness about data or lazine...

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On deck this month

March 24, 2014
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Actually, more like the next month and a half . . . I just have this long backlog so I thought I might as well share it with you: Empirical implications of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models A statistical graphics course and statistical graphics advice What property is important in a risk prediction model? Discrimination […]The post On deck this month appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Video: What’s new in SAS/IML 13.1

March 24, 2014
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Video: What’s new in SAS/IML 13.1

SAS/IML 13.1 shipped a few months ago. I was asked to produce a video that highlights some of the new features in SAS/IML 13.1. In this video I describe several changes to the language before introducing the new built-in subroutines that create ODS statistical graphs. If your browser does not […]

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Estimating Variance as a Function of Treatment Rank Class

March 24, 2014
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Imagine that we have a treatment that we give to five different groups of individuals.  Each individual has a variable response which as a unique mean and variance based on the treatment.  We do not know how the means will change but we belie...

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Reminder: Abstract submission for the 2014 ‘R in Insurance’ conference will close this Friday

March 24, 2014
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Reminder: Abstract submission for the 2014 ‘R in Insurance’ conference will close this Friday

Don't forget, this is the final week you can submit an abstract for the second R in Insurance conference. For more details see http://www.rininsurance.com and perhaps for inspiration review last year's programme.

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Seymour Geisser and Me

March 24, 2014
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A few stories from graduate school at the University of Minnesota School of Statistics where Seymour Geisser was head. I didn't have as many interactions with Seymour as some folks did, but his philosophy certainly influenced me. Perhaps I'll detail hi...

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Seymour Geisser and Me

March 24, 2014
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A few stories from graduate school at the University of Minnesota School of Statistics where Seymour Geisser was head. I didn't have as many interactions with Seymour as some folks did, but his philosophy certainly influenced me. Perhaps I'll detail hi...

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Stories Are Gateways Into Worlds

March 24, 2014
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Stories Are Gateways Into Worlds

Moritz Stefaner recently wrote a posting titled Worlds, not stories. He basically argues that while there is a clear role for the designer of a visualization, the result should be a world that users can explore, rather than a story that they’re told. I have a few things to say about this, and will do so in two parts. This is part one.

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MCMC on zero measure sets

March 23, 2014
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MCMC on zero measure sets

Simulating a bivariate normal under the constraint (or conditional to the fact) that x²-y²=1 (a non-linear zero measure curve in the 2-dimensional Euclidean space) is not that easy: if running a random walk along that curve (by running a random walk on y and deducing x as x²=y²+1 and accepting with a Metropolis-Hastings ratio based […]

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Warning: Clusters May Appear More Separated in Textbooks than in Practice

March 23, 2014
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Warning: Clusters May Appear More Separated in Textbooks than in Practice

Clustering is the search for discontinuity achieved by sorting all the similar entities into the same piles and thus maximizing the separation between different piles. The latent class assumption makes the process explicit. What is the source of variat...

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Data Transfer Advice From Francis Smart

March 23, 2014
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Data Transfer Advice From Francis Smart

I always enjoy reading the posts by Francis Smart on his Econometrics by Simulation blog. A couple of days ago he wrote a nice piece titled, "It is Time for RData Files to Become the Standard for Data Transfer". Francis made some very good po...

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Greg Mankiw’s utility function

March 23, 2014
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From 2010: Greg Mankiw writes (link from Tyler Cowen): Without any taxes, accepting that editor’s assignment would have yielded my children an extra $10,000. With taxes, it yields only $1,000. In effect, once the entire tax system is taken into account, my family’s marginal tax rate is about 90 percent. Is it any wonder that […]The post Greg Mankiw’s utility function appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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The Trick to Statistics is to Restate Everything without the Phantoms

March 23, 2014
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Statistics is a such a mess that statisticians can barely utter a sentence without introducing all kinds of imaginary phantoms into the discussion. Novices often think these ghosts serve no purpose but to confuse the hell out of everyone. They might be...

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GAS and DCS Models: Tasty Stuff, and I’m Hungry for More

March 23, 2014
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GAS and DCS Models: Tasty Stuff, and I’m Hungry for More

Generalized Autoregressive Score (GAS) models, also known as Dynamic Conditional Score (DCS) models, are an important development. They extend significantly the scope of observation-driven models, with their simple closed-form likelihoods, in contrast ...

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Distribution Kinetics in JAGS

March 23, 2014
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Distribution Kinetics in JAGS

Chapter 19 of Rowland and Tozer (Clinical pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics, 4th edition) has distribution kinetics. I am examining problem 3. It is fairly easy, especially since essentially all formulas are on the same page under 'key relationship...

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Win probabilities during a sporting event

March 23, 2014
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Win probabilities during a sporting event

Todd Schneider writes: Apropos of your recent blog post about modeling score differential of basketball games, I thought you might enjoy a site I built,gambletron2000.com, that gathers real-time win probabilities from betting markets for most major sports (including NBA and college basketball). My original goal was to use the variance of changes in win probabilities […]The post Win probabilities during a sporting event appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Fallacies of statistics & statistics journalism, and how to avoid them: Summary & Slides Day #8 (Phil 6334)

March 23, 2014
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Fallacies of statistics & statistics journalism, and how to avoid them: Summary & Slides Day #8 (Phil 6334)

We spent the first half of Thursday’s seminar discussing the Fisher, Neyman, and E. Pearson “triad”[i]. So, since it’s Saturday night, join me in rereading for the nth time these three very short articles. The key issues were: error of the second kind, behavioristic vs evidential interpretations, and Fisher’s mysterious fiducial intervals. Although we often hear exaggerated accounts […]

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Potpourri of recent inquires about doing Bayesian data analysis

March 22, 2014
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I get a lot of email asking about the book and the blog. Too often, I say to myself, "That's interesting. I'll have to think about it and reply later." And then later never comes. My apologies to everyone to whom I have not yet replied. Below is a samp...

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Timeline of Statistics

March 22, 2014
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Timeline of Statistics

getstats In 2010 the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) launched the getstats campaign in order to bring statistics to various groups like …Continue reading →

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Timeline of Statistics

March 22, 2014
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Timeline of Statistics

getstats In 2010 the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) launched the getstats campaign in order to bring statistics to various groups like …Continue reading →

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Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life

March 22, 2014
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From 2011: Chapter 1 On Sunday we were over on 125 St so I stopped by the Jamaican beef patties place but they were closed. Jesus Taco was next door so I went there instead. What a mistake! I don’t know what Masanao and Yu-Sung could’ve been thinking. Anyway, then I had Jamaican beef patties […]The post Picking pennies in front of a steamroller: A parable comes to life appeared…

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Postdoc at Rennes on multilevel missing data imputation

March 22, 2014
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Julie Josse sends along this job announcement: A post-doctoral position is available in the applied mathematics department of Agrocampus Rennes. The postdoc will be funded by the Henri Lebesgue Center (see http://www.lebesgue.fr/) if the application is selected. Applicants are expected to send their application before 31 March 2014. The research focus is on development of […]The post Postdoc at Rennes on multilevel missing data imputation appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Using nls in place of the delta method

March 22, 2014
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This was originally posted at Point Mass Prior and features MathML. If you’re viewing from StatsBlogs the math probably won’t show up properly and it would be beneficial to view the post here. It’s been a while since my last post which was on using the delta method in R with a specific application to finding the ‘x’ value that corresponds to the maximum/minimum value in a quadratic regression. This…

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