On deck this week

March 14, 2016
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Mon: Recently in the sister blog Tues: How should statisticians and economists think about recreational gambling? Wed: Lack of free lunch again rears ugly head Thurs: Swimsuit special: “A pure Bayesian or pure non-Bayesian is not forever doomed to use out-of-date methods, but at any given time the purist will be missing some of the […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Which way to die, the Bard asked #onelesspie

March 14, 2016
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Which way to die, the Bard asked #onelesspie

Happy Pi Day! In honor of Xan Gregg, I take aim at another pie chart today. This monstrosity was found on Vox (link): The data pose a major challenge here: almost all the numbers are equal to one. This could...

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Italians do it better!

March 14, 2016
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Italians do it better!

I've just spent a little over one hour to sort out my registration, travel and accommodation for the upcoming ISBA conference, later this year in Sardinia $-$ well, I say "sort out"... I think most of the details have been sorted out, so fingers crosse...

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Monte Carlo estimates of pi and an important statistical lesson

March 14, 2016
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Monte Carlo estimates of pi and an important statistical lesson

Today is March 14th, which is annually celebrated as Pi Day. Today's date, written as 3/14/16, represents the best five-digit approximation of pi. On Pi Day, many people blog about how to approximate pi. This article uses a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate pi, in spite of the fact that […] The post Monte Carlo estimates of pi and an important statistical lesson appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Not So Standard Deviations Episode 11 – Start and Stop

March 14, 2016
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We’ve started a Patreon page! Now you can support the podcast directly by going to our page and making a pledge. This will help Hilary and me build the podcast, add new features, and get some better equipment. Episode 11 is an all craft episode of N...

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Happy PI day

March 13, 2016
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I have never done a post for PI day. This year I want to do so.So, we all know the simple estimation of PI based on random numbers. The code used here is chosen for speed in R.pi2d <- function(N=1000) {  4*sum(rowSums(matrix(runif(N*2)^2,ncol=2...

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Happy PI day

March 13, 2016
By

I have never done a post for PI day. This year I want to do so.So, we all know the simple estimation of PI based on random numbers. The code used here is chosen for speed in R.pi2d <- function(N=1000) {  4*sum(rowSums(matrix(runif(N*2)^2,ncol=2...

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The unbelievable reason that Jennifer Lawrence is using Waic and cross-validation for survival models

March 13, 2016
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Sam Brilleman writes: I’ve been reading two of your recent papers: (1) Gelman A, Hwang J, Vehtari A. Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models. Statistics and Computing 2014; 24: 997-1016. (2) Vehtari A, Gelman A. WAIC and cross-validation in Stan. Submitted. 2014. http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/waic_stan.pdf. Accessed: 6 July 2015. My question in short is: The example […] The post The unbelievable reason that Jennifer Lawrence is using Waic and cross-validation for…

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“A small p-value indicates it’s improbable that the results are due to chance alone” –fallacious or not? (more on the ASA p-value doc)

March 12, 2016
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“A small p-value indicates it’s improbable that the results are due to chance alone” –fallacious or not? (more on the ASA p-value doc)

There’s something about “Principle 2” in the ASA document on p-values that I couldn’t address in my brief commentary, but is worth examining more closely. 2. P-values do not measure (a) the probability that the studied hypothesis is true , or (b) the probability that the data were produced  by random chance alone, (a) is true, […]

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0.05 is a joke

March 12, 2016
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0.05 is a joke

Jim Delaney points to this tutorial by F. Perry Wilson on why the use of a “p less than 0.05” threshold does not imply a false positive rate of 5%, even if all the assumptions of the model are true. This is standard stuff but it’s always good to see it one more time. Delaney […] The post 0.05 is a joke appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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“Why this gun control study might be too good to be true”

March 11, 2016
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“Why this gun control study might be too good to be true”

Jeff Lax points us to this news article by Carolyn Johnson discussing a research paper, “Firearm legislation and firearm mortality in the USA: a cross-sectional, state-level study,” by Bindu Kalesan, Matthew Mobily, Olivia Keiser, Jeffrey Fagan, and Sandro Galea, that just appeared in the medical journal The Lancet. Here are the findings from Kalesan et […] The post “Why this gun control study might be too good to be true”…

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Short course on Statistical Methods for the Value of Information Analysis

March 11, 2016
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We're now ready to start the advertisement for our short course on Statistical Methods for the Value of Information Analysis (I've posted about this here). The course will be at UCL from the 8th to the 9th of June, later this year. I think we have been...

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Statistics is like basketball, or knitting

March 11, 2016
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Statistics is like basketball, or knitting

I had a recent exchange with a news reporter regarding one of those silly psychology studies. I took a look at the article in question—this time it wasn’t published in Psychological Science or PPNAS so it didn’t get saturation publicity—and indeed it was bad, laughably bad. They didn’t just have the garden of forking paths, […] The post Statistics is like basketball, or knitting appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Miserable Teaching Evaluations

March 11, 2016
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Miserable Teaching Evaluations

I have always disliked teaching evaluations, feeling that they fail to measure true teaching effectiveness. And it's not just sour grapes -- really, I swear, I generally do fine and have won several teaching awards. Rather, I simply think that teachi...

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dplyr workshop

March 11, 2016
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dplyr workshop code{white-space: pre;} pre:not([class]) { background-color: white; } if (window.hljs && document.readyState && document.readyState === "complete") { window.setTimeout(function() { hljs.initHighlighting(); }, 0); } ...

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The day after the shock: pollsters, forecasters scratch their heads

March 11, 2016
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Pollsters, forecasters, and the likes were embarrassed by the Bernie Sanders upset in Michigan Tuesday night. Nate Silver called it among the greatest polling error in primary history. Now, they are struggling to explain the big miss. Recall the polls conducted close to the contest showed a Clinton lead of about 20 percent points. The actual outcome was a gap of 1.5 points, with a million votes cast. This type…

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Amazonish warning

March 10, 2016
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Amazonish warning

As in previous years, I want to repost a warning to ‘Og readers that all http links to Amazon.com [and much more rarely to Amazon.fr] products found on this ‘Og are actually susceptible to reward me with an advertising percentage if a purchase is made by the reader in the 24 hours following the entry […]

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Bonferroni, les anniversaires et les terroristes (ou pas)

March 10, 2016
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Le paradoxe des anniversaires est un exercice de probabilité que l’on découvre assez vite. Mais assez souvent, on l’oublie, alors qu’il est en réalité assez profond. Le problème est le suivant: quel est le nombre de personnes qu’il faut réunir pour avoir (au moins) une chance sur 2 pour que deux personnes aient leur anniversaire le même jour. Si on calcule la probabilité que deux personnes dans un groupe de…

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Good advice can do you bad

March 10, 2016
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Here are some examples of good, solid, reasonable statistical advice which can lead people astray. Example 1 Good advice: Statistical significance is not the same as practical significance. How it can mislead: People get the impression that a statistically significant result is more impressive if it’s larger in magnitude. Why it’s misleading: See this classic […] The post Good advice can do you bad appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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The state of the art of interactive graphics

March 10, 2016
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The state of the art of interactive graphics

Scott Klein's team at Propublica published a worthy news application, called "Hell and High Water" (link) I took some time taking in the experience. It's a project that needs room to breathe. The setting is Houston Texas, and the subject...

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2 MSc Scholarships in Medical Statistics

March 10, 2016
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2 MSc Scholarships in Medical Statistics

Our department has just been awarded two NIHR MSc studentships in Medical Statistics. In fact, we've been successful in securing funds for the next 3 years (2 studentships per year). This is kind of cool $-$ we're already increasing the numbe...

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Le Menu Dit : a translation app

March 10, 2016
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Le Menu Dit : a translation app

This post is by Phil Price. “Le Menu Dit” is an iPhone app that some friends and I wrote, which translates restaurant menus from English into French. (The name is French for “The Menu Says.”) The friends are Nathan Addy and another excellent programmer who would like to remain nameless for now. Here’s how the […] The post Le Menu Dit : a translation app appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Bruised and battered, I couldn’t tell what I felt. I was ungeneralizable to myself.

March 9, 2016
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Bruised and battered, I couldn’t tell what I felt.  I was ungeneralizable to myself.

One more rep. The new thing you just have to read, if you’re following the recent back-and-forth on replication in psychology, is this post at Retraction Watch in which Nosek et al. respond to criticisms from Gilbert et al. regarding the famous replication project. Gilbert et al. claimed that many of the replications in the […] The post Bruised and battered, I couldn’t tell what I felt. I was ungeneralizable…

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