Upcoming Talks

October 17, 2016
By

I (Nina Zumel) will be speaking at the Women who Code Silicon Valley meetup on Thursday, October 27. The talk is called Improving Prediction using Nested Models and Simulated Out-of-Sample Data. In this talk I will discuss nested predictive models. These are models that predict an outcome or dependent variable (called y) using additional submodels … Continue reading Upcoming Talks

Read more »

The unfortunate one-sided logic of empirical hypothesis testing

October 17, 2016
By

I’ve been thinking a bit on statistical tests, their absence, abuse, and limits. I think much of the current “scientific replication crisis” stems from the fallacy that “failing to fail” is the same as success (in addition to the forces of bad luck, limited research budgets, statistical naiveté, sloppiness, pride, greed and other human qualities … Continue reading The unfortunate one-sided logic of empirical hypothesis testing

Read more »

Should Jonah Lehrer be a junior Gladwell? Does he have any other options?

October 17, 2016
By

Remember Jonah Lehrer—that science writer from a few years back whose reputation was tarnished after some plagiarism and fabrication scandals? He’s been blogging—on science! And he’s on to some of the usual suspects: Ellen Langer’s mindfulness (see here for the skeptical take) and—hey—“an important new paper [by] Kyla Haimovitz and Carol Dweck” (see here for […] The post Should Jonah Lehrer be a junior Gladwell? Does he have any other…

Read more »

What is loess regression?

October 17, 2016
By
What is loess regression?

Loess regression is a nonparametric technique that uses local weighted regression to fit a smooth curve through points in a scatter plot. Loess curves are can reveal trends and cycles in data that might be difficult to model with a parametric curve. Loess regression is one of several algorithms in […] The post What is loess regression? appeared first on The DO Loop.

Read more »

Paper: An Empire Built On Sand

October 17, 2016
By
Paper: An Empire Built On Sand

It's not a secret that I think that we need to ask some harder questions about the foundations that we're building visualization on. In a paper to be presented at the BELIV workshop at VIS next week, I'm making the case for that more extensively than I have so far. The full title of the paper is An Empire Built […]

Read more »

Machine Learning vs. Econometrics, III

October 16, 2016
By

I emphasized here that both machine learning (ML) and econometrics (E) prominently feature prediction, one distinction being that ML tends to focus on non-causal prediction, whereas a significant part of E focuses on causal prediction. So they're both ...

Read more »

tractable Bayesian variable selection: beyond normality

October 16, 2016
By
tractable Bayesian variable selection: beyond normality

David Rossell and Francisco Rubio (both from Warwick) arXived a month ago a paper on non-normal variable selection. They use two-piece error models that preserve manageable inference and allow for simple computational algorithms, but also characterise the behaviour of the resulting variable selection process under model misspecification. Interestingly, they show that the existence of asymmetries […]

Read more »

Some people are so easy to contact and some people aren’t.

October 16, 2016
By
Some people are so easy to contact and some people aren’t.

I was reading Cowboys Full, James McManus’s entertaining history of poker (but way too much on the so-called World Series of Poker), and I skimmed the index to look up some of my favorite poker writers. Frank Wallace and David Spanier were both there but only got brief mentions in the text, I was disappointed […] The post Some people are so easy to contact and some people aren’t. appeared…

Read more »

Opportunity for publishing preregistered analyses of the 2016 American National Election Study

October 16, 2016
By

Brendan Nyhan writes: Have you heard about the Election Research Preacceptance Competition that Skip Lupia and I are organizing to promote preaccepted articles? Details here: http://www.erpc2016.com. A number of top journals have agreed to consider preaccepted articles that include data from the ANES. Authors who publish qualifying entries can win a $2,000 prize. We’re eager […] The post Opportunity for publishing preregistered analyses of the 2016 American National Election Study…

Read more »

Not So Standard Deviations Episode 24 – 50 Minutes of Blathering

October 16, 2016
By

Another IRL episode! Hilary and I met at a Jimmy John’s to talk data science, like you do. Topics covered include RStudio Conf, polling, millennials, Karl Broman, and more! If you have questions you’d like us to answer, you can send them to nssdev...

