Ptolemaic inference

October 24, 2016
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Ptolemaic inference

OK, we’ve been seeing this a lot recently. A psychology study gets published, with a key idea that at first seems wacky but, upon closer reflection, could very well be true! Examples: – That “dentist named Dennis” paper suggesting that people pick where they live and what job to take based on their names. – […] The post Ptolemaic inference appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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And Yet It Moves: Gravitational Waves

October 24, 2016
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And Yet It Moves: Gravitational Waves

"The moment he was set at liberty, he looked up to the sky and down to the ground, and, stamping with his foot, in a contemplative mood, said, Eppur si muove [And yet it moves], meaning the earth."1Giuseppe Baretti, on Galileo GalileiGalileo ...

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And Yet It Moves: Gravitational Waves

October 24, 2016
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And Yet It Moves: Gravitational Waves

"The moment he was set at liberty, he looked up to the sky and down to the ground, and, stamping with his foot, in a contemplative mood, said, Eppur si muove [And yet it moves], meaning the earth."1Giuseppe Baretti, on Galileo GalileiGalileo ...

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And Yet It Moves: Gravitational Waves

October 24, 2016
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And Yet It Moves: Gravitational Waves

"The moment he was set at liberty, he looked up to the sky and down to the ground, and, stamping with his foot, in a contemplative mood, said, Eppur si muove [And yet it moves], meaning the earth."1Giuseppe Baretti, on Galileo GalileiGalileo ...

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Machine Learning vs. Econometrics, IV

October 24, 2016
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Some of my recent posts on this topic emphasized that (1) machine learning (ML) tends to focus on non-causal prediction, whereas econometrics and statistics (E/S) has both non-causal and causal parts, and (2) E/S tends to be more concerned with probabi...

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Denver outspends everyone on this

October 24, 2016
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Denver outspends everyone on this

Someone at the Wall Street Journal noticed that Denver's transit agency has outspent other top transit agencies, after accounting for number of rides -- and by a huge margin. But the accompanying graphic conspires against the journalist. For one thing,...

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Q&A: predictive analytics

October 24, 2016
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Q&A: predictive analytics

A major news outlet interviewed me on predictive analytics. Here were my responses. Data mining is not just for tech companies, in fact it can be especially useful for industries which are not typically thought of to be ‘innovative’ such as...

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Q&A: predictive analytics

October 24, 2016
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Q&A: predictive analytics

A major news outlet interviewed me on predictive analytics. Here were my responses. Data mining is not just for tech companies, in fact it can be especially useful for industries which are not typically thought of to be ‘innovative’ such as agriculture. What are some of the main industries that you think benefit from predictive […]

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Ahh, that’s smooth! Anti-aliasing in SAS statistical graphics

October 24, 2016
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Ahh, that’s smooth! Anti-aliasing in SAS statistical graphics

I've written several articles about scatter plot smoothers: nonparametric regression curves that reveal small- and large-scale features of a response variable as a function of an explanatory variable. However, there is another kind of "smoothness" that you might care about, and that is the apparent smoothness of curves and markers […] The post Ahh, that's smooth! Anti-aliasing in SAS statistical graphics appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Spin

October 24, 2016
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Yesterday all the past. The language of effect size Spreading to Psychology along the sub-fields; the diffusion Of the counting-frame and the quincunx; Yesterday the shadow-reckoning in the ivy climates. Yesterday the assessment of hypotheses by tests, The divination of water; yesterday the invention Of cartwheels and clocks, the power-pose of Horses. Yesterday the bustling […] The post Spin appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Common Speaking Mistakes To Avoid

October 24, 2016
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Common Speaking Mistakes To Avoid

Whenever I go to academic conferences, I have to sit through some terrible talks. It continues to amaze me that so many people make mistakes that are so easy to avoid. Here are a few I noticed just in the last two days. Spend first two minutes apologizing I understand the impulse to apologize. I really do. But […]

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ratio-of-uniforms

October 23, 2016
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ratio-of-uniforms

One approach to random number generation that had always intrigued me is Kinderman and Monahan’s (1977) ratio-of-uniform method. The method is based on the result that the uniform distribution on the set A of (u,v)’s in R⁺xX such that 0≤u²≤ƒ(v/u) induces the distribution with density proportional to ƒ on V/U. Hence the name. The proof […]

