Cochrane on Research Reliability and Replication

December 28, 2015
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Check out John's new piece.  His views largely match mine.  Here's to the demand side!

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Correlation Isn’t Necessarily Transitive

December 28, 2015
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Correlation Isn’t Necessarily Transitive

If X is correlated with Y, and Y is correlated with Z, does it follow that X and Z are correlated?No, not necessarily. That is, the relationship of correlation isn't necessarily transitive.In a blog post from last year the Fields Medallist, Terrence Ta...

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Citation shocker: “The lifecycle of scholarly articles across fields of economic research”

December 28, 2015
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Citation shocker:  “The lifecycle of scholarly articles across fields of economic research”

David Backus writes: Check esp fig 2 here. He was pointing me to a post by Sebastian Galiani, Ramiro Galvez, and Maria Victoria Anauati called The lifecycle of scholarly articles across fields of economic research. And here’s fig 2: And, as usual, I duck all the interesting questions and move toward triviality: This should be […] The post Citation shocker: “The lifecycle of scholarly articles across fields of economic research”…

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Bounds for the Pearson Correlation Coefficient

December 27, 2015
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Bounds for the Pearson Correlation Coefficient

The correlation measure that students typically first encounter is actually Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficient. This coefficient is simply a standardized version of the covariance between two random variables (say, X and Y):  &n...

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There are 6 ways to get fired from Johnson & Johnson: (1) theft, (2) sexual harassment, (3) running an experiment without a control group, (4) keeping a gambling addict away from the casino, (5) chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, and (6) not covering up records of side effects of a drug you’re marketing to kids

December 27, 2015
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There are 6 ways to get fired from Johnson & Johnson: (1) theft, (2) sexual harassment, (3) running an experiment without a control group, (4) keeping a gambling addict away from the casino, (5) chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, and (6) not covering up records of side effects of a drug you’re marketing to kids

Paul Alper writes: Gorsky, it seems to me, dwarfs the villains you often write about. Here’s the background, from New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof: Risperdal is a billion-dollar antipsychotic medicine with real benefits — and a few unfortunate side effects. It can cause strokes among the elderly. And it can cause boys to grow […] The post There are 6 ways to get fired from Johnson & Johnson: (1)…

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Lessons from Bayesian disease diagnosis: Don’t over-interpret the Bayes factor, VERSION 2

December 27, 2015
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Lessons from Bayesian disease diagnosis: Don’t over-interpret the Bayes factor, VERSION 2

[This is a revised version of a previous post which is superseded by this post. This revision has corrected derivations, new R/JAGS code, and new diagrams.] Overview"Captain, the prior probability of thischaracter dying and leaving the showis...

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Comment of the week

December 26, 2015
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Comment of the week

From Elin: What’s most weird to me is the idea that living in a city that had a massive earthquake that caused tremendous loss of life and destruction of communities would somehow be the same thing as sitting on an inflatable pillow. Who thinks that...

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3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

December 26, 2015
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3 YEARS AGO (DECEMBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: December 2012. I am to mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog [1]. However, posts that are part of a “unit” or group of posts count as one, so I’m not really cheating with the 5 in red. The items in the “green” group can’t […]

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Gretl Update

December 26, 2015
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Gretl Update

The Gretl econometrics package is a great resource that I've blogged about from time to time. It's free to all users, but of a very high quality. Recently, I heard from Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti - one of the principals of Gretl. He wrote:"In ...

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Turbulent Studies, Rocky Statistics: Publicational Consequences of Experiencing Inferential Instability

December 26, 2015
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Turbulent Studies, Rocky Statistics: Publicational Consequences of Experiencing Inferential Instability

Someone writes in: In the most recent absurd embodiment paper on wobbly stools leading to wobbly relationship beliefs, Psych Sci asked for a second study with a large N. The authors performed it, found no effect and then performed a mediation analysis to recover the effect. It’s a good example for garden of forking paths […] The post Turbulent Studies, Rocky Statistics: Publicational Consequences of Experiencing Inferential Instability appeared first…

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More on the PACE (chronic fatigue syndrome study) scandal

December 25, 2015
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More on the PACE (chronic fatigue syndrome study) scandal

Last week we reported on the push to get the data released from that controversial PACE study on chronic fatigue syndrome. Julie Rehmeyer points to a news article with background on the story: Patients rapidly discovered serious scientific problems with the 2011 Lancet paper. Despite these errors, the study, known as the PACE trial, went […] The post More on the PACE (chronic fatigue syndrome study) scandal appeared first on…

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You’ll never guess how we answer this question: “Am I doing myself a disservice by being too idealistic in a corporate environment?”

