Incomplete Data by Design: Bringing Machine Learning to Marketing Research

May 6, 2013
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Incomplete Data by Design: Bringing Machine Learning to Marketing Research

Survey research deals with the problem of question wording by always asking the same question.  Thus, the Gallup Daily Tracking is filled with examples of moving averages for the exact same question asked precisely the same way every day. &nb...

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Talking about MOOCs on MPT Direct Connection

May 6, 2013
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Watch Monday, April 29, 2013 on PBS. See more from Direct Connection. I appeared on Maryland Public Television's Direct Connection with Jeff Salkin last Monday to talk about MOOCs (along with our Dean Mike Klag).

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Against optimism about social science

May 6, 2013
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Against optimism about social science

Social science research has been getting pretty bad press recently, what with the Excel buccaneers who didn’t know how to handle data with different numbers of observations per country, and the psychologist who published dozens of papers based on fabricated data, and the Evilicious guy who wouldn’t let people review his data tapes, etc etc. [...]The post Against optimism about social science appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Screening screening

May 6, 2013
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Mammograms continue to be an emotional and controversial topic. I blogged about it some time ago. (link) Felix Salmon, whose blog should be daily reading, praises an article by Peggy Orenstein called "Our Feel Good War on Breast Cancer", NYT Magazine (link). Salmon's blog provides a quick summary; Orenstein's article is very long. Orenstein's point of view has particular weight because she was diagnosed at an early age, and was…

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Compute confidence intervals for percentiles in SAS

May 6, 2013
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Compute confidence intervals for percentiles in SAS

PROC UNIVARIATE has provided confidence intervals for standard percentiles (quartiles) for eons. However, in SAS 9.3M2 (featuring the 12.1 analytical procedures) you can use a new feature in PROC UNIVARIATE to compute confidence intervals for a specified list of percentiles. To be clear, percentiles and quantiles are essentially the same [...]

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The half variance approximation for mean returns

May 6, 2013
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The half variance approximation for mean returns

What’s that thing about arithmetic and geometric returns and the variance? Previously An introduction to the difference between simple and log returns is: A tale of two returns Issue Suppose you are predicting the mean annual return of an asset for some number of years.  To simplify the discussion, let’s buy into the fantasy that … Continue reading →

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Teaching a service course in statistics

May 6, 2013
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Teaching a service course in statistics

Teaching a service course in statistics Most students who enrol in an initial course in statistics at university level do so because they have to. I did some research on attitudes to statistics in my entry level quantitative methods course, … Continue reading →

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Living Earth Platform

May 6, 2013
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Living Earth Platform

Statistics are an important source of information. But in a highly connected world it’s just one source among others. The ambitious international scientific …Continue reading »

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Establishing priority

May 6, 2013
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Establishing priority

The nature of research is that other people are probably working on similar ideas to you, and it is possible that someone will beat you to publishing them. When I was working on my PhD, I discovered another PhD thesis by Iris Yeung at UKC with almost exactly the same title as mine, and published a year earlier. In those days, a copy of a thesis had to be printed…

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Aaronson, COLT, Bayesians and Frequentists

May 6, 2013
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Aaronson, COLT, Bayesians and Frequentists

Aaronson, COLT, Bayesians and Frequentists I am reading Scott Aaronson’s book “Quantum Computing Since Democritus” which can be found here. The book is about computational complexity, quantum mechanics, quantum computing and many other things. It’s a great book and I highly recommend it. Much of the material on complexity classes is tough going but you […]

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Colors in LaTeX

May 6, 2013
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Colors in LaTeX

This is a guest post by Rico Magnucki from SpanDeX Introduction Trying to highlight something, you may reach a point where bold or italics written text is not enough. In situations like these, colors can be very helpful. Like every writing tool, LaTeX has some possibilities to deal with it. At first you need to include a package. \usepackage{xcolor} You may wonder why we’re using xcolor and not color. It is…

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How to Calculate a Partial Correlation Coefficient in R: An Example with Oxidizing Ammonia to Make Nitric Acid

How to Calculate a Partial Correlation Coefficient in R: An Example with Oxidizing Ammonia to Make Nitric Acid

Introduction Today, I will talk about the math behind calculating partial correlation and illustrate the computation in R with an example involving the oxidation of ammonia to make nitric acid using a built-in data set in R called stackloss.  In a separate post, I will also share an R function that I wrote to estimate partial correlation. […]

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Cleaning up science

May 5, 2013
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David Hogg pointed me to this post by Gary Marcus, reviewing this skeptics’ all-star issue of Perspectives on Psychological Science that features replication culture heroes Jelte Wicherts, Hal Pashler, Arina Bones, E. J. Wagenmakers, Gregory Francis, Hal Pashler, John Ioannidis, and Uri Simonsohn. I agree with pretty much everything Marcus has to say. In addition [...]The post Cleaning up science appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Cleaning up science

May 5, 2013
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David Hogg pointed me to this post by Gary Marcus, reviewing this skeptics’ all-star issue of Perspectives on Psychological Science that features replication culture heroes Jelte Wicherts, Hal Pashler, Arina Bones, E. J. Wagenmakers, Gregory Francis, Hal Pashler, John Ioannidis, and Uri Simonsohn. I agree with pretty much everything Marcus has to say. In addition [...]

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The New York Times Book of Mathematics

May 5, 2013
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This was an good idea: take a bunch of old (and some recent) news articles on developments in mathematics and related ares from the past hundred years. Fun for the math content and historical/nostalgia value. Relive the four-color theorem, Fermat, fractals, and early computing. I have too much of a technical bent to be the [...]The post The New York Times Book of Mathematics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Simulation shows gain of clmm over ANOVA is small

May 5, 2013
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Simulation shows gain of clmm over ANOVA is small

After last post's setting up for a simulation, it is now time to look how the models compare. To my disappointment with my simple simulations of assessors behavior the gain is minimal. Unfortunately, the simulation took much more time than I ...

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La belle-mère et la bataille

May 5, 2013
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La belle-mère et la bataille

Ce soir, les enfants voulaient lancer une partie de bataille dix minutes avant de souper. Devant mon peu d’enthousiasme (on ne sait jamais trop quand ce genre de parties finissent), ma belle-mère a suggéré qu’au lieu de jouer à deux (comme le voulaient les deux grands), on devrait jouer à quatre, et comme ça, ça irait plus vite. Et si ma belle-mère avait raison ? et si elle avait tort…

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One more thought on Hoover historian Niall Ferguson’s thing about Keynes being gay and marrying a ballerina and talking about poetry

May 5, 2013
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One more thought on Hoover historian Niall Ferguson’s thing about Keynes being gay and marrying a ballerina and talking about poetry

We had some interesting comments on our recent reflections on Niall Ferguson’s ill-chosen remarks in which he attributed Keynes’s economic views (I don’t actually know exactly what Keyesianism is, but I think a key part is for the government to run surpluses during economic booms and deficits during recessions) to the Keynes being gay and [...]The post One more thought on Hoover historian Niall Ferguson’s thing about Keynes being gay…

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The Folk Theorem of Statistical Computing

May 4, 2013
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From an email I received the other day: Things are going much better now — it’s interesting, it feels like with both of my models, parameters are slow to converge or get “stuck” and have trouble mixing when the model is somehow ...

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Jesus historian Niall Ferguson and the improving standards of public discourse

May 4, 2013
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Jesus historian Niall Ferguson and the improving standards of public discourse

History professor (or, as the news reports call him, “Harvard historian”) Niall Ferguson got in trouble when speaking at a conference of financial advisors. Tom Kostigen reports: Ferguson responded to a question about Keynes’ famous philosophy of self-interest versus the economic philosophy of Edmund Burke, who believed there was a social contract among the living, [...]The post Jesus historian Niall Ferguson and the improving standards of public discourse appeared first…

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NYC Data Skeptics Meetup

May 3, 2013
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Rachel Schutt writes: The hype surrounding Big Data and Data Science is at a fever pitch with promises to solve the world’s business and social problems, large and small. How accurate or misleading is this message? How is it helping or damaging people, and which people? What opportunities exist for data nerds and entrepreneurs that [...]The post NYC Data Skeptics Meetup appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Bolides: Explore the Eye-Witnessed Meteorites that Collided with Earth

Bolides: Explore the Eye-Witnessed Meteorites that Collided with Earth

Bolides - Visualizing Meteorites [bolid.es] by data visualization designer Carlo Zapponi visualizes all historical occurrences of meteorites that collided with the Earth and were eye-witnessed when falling and hitting the ground. The visualizes is c...

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Setting aside the politics, the debate over the new health-care study reveals that we’re moving to a new high standard of statistical journalism

May 3, 2013
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Pointing to this news article by Megan McArdle discussing a recent study of Medicaid recipients, Jonathan Falk writes: Forget the interpretation for a moment, and the political spin, but haven’t we reached an interesting point when a journalist says things like: When you do an RCT with more than 12,000 people in it, and your [...]The post Setting aside the politics, the debate over the new health-care study reveals that…

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