Trial until first succes

February 15, 2015
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Trial until first succes

Studying on in Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and Health-Care Evaluation (David J. Spiegelhalter, Keith R. Abrams, Jonathan P. Myles) they state that if you have one success in a trial, that a design is needed to know what that means. For examp...

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Alan Turing (2) vs. Yoko Ono

February 14, 2015
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Alan Turing (2) vs. Yoko Ono

For yesterday‘s match, I’ll have to go with Ed Wood. Best argument came from Nick: I’d rather watch him talk than watch one of his movies. And, in all seriousness, I think Wood’s talk would be better. Schlafly must’ve given thousands of speeches by now, and I think whatever she has to say would just […] The post Alan Turing (2) vs. Yoko Ono appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Two Unrecognized Hall Of Fame Statisticians

February 14, 2015
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To follow up on a recent post, I thought it would be amusing to consider the most important unrecognized statisticians. That is, those statisticians of the past who made important contributions which have been largely forgotten. Any suggestions? Dead...

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Induction, Popper and Pseudoscience

February 14, 2015
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Induction, Popper and Pseudoscience

February is a good time to read or reread these pages from Popper’s Conjectures and Refutations. Below are (a) some of my newer reflections on Popper after rereading him in the graduate seminar I taught one year ago with Aris Spanos (Phil 6334), and (b) my slides on Popper and the philosophical problem of induction, first posted here. I welcome reader questions […]

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Fixing the visual versus fixing the story

February 13, 2015
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Fixing the visual versus fixing the story

It's great for me when my friend Alberto Cairo lent a helping hand (link). Here is the original chart showing deaths in African and Middle East countries due to recent unrest: This is Cairo's redesign: There is no doubt the...

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Ed Wood (3) vs. Phyllis Schlafly

February 13, 2015
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Ed Wood (3) vs. Phyllis Schlafly

No great arguments or killer quips on either side of yesterday‘s bout. Keith has a story where someone wrote a computer program to write a fake Levi-Strauss article which was so convincing that Levi-Strauss thought he (Levi-Strauss) had written it himself. But Aron too got a bit predictable in his old age, so I don’t […] The post Ed Wood (3) vs. Phyllis Schlafly appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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What to graph, not just how to graph it

February 13, 2015
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Robin Gong writes: While we’re on the topic of visualization, I’ve been puzzled by a more general question and I’m unsure where it fits in actually. There seem to be two parts to a good visualization practice, and in our class we’ve been focusing more on one of them, that is “how to get my […] The post What to graph, not just how to graph it appeared first on…

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Introduction to Linear Models and Matrix Algebra MOOC starts this Monday Feb 16

February 13, 2015
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Matrix algebra is the language of modern data analysis. We use it to develop and describe statistical and machine learning methods, and to code efficiently in languages such as R, matlab and python. Concepts such as principal component analysis (PCA) are best described with matrix algebra. It is particularly useful to describe linear models. Linear

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Wrapping up Bayes@Lund 2015

February 12, 2015
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Wrapping up Bayes@Lund 2015

For the second year around I and Ullrika Sahlin arranged the mini-conference Bayes@Lund, with the aim of bringing together researchers in the in the south of Sweden working with Bayesian methods. This year the committee was also beefed up by Paul Cap...

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The advantages of using count() to get N-way frequency tables as data frames in R

The advantages of using count() to get N-way frequency tables as data frames in R

Introduction I recently introduced how to use the count() function in the “plyr” package in R to produce 1-way frequency tables in R.  Several commenters provided alternative ways of doing so, and they are all appreciated.  Today, I want to extend that tutorial by demonstrating how count() can be used to produce N-way frequency tables […]

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The advantages of using count() to get N-way frequency tables as data frames in R

The advantages of using count() to get N-way frequency tables as data frames in R

Introduction I recently introduced how to use the count() function in the “plyr” package in R to produce 1-way frequency tables in R.  Several commenters provided alternative ways of doing so, and they are all appreciated.  Today, I want to extend that tutorial by demonstrating how count() can be used to produce N-way frequency tables […]

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Claude Levi-Strauss (4) vs. Raymond Aron

February 12, 2015
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Claude Levi-Strauss (4) vs. Raymond Aron

Thanks for our bracket-maker Paul Davidson, here’s what we have so far (as of a few days ago): OK, yesterday‘s winner: what can you say? Leonardo da Vinci vs. The guy who did Piss Christ. The funniest argument in all the comments came from Anonymous, who wrote: Serrano. Any schmuck can paint the Mona Lisa, […] The post Claude Levi-Strauss (4) vs. Raymond Aron appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Is Reproducibility as Effective as Disclosure? Let’s Hope Not.

