Exploring the robustness of Bayes Factors: A convenient plotting function

February 26, 2014
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One critique frequently heard about Bayesian statistics is the subjectivity of the assumed prior distribution. If one is cherry-picking a prior, of course the posterior can be tweaked, especially when only few data points are at hand. For example, see ...

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New robust statistical functions in WRS package – Guest post by Rand Wilcox

February 26, 2014
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Today a new version (0.23.1) of the WRS package (Wilcox’ Robust Statistics) has been released. This package is the companion to his rather exhaustive book on robust statistics, “Introduction to Robust Estimation and Hypothesis Testing”...

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Interactive exploration of a prior’s impact

February 26, 2014
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The probably most frequent criticism of Bayesian statistics sounds something like “It’s all subjective – with the ‘right’ prior, you can get any result you want.”. In order to approach this criticism it has been sugg...

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Applied Statistics Lesson of the Day – The Matched-Pair (or Paired) t-Test

Applied Statistics Lesson of the Day – The Matched-Pair (or Paired) t-Test

My last lesson introduced the matched pairs experimental design, which is a special type of the randomized blocked design.  Let’s now talk about how to analyze the data from such a design. Since the experimental units are organized in pairs, the units between pairs (blocks) are not independently assigned.  (The units within each pair are […]

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Nonlinear Time Series just appeared

February 25, 2014
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Nonlinear Time Series just appeared

My friends Randal Douc and Éric Moulines just published this new time series book with David Stoffer. (David also wrote Time Series Analysis and its Applications with Robert Shumway a year ago.) The books reflects well on the research of Randal and Éric over the past decade, namely convergence results on Markov chains for validating […]

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Useful for referring—2-25-2014

February 25, 2014
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Useful for referring—2-25-2014

Interview with Nick Chamandy, statistician at Google You and Your Research +  video Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments: Five Puzzling Outcomes Explained A Survival Guide to Starting and Finishing a PhD Six Rules For Wearing Suits For Beginners Why I Created C++ More advice to scientists on blogging Software engineering practices for graduate students Statistics Matter […]

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Useful for referring—2-25-2014

February 25, 2014
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Useful for referring—2-25-2014

Interview with Nick Chamandy, statistician at Google You and Your Research +  video Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments: Five Puzzling Outcomes Explained A Survival Guide to Starting and Finishing a PhD Six Rules For Wearing Suits For Beginners Why I Created C++ More advice to scientists on blogging Software engineering practices for graduate students Statistics Matter […]

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Mapping All Intercity Bus Routes in the U.S.

February 25, 2014
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Mapping All Intercity Bus Routes in the U.S.

AIBRA, short for American Intercity Bus Riders Association, has recently released a detailed map [kfhgroup.com] containing all the intercity bus lines currently in operation within the U.S. Not surprisingly, the resulting transportation grid correlate...

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Fast matrix computations for functional additive models

February 25, 2014
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Fast matrix computations for functional additive models

I have just arxiv’ed a new manuscript on speeding up computation for functional additive models such as functional ANOVA. A functional additive model is essentially a model says that a = b + c, where a, b and c are functions. It is a useful model when we want to express things like: I have […]

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Basketball Stats: Don’t model the probability of win, model the expected score differential.

February 25, 2014
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Someone who wants to remain anonymous writes: I am working to create a more accurate in-game win probability model for basketball games. My idea is for each timestep in a game (a second, 5 seconds, etc), use the Vegas line, the current score differential, who has the ball, and the number of possessions played already […]The post Basketball Stats: Don’t model the probability of win, model the expected score differential.…

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Knowledge in the chart and knowledge in the head

February 25, 2014
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Knowledge in the chart and knowledge in the head

One of the many insights from Don Norman's great design book is that a user's behavior is affected by "knowledge in the world", and "knowledge in the head." Applied to graphics, this means readers of graphics use both knowledge in...

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Mathematica: Introducing the Wolfram Language

February 25, 2014
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Finally, here it is, check out the video below as Stephen Wolfram showcases the Wolfram language, From my previous post, I said that I used Wolfram Mathematica for about a year before I embrace R. And frankly, I've been in love with Mathematica; it nev...

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Next Kölner R User Meeting: 26 February 2014

February 25, 2014
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Next Kölner R User Meeting: 26 February 2014

The next Cologne R user group meeting is scheduled for tomorrow, 26 February 2014. We are delighted to welcome:Diego de Castillo: R and databasesKim Kuen Tang: Hands on using R and kdb+ togetherFrank Celler: ArangoDB (Lightning Talk)Further details an...

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LaTeX: How to install TeX Live – qtree package in Ubuntu 12.10

February 25, 2014
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LaTeX: How to install TeX Live – qtree package in Ubuntu 12.10

There is a question on TeX - StackExchange that has no direct solution to the installation of the qtree - TeX Live package in Ubuntu. And I want to answer that in this post, then just drop the link of this article to the comment section of the said que...

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Job Trends in the Analytics Market: New, Improved, now Fortified with C, Java, MATLAB, Python, Julia and Many More!

February 25, 2014
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Job Trends in the Analytics Market: New, Improved, now Fortified with C, Java, MATLAB, Python, Julia and Many More!

I’m expanding the coverage of my article, The Popularity of Data Analysis Software. This is the first installment, which includes a new opening and a greatly expanded analysis of the analytics job market. Here it is, from the abstract onward … Continue reading →

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The forecast mean after back-transformation

February 25, 2014
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The forecast mean after back-transformation

Many functions in the forecast package for R will allow a Box-Cox transformation. The models are fitted to the transformed data and the forecasts and prediction intervals are back-transformed. This preserves the coverage of the prediction intervals, and the back-transformed point forecast can be considered the median of the forecast densities (assuming the forecast densities on the transformed scale are symmetric). For many purposes, this is acceptable, but occasionally the…

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Bayesian First Aid: Two Sample t-test

February 24, 2014
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Bayesian First Aid: Two Sample t-test

As spring follows winter once more here down in southern Sweden, the two sample t-test follows the one sample t-test. This is a continuation of the Bayesian First Aid alternative to the one sample t-test where I’ll introduce the two sample alternat...

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Dancing Statistics: Communicating Psychology to the Public through Dance

February 24, 2014
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Dancing Statistics: Communicating Psychology to the Public through Dance

Do you know what correlation, variance, frequency distributions, sampling and standard errors are? If not, you now have to chance to learn each of these statistical concepts via the medium of... modern dance. Initiated by Lucy Irving (Middlesex Unive...

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The Kernel of Truth in Frequentism: The Pros and Cons of this Special Case

February 24, 2014
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The previous three posts demonstrated how frequencies are a special case of more general Bayesian methods. This final post will consider the strengths and weaknesses of this special case by addressing three cons and two pros. Con 1: This special case e...

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“Edlin’s rule” for routinely scaling down published estimates

February 24, 2014
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A few months ago I reacted (see further discussion in comments here) to a recent study on early childhood intervention, in which researchers Paul Gertler, James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto, Arianna Zanolini, Christel Vermeerch, Susan Walker, Susan M. Chang, and Sally Grantham-McGregor estimated that a particular intervention on young children had raised incomes on young adults […]The post “Edlin’s rule” for routinely scaling down published estimates appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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On deck this week

February 24, 2014
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Mon: “Edlin’s rule” for routinely scaling down published estimates Tues: Basketball Stats: Don’t model the probability of win, model the expected score differential Wed: A good comment on one of my papers Thurs: “What Can we Learn from the Many Labs Replication Project?” Fri: God/leaf/tree Sat: “We are moving from an era of private data […]The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Update on Dataviz Workshop 2

February 24, 2014
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Update on Dataviz Workshop 2

The class practised doing critiques on the famous Wind Map by Fernanda Viegas and Martin Wattenberg. Click here for a real-time version of the map. I selected this particular project because it is a heartless person indeed who does not...

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Numbersense and true lies

February 24, 2014
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Numbersense and true lies

Long before I came up with "numbersense," I wrote about "true lies" in data analysis. (link) The nature of data, especially Big (as in multidimensional) Data, is that one can come up with an infinite number of statistical computations, all of which are "true" in the sense that one would obtain such statistics were one to plug the data into textbook formulas. Inevitably, some of these statistics lead to contradictions.…

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