I’ve already posted on “house effects”, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another. In this post, I look specifically at these house effects, and show which polling organisations over or under...

3 years ago… MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: October 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one, and there are two such groupings this month. The 10/18 “Query” gave rise to a […]

Paul Alper writes: In your blog today you once again criticize Tol’s putative results regarding global warming: “At no point did Tol apologize or thank the people who pointed out his errors; instead he lashed out, over and over again. Irresponsible indeed.” Well, here is something far more irresponsible and depressing. Read Susan Perry: Why […] The post Meet the 1 doctor in America who has no opinion on whether…

Let me be clear: I'm a German/Irish Philadelphia Catholic (with a bit more mixed in...), a typical present-day product of nineteenth-century U.S. immigration. So what do I really know about the Jewish experience, and why am I fit to pontificate (so to ...

A couple years ago Wei and I published a paper, Difficulty of selecting among multilevel models using predictive accuracy, in which we . . . well, we discussed the difficulty of selecting among multilevel models using predictive accuracy. The paper happened as follows. We’d been fitting hierarchical logistic regressions of poll data and I had […] The post 3 reasons why you can’t always use predictive performance to choose among…

Hey, just once, the Buzzfeed-style hype is appropriate. We have 3 amazing postdoc opportunities here, and you need to apply NOW. Here’s the deal: we’re working on some amazing projects. You know about Stan and associated exciting projects in computational statistics. There’s the virtual database query, which is the way I like to describe our […] The post 3 postdoc opportunities you can’t miss—here in our group at Columbia! Apply…

1. The post The answer to my previous question appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

My colleagues at Tableau Research have three papers at InfoVis next week. They cover guided data exploration, color theory, and data partitioning. Here’s a little preview. Voyager: Exploratory Analysis via Faceted Browsing of Visualization Recommendations This is a collaboration between Anushka Anand and Jock Mackinlay at Tableau and some of Jeff Heer’s group at the University … Continue reading Tableau Papers at IEEE VIS 2015

20% 15%, that’s my quick empirical estimate. Where do I get this? I googled *most home runs hit in consecutive games* and found this list of players who’ve hit home runs in at least six consecutive games. There are 20 such cases; 14 of these streaks ended at six games, and 6 of these streaks […] The post What’s the probability that Daniel Murphy hits a home run tonight? appeared…

Rajiv Sethi points me to this column by Sendhil Mullainathan, who writes: Tamir Rice. Eric Garner. Walter Scott. Michael Brown. Each killing raises a disturbing question: Would any of these people have been killed by police officers if they had been white? . . . There is ample statistical evidence of large and persistent racial […] The post It’s all about the denominator: Rajiv Sethi and Sendhil Mullainathan in a…

How do you simulate a contingency table that has a specified row and column sum? Last week I showed how to simulate a random 2 x 2 contingency table when the marginal frequencies are specified. This article generalizes to random r x c frequency tables (also called cross-tabulations) that have the same marginal row […] The post Simulate contingency tables with fixed row and column sums in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.