December 1, 2014
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As we count the year down, there's always time for more reading!Birg, L. and A. Goeddeke, 2014. Christmas economics - A sleigh ride. Discussion Paper No. 220, CEGE, University of Gottingen.Geraci, A., D. Fabbri, and C. Monfardini, 2014. Testing exogene...

## Stan hack session at Columbia on Saturday

December 1, 2014
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[this post is by Daniel] For those of you in NYC this Saturday, we’re having a Stan hack session from 11 am – 5 pm. A lot of the Stan developers will be around. It’s free, but registration required. See link below. Bring a laptop, some data, and a model you want to fit. Or […] The post Stan hack session at Columbia on Saturday appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## Quick tips on giving research presentations

December 1, 2014
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Hi, I’m writing this so I can refer to it when covering “giving a presentation” in my statistical communication class. The general idea is for me to spend less time in class talking and more time helping out students with their ideas. So, if I have any general advice on presentations, let me give it […] The post Quick tips on giving research presentations appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## Eight Christmas Gift Ideas for the Statistically Interested

December 1, 2014
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Christmas is soon upon us and here are some gift ideas for your statistically inclined friends (or perhaps for you to put on your own wish list). If you have other suggestions please leave a comment! :) 1. Games of probability A recently released g...

## On deck this week

December 1, 2014
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Mon: Quick tips on giving research presentations Tues: How to read (in quantitative social science). And by implication, how to write. Wed: If observational studies are outlawed, then only outlaws will do observational studies Thurs: Designing a study to see if “the 10x programmer” is a real thing Fri: The persistence of the “schools are […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## On deck this month

December 1, 2014
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Here goes: Quick tips on giving research presentations How to read (in quantitative social science). And by implication, how to write. If observational studies are outlawed, then only outlaws will do observational studies Designing a study to see if “the 10x programmer” is a real thing The persistence of the “schools are failing” story line […] The post On deck this month appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Light entertainment: fruits in space

December 1, 2014
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Amusing. Another example of multiple scales, discussed here. (via Gelman)

## Quantum Computing and Annealing

December 1, 2014
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My head is spinning. The quantum computing thing is really happening. Or not. Or most likely it's happening in small but significant part and continuing to advance slowly but surely. The Slate piece from last May still seems about right (but read ...

## Compute maximum and minimum values for rows and columns in SAS

December 1, 2014
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A common question on SAS discussion forums is how to compute the minimum and maximum values across several variables. It is easy to compute statistics across rows by using the DATA step. This article shows how to compute the minimum and maximum values for each observation (across variables) and, for […]

## 3 YEARS AGO: MONTHLY (Nov.) MEMORY LANE

November 30, 2014
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MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: November 2011. I mark in red 3 posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.* (11/1) RMM-4:“Foundational Issues in Statistical Modeling: Statistical Model Specification and Validation*” by Aris Spanos, in Rationality, Markets, and Morals (Special Topic: Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: Where Do/Should They Meet?”) (11/3) Who is Really Doing the […]

## A question about varying-intercept, varying-slope multilevel models for cross-national analysis

November 30, 2014
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Sean de Hoon writes: In many cross-national comparative studies, mixed effects models are being used in which a number of slopes are fixed and the slopes of one or two variables of interested are allowed to vary across countries. The aim is often then to explain the varying slopes by referring to some country-level characteristic. […] The post A question about varying-intercept, varying-slope multilevel models for cross-national analysis appeared first…

## An example of hierarchical conditional-logistic Bayesian estimation, applied to punishment choice in a public goods game.

November 30, 2014
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Conditional-logistic regression and softmax regression (a.k.a. multinomial logit regression) are covered in Chapter 22 of DBDA2E, but no examples of hierarchical versions are given in that chapter. An example of hierarchical conditional-logistic Bayesi...

## Change in temperature in Netherlands over the last century

November 30, 2014
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I read a post 'race for the warmest year' at sargasso.nl. They used a plot, originating from Ed Hawkins to see how 2014 progressed to be warmest year. Obviously I wanted to make the same plot using R. In addition, I wondered which parts of the year had...

## Unstrooping names

November 29, 2014
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Baptiste Coulmont writes: Following your recent blog post on stroopy names, I do not resist the temptation to send you a recent article on first name changes in France. The point of the article is simple: people who change their first names often explicitly speak about national identity changes in their request for a new […] The post Unstrooping names appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## The A. R. Bergstrom Prize, 2015

November 28, 2014
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## The A. R. Bergstrom Prize, 2015

November 28, 2014
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## How can I learn Bayesian modeling?

November 28, 2014
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An email inquires:Dear Sir, Greetings. I am a PhD ... student based in [country]. I work in the area of [...] and much of the new models in this area are based on Bayesian approach. I too feel this approach needs to [be] adopted ... . I Sir would too l...

## Arizona plagiarism update

November 28, 2014
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More details on the Matthew Whitaker case from Brian Gratton and from Rick Shenkman. Shenkman even goes to the trouble of interviewing some of the people involved. It’s not pretty. One of the people involved in this sad, sad story, is Michael Crow, formerly at Columbia and currently president of the University of Arizona Arizona […] The post Arizona plagiarism update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

November 28, 2014
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As part of the newly established Statistics/Health Economics seminars that our group is now organising at UCL, we are preparing a very exciting event for December 15th (so basically just a couple of weeks away).A few of us got to talk about several gen...

## Bayes Pharma 2015 – call for abstracts

November 28, 2014
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The organisation of the next Bayes Pharma conference is in full swing. We've confirmed the invited speakers and finalised quite a few of the details too. We've now opened the call for abstracts.A flyer with some extra info is available from here. Final...

## Mathematical Statistics Lesson of the Day – Complete Statistics

$Mathematical Statistics Lesson of the Day – Complete Statistics$

The set-up for today’s post mirrors my earlier Statistics Lesson of the Day on sufficient statistics. Suppose that you collected data in order to estimate a parameter .  Let be the probability density function (PDF)* for . Let be a statistic based on . If implies that then  is said to be complete.  To deconstruct this esoteric […]

## Le Monde puzzle [#887quater]

November 27, 2014
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And yet another resolution of this combinatorics Le Monde mathematical puzzle: that puzzle puzzled many more people than usual! This solution is by Marco F, using a travelling salesman representation and existing TSP software. N is a golden number if the sequence {1,2,…,N} can be reordered so that the sum of any consecutive pair is a […]

## Quantitative literacy is tough! Or, I had no idea that, in 1958, 96% of Americans disapproved of interracial marriage!

November 27, 2014
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Mark Palko linked to this data-rich cartoon by Randall Munroe: And I was stunned, first by the data on interracial marriage and then, retrospectively, by my earlier ignorance of these data. Was approval of interracial marriage only 4% in 1958? I had no idea. I looked it up at the Gallup site and it seems […] The post Quantitative literacy is tough! Or, I had no idea that, in 1958,…