Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis

August 31, 2015
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Chris Guure writes: I am trying to construct an informative prior by synthesizing or collecting some information from literature (meta-analysis) and then to apply that to a real data set (it is longitudinal data) for over 20 years follow-up. In constructing the prior using the meta-analysis data, the issue of publication bias came up. I […] The post Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured

August 31, 2015
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Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured

I agree with Uri Simonsohn that you don’t learn much by looking at the distribution of all the p-values that have appeared in some literature. Uri explains: Most p-values reported in most papers are irrelevant for the strategic behavior of interest. Covariates, manipulation checks, main effects in studies testing interactions, etc. Including them we underestimate […] The post Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured appeared first on…

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On deck this week

August 31, 2015
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Mon: Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis Tues: Stan attribution Wed: Cannabis/IQ follow-up: Same old story Thurs: Defining conditional probability Fri: In defense of endless arguments Sat: Emails I never finished reading Sun: B...

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More shallow science on obesity measures

August 31, 2015
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More shallow science on obesity measures

For those who read the New York Times's stories denigrating BMI as an obesity metric, you have heard only a small part of the story. Their latest senasationalist coverage says that 18% of BMI-obese people are not really obese, with 12% labeled as "healthy obese" and 6% called "skinny fat". This is a major missed opportunity by an important newspaper in promoting deeper thinking about scientific data. The first question…

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Compute the number of digits in an integer

August 31, 2015
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Compute the number of digits in an integer

The title of this blog post might seem strange, but I occasionally need to compute the number of digits in a number, usually because I am trying to stuff an integer value into a string. Each time, I have to derive the formula from scratch, so I am writing this […] The post Compute the number of digits in an integer appeared first on The DO Loop.

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20 ways to improve as a teacher of statistics (Part 1)

August 31, 2015
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20 ways to improve as a teacher of statistics (Part 1)

It embarrasses me to look back on how I taught statistics ten years ago. Were I still teaching in a university, I would not be teaching the same things the same way I did then. I did the best I … Continue reading →

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20 ways to improve as a teacher of statistics (Part 1)

August 31, 2015
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20 ways to improve as a teacher of statistics (Part 1)

It embarrasses me to look back on how I taught statistics ten years ago. Were I still teaching in a university, I would not be teaching the same things the same way I did then. I did the best I … Continue reading →

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“Another bad chart for you to criticize”

August 30, 2015
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“Another bad chart for you to criticize”

Stuart Buck sends in this Onion-worthy delight: The post “Another bad chart for you to criticize” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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New CEA Overview of GDO

August 29, 2015
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The U.S. Council of Economic Advisors has a nice new review of "Gross Domestic Output" (GDO), a simple average of expenditure- and income-side GDP estimates now published by the BEA.In an earlier post I wrote rather negatively about GDO ...

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Performing design calculations (type M and type S errors) on a routine basis?

August 29, 2015
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Somebody writes writes: I am conducting a survival analysis (median follow up ~10 years) of subjects who enrolled on a prospective, non-randomized clinical trial for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. The data were originally collected for research purposes and specifically to determine PFS and OS of the investigational regimen versus historic controls. The trial has been […] The post Performing design calculations (type M and type S errors) on a routine…

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New paper on psychology replication

August 28, 2015
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New paper on psychology replication

The Open Science Collaboration, a team led by psychology researcher Brian Nosek, organized the replication of 100 published psychology experiments. They report: A large portion of replications produced weaker evidence for the original findings despite using materials provided by the original authors, review in advance for methodological fidelity, and high statistical power to detect the […] The post New paper on psychology replication appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Bayes theorem in real life

August 27, 2015
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Bayes theorem in real life

I had a chance to practice Bayesian inference in real life today: at 1pm my wife called to tell me that the carbon monoxide (CO) alarm at the house was going off.  Immediately two hypotheses came to mind: (1) there is a dangerous amount of CO in m...

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A political sociological course on statistics for high school students

August 27, 2015
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Ben Frisch writes: I am designing a semester long non-AP Statistics course for high school juniors and seniors. I am wondering if you had some advice for the design of my class. My currentthinking for the design of the class includes: 0) Brief introduction to R/ R Studio and descriptive statistics and data sheet structure. […] The post A political sociological course on statistics for high school students appeared first…

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Data Science for Managers (short course)

August 27, 2015
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Data Science for Managers (short course)

I am teaching part of a short-course on Data Science for Managers from 10–12 October in Melbourne. Course Overview The impact of Data Science on modern business is second only to the introduction of computers. And yet, for many businesses the barrier of entry remains too high due to lack of knowhow, organisational inertia, difficulties […]

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The Point Of A Chart

August 27, 2015
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The Point Of A Chart

When creating charts, it’s important to pick the one that actually fits not just the data, but the task. That can require going outside your comfort zone to use something beyond the four or five most common chart types. Here is an example where the original chart does not support comparison between two different sets of numbers, … Continue reading The Point Of A Chart

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abcfr 0.9-3

August 26, 2015
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abcfr 0.9-3

In conjunction with our reliable ABC model choice via random forest paper, about to be resubmitted to Bioinformatics, we have contributed an R package called abcrf that produces a most likely model and its posterior probability out of an ABC reference table. In conjunction with the realisation that we could devise an approximation to the […]

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abcfr 0.9-3

August 26, 2015
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abcfr 0.9-3

In conjunction with our reliable ABC model choice via random forest paper, about to be resubmitted to Bioinformatics, we have contributed an R package called abcrf that produces a most likely model and its posterior probability out of an ABC reference table. In conjunction with the realisation that we could devise an approximation to the […]

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Biased Estimation of Marginal Effects

August 26, 2015
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Biased Estimation of Marginal Effects

I began a recent post with the comment:"One thing that a lot of practitioners seem to be unaware of (or they choose to ignore it) is that in many of the common situations where we use regression analysis to estimate elasticities, these e...

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Vizzy vizzy vizzy viz

August 26, 2015
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Vizzy vizzy vizzy viz

Nadia Hassan points me to this post by Matthew Yglesias, who writes: Here’s a very cool data visualization from HowMuch.net that took me a minute to figure out because it’s a little bit unorthodox. The way it works is that it visualizes the entire world’s economic output as a circle. That circle is then subdivided […] The post Vizzy vizzy vizzy viz appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Losing count of money bags

August 26, 2015
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Losing count of money bags

I found this chart on a Munich publication called Süddeutsche Zeitung. This appeared during the most recent Greek/Euro crisis. The bags of money were financial obligations that were coming due from June 2015 to December 2015. There were three creditors,...

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Christensen on Term Structure Modeling at EUI

August 26, 2015
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Jens Christensen will give a Euro-Area Business Cycle Network three-day course at EUI, September 7-9. Jens is fantastic. Plus it's Florence in early September. It's not too late to register!Course SyllabusRecommended Reading ListCourse ScheduleLis...

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Monitor convergence during simulation studies in SAS

August 26, 2015
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Monitor convergence during simulation studies in SAS

Ugh! Your favorite regression procedure just printed a warning to the SAS log. Something is wrong, and your attempt to fit a model to the data has not succeeded. A typical message is "WARNING: The validity of the model fit is questionable," perhaps followed by some additional diagnostic messages about […] The post Monitor convergence during simulation studies in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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The Distribution of a Ratio of Correlated Normals

August 25, 2015
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The Distribution of a Ratio of Correlated Normals

Suppose that the random variables X1 and X2 are jointly distributed as bivariate Normal, with means of θ1 and θ2, variances of σ12 and σ22 respectively, and a correlation coefficient of ρ.In this post we're going to be looking at the distribution ...

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