International Prize in Statistics

November 1, 2016
By
International Prize in Statistics

A few days ago, the inaugural winner of the biennial International Prize in Statistics was announced.The first recipient of the new award is Sir David Cox, whose work is, of course, well known to econometricians.The award was made to Sir David for his ...

Read more »

Rotten all the way through

November 1, 2016
By
Rotten all the way through

In a conversation with a journalist regarding bad research papers, I said, “I think there are journals and years where I would guess more than half the papers have essentially fatal errors.” The journalist asked me where this estimate came from, and I replied: I have no systematic statistics on this. My “more than half” […] The post Rotten all the way through appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

3 secrets to giving a remote lecture!

November 1, 2016
By

Someone writes in: I noticed that you did a remote lecture in Warwick and I—thinking of organizing such a lecture—was wondering about the logistics. (1) What software did you use? Was any special IT required for it to run? (2) Did you feel that it was a positive speaking experience? Were there any challenges, especially […] The post 3 secrets to giving a remote lecture! appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

Read more »

Halloween 2016 count

November 1, 2016
By
Halloween 2016 count

Here’s a graph of the numbers of trick-or-treat-ers we saw this evening, by time. 10 of the 25 kids arrived in one big group. (Compare this to our 2011 experience.)

Read more »

Cute Gibbs sampling for rounded observations

November 1, 2016
By
Cute Gibbs sampling for rounded observations

I was attending a course of Bayesian Statistics where this problem showed up: There is a number of individuals, say 12, who take a pass/fail test 15 times. For each individual we have recorded the number of passes, which can go from 0 to 15. Because of confidentiality issues, we are presented with rounded-to-the-closest-multiple-of-3 data […]

Read more »

Time-Sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences

November 1, 2016
By
Time-Sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences

Jamie Druckman and Jeremy Freese write: We are pleased to announce that Time-Sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences (TESS) was renewed for another round of funding by National Science Foundation. TESS allows researchers to submit proposals for experiments to be conducted on a nationally-representative, probability-based survey research platform. Successful proposals are fielded at no cost […] The post Time-Sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Read more »

The Alien Blaster Problem

October 31, 2016
By
The Alien Blaster Problem

Last week I posted the Alien Blaster Problem:In preparation for an alien invasion, the Earth Defense League has been working on new missiles to shoot down space invaders.  Of course, some missile designs are better than others; let's assume that each design has some probability of hitting an alien ship, x.Based on previous tests, the distribution of x in the population of designs is roughly uniform between 10% and 40%.…

Read more »

Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events

October 31, 2016
By
Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events

Don Harding and Adrian Pagan have a fascinating new book (HP) that just arrived in the snail mail.  Partly HP has a retro feel (think: Bry-Boshan (BB)) and partly it has a futurist feel (think: taking BB to wildly new places).  Notwithstandin...

Read more »

Unintentional parody of Psychological Science-style research redeemed by Dan Kahan insight

October 31, 2016
By
Unintentional parody of Psychological Science-style research redeemed by Dan Kahan insight

Cat-owner Kahan’s no Freud expert but he spied the above piece of work and sent it to me along with the comment: I can pretty much tell (meaning I put odds at 9.7:1; obviously I’ll revise when I read) that this is a disaster b/c it tries to tell me what the inferences are and […] The post Unintentional parody of Psychological Science-style research redeemed by Dan Kahan insight appeared…

Read more »

Counting observations for which two events occur

October 31, 2016
By
Counting observations for which two events occur

Every year near Halloween I write an article in which I demonstrate a simple programming trick that is a real treat to use. This year's trick (which features the CMISS function and the crossproducts matrix in SAS/IML) enables you to count the number of observations that are missing for pairs […] The post Counting observations for which two events occur appeared first on The DO Loop.

Read more »

VIS 2016 – Wednesday, Thursday: Papers and the Death of SciVis

October 31, 2016
By
VIS 2016 – Wednesday, Thursday: Papers and the Death of SciVis

Two more postings about VIS 2016 last week! Wednesday got a lot of us talking, with the Death of SciVis panel. There were also more papers on a variety of topics. InfoVis Applications I missed the first two presentations in this session, unfortunately. I heard good things about PROACT: Iterative Design of a Patient-Centered Visualization for Effective […]

Read more »

ratio-of-uniforms [#2]

October 30, 2016
By
ratio-of-uniforms [#2]

Following my earlier post on Kinderman’s and Monahan’s (1977) ratio-of-uniform method, I must confess I remain quite puzzled by the approach. Or rather by its consequences. When looking at the set A of (u,v)’s in R⁺×X such that 0≤u²≤ƒ(v/u), as discussed in the previous post, it can be represented by its parameterised boundary u(x)=√ƒ(x),v(x)=x√ƒ(x)    x […]

