They say it because it’s true . . .

November 7, 2016
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. . . We really do have the best comment section on the internet. The post They say it because it’s true . . . appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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We’re still hiring at Monash

November 6, 2016
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We’re still hiring at Monash

We have another position available, this time for a lecturer (equivalent to an assistant professor tenure track in the US). The department covers a wide range of areas in statistics and econometrics, but for this position we are looking for someone wit...

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We’re still hiring at Monash

November 6, 2016
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We’re still hiring at Monash

We have another position available, this time for a lecturer (equivalent to an assistant professor tenure track in the US). The department covers a wide range of areas in statistics and econometrics, but for this position we are looking for someone with expertise in at least one of business analytics, data science, actuarial science, computational […]

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The BMST Package for Gretl

November 6, 2016
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The BMST Package for Gretl

As a follow-up to this recent post, I heard again from Artur Tarassow.You'll see from his email message below that he's extended his earlier work and has prepared a new package for Gretl called "Binary Models Specification Tests".It's really good to se...

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Different election forecasts not so different

November 6, 2016
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Different election forecasts not so different

Yeah, I know, I need to work some on the clickbait titles . . . Anyway, people keep asking me why different election forecasts are so different. At the time of this writing, Nate Silver gives Clinton a 66.2% [ugh! See Pedants Corner below] chance of winning the election while Drew Linzer, for example, gives […] The post Different election forecasts not so different appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Always take the weather with you…

November 5, 2016
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Always take the weather with you…

Last week, we were in lovely Andalusia $-$ it was Kobi's first half term holiday at school and so we decided to make the most of it. It was actually an awesome week $-$ wonderful weather, nice places and now it's really hard to go back to focus to work...

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Snakes in a Room

November 5, 2016
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Snakes in a Room

Teachers frequently use analogies when explaining new concepts. In fact, most people do. A good analogy can be quite eye-opening.The other day my wife was in the room while I was on the 'phone explaining to someone why we often like to apply BOTH the A...

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Why I prefer 50% rather than 95% intervals

November 5, 2016
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I prefer 50% to 95% intervals for 3 reasons: 1. Computational stability, 2. More intuitive evaluation (half the 50% intervals should contain the true value), 3. A sense that in aplications it’s best to get a sense of where the parameters and predicted values will be, not to attempt an unrealistic near-certainty. This came up […] The post Why I prefer 50% rather than 95% intervals appeared first on Statistical…

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November Reading

November 4, 2016
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November Reading

You'll see that this month's reading list relates, in part, to my two recent posts about Ted Anderson and David Cox.Acharya, A., M. Blackwell, & M. Sen, 2015. Explaining causal findings without bias: Detecting and assessing direct effects. RWP15-19...

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Modeling statewide presidential election votes through 2028

November 4, 2016
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Modeling statewide presidential election votes through 2028

David Leonhardt of the NYT asked a bunch of different people, including me, which of various Romney-won states in 2012 would be likely to be won by a Democrat in 2020, 2024, or 2028, and which of various Obama-won states would go for a Republican in any of those future years. If I’m going to […] The post Modeling statewide presidential election votes through 2028 appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Kahan: “On the Sources of Ordinary Science Knowledge and Ignorance”

November 4, 2016
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Dan Kahan points me to this paper: It is impossible to make sense of persistent controversy over certain forms of decision-relevant science without understanding what happens in the vastly greater number of cases in which members of the public converge on the best available evidence without misadventure. In order to live well—or just to live, […] The post Kahan: “On the Sources of Ordinary Science Knowledge and Ignorance” appeared first…

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How will the Times show election results next week? Will they give us a cliffhanger?

November 4, 2016
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How will the Times show election results next week? Will they give us a cliffhanger?

I don't know for sure how the New York Times will present election results next week; it's going to be as hard to predict as the outcome of the election! The Times just published a wonderful article describing all the...

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ratio-of-uniforms [#3]

November 3, 2016
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ratio-of-uniforms [#3]

Being still puzzled (!) by the ratio-of-uniform approach, mostly failing to catch its relevance for either standard distributions in a era when computing a cosine or an exponential is negligible, or non-standard distributions for which computing bounds and boundaries is out-of-reach, I kept searching for solutions that would include unbounded densities and still produce compact […]

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T. W. Anderson: 1918-2016

November 3, 2016
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T. W. Anderson: 1918-2016

Unfortunately, this post deals with the recent loss of one of the great statisticians of our time - Theodore (Ted) W. Anderson.Ted passed away on 17 September of this year, at the age of 98.I'm hardly qualified to discuss the numerous, path-breaking, c...

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StatPrize

November 3, 2016
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Check out this new prize, http://statprize.org/ (Thanks, Dave Giles, for informing me via your tweet.) It should be USD 1 Million, ahead of the Nobel, as statistics is a key part (arguably the key part) of the foundation on which every science builds....

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Michael Betancourt has made NUTS even more awesome and efficient!

November 3, 2016
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Michael Betancourt has made NUTS even more awesome and efficient!

In an beautiful new paper, Betancourt writes: The geometric foundations of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo implicitly identify the optimal choice of [tuning] parameters, especially the integration time. I then consider the practical consequences of these principles in both existing algorithms and a new implementation called Exhaustive Hamiltonian Monte Carlo [XMC] before demonstrating the utility of these […] The post Michael Betancourt has made NUTS even more awesome and efficient! appeared first…

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Bayesian meta-analysis of two proportions in random control trials

November 3, 2016
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Bayesian meta-analysis of two proportions in random control trials

For an article that's accepted pending final revision (available here at OSF), I developed a Bayesian meta-analysis of two proportions in random control trials. This blog post summarizes and links to the complete R scripts.We consider scenarios in whic...

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I Was Just Kidding……!

November 3, 2016
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I Was Just Kidding……!

Back in 2011 I wrote a post that I titled, "Dummies for Dummies". It began with the suggestion that I'd written a book of that name, and it included this mock-up of the "cover":(Thanks to former grad. student, Jacob Schwartz, for helping with...

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How to improve science reporting? Dan Vergano sez: It’s not about reality, it’s all about a salary

November 3, 2016
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I happened to be looking up some things on cat-owner Dan Kahan’s blog and I came across this interesting comment from 2013 that I’d not noticed before. The comment came from science journalist Dan Vergano, and it was in response to a post of Kahan that discussed an article of mine that had given advice […] The post How to improve science reporting? Dan Vergano sez: It’s not about reality,…

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Talking in class: improving discussion in maths and stats classes

November 3, 2016
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Talking in class: improving discussion in maths and stats classes

Maths is right or wrong – end of discussion  – or is it? In 1984 I was a tutor in Operations Research to second year university students. My own experience of being in tutorials at University had been less than inspiring, … Continue reading →

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All Those Misleading Election Maps

November 3, 2016
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All Those Misleading Election Maps

Would you make a bar chart where the length of the bar doesn't actually scale with the number being shown? Would you draw a line chart with the lines all over the place, not where the values actually are? Of course not. Yet somehow, every single election map works like that. Look at this map […]

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Science and personal decision making

November 3, 2016
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Science and personal decision making

Maryna Raskin interviews me on the replication crisis, power posing, and the role of speculative scientific theories in decision making. The post Science and personal decision making appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social...

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je reviendrai à Montréal [MCM 2017]

November 2, 2016
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je reviendrai à Montréal [MCM 2017]

Next summer of 2017, the biennial International Conference on Monte Carlo Methods and Applications (MCM) will take place in Montréal, Québec, Canada, on July 3-7. This is a mathematically-oriented meeting that works in alternance with MCqMC and that is “devoted to the study of stochastic simulation and Monte Carlo methods in general, from the theoretical […]

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