On deck this week

May 2, 2016
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Mon: Are you pro or anti-biotics? Tues: “Null hypothesis” = “A specific random number generator” Wed: No guarantee Thurs: The Puzzle of Paul Meehl: An intellectual history of research criticism in psychology Fri: Redemption Sat: Doing dat...

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How much do New Yorkers tip taxi drivers?

May 2, 2016
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How much do New Yorkers tip taxi drivers?

When I read Robert Allison's article about the cost of a taxi ride in New York City, I was struck by the scatter plot (shown at right; click to enlarge) that plots the tip amount against the total bill for 12 million taxi rides. The graph clearly reveals diagonal and […] The post How much do New Yorkers tip taxi drivers? appeared first on The DO Loop.

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New features in imager 0.20

May 2, 2016
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New features in imager 0.20

imager, an R package for image processing, has been updated to v0.20 on CRAN. It’s a major upgrade with a lot of new features, better documentation and a more consistent API. imager now has 130 functions, and I myself keep forgetting all that’s in there. I’ve added a tutorial vignette that should help you get […]

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On Forecasting Variation and Covariation

May 2, 2016
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One hallmark of a great idea is that it's "obvious" (ex post). Fantastic recent work by Bollerslev, Patton, and Quaedvlieg (BPQ) certainly passes that test. BPQ build on the classic Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard result that the precision with which r...

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No Retractions, Only Corrections: A manifesto.

May 1, 2016
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Under the heading, “Why that Evolution paper should never have been retracted: A reviewer speaks out,” biologist Ben Ashby writes: The problems of post-publication peer review have already been highlighted elsewhere, and it certainly isn’t rare for a paper to be retracted due to an honest mistake (although most retractions are due to misconduct). Moreover, […] The post No Retractions, Only Corrections: A manifesto. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Controlling for variation in the weather in a regression analysis: Joe and Uri should learn about multilevel models and then they could give even better advice

May 1, 2016
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Joe Simmons and Uri Simonsohn have an interesting post here. Unfortunately their blog doesn’t have a comment section so I’m commenting here. They write this at the end of their post: Another is to use daily dummies. This option can easily be worse. It can lower statistical power by throwing away data. First, one can […] The post Controlling for variation in the weather in a regression analysis: Joe and…

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SoFiE 2016 Hong Kong

April 30, 2016
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SoFiE 2016 Hong Kong

Still not too late to register!  I hope to see you there.REGISTRATION_9th Annual SoFiE Conference_June 14-17, 2016, Hong KongREGISTRATION9th Annual Society for Financial Econometrics (SoFiE) Conference June 15-17, 2016 and Pre-Confe...

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Some folks like to get away, take a holiday from the neighborhood

April 30, 2016
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Saw a couple of plays, both excellent. Fun Home. Compared to what I remembered of the book (which I also thought was excellent), the play seemed to be more about her family and less about Bechdel herself. But that worked for me. Bechdel’s story won’t be shared by everybody, but we all have families. The […] The post Some folks like to get away, take a holiday from the neighborhood…

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Gary Venter’s age-period-cohort decomposition of US male mortality trends

April 29, 2016
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Gary Venter’s age-period-cohort decomposition of US male mortality trends

Following up on yesterday’s post on mortality trends, I wanted to share with you a research note by actuary Gary Venter, “A Quick Look at Cohort Effects in US Male Mortality.” Venter produces this graph: And he writes: Cohort effects in mortality tend to be difficult to explain. Often strings of coincidences are invoked – […] The post Gary Venter’s age-period-cohort decomposition of US male mortality trends appeared first on…

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Lots of buzz regarding this postdoc position in London

April 29, 2016
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Lots of buzz regarding this postdoc position in London

Tom Churcher writes: We are currently advertising for an infectious disease modeller to investigate the impact of insecticide resistance on malaria control in Africa. The position is for 3 years in the first instance and is funded by the Wellcome Trust. No previous malaria or mosi experience required. Please circulate to anyone who might be […] The post Lots of buzz regarding this postdoc position in London appeared first on…

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gap frequencies [& e]

April 28, 2016
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gap frequencies [& e]

A riddle from The Riddler where brute-force simulation does not pay: For a given integer N, pick at random without replacement integers between 1 and N by prohibiting consecutive integers until all possible entries are exhausted. What is the frequency of selected integers as N grows to infinity? A simple implementation of the random experiment […]

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Matlab version of BEST

April 28, 2016
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Matlab version of BEST

Nils Winter has created a Matlab interface to BEST (Bayesian estimation for two groups of metric-scale data). You can read about it at his GitHub README. 

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Integrating graphs into your workflow

April 28, 2016
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Integrating graphs into your workflow

Discussion of statistical graphics typically focuses on individual graphs (for example here). But the real gain in your research comes from integrating graphs into your workflow. You want to be able to make the graphs you want, when you want them. At the same time, the graph have to be good enough that you can […] The post Integrating graphs into your workflow appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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“Kasparov To Face Caruana, Nakamura, So In Ultimate Blitz Challenge”

April 28, 2016
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E. J. pointed me to this announcement: For the first time since his retirement in 2005 Garry Kasparov will play chess against some of the best players on the planet. The 13th world champion agreed to meet the top three finishers of the 2016 U.S. Championship in a blitz tournament. That turned out to be […] The post “Kasparov To Face Caruana, Nakamura, So In Ultimate Blitz Challenge” appeared first…

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Le Monde puzzle [#960]

April 27, 2016
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Le Monde puzzle [#960]

An arithmetic Le Monde mathematical puzzle: Given an integer k>1, consider the sequence defined by F(1)=1+1 mod k, F²(1)=F(1)+2 mod k, F³(1)=F²(1)+3 mod k, &tc. [With this notation, F is not necessarily a function.] For which value of k is the sequence the entire {0,1,…,k-1} set? This leads to an easy brute force resolution, for […]

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Bayes on Jupyter

April 27, 2016
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Bayes on Jupyter

I am working on an updated version of my workshop, Bayesian Statistics Made Simple, now using Jupyter notebooks (formerly known as IPython). It's still a work in progress, but you can see a draft of my slides here:  If you want to run the code, ...

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64 Shades of Gray: The subtle effect of chessboard images on foreign policy polarization

April 27, 2016
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64 Shades of Gray:  The subtle effect of chessboard images on foreign policy polarization

Brian Nosek pointed me to this 2013 paper by Theodora Zarkadi and Simone Schnall, “‘Black and White’ thinking: Visual contrast polarizes moral judgment,” which begins: Recent research has emphasized the role of intuitive processes in morality by documenting the link between affect and moral judgment. The present research tested whether incidental visual cues without any […] The post 64 Shades of Gray: The subtle effect of chessboard images on foreign…

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Packages: A new way to share SAS/IML programs

April 27, 2016
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Packages: A new way to share SAS/IML programs

My previous post highlighted presentations at SAS Global Forum 2016 that heavily used SAS/IML software. Several of the authors clearly want to share their work with the wider SAS analytical community. They include their SAS/IML program in an appendix or mention a web site or email address from which the […] The post Packages: A new way to share SAS/IML programs appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Introducing Shift Register, My New Electronics Blog

April 27, 2016
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Introducing Shift Register, My New Electronics Blog

I have started a new blog, which I call shift register. It’s about electronics projects I’m doing, mostly building circuits on breadboards and playing with Arduinos. Electronics have been an interest of mine since I was a child. I played with electronics kits from a very early age, and as a teenager spent countless hours … Continue reading Introducing Shift Register, My New Electronics Blog

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High school student builds interactive R class for the intimidated with the JHU DSL

April 27, 2016
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Annika Salzberg is currently a biology undergraduate at Haverford College majoring in biology. While in high-school here in Baltimore she developed and taught an R class to her classmates at the Park School. Her interest in R grew out of a project wher...

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An update on Georgia Tech’s MOOC-based CS degree

April 27, 2016
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This article in Inside Higher Ed discusses next steps for Georgia Tech’s ground-breaking low-cost CS degree based on MOOCs run by Udacity. With Sebastian Thrun stepping down as CEO at Udacity, it seems both Georgia Tech and Udacity might be moving in...

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Estimer une Proportion sur une Question Sensible, par Enquête

April 26, 2016
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Estimer une Proportion sur une Question Sensible, par Enquête

Comme le rapportait Slate hier (dans un article qui, malheureusement ne mérite pas d’être lu), un joli sujet a été proposé au baccalauréat au lycée français de Pondichéry, en mathématiques. Ce sujet est d’autant plus intéressant qu’il revient sur une méthode assez classique pour questionner les gens sur des questions sensibles (ici sur le téléchargement pirate, mais on peut poser la même question sur la fraude, ou des pratiques sexuelles). Comme le…

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On Nested Models

April 26, 2016
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On Nested Models

We have been recently working on and presenting on nested modeling issues. These are situations where the output of one trained machine learning model is part of the input of a later model or procedure. I am now of the opinion that correct treatment of nested models is one of the biggest opportunities for improvement … Continue reading On Nested Models

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