Read more »

The Bayesian approach to ridge regression

October 30, 2016
By
The Bayesian approach to ridge regression

In a previous post, we demonstrated that ridge regression (a form of regularized linear regression that attempts to shrink the beta coefficients toward zero) can be super-effective at combating overfitting and lead to a greatly more generalizable model. This approach… Continue reading →

Read more »

“It’s not reproducible if it only runs on your laptop”: Jon Zelner’s tips for a reproducible workflow in R and Stan

October 30, 2016
By

Jon Zelner writes: Reproducibility is becoming more and more a part of the conversation when it comes to public health and social science research. . . . But comparatively little has been said about another dimension of the reproducibility crisis, which is the difficulty of re-generating already-complete analyses using the exact same input data. But […] The post “It’s not reproducible if it only runs on your laptop”: Jon Zelner’s…

Read more »

Updating fast and slow

October 29, 2016
By
Updating fast and slow

Paul Campos pointed me to this post from a couple of days ago in which he wrote: I think it’s fair to say that right now the consensus among elite observers across the ideological spectrum . . . is that the presidential race is over because Donald Trump has no chance of winning — or […] The post Updating fast and slow appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Read more »

No evidence shark attacks swing elections

October 29, 2016
By
No evidence shark attacks swing elections

Anthony Fowler and Andy Hall write: We reassess Achen and Bartels’ (2002, 2016) prominent claim that shark attacks influence presidential elections, and we find that the evidence is, at best, inconclusive. First, we assemble data on every fatal shark attack in U.S. history and county-level returns from every presidential election between 1872 and 2012, and […] The post No evidence shark attacks swing elections appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Read more »

Conflicts of interest

October 29, 2016
By

Paul Alper writes: The following involves Novartis so it may be of interest to you. This Washington Post article headline says: Extending anti-estrogen therapy to 10 years reduces breast-cancer recurrence, new cancers Nevertheless, However, women who were treated with the drug for a total 10 years didn’t live longer than those who were given a […] The post Conflicts of interest appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

Read more »

“The Warriors suck”: A Bayesian exploration

October 29, 2016
By
“The Warriors suck”:  A Bayesian exploration

A basketball fan of my close acquaintance woke up Wednesday morning and, upon learning the outcome of the first games of the NBA season, announced that “The Warriors suck.” Can we answer this question? To put it more precisely, how much information is supplied by that first-game-of-season blowout? Speaking Bayesianly, who much should we adjust […] The post “The Warriors suck”: A Bayesian exploration appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Read more »

A quick exploration of the ReporteRs package

October 28, 2016
By

The package ReporteRs has been getting some play on the interwebs this week, though it’s actually been around for a while. The nice thing about this package is that it allows writing Word and PowerPoint documents in an OS-independent fashion unlike some earlier packages. It also allows the editing of documents by using bookmarks within […]

Read more »

Happiness of liberals and conservatives in different countries

October 28, 2016
By

Jay Livingston writes: I recall that you have used my post showing that the happiness of conservatives is related to who’s in power. So you might be interested in this multi-nation study showing the same thing: Generally, conservatives are happier than non-conservatives. However, “that is mostly the case in conservative countries. In liberal countries, they […] The post Happiness of liberals and conservatives in different countries appeared first on Statistical…

Read more »

The idol worship of objective data is damaging our discipline

October 28, 2016
By

In class last week, I discussed this New York Times article with the students. One of the claims in the article is that the U.S. News ranking of colleges is under threat by newcomers whose rankings are more relevant because they more directly measure outcomes such as earnings of graduates. This specific claim in the article makes me head hurt: "If nothing else, earnings are objective and, as the database…

Read more »

Not So Standard Deviations Episode 25 – How Exactly Do You Pronounce SQL?

October 28, 2016
By

Hilary and I go through the overflowing mailbag to respond to listener questions! Topics include causal inference in trend modeling, regression model selection, using SQL, and data science certification. If you have questions you’d like us to answer...

Read more »

“Generic and consistent confidence and credible regions”

October 27, 2016
By
“Generic and consistent confidence and credible regions”

Christian Bartels sends along this paper, which begins: A generic, consistent, efficient and exact method is proposed for set selection. The method is generic in that its definition and implementation uses only the likelihood function. The method is consistent in that the same criterion is used to select confidence and credible sets making the two […] The post “Generic and consistent confidence and credible regions” appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe