## R Now Contains 150 Times as Many Commands as SAS

May 22, 2015
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by Bob Muenchen In my ongoing quest to analyze the world of analytics, I’ve updated the Growth in Capability section of The Popularity of Data Analysis Software. To save you the trouble of foraging through that tome, I’ve pasted it below. … Continue reading →

## John Lott as possible template for future career of “Bruno” Lacour

May 22, 2015
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The recent story about the retracted paper on political persuasion reminded me of the last time that a politically loaded survey was discredited because the researcher couldn’t come up with the data. I’m referring to John Lott, the “economist, political commentator, and gun rights advocate” (in the words of Wikipedia) who is perhaps more well […] The post John Lott as possible template for future career of “Bruno” Lacour appeared…

## Should I tell students that the maximum score in the class is 137?

May 22, 2015
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This op-ed by Richard Thaler caught my attention because I have a similar experience. In my statistics classes, I have noticed a pattern: if the mid-term exam is hard, with a lower average score (say 75-80%), the students look crestfallen and feel that they did not learn; eventually, when it comes to evaluating the instructor, I receive lower grades, with comments indicating that I have not taught them properly to…

## Creativity is the ability to see relationships where none exist

May 22, 2015
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Brent Goldfarb and Andrew King, in a paper to appear in the journal Strategic Management, write: In a recent issue of this journal, Bettis (2012) reports a conversation with a graduate student who forthrightly announced that he had been trained by faculty to “search for asterisks”. The student explained that he sifted through large databases […] The post Creativity is the ability to see relationships where none exist appeared first…

May 21, 2015
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## BREAKING . . . Princeton decides to un-hire Kim Jong-Un for tenure-track assistant professorship in aeronautical engineering

May 21, 2015
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Full story here. Here’s the official quote: As you’ve correctly noted, at this time the individual is not a Princeton University employee. We will review all available information and determine next steps. And here’s what Kim has to say: I’m gathering evidence and relevant information so I can provide a single comprehensive response. I will […] The post BREAKING . . . Princeton decides to un-hire Kim Jong-Un for tenure-track…

## Bond Yields, Macro Fundamentals, and Policy

May 20, 2015
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Greetings my friends from Eurovision in Vienna. Yes, OK, that's not exactly the real reason I'm here, but still...As I said in an earlier post that stressed DNS/AFNS yield-curve modeling with the zero lower bound imposed, "although ...

## A Pleasant Surprise

May 20, 2015
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I could scarcely believe my good fortune when I opened the following email earlier today:Dear Dr Giles,Congratulations, your paper “Being ‘in’ assessment: The ontological layer(ing) of assessment practice” published in Journal of Applied R...

## “In my previous post on the topic, I expressed surprise at the published claim but no skepticism”

May 20, 2015
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Don’t believe everything you read in the tabloids, that’s for sure. P.S. I googled to see what else was up with this story and found this article which reported that someone claimed that Don Green’s retraction (see above link for details) was the first for political science. I guess it depends on how you define […] The post “In my previous post on the topic, I expressed surprise at the…

## EuroVis Running Club

May 20, 2015
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I’m organizing a very informal running club at EuroVis next week. If you’re attending the conference, don’t forget to bring your running shoes and leave your excuses at home. This is even less organized than than the VIS running club. I’m not going to have you fill out a form. Instead, just drop me an … Continue reading EuroVis Running Club

## Clusters Powerful Enough to Generate Their Own Subspaces

May 20, 2015
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Cluster are groupings that have no external label. We start with entities described by a set of measurements but no rule for sorting them by type. Mixture modeling makes this point explicit with its equation showing how each measurement is an independe...

## Is it species or is it batch? They are confounded, so we can’t know

May 20, 2015
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In a 2005 OMICS paper, an analysis of human and mouse gene expression microarray measurements from several tissues led the authors to conclude that "any tissue is more similar to any other human tissue examined than to its corresponding mouse tissue". Note that this was a rather surprising result given how similar tissues are between species.

## Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn”

May 20, 2015
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Reprinting a classic from 2010: The other day I saw some kids trying to tell knock-knock jokes, The only one they really knew was the one that goes: Knock knock. Who’s there? Banana? Banana who? Knock knock. Who’s there? Banana? Banana who? Knock knock. Who’s there? Orange. Orange who? Orange you glad I didn’t say […] The post Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## Shaking up expectations for pension benefits

May 20, 2015
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Ted Ballachine wrote me about his website Pension360 pointing me to a recent attempt at visualizing pension benefits in various retirement systems in the state of Illinois. The link to the blog post is here. One of the things they...

## Direct me to the nuclear Bessels!

May 20, 2015
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When I was an undergraduate physic major, my favorite professor would start each class with a joke or pun. One day he began class with a paraphrase of a famous quote from the movie Star Trek 4: The Voyage Home (the one with the whales). "Today," my professor said, imitating […] The post Direct me to the nuclear Bessels! appeared first on The DO Loop.

## Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks

May 19, 2015
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This came up in an email exchange regarding a plan to come up with and evaluate Bayesian prediction algorithms for a medical application: I would not refer to the existing prediction algorithm as frequentist. Frequentist refers to the evaluation of statistical procedures but it doesn’t really say where the estimate or prediction comes from. Rather, […] The post Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## Sequential Bayesian inference for time series

May 19, 2015
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Hello hello, I have just arXived a review article, written for ESAIM: Proceedings and Surveys, called Sequential Bayesian inference for implicit hidden Markov models and current limitations. The topic is sequential Bayesian estimation: you want to perform inference (say, parameter inference, or prediction of future observations), taking into account parameter and model uncertainties, using hidden Markov […]

## Sequential Bayesian inference for time series

May 19, 2015
By

Hello hello, I have just arXived a review article, written for ESAIM: Proceedings and Surveys, called Sequential Bayesian inference for implicit hidden Markov models and current limitations. The topic is sequential Bayesian estimation: you want to perform inference (say, parameter inference, or prediction of future observations), taking into account parameter and model uncertainties, using hidden Markov […]

## How Predictable is the English Premier League?

May 19, 2015
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The reason why football is so exciting is uncertainty. The outcome of any match or league is unknown, and you get to watch the action unfold without knowing what’s going to happen. Watching matches where you know the score is never exciting. This weekend the English Premier League season will conclude with little fanfare. Bar […]

## Posterior predictive output with Stan

May 19, 2015
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I continue my Stan experiments with another insurance example. Here I am particular interested in the posterior predictive distribution from only three data points. Or, to put it differently I have a customer of three years and I'd like to predict the ...