December 24, 2015
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A student writes: I’m an undergrad, going into my 4th year. Over the course of my Business-Economics major and Gerontology minor, I’ve developed a burning interest in modeling and analysis and a smoldering distrust of most everything else in the field. I’m just finishing a summer internship I’ve spent the summer in the new Predictive […] The post You’ll never guess how we answer this question: “Am I doing myself…

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Modeling How Consumers Simplify the Purchase Process by Copying Others

December 23, 2015
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Modeling How Consumers Simplify the Purchase Process by Copying Others

A Flower That Fits the BillMarketing borrows the biological notion of coevolution to explain the progressive "fit" between products and consumers. While evolutionary time may seem a bit slow for product innovation and adoption, the same metaphor can be...

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In Love with Data

December 23, 2015
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In Love with Data

An amazing, year-long, analog data drawing project made by two women: Giorgia Lupi and Stefanie Posavec. ‘Each week we collect and measure a particular type of data about our lives, use this data to make a drawing on a postcard-sized sheet of paper, and then drop the postcard in an English “postbox” (Stefanie) or an American “mailbox” … Continue reading In Love with Data

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R sucks

December 23, 2015
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I’m doing an analysis and one of the objects I’m working on is a multidimensional array called “attitude.” I took a quick look: > dim(attitude) [1] 30 7 Huh? It’s not supposed to be 30 x 7. Whassup? I search through my scripts for a “attitude” but all I find is the three-dimensional array. Where […] The post R sucks appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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“Journalistic lapses at the New York Times should, in effect, count triple”

December 22, 2015
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“Journalistic lapses at the New York Times should, in effect, count triple”

Palko, writing about the latest Judith Miller Matt Apuzzo, Michael Schmidt, and Julia Preston story: There is no publication in the country, perhaps even in the world, with a reputation like that of the New York Times. It is almost universally considered the standard for American newspapers. For that reason, I would argue that journalistic […] The post “Journalistic lapses at the New York Times should, in effect, count triple”…

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Bayesian Item Response Theory in JAGS: A Hierarchical Two Parameter Logistic Model

December 22, 2015
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Bayesian Item Response Theory in JAGS: A Hierarchical Two Parameter Logistic Model

I recently created a hierarchical two-parameter logistic model for item response theory (IRT). The JAGS script is now in the folder of scripts that accompany the book (available at the book's web site; click book cover at right). Below are slides ...

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End-of-Year Reading

December 22, 2015
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End-of-Year Reading

Wishing all readers a very special holiday season!Agiakloglou, C., and C. Agiropoulos, 2016. The balance between size and power in testing for linear association for two stationary AR(1) processes. Applied Economics Letters, 23, 230-234.Allen, D., M. M...

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He’s skeptical about Neuroskeptic’s skepticism

December 22, 2015
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Jim Delaney writes: Through a link in the weekend reads on Retraction Watch, I read Neuroskeptic’s post-publication peer review of a study on an antidepressant application of the drug armodafinil. Neuroskeptic’s main criticism is that he/she feels that a “conclusion” in the abstract is misleading, “… Adjunctive armodafinil 150 mg/day reduced depressive symptoms associated with […] The post He’s skeptical about Neuroskeptic’s skepticism appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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R and Python: Gradient Descent

December 22, 2015
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One of the problems often dealt in Statistics is minimization of the objective function. And contrary to the linear models, there is no analytical solution for models that are nonlinear on the parameters such as logistic regression, neural networks, an...

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Post mortem

December 22, 2015
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Post mortem

This is again a guest post, mainly written by Roberto, which I only slightly edited (and if significantly so, I am making it clear by adding text in italics and in square brackets, like [this]). By the way, the pic on the left shows my favourite pathol...

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Link: What Happened in Vis in 2015? Year Review Episode of Data Stories

December 22, 2015
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Link: What Happened in Vis in 2015? Year Review Episode of Data Stories

In time-honored tradition, Andy Kirk and I review the year in visualization on the Data Stories podcast. We chat with Enrico and Moritz about blogs, projects, people, and all the other things that happened and changed (or didn’t) this year. There are lots of good links in the podcast blog posting related to the things … Continue reading Link: What Happened in Vis in 2015? Year Review Episode of Data…

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Gender Effect in Conference Talks

December 22, 2015
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Gender Effect in Conference Talks

I was searching in the arXiv repository for an interesting paper to read over the weekend, when I found this: “Studying Gender in Conference Talks – data from the 223rd meeting of the American Astronomical Society”. The title and figures caught m...

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