Read more »

“Marginally Significant Effects as Evidence for Hypotheses: Changing Attitudes Over Four Decades”

October 15, 2016
By

Kevin Lewis sends along this article by Laura Pritschet, Derek Powell, and Zachary Horne, who write: Some effects are statistically significant. Other effects do not reach the threshold of statistical significance and are sometimes described as “marginally significant” or as “approaching significance.” Although the concept of marginal significance is widely deployed in academic psychology, there […] The post “Marginally Significant Effects as Evidence for Hypotheses: Changing Attitudes Over Four Decades”…

Read more »

Millennials are still not getting married

October 14, 2016
By
Millennials are still not getting married

Last year I presented a paper called "Will Millennials Ever Get Married?" at SciPy 2015.  You can see video of the talk and download the paper here.I used data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) to estimate the age at first marriage ...

Read more »

GEFCom2017: Hierarchical Probabilistic Load Forecasting

October 14, 2016
By
GEFCom2017: Hierarchical Probabilistic Load Forecasting

After the great success of the previous two energy forecasting competitions we have run (GEFCom2012 and GEFCom2014), we are holding another one, this time focused on hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting. Check out all the details over on Tao Hon...

Read more »

GEFCom2017: Hierarchical Probabilistic Load Forecasting

October 14, 2016
By
GEFCom2017: Hierarchical Probabilistic Load Forecasting

After the great success of the previous two energy forecasting competitions we have run (GEFCom2012 and GEFCom2014), we are holding another one, this time focused on hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting. Check out all the details over on Tao Hong’s blog. The previous GEFComs have led to some major advances in forecasting methodology, available via IJF papers by […]

Read more »

Is it fair to use Bayesian reasoning to convict someone of a crime?

October 14, 2016
By

Ethan Bolker sends along this news article from the Boston Globe: If it doesn’t acquit, it must fit Judges and juries are only human, and as such, their brains tend to see patterns, even if the evidence isn’t all there. In a new study, researchers first presented people with pieces of evidence (a confession, an […] The post Is it fair to use Bayesian reasoning to convict someone of a…

Read more »

Tenure Track Professor in Machine Learning, Aalto University, Finland

October 14, 2016
By
Tenure Track Professor in Machine Learning, Aalto University, Finland

Posted by Aki. I promise that next time I’ll post something else than a job advertisement, but before that here’s another great opportunity to join Aalto Univeristy where I work, too. “We are looking for a professor to either further strengthen our strong research fields, with keywords including statistical machine learning, probabilistic modelling, Bayesian inference, […] The post Tenure Track Professor in Machine Learning, Aalto University, Finland appeared first on…

Read more »

Applying the “If there’s no report you can read, there’s no study” principle in real time

October 14, 2016
By
Applying the “If there’s no report you can read, there’s no study” principle in real time

So, I was on the website of the New York Times and came across this story by Donna de la Cruz: Opioids May Interfere With Parenting Instincts, Study Finds . . . Researchers at the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania scanned the brains of 47 men and women before and after […] The post Applying the “If there’s no report you can read, there’s no study”…

Read more »

Should I make a chatbot or a better FAQ?

October 14, 2016
By

Roger pointed me to this interesting article (paywalled, sorry!) about Facebook’s chatbot service. I think the article made a couple of interesting points. The first thing I thought was interesting was their explicit acknowledgement of the process I ...

Read more »

Play and learning mathematics and statistics

October 13, 2016
By
Play and learning mathematics and statistics

The role of play in learning I have been reading further about teaching mathematics and came across this interesting assertion: Play, understood as something frivolous, opposed to work, off-task behaviour, is not welcomed into most mathematics classrooms. But play is … Continue reading →

Read more »

grim knight [a riddle]

October 13, 2016
By
grim knight [a riddle]

The Riddler of this week had a riddle that is a variation of the knight tour problem, namely “…how long is the longest path a knight can travel on a standard 8-by-8 chessboard without letting the path intersect itself?” the riddle being then one of a self-avoiding random walk [kind]… As I could not get […]

Read more »

Stan case studies!

October 13, 2016
By
Stan case studies!

In the spirit of reproducible research, we (that is, Bob*) set up this beautiful page of Stan case studies. Check it out. * Bob here. Michael set the site up, I set this page up, and lots of people have contributed case studies and we’re always...

Read more »

Transparency, replications, and publication

October 13, 2016
By

Bob Reed responded to my recent Retraction Watch article (where I argued that corrections and retractions are not a feasible solution to the problem of flawed science, because there are so many fatally flawed papers out there and retraction or correction is such a long, drawn-out process) with a post on openness, data transparency, and […] The post Transparency, replications, and publication appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe