I had heard the name of the new technical computing language Julia buzzing around for some time already. Now during Christmas I had some time on my hands, and implemented the bubble sort algorithm that I have already posted about… See more ›

I had heard the name of the new technical computing language Julia buzzing around for some time already. Now during Christmas I had some time on my hands, and implemented the bubble sort algorithm that I have already posted about… See more ›

In response to the discussion of X and me of his recent paper, Val Johnson writes: I would like to thank Andrew for forwarding his comments on uniformly most powerful Bayesian tests (UMPBTs) to me and his invitation to respond to them. I think he (and also Christian Robert) raise a number of interesting points […]The post Statistical evidence for revised standards appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

The programs of the talks, posters and workshop are now printed and available on Speaker Deck (talks, posters, workshop). Please let me know if you spot anything wrong (even though it will not be reprinted!). This is presumably the last news item till Jan. 5 as I am almost off to Chamonix for a week […]

I received a new book today as a present[i]: “(An illustrated book of) Bad Arguments” (Ali Almossawi 2013) [ii]. I wish I’d had it for the critical thinking class I just completed! Here’s the illustration it gives for “hasty generalization”. The author allows it to be accessed here, I just discovered. But it’s not just a clever book […]

I’ve come across a paper that was using “beauty” as one of the predictors. To measure beauty, the authors used Anaface.com I don’t trust metrics without trying them on a gold standard first. So, I tried how well Anaface does on something that the arts world considers as one of gold standards of beauty – […]The post Measuring Beauty appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

This one totally faked me out at first. It was an email from “Nick Bagnall” that began: Dear Dr. Gelman, I made contact last year regarding your work in the CMG: Reconstructing Climate from Tree Ring Data project. We are about to start producing the 2014 edition and I wanted to discuss this with you […]The post Spam! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Memory Lane: 2 years ago: My efficient Errorstat Blogpeople1 have put forward the following 3 reader-contributed interpretive efforts2 as a result of the “deconstruction” exercise from December 11, (mine, from the earlier blog, is at the end) of what I consider: “….an especially intriguing remark by Jim Berger that I think bears upon the current […]

Congress. Wait, before you lose your lunch, bear with me. This dysfunctional legislative body has been making headlines in the news recently. And when Congress is mentioned, rarely, if ever, is it of the positive persuasion. The shutdown, for example...

They didn’t have room for all four graphs of the time-series decomposition so they just displayed the date-of-year graph: They rotated so the graph fit better on the page. The rotation worked for me, but I was a bit bummed that that they put the title and heading of the graph (“The birthrate tends to […]The post NYT version of birthday graph appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Chris Che-Castaldo writes: I am trying to compute variance components for a hierarchical model where the group level has two binary predictors and their interaction. When I model each of these three predictors as N(0, tau) the model will not converge, perhaps because the number of coefficients in each batch is so small (2 for […]The post Estimating and summarizing inference for hierarchical variance parameters when the number of groups…

Welcome to analyze stuff! For our first post, I wanted to reflect on the time of year; after all, ‘tis the season for hams and yams, caroling and sledding, and of course gifts! One popular party gift exchange game is the White Elephant, where each person brings a wrapped (typically regifted or otherwise odd-ball) gift, and then picks one in order with the option of “stealing” another unwrapped gift. Relative…

The mass media continues to gloss over the imprecision of machines/algorithms. Here is another example I came across the other day. In conversation, the name Martin Van Buren popped up. I was curious about this eighth President of the United States. What caught my eye in the following Google search result (right panel) is his height: Mr. Van Buren was very short, only 5 feet tall. I was about to…

Lecture 16: The Monte Carlo principle for numerical integrals: write your integral as an expectation, take a sample. Examples. Importance sampling: draw from a distribution other than the one you really are want, then weight the sample values. Mark...

Exactly 250 years ago, on December 23rd, while some people were still shopping to get presents for their kids, Mr Price took some time to write a letter to the Royal Society of London, He sent an essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances, writen by an old friend of his (who just died), Mr. Bayes, A few days ago, Stephen Stigler came in Montréal to give a…

There has been a lot of discussion on-line recently about languages for data analysis, statistical computing, and data science more generally. I don’t really want to go into the detail of why I believe that all of the common choices are fundamentally and unfixably flawed – language wars are so unseemly. Instead I want to […]

They work hard for their money. Or, maybe they just work for their money. Either way, members of Congress get paid. There are many ways to measure the amount of work congressional members do. One way is by looking at the number of Bill's they pass pe...

Aki pointed me to this article. I’m too exhausted to argue all this in detail yet one more time, but let me just say that I hate this stuff for the reasons given in Section 5 of this paper from 1998 (based on classroom activities from 1994). I’ve hated this stuff for a long time. […]The post I hate this stuff appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…