## WSJ tells stories about working women

November 5, 2013
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Over twitter, Jeff Harrison @mrjeffharrison shouted "Story time!" at this Wall Street Journal report on a Citibank/LinkedIn survey of working men and women. "Story time" is the trick of reporting some statistics, then spinning a story that has little or nothing to do with the data just presented. This tactic is effective as some readers erroneously assume that the story is supported by the data. A good illustration is this…

## Pricing reinsurance contracts, another case study

November 5, 2013
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A reinsurance case study for tomorrow’s class. The goal will be to price some nonproportional reinsurance contract, for business interruption claims. Consider the following dataset, > library(gdata) > db=read.xls( + "http://perso.univ-rennes1.fr/arthur.charpentier/SIN_1985_2000-PE.xls", + sheet=1) Content type 'application/vnd.ms-excel' length 183808 bytes (179 Kb) open URL ================================================== downloaded 179 Kb As for any (standard) insurance contract, there are two parts in the pricing the expected number of claims the average cost of individual…

## How to Host a Conference on Google Hangouts on Air

November 5, 2013
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We recently hosted the first ever Simply Statistics Unconference on the Future of Statistics. In preparing for the event, we learned a lot about how to organize such an event and frankly we wished there had been a bit more … Continue reading →

## How much do we trust a new claim that early childhood stimulation raised earnings by 42%?

November 5, 2013
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Hal Pashler wrote in about a recent paper, “Labor Market Returns to Early Childhood Stimulation: a 20-year Followup to an Experimental Intervention in Jamaica,” by Paul Gertler, James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto, Arianna Zanolini, Christel Vermeerch, Susan Walker, Susan M. Chang, and Sally Grantham-McGregor. Here’s Pashler: Dan Willingham tweeted: @DTWillingham: RCT from Jamaica: Big effects 20 […]The post How much do we trust a new claim that early childhood stimulation raised…

## What’s in a cronut? Let me find out

November 5, 2013
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Reader Ross S. did not join the line for this cronut, illustrating the popularity of different makers of tracking software on 1.3 million websites. Original by Analytics SEO is here. *** The biggest beef I have with this cronut is...

## Typos in BMHE

November 5, 2013
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No matter how many times you check and no matter how good the publishers are, I'm guessing there's no way out of getting typos in a publication, especially if it's a relatively long one, such as a book.I've just discovered a couple in BMHE, which I tho...

## Display googleVis charts within RStudio

November 5, 2013
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The preview version 0.98.441 of RStudio introduced a new viewer pane to render local web content and with that it allows me to display googleVis charts within RStudio rather than in a separate browser window. I think this is a rather nice feature and...

## Finding Reversal Zone in Intraday FX prices

November 5, 2013
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There is no holy grail in trading instead there are strategies that work for a while or in a specific market environment. The role of the analyst is therefore twofold.  First find a good trading strategy, second find the right environment for this strategy. The present post focuses on the latter. More specifically it aims […]

## qstats – quick and dirty statistics tool for the Unix pipeline

November 5, 2013
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Back when 200MB hard drives were the size of washing machines and programs had no choice but to be as efficient as possible, Unix was born. In a serendipitous twist of fate, the same programs that were borne of this era of 4MB RAM and 16 bit processors are useful to data analysts with 2,000 »more

## Optional stopping in data collection: p values, Bayes factors, credible intervals, precision

November 5, 2013
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This post argues that data collection should stop when a desired degree of precision is achieved (as measured by a Bayesian credible interval), not when a critical p value is achieved, not when a critical Bayes factor is achieved, and not even when a B...

## Commissions

November 5, 2013
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Today, I want to explain the commission’s functionality build in to Systematic Investor Toolbox(SIT) “share” back-test. At each re-balance time the capital is allocated given the weight such that For example, if weight is 100% (i.e. fully invested) and capital = \$100 and price = \$10 then The period return is equal to The total […]

## Shlemiel the Software Developer and Unknown Unknowns

November 4, 2013
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$Shlemiel the Software Developer and Unknown Unknowns$

The Stan meeting today reminded me of Joel Spolsky’s recasting of the Yiddish joke about Shlemiel the Painter. Joel retold it on his blog, Joel on Software, in the post Back to Basics: Shlemiel gets a job as a street painter, painting the dotted lines down the middle of the road. On the first day […]The post Shlemiel the Software Developer and Unknown Unknowns appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## Smoothing mortality rates

November 4, 2013
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This morning, I was working with Julie, a student of mine, coming from Rennes, on mortality tables. Actually, we work on genealogical datasets from a small region in Québec, and we can observe a lot of volatiliy. If I borrow one of her graph, we get something like Since we have some missing data, we wanted to use some Generalized Nonlinear Models. So let us see how to get a…

## My talk @ the Dutch Chemometrics Symposium

November 4, 2013
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For same reason, Paul Eilers really liked the talk I gave on INLA at the BayesPharma workshop earlier this year and so he invited me to talk at the Dutch Chemometrics Symposium.Now: you may ask what have I got to do with chemometrics. An...

## Archival and analysis of #GI2013 Tweets

November 4, 2013
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I archived and analyzed all Tweets containing #GI2013 from the recent Cold Spring Harbor Genome Informatics meeting, using my previously described code.Friday was the most Tweeted day. Perhaps this was due to Lior Pachter's excellent keynote, "Stories ...

## Excel Chart Demo

November 4, 2013
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As an illustration of how Sharp Statistics can integrate extra analysis tools into Excel there is now a demonstration Excel Add In that can be download and installed to produce some useful statistical plots of your data. It can produce 3 simple statist...

## Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Launches Improved U.S. GDP Growth Series

November 4, 2013
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Exciting news for empirical macroeconomics and finance: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today released a new and improved \(GDP\) growth series, \(GDPplus\). It's an optimal blend of the BEA's expenditure-side and income-side estimates (c...

## Recently in the sister blog

November 4, 2013
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This one’s probably the most important: Republicans on track to retain control of House in 2014 And I like this one for the headline: Impact factor 911 is a joke Here are the others: Press releases make for fishy statistics Why is the Motley Fool hyping Netflix? Our health-care system is like Coca Cola Obama […]The post Recently in the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Forthcoming paper on the strong likelihood principle

November 4, 2013
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My paper, “On the Birnbaum Argument for the Strong Likelihood Principle” has been accepted by Statistical Science. The latest version is here. (It differs from all versions posted anywhere). If you spot any typos, please let me know (error@vt.edu). If you can’t open this link, please write to me and I’ll send it directly. As always, […]

## Create mosaic plots in SAS by using PROC FREQ

November 4, 2013
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Mosaic plots (Hartigan and Kleiner, 1981; Friendly, 1994, JASA) are used for exploratory data analysis of categorical data. Mosaic plots have been available for decades in SAS products such as JMP, SAS/INSIGHT, and SAS/IML Studio. However, not all SAS customers have access to these specialized products, so I am pleased [...]

## Spatial Clustering With Equal Sizes

November 4, 2013
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This is a problem I have encountered many times where the goal is to take a sample of spatial locations and apply constraints to the algorithm.  In addition to providing a pre-determined number of K clusters a fixed size of elements needs to be held constant within each cluster. An application of this algorithm is […]

## Sunday data/statistics link roundup (11/3/13)

November 4, 2013
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There has been a big knockdown-dragout battle in the blogosphere over how GTEX is doing their analysis. Read the original post here, my summary here, and the response from GTEX here. I agree that the criticism bordered on hyperbolic but also think … Continue reading →

November 4, 2013
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This is the 100th post on “Learn and Teach Statistics and Operations Research”. To celebrate, I am writing about the joys of blogging. Anyone with an internet connection can blog these days, and do! It is the procrastinator’s “dark playground” … Continue reading →