## The power, and danger, of visualizations

August 7, 2013
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I recently posted about visualizing the voting patterns of senators. In the post, I scraped voting data for each senator on every vote in the 113th Congress from the Senate website, and then assigned a code of 0 for a no vote on a particular issue, 1 for a yes vote, 2 for abstention, and 3 if the senator was not in office at the time of the vote (ie,…

## Alternate ways to simulate multinomial data

August 7, 2013
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My previous post described the multinomial distribution and showed how to generate random data from the multinomial distribution in SAS by using the RANDMULTINOMIAL function in SAS/IML software. The RANDMULTINOMIAL function is simple to use and implements an efficient algorithm called the sequential conditional marginal method (see Gentle (2003), p. [...]

## JSM 2013 – Tuesday

August 7, 2013
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The Joint Statistical Meeting in Montreal has proven to be very good.   Here are a few highlight from Tuesday’s sessions.  There is one major problem that exists and that is there are too many good sessions to attend.  During one time block I had six session that I wanted to go to.  Unfortunately, it […]

