Le Menu Dit : a translation app

March 10, 2016
By
Le Menu Dit : a translation app

This post is by Phil Price. “Le Menu Dit” is an iPhone app that some friends and I wrote, which translates restaurant menus from English into French. (The name is French for “The Menu Says.”) The friends are Nathan Addy and another excellent programmer who would like to remain nameless for now. Here’s how the […] The post Le Menu Dit : a translation app appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

Read more »

Bruised and battered, I couldn’t tell what I felt. I was ungeneralizable to myself.

March 9, 2016
By
Bruised and battered, I couldn’t tell what I felt.  I was ungeneralizable to myself.

One more rep. The new thing you just have to read, if you’re following the recent back-and-forth on replication in psychology, is this post at Retraction Watch in which Nosek et al. respond to criticisms from Gilbert et al. regarding the famous replication project. Gilbert et al. claimed that many of the replications in the […] The post Bruised and battered, I couldn’t tell what I felt. I was ungeneralizable…

Read more »

How do you react to a probability forecast?

March 9, 2016
By
How do you react to a probability forecast?

There is a healthy debate going on about last night's Michigan primary on the Democratic side, in which Bernie Sanders pulled off a major upset. Polls leading up to the primary put Hillary Clinton ahead by about 20 percent points. That would be a huge margin. Fivethirtyeight, which has been doing a stellar job covering the elections, uses polls heavily in generating forecasts, and they had predicted that Clinton would…

Read more »

Comparative histograms: Panel and overlay histograms in SAS

March 9, 2016
By
Comparative histograms: Panel and  overlay histograms in SAS

You can use histograms to visualize the distribution of data. A comparative histogram enables you to compare two or more distributions, which usually represent subpopulations in the data. Common subpopulations include males versus females or a control group versus an experimental group. There are two common ways to construct a […] The post Comparative histograms: Panel and overlay histograms in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

Read more »

Postdoctoral Researcher and Research Fellow positions in Computer Science in Helsinki, Finland

March 9, 2016
By

There are several PostDoc positions open in Aalto University and University of Helsinki related to statistical modeling, Bayesian inference, probabilistic programming (including Stan) and machine learning. There is also possibility to collaborate with me :) See a detailed list of the research areas and the full call text. The deadline is April 1, 2016. My […] The post Postdoctoral Researcher and Research Fellow positions in Computer Science in Helsinki, Finland…

Read more »

Monash Business Analytics Team Profile

Monash Business Analytics Team Profile

Our research group been growing lately, as you can see below! We were featured in the latest issue of the Monash newsletter The Insider. Check it out.

Read more »

preserving frequencies without resampling

March 8, 2016
By
preserving frequencies without resampling

An interesting question came up on X validated a few days ago: given a probability vector p=(p¹,…,p⁷), is there a way to pick 5 values in {1,…,7} without replacement and still preserve the probability repartition in the resulting sample? In other words, is there a sampling without replacement strategy that leads to for i=1,…,7..? Unless […]

Read more »

Bayesian inference for network links

March 8, 2016
By

A colleague writes: I’m working with a doctoral student on a latent affinity network problem and we keep hitting challenges in sampling, in our case using Metropolis-Hastings, for the network links. As you can imagine, lots of local modes, things get stuck, etc . . . Any suggestions on how to sample network links? My […] The post Bayesian inference for network links appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

The American Statistical Association makes a statement on p-values

March 8, 2016
By
The American Statistical Association makes a statement on p-values

This deserves to be read, re-read, re-re-read, and taken to heart. The ASA makes their statement on p-values.Some key points:p-values by themselves offer very little information on the utility of a model, the truth of a statement, or what is behind a d...

Read more »

Stan – The Bayesian Data Scientist’s Best Friend

March 8, 2016
By
Stan – The Bayesian Data Scientist’s Best Friend

My friend Juuso Parkkinen has interesting Stan related blog, which is worth following. The above cool animation is from today’s post discussing the updated results of using Stan to model apartment prices in Finland. Few weeks ago Juuso also blogged about a probabilistic programming seminar in Finland with a title Stan – The Bayesian Data […] The post Stan – The Bayesian Data Scientist’s Best Friend appeared first on Statistical…

Read more »

For Whom Will the Michigan Mitt Swing?

March 8, 2016
By
For Whom Will the Michigan Mitt Swing?

Tomorrow, March 8th, Michigan with 130 delegates gets to vote one which of the Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders should be the Democratic presidential nominee. Michigan is an important state because is represents a large number o...

