Mixture Models (Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View)

April 25, 2013
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From factor analysis to mixture models by allowing the latent variable to be discrete. From kernel density estimation to mixture models by reducing the number of points with copies of the kernel. Probabilistic formulation of mixture models. Geomet...

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Graphical Models (Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View)

April 25, 2013
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Conditional independence and dependence properties in factor models. The generalization to graphical models. Directed acyclic graphs. DAG models. Factor, mixture, and Markov models as DAGs. The graphical Markov property. Reading conditional indep...

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Choosing a Better History (Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View)

April 25, 2013
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Exam 2: in which we examine how the citizens of ex-communist country X look at history and human rights, as a way of practicing multivariate data analysis. Assignment; the data set is still confidential and so not public. Advanced Data Analysis fro...

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Graphical Causal Models (Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View)

April 25, 2013
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Probabilistic prediction is about passively selecting a sub-ensemble, leaving all the mechanisms in place, and seeing what turns up after applying that filter. Causal prediction is about actively producing a new ensemble, and seeing what would happen...

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Identifying Causal Effects from Observations (Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View)

April 25, 2013
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Reprise of causal effects vs. probabilistic conditioning. "Why think, when you can do the experiment?" Experimentation by controlling everything (Galileo) and by randomizing (Fisher). Confounding and identifiability. The back-door criterion for id...

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Brought to You by the Letters D, A, and G (Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View)

April 25, 2013
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In which the arts of estimating causal effects from observational data are practiced on Sesame Street. Assignment, sesame.csv Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View

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Estimating Causal Effects from Observations (Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View)

April 25, 2013
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Estimating graphical models: substituting consistent estimators into the formulas for front and back door identification; average effects and regression; tricks to avoid estimating marginal distributions; propensity scores and matching and propensity ...

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"Going Online: Should we do it? How? Why? What do we gain? What do we lose?" (Next Week, Instead of the Statistics Seminar)

April 25, 2013
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Next week, instead of the regular seminar, the CMU statistics department will be hosting a panel on experience with online statistics education, including massive open online courses: "Going Online: Should we do it? How? Why? What do we gain? What d...

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interesting puzzle

April 25, 2013
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interesting puzzle

In addition to its weekly mathematics puzzles, Le Monde is now publishing a series of vulgarisation books on mathematics, under the patronage of Cédric Villani. Jean-Michel Marin brought me two from the series, one on the golden number and one on Pythagoras’ theorem. (This is actually a translation of a series published by El Pais […]

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Free e-Copy of Bayesian Computation with R (Use R)

April 24, 2013
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Free e-Copy of Bayesian Computation with R (Use R)

Amazon is currently making the first edition of Bayesian Computation with R (Use R) by Jim Albert available for free on Kindle. I own a copy of the book and there is a lot of good content and R examples on how one can do general Bayesian statistics.  The R scripts  from the book (2nd edition but [...]

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Samurai sword-wielding Mormon bishop pharmaceutical statistician stops mugger

April 24, 2013
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Samurai sword-wielding Mormon bishop pharmaceutical statistician stops mugger

Brett Keller points us to this feel-good story of the day: A Samurai sword-wielding Mormon bishop helped a neighbor woman escape a Tuesday morning attack by a man who had been stalking her. Kent Hendrix woke up Tuesday to his teenage son pounding on his bedroom door and telling him somebody was being mugged in [...]The post Samurai sword-wielding Mormon bishop pharmaceutical statistician stops mugger appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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My talk midtown this Friday noon (and at Columbia Monday afternoon)

April 24, 2013
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At the City University of New York Graduate Center, 365 Fifth Avenue (between 34th and 35th street), room 6002. The topic: causality and statistical learning. Announcement is here (scroll down). It says that if you would like to attend any event, please respond by emailing datamining@gc.cuny.edu I’m also giving a shorter talk on the same [...]The post My talk midtown this Friday noon (and at Columbia Monday afternoon) appeared first…

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The Price is Right Problem: Part Two

April 24, 2013
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The Price is Right Problem: Part Two

This article is an excerpt from Think Bayes, a book I am working on.  The entire current draft is available from http://thinkbayes.com.  I welcome comments and suggestions.In the previous article, I described presented The Price is ...

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The Tweets-Votes Curve

April 24, 2013
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The Tweets-Votes Curve

Fabio Rojas points me to this excellently-titled working paper by Joseph DiGrazia, Karissa McKelvey, Johan Bollen, and himself: Is social media a valid indicator of political behavior? We answer this ques- tion using a random sample of 537,231,508 tweets from August 1 to November 1, 2010 and data from 406 competitive U.S. congressional elections provided [...]The post The Tweets-Votes Curve appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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The Tweets-Votes Curve

April 24, 2013
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The Tweets-Votes Curve

Fabio Rojas points me to this excellently-titled working paper by Joseph DiGrazia, Karissa McKelvey, Johan Bollen, and himself: Is social media a valid indicator of political behavior? We answer this ques- tion using a random sample of 537,231,508 tweets from August 1 to November 1, 2010 and data from 406 competitive U.S. congressional elections provided [...]

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The Tweets-Votes Curve

April 24, 2013
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The Tweets-Votes Curve

Fabio Rojas points me to this excellently-titled working paper by Joseph DiGrazia, Karissa McKelvey, Johan Bollen, and himself: Is social media a valid indicator of political behavior? We answer this ques- tion using a random sample of 537,231,508 tweets from August 1 to November 1, 2010 and data from 406 competitive U.S. congressional elections provided [...]

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How to overlay a custom density curve on a histogram in SAS

April 24, 2013
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How to overlay a custom density curve on a histogram in SAS

I've previously described how to overlay two or more density curves on a single plot. I've also written about how to use PROC SGPLOT to overlay custom curves on a graph. This article describes how to overlay a density curve on a histogram. For common distributions, you can overlay a [...]

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The AllTrials campaign

April 24, 2013
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The AllTrials campaign is pushing for all data on drug trials to be made public — see the campaign statement. If the public has all the evidence rather than a biased selection of evidence, then it will be possible to make better decisions. There’s been a good start, but more people need to know about […] The post The AllTrials campaign appeared first on Burns Statistics.

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Foundation for Open Access Statistics

April 23, 2013
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Foundation for Open Access Statistics

Now here’s a foundation I (Bob) can get behind: Foundation for Open Access Statistics (FOAS) Their mission is to “promote free software, open access publishing, and reproducible research in statistics.” To me, that’s like supporting motherhood and apple pie! FOAS spun out of and is partially designed to support the Journal of Statistical Software (aka [...]The post Foundation for Open Access Statistics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Bad normal approximation

April 23, 2013
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Sometimes you can approximate a binomial distribution with a normal distribution. Under the right conditions, a Binomial(n, p) has approximately the distribution of a normal with the same mean and variance, i.e. mean np and variance np(1-p). The approximation works…Read more ›

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TweetMap ALPHA: Querying a Massive Amount of Tweets on a Map

April 23, 2013
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TweetMap ALPHA: Querying a Massive Amount of Tweets on a Map

The impressive TweetMap ALPHA [harvard.edu], developed by Harvard University's Center for Geographic Analysis, is based on a dataset of about 95 million tweets, which can be dynamically queried by time, by location or by keyword. Tweetmap makes use o...

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Interview at Yale Center for Environmental Law & Policy

April 23, 2013
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Interview with Roger Peng from YCELP on Vimeo. A few weeks ago I sat down with Angel Hsu of the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy to talk about some of their work on air pollution indicators. (Note: I … Continue reading →

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Charles Murray’s “Coming Apart” and the measurement of social and political divisions

April 23, 2013
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Charles Murray’s “Coming Apart” and the measurement of social and political divisions

Following up on our blog discussions a year ago, I published a review of Charles Murray’s recent book, “Coming Apart,” for the journal Statistics, Politics, and Policy. I invited Murray to publish a response, and he did so. Here’s the abstract to my review: This article examines some claims made in a recent popular book [...]The post Charles Murray’s “Coming Apart” and the measurement of social and political divisions appeared…

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