## Discussing Official Statistics and Open Data in UK

August 3, 2013
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Committees discussing official statistics In UK te committees of the House of Commons and the House of Lords  examine various issues …Continue reading »

## Uncertainty in parameter estimates using multilevel models

August 3, 2013
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David Hsu writes: I have a (perhaps) simple question about uncertainty in parameter estimates using multilevel models — what is an appropriate threshold for measure parameter uncertainty in a multilevel model? The reason why I ask is that I set out to do a crossed two-way model with two varying intercepts, similar to your flight […]The post Uncertainty in parameter estimates using multilevel models appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## Near Paris? Snap a shot of the book with Laplace. Or pose it with other Bayesians.

August 2, 2013
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The book previously has been posed at Bayes' tomb, Fisher's remains, and Jacob Bernoulli's grave (in an attempt to be amusing and informative; hopefully not inadvertently being offensive). Conspicuously absent from that list is Pierre-Simon Lapace, who...

## That causal inference came out of nowhere

August 2, 2013
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This is a study of breastfeeding and its impact on IQ that has been making the rounds on a number of different media outlets. I first saw it on the Wall Street Journal where I was immediately drawn to this … Continue reading →

## itnews – ABS prepares big data transformation

August 2, 2013
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From: http://www.itnews.com.au/News/352003,abs-prepares-big-data-transformation.aspx By Paris Cowan on Aug 2, 2013 7:10 AM (15 hours ago) The Australian Bureau of Statistics has begun an IT transformation aimed at tackling an incoming "big data tsunami...

## My course this fall on l’analyse bayésienne de données

August 2, 2013
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X marks the spot. I’ll post the slides soon (not just for the students in my class; these should be helpful for anyone teaching Bayesian data analysis from our book). But I don’t think you’ll get much from reading the slides alone; you’ll get more out of the book (or, of course, from taking the […]The post My course this fall on l’analyse bayésienne de données appeared first on Statistical…

## How old is your version of SAS? Release dates for SAS software

August 2, 2013
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How old is your version of SAS software? The graph on the left shows the release dates for various releases of SAS software, beginning with SAS 8.0. The graph is based on a graph on Jiangtang Hu's blog that shows the major SAS releases. As this graph demonstrates, SAS software [...]

## Blogging (flogging?) the SLP: Response to Reply- Xi’an Robert

August 2, 2013
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Christian Robert’s reply grows out of my last blogpost. On Xi’an’s Og : A quick reply from my own Elba, in the Dolomiti: your arguments (about the sad consequences of the SLP) are not convincing wrt the derivation of SLP=WCP+SP. If I built a procedure that reports (E1,x*) whenever I observe (E1,x*) or (E2,y*), this obeys […]

## Model Scale Parameterization for MCMC Efficiency

August 1, 2013
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$Model Scale Parameterization for MCMC Efficiency$

I recently came across a very interesting paper by Y. Yu and X. Meng[1] who present an interweaving strategy between different model parameterizations to improve mixing. It is well known that different model parameterizations can perform better than others under certain conditions. Papaspiliopoulos, Roberts and Sköld [2] present a general framework for how to parameterize […] The post Model Scale Parameterization for MCMC Efficiency appeared first on Lindons Log.

## The ROC curves of science

August 1, 2013
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Andrew Gelman's recent post on what he calls the "scientific mass production of spurious statistical significance" reminded me of a thought I had back when I read John Ioannidis' paper claiming that most published research finding are false. Many authors, which I … Continue reading →

## Non-topical blogging

August 1, 2013
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On a day with four blog posts (and followed by a day with two more), econblogger Mark Thoma wrote: Every once in awhile I [Thoma] kind of need a bit of a break . . . I ran out of energy a few weeks ago . . . I’ll do my best until then, daily […]The post Non-topical blogging appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## Arresting visualization

August 1, 2013
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Reader Steph G. didn't like the effort by WRAL (North Carolina) to visualize the demographics of protestors in Raleigh. It sounds like the citizens of NC are making their voices heard. Maybe my friends in Raleigh can give us some...