February 12, 2015
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Jeff and I just this week published a commentary in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on our latest thinking on reproducible research and its ability to solve the reproducibility/replication "crisis" in science (there's a version on arXiv too). In a nutshell, we believe reproducibility (making data and code available so that others can

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Two Unrecognized Hall Of Fame Shortstops

February 12, 2015
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Michael Humphreys writes: Thought you might be interested in or might like to link to the following article. The statistical rigor is obviously not at a professional level, but pitched somewhere around the Bill Jamesian level. Here’s the link. This sort of thing makes me realize how out of it I am, when it comes […] The post Two Unrecognized Hall Of Fame Shortstops appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Minimalism as a form of abuse

February 12, 2015
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Minimalism as a form of abuse

With each succeeding year, I get more and more frustrated with "minimalist" designs that have little respect for users. This Christmas, I received a portable cellphone charger as a gift. A thoughtful gift. I have heard of these devices but...

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Stan 2.6.0 Released

February 12, 2015
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Stan 2.6.0 Released

We’re happy to announce the release of Stan 2.6, including RStan, PyStan, CmdStan; it will also work with the existing Stan.jl and MatlabStan. Although there is some new functionality (hence the minor version bump), this is primarily a maintenance release. It fixes all of the known memory issues with Stan 2.5.0 and improves overall speed […] The post Stan 2.6.0 Released appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Stan 2.6.0 Released

February 12, 2015
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Stan 2.6.0 Released

We’re happy to announce the release of Stan 2.6, including RStan, PyStan, CmdStan; it will also work with the existing Stan.jl and MatlabStan. Although there is some new functionality (hence the minor version bump), this is primarily a maintenance release. It fixes all of the known memory issues with Stan 2.5.0 and improves overall speed […] The post Stan 2.6.0 Released appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Leonardo da Vinci (1) vs. The guy who did Piss Christ

February 11, 2015
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Leonardo da Vinci (1) vs. The guy who did Piss Christ

Determining yesterday‘s winner turned out to be complicated. On the face of it, the decision should be easy. Bruno Latour is some postmodernist dude, whereas Albert Camus is one of the coolest men who’s ever lived. But, in comments, Kyle came in with a pretty powerful argument: I’m afraid you couldn’t get Camus to stay […] The post Leonardo da Vinci (1) vs. The guy who did Piss Christ appeared…

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Video: Nigel Holmes on Humor in Visualization and Infographics

February 11, 2015
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In this talk, Nigel Holmes talks about the value of and use of humor in communicating visualization. He also has some interesting criticism of academic visualization research (and also some more artistic pieces). It’s a fun and interesting tal...

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Forecasts From Financial Markets

February 11, 2015
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I'm thinking about broad approaches ("general principles" below) for getting various kinds of forecasts from various kinds of forward-looking financial markets (under assumptions, of course, that typically include risk neutrality).   Did I miss an...

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When the evidence is unclear

February 11, 2015
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A few months ago I posted on a paper by Bernard Tanguy et al. on a field experiment in Ethiopia where I couldn’t figure out, from the article, where was the empirical support for the claims being made. This was not the first time I’d had this feeling about a claim made in social science […] The post When the evidence is unclear appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Binary heart in SAS

February 11, 2015
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Binary heart in SAS

The xkcd comic often makes me think and laugh. The comic features physics, math, and statistics among its topics. Many years ago, the comic showed a "binary heart": a grid of binary (0/1) numbers with the certain numbers colored red so that they formed a heart. Some years later, I […]

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Scheduling R Tasks via Windows Task Scheduler

February 11, 2015
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Scheduling R Tasks via Windows Task Scheduler

This post will allow you to impress your boss with your strong work ethic by enabling Windows R users to schedule late night tasks.  Picture it, your boss gets an email at 1:30 in the morning with the latest company … Continue reading →

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