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“How One Study Produced a Bunch of Untrue Headlines About Tattoos Strengthening Your Immune System”

October 23, 2016
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“How One Study Produced a Bunch of Untrue Headlines About Tattoos Strengthening Your Immune System”

Jeff points to this excellently skeptical news article by Caroline Weinberg, who writes: A recent study published in the American Journal of Human Biology suggests that people with previous tattoo experience may have a better immune response to new tattoos than those being inked for the first time. That’s the finding if you read the […] The post “How One Study Produced a Bunch of Untrue Headlines About Tattoos Strengthening…

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Q&A time

October 23, 2016
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Q&A time

Someone sent me some questions by email, and I decided to answer some of them here. How important is it that I know and understand the underlying mathematical framework to forecasting methods? I understand conceptually how most of them work, but I fee...

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Q&A time

October 23, 2016
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Q&A time

Someone sent me some questions by email, and I decided to answer some of them here. How important is it that I know and understand the underlying mathematical framework to forecasting methods? I understand conceptually how most of them work, but I feel as if I may benefit from truly understanding the math. The main benefit […]

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A quick look at RStudio’s R notebooks

October 22, 2016
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A quick demo of RStudio’s R Notebooks shown by John Mount (of Win-Vector LLC, a statistics, data science, and algorithms consulting and training firm). (link) It looks like some of the new in-line display behavior is back-ported to R Markdown and some of the difference is the delayed running and different level of interactivity in … Continue reading A quick look at RStudio’s R notebooks

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Data science for executives and managers

October 22, 2016
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Nina Zumel recently announced upcoming speaking appearances. I want to promote the upcoming sessions at ODSC West 2016 (11:15am-1:00pm on Friday November 4th, or 3:00pm-4:30pm on Saturday November 5th) and invite executives, managers, and other data science consumers to attend. We assume most of the Win-Vector blog audience is made of practitioners (who we hope … Continue reading Data science for executives and managers

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Posterior predictive distribution for multiple linear regression

October 22, 2016
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Suppose you've done a (robust) Bayesian multiple linear regression, and now you want the posterior distribution on the predicted value of \(y\) for some probe value of \( \langle x_1,x_2,x_3, ... \rangle \). That is, not the posterior distribution on t...

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LOD MOOC

October 22, 2016
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LOD MOOC

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) are available worldwide and offer tons of topics, also about Linked Open Data (LOD). An easy way to enter the semantic web. Two examples: HPI The Hasso Plattner Institute, Potsdam provides, for some years now, a course in Linked Data Engineering with a certificate. I did it some years ago and … Continue reading LOD MOOC

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Another failed replication of power pose

October 22, 2016
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Another failed replication of power pose

Someone sent me this recent article, “Embodying Power: A Preregistered Replication and Extension of the Power Pose Effect,” by Katie Garrison, David Tang, and Brandon Schmeichel. Unsurprisingly (given that the experiment was preregistered), the authors found no evidence for any effect of power pose. The Garrison et al. paper is reasonable enough, but for my […] The post Another failed replication of power pose appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Tourism forecasting competition data as an R package

October 22, 2016
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Tourism forecasting competition data as an R package

The data used in the tourism forecasting competition, discussed in Athanasopoulos et al (2011), have been made available in the Tcomp package for R. The objects are of the same format as for Mcomp package containing data from the M1 and M3 competitions...

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Tourism forecasting competition data as an R package

October 22, 2016
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Tourism forecasting competition data as an R package

The data used in the tourism forecasting competition, discussed in Athanasopoulos et al (2011), have been made available in the Tcomp package for R. The objects are of the same format as for Mcomp package containing data from the M1 and M3 competitions. Thanks to Peter Ellis for putting the package together. He has also […]

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Why is my cat orange?

October 21, 2016
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Why is my cat orange?

One of the students in my Bayesian statistics class, Mafalda Borges, came up with an excellent new Bayes theorem problem.  Here's my paraphrase:About 3/4 of orange cats are male.  If my cat is orange, what is the probability that his mother w...

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