Read more »

Papamoa College statistics excursion to Hamilton Zoo

March 8, 2016
By
Papamoa College statistics excursion to Hamilton Zoo

Last week I had a lovely experience. I visited the Hamilton Observatory and Zoo as part of a Statistics excursion with the Year 13 statistics class of Papamoa College. The trip was organised to help students learn about where data … Continue reading →

Read more »

Smiley faces were never seen

March 7, 2016
By
Smiley faces were never seen

Jay Livingston shares a graph from this paper by Shiry Ginosar, Kate Rakelly, Sarah Sachs, Brian Yin, and Alexei Eforos: The graphs summarizes an analysis from a database of high school yearbook photos. Livingston writes: Ginosar et al. have only one explanation for the upward trend – technology. In the early 20th century, they say, […] The post Smiley faces were never seen appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

The problems with p-values are not just with p-values: My comments on the recent ASA statement

March 7, 2016
By

The American Statistical Association just released a committee report on the use of p-values. I was one of the members of the committee but I did not write the report. We were also given the opportunity to add our comments. Here’s what I sent: The problems with p-values are not just with p-values The ASA’s […] The post The problems with p-values are not just with p-values: My comments on…

Read more »

Don’t throw out the error control baby with the bad statistics bathwater

March 7, 2016
By
Don’t throw out the error control baby with the bad statistics bathwater

My invited comments on the ASA Document on P-values* The American Statistical Association is to be credited with opening up a discussion into p-values; now an examination of the foundations of other key statistical concepts is needed. Statistical significance tests are a small part of a rich set of “techniques for systematically appraising and bounding […]

Read more »

On deck this week

March 7, 2016
By

Mon: Smiley faces were never seen Tues: Bayesian inference for network links Wed: Some people are so easy to contact and some people aren’t. Thurs: Good advice can do you bad Fri: Statistics is like basketball, or knitting Sat: 0.05 is a joke Sun: The unbelievable reason that Jennifer Lawrence is using Waic and cross-validation […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Read more »

How to get fired, the data scientist edition

March 7, 2016
By

Investors of Herbalife (HLF) are owed a full explanation of the metrics disaster that the management disclosed suddenly to the SEC last week. As a regulator, the SEC should be requesting much more information about what happened. (Click on the 8K filed in March 2016. Here is the LA Times article.) On Feb 25, Herbalife management held an earnings call to discuss 2015 4th quarter and full year results. Investors…

Read more »

How to use COLLECTION effects to specify pairwise interactions in SAS

March 7, 2016
By
How to use COLLECTION effects to specify pairwise interactions in SAS

Most SAS regression procedures support the "stars and bars" operators, which enable you to create models that include main effects and all higher-order interaction effects. You can also easily create models that include all n-way interactions up to a specified value of n. However, it can be a challenge to […] The post How to use COLLECTION effects to specify pairwise interactions in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

Read more »

I was wrong

March 6, 2016
By
I was wrong

A few years ago I noted a report of a new journal with a title that, to my amusement, seemed to reflect a Rat-Pack-era sensibility. I wrote: Coase and Wang’s new journal might be great, but I bet it won’t be called “Man and the Economy.” But, ...

Read more »

Clinton’s Lack of Public Support Made up by Super-PACs

March 6, 2016
By
Clinton’s Lack of Public Support Made up by Super-PACs

Hillary Clinton, with only $30 million raised in February far below the $43 million raised by her rival Bernie Sanders, Clinton is falling desperately short of public backing.Fortunately, she has friends in high places. These friends are increasing the...

Read more »

Replication crisis crisis: Why I continue in my “pessimistic conclusions about reproducibility”

March 5, 2016
By
Replication crisis crisis:  Why I continue in my “pessimistic conclusions about reproducibility”

A couple days we again discussed the replication crisis in psychology—the problem that all sorts of ridiculous studies on topics such as political moderation and shades of gray, or power pose, or fat arms and political attitudes, or ovulation and vote preference, or ovulation and clothing, or beauty and sex ratios, or elderly-related words and […] The post Replication crisis crisis: Why I continue in my “pessimistic conclusions about reproducibility”…

Read more »

“The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics”

March 5, 2016
By
“The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics”

Someone pointed me to this paper (by Anthony Bartolotta, Sean Carroll, Stefan Leichenauer, and Jason Pollack) and asked me what I thought. I didn’t have the time to look into it in any detail, but based on the title it seemed a bit Jaynesian. I sent it to a statistician and former physicist, who wrote: […] The post “The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Read more »

Prediction: 64% Sanders Wins Majority of Pledged Deligates

March 5, 2016
By
Prediction: 64% Sanders Wins Majority of Pledged Deligates

There are many ways so predict the future. All of them have a fair degree of uncertainty. Nate Silver at FiveThityEight uses a measure of ethnicity and political leanings to predict how well Sanders will do in different states. This seems like a sound method to me though it is not the only way to make predictions.For the last month I have been playing with campaign contributions data and have…

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe