China turns to big data to gauge inflation – China Daily

December 6, 2013
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2013-12-06 13:42China DailyWeb Editor: qindexingShare on sinaweiboShare on twitterShare on facebookMore Sharing ServicesThrough teaming up with high-tech companies, China's National Bureau of Statistics will start using big data technology to improve t...

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Santa Claus, statistics, and understanding uncertainty

December 6, 2013
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Santa Claus, statistics, and understanding uncertainty

As the International Year of Statistics comes to a close, I've been reflecting on the role statistics plays in our modern society. Of course, statistics provides estimates, forecasts, and the like, but to me the great contribution of statistics is that it enables us to deal with uncertainty in a [...]

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Envy the Data Visualisation Centre? Not any more.

December 6, 2013
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Envy the Data Visualisation Centre? Not any more.

If you follow the ONS Data Visualisation Centre you will be amazed by the fireworks of interactive graphics that they …Continue reading →

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Envy the Data Visualisation Centre? Not any more.

December 6, 2013
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Envy the Data Visualisation Centre? Not any more.

If you follow the ONS Data Visualisation Centre you will be amazed by the fireworks of interactive graphics that they …Continue reading →

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Market trend in advanced analytics for SAS, R and Python

December 6, 2013
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Market trend in advanced analytics for SAS, R and Python

Disclaimer: This study is a view on the market trend on demand of advanced analytics software and their adoptions from the job market perspective, and should not be read as a conclusive statement on what is all happening there. The findings should...

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Incidental Parameters Problem with Binary Response Data and Unobserved Individual Effects

December 6, 2013
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Incidental Parameters Problem with Binary Response Data and Unobserved Individual Effects

It is a well known problem that in some models as the number of observations becomes large, econometric estimators fail to converge on consistent estimators.  The leading case of this is when estimating a binary response model with panel data with...

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Stan (quietly) passes 512 people on the users list

December 5, 2013
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Stan is alive and well. We’re up to 523 people on the users list. [We're sure there are many more than 523 actual users, since it's easy to download and use Stan directly without joining the list.] We’re working on a v2.1.0 release now and we hope to release it in within the next couple […]The post Stan (quietly) passes 512 people on the users list appeared first on Statistical…

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NYC crime rates by year/commissioner

December 5, 2013
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NYC crime rates by year/commissioner

NYC mayor-elect Bill de Blasio is expected to name William J. Bratton to lead the NYPD. Bratton has been commissioner before (1994-1996) so I was curious to see the crime rates during his tenure, which was within the period that … Continue reading →

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What predicts whether a school district will participate in a large-scale evaluation?

December 5, 2013
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Liz Stuart writes: I am writing to solicit ideas for how we might measure a particular type of political environment, relevant to school districts’ likelihood of participating in federal evaluations (funded by the US Department of Education) of education programs. This is part of a larger project investigating external validity and the generalizability of results […]The post What predicts whether a school district will participate in a large-scale evaluation? appeared…

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My current R projects at the end of 2013

December 5, 2013
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I have been meaning to write a long post explaining each of the major R projects I am currently working on, but I can't seem to find the time to get to them. Instead, I give you a short summary of a few R projects/experiments/ideas I am kicking around....

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Unobserved Effects With Panel Data

December 5, 2013
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It is common for researchers to be concerned about unobserved effects being correlated with observed explanatory variables.For instance, if we were curious about the effect of meditation on emotional stability we may be concerned that there might be so...

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Averaged Input Assumptions and Momentum

December 5, 2013
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Averaged Input Assumptions and Momentum

Today I want to share another interesting idea contributed by Pierre Chretien. Pierre suggested using Averaged Input Assumptions and Momentum to create reasonably quiet strategy. The averaging techniques are used to avoid over-fitting any particular frequency. To create Averaged Input Assumptions we combine returns over different look-back periods, giving more weight to the recent returns, […]

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Advice for students on the academic job market

December 4, 2013
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Editor's note: This is a slightly modified version of a previous post. Job hunting season is upon us. Openings are already being posted here, here, and here. So you should have your CV, research statement, and web page ready. I highly recommend … Continue reading →

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Tesla fires!

December 4, 2013
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Tesla fires!

Paul Kedrosky writes: Curious if you’ve looked at the current debate about Tesla fires, statistically speaking. Lots of arm-waving about true/sample proportions, sample sizes, normal approximations, etc. Would love to see a blog post if it intrigues you at all. I hadn’t heard about this at all! I mean, sure, I’d heard of Tesla, this […]The post Tesla fires! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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The graphical version of "to be seen"

December 4, 2013
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The graphical version of "to be seen"

In New York, there are many restaurants that serve mediocre food but which people go in to order to be seen. Here is the graphical equivalent, courtesy of Scientific American (link): This is an attractive chart, but from which one...

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Secret Santa: What is the probability that someone pulls her own name from a hat?

December 4, 2013
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Secret Santa: What is the probability that someone pulls her own name from a hat?

Each year my siblings choose names for a Christmas gift exchange. It is not unusual for a sibling to pick her own name, whereupon the name is replaced into the hat and a new name is drawn. In fact, that "glitch" in the drawing process was a motivation for me [...]

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Story time on aspirin

December 4, 2013
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USA Today, who brought us a dubious early signaling system for sudden cardiac arrest in a prior post, also gave us “Story Time!” on aspirin on the same day (link). The article started with the conclusion: “Taking an aspirin before bed may reduce the chance of having a heart attack or stroke in the morning”. What is the data used to support this cause—effect statement? *** The researchers looked at…

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Stephen Senn: Dawid’s Selection Paradox (guest post)

December 4, 2013
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Stephen Senn: Dawid’s Selection Paradox (guest post)

Stephen Senn Head, Methodology and Statistics Group, Competence Center for Methodology and Statistics (CCMS), Luxembourg “Dawid’s Selection Paradox” You can protest, of course, that Dawid’s Selection Paradox is no such thing but then those who believe in the inexorable triumph of logic will deny that anything is a paradox. In a challenging paper published nearly […]

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Sample size and power for rare events

December 3, 2013
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Sample size and power for rare events

We have written a bit on sample size for common events, we have written about rare events, and we have written about frequentist significance testing. We would like to specialize our sample size analysis to rare events (which allows us to derive a somewhat tighter estimate). In web marketing and a lot of other applications […] Related posts: Estimating rates from a single occurrence of a rare event A bit…

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Maximizing Return from Every Item in the Marketing Research Questionnaire

December 3, 2013
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Maximizing Return from Every Item in the Marketing Research Questionnaire

Consumers will not complete long questionnaires, so marketing research must get the most it can from every item.  In this post, we look into the toolbox of R packages and search for statistical models that enable us to learn a great deal about eac...

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On the future of the textbook

December 3, 2013
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The latest issue of Technological Innovations in Statistics Education is focused on the future of the textbook. Editor Rob Gould has put together an interesting list of contributions as well as discussions from the leaders in the field of statistics … Continue reading →

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Guest Post: Risk, Insurance and the Actuary

December 3, 2013
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Guest Post: Risk, Insurance and the Actuary

Risk, Insurance, and the Actuary Risk is an inherent part of our daily life. As a result, most of us, take out insurance policies as a means of protection against scenarios which, were they to occur, may cause hardship whether … Continue reading →

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Objects of the class “Lawrence Summers”: Arne Duncan edition

December 3, 2013
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Objects of the class “Lawrence Summers”:  Arne Duncan edition

We have a new “Objects of the class,” and it’s a good one! Here’s what happened. I came across a thoughtful discussion by Mark Palko of how it was that Secretary of Education Arne Duncan ticked off so many people with his recent remarks about “white suburban moms”: To understand why Duncan hit such a […]The post Objects of the class “Lawrence Summers”: Arne Duncan edition appeared first on Statistical…

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