## Big Data and Marketing

August 1, 2013
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In Chicago, I spoke about the impact of Big Data on marketing. I was going to summarize the key points here but then I noticed that Chris Rollyson has already done the work, and did a much better job than I can. Here are his copious notes. One question from the audience that I didn't address fully was the use of data in education. I got as far as the…

## Practical Data Science with R, deal of the day Aug 1 2013

August 1, 2013
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Deal of the Day August 1: Half off my book Practical Data Science with R. Use code dotd0801au at www.manning.com/zumel/ Related posts: Data Science, Machine Learning, and Statistics: what is in a name? Data science project planning Setting expectation...

## JSM2013

July 31, 2013
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This post is for JSM2013. I will put useful links here and I will update this post during the meeting. Big Data Sessions at JSM Nate Silver addresses assembled statisticians at this year’s JSM Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician What I have learned from this meeting (Key words of this […]

## JSM2013

July 31, 2013
By

This post is for JSM2013. I will put useful links here and I will update this post during the meeting. Big Data Sessions at JSM Nate Silver addresses assembled statisticians at this year’s JSM Data scientist is just a sexed up word for statistician What I have learned from this meeting (Key words of this […]

## Woodbury Matrix Inverse Identity

$Woodbury Matrix Inverse Identity$

Application in Conditional Distribution of Multivariate Normal The Sherman-Woodbury-Morrison matrix inverse identity can be regarded as a transform between Schur complements. That is, given one can obtain by using the Woodbury matrix identity and vice versa. Recall the Woodbury Identity: and I recently stumbled across a neat application of this whilst deriving full conditionals for […] The post Woodbury Matrix Inverse Identity appeared first on Lindons Log.

## On the automated scoring of essays and the lessons learned along the way

July 31, 2013
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We’ve all written essays, primarily while we were in school. The sometimes enjoyable process of researching the topic and composing the paper can take hours and hours of careful work. Given this, people react badly to the notion that their essays may be scored not by a human teacher, but by machine. A piece of software coldly judging the quality of our carefully constructed phrases and metaphors based on unknown…

## The researcher degrees of freedom – recipe tradeoff in data analysis

July 31, 2013
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An important concept that is only recently gaining the attention it deserves is researcher degrees of freedom. From Simmons et al.: The culprit is a construct we refer to as researcher degrees of freedom. In the course of collecting and … Continue reading →

## Measuring Bias in Published Work

July 31, 2013
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$Measuring Bias in Published Work$

In a series of previous posts, I’ve spent some time looking at the idea that the review and publication process in political science—and specifically, the requirement that a result must be statistically significant in order to be scientifically notable or publishable—produces a very misleading scientific literature. In short, published studies of some relationship will tend […]

## Response by Jessica Tracy and Alec Beall to my critique of the methods in their paper, “Women Are More Likely to Wear Red or Pink at Peak Fertility”

July 31, 2013
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Last week I published in Slate a critique of a paper that appeared in the journal Psychological Science. That paper, by Alec Beall and Jessica Tracy, found that women who were at peak fertility were three times more likely to wear red or pink shirts, compared to women at other points in their menstrual cycles. […]The post Response by Jessica Tracy and Alec Beall to my critique of the methods…

## On the automated scoring of essays and the lessons learned along the way

July 31, 2013
By

We've all written essays, primarily while we were in school. The sometimes enjoyable process of researching the topic and composing the paper can take hours and hours of careful work. Given this, people react badly to the notion that their essays may be scored not by a human teacher, but by machine. A piece of software coldly judging the quality of our carefully constructed phrases and metaphors based on unknown…

## Read hundreds of data sets into matrices

July 31, 2013
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Do you have dozens (or even hundreds) of SAS data sets that you want to read into SAS/IML matrices? In a previous blog post, I showed how to iterate over a series of data sets and analyze each one. Inside the loop, I read each data set into a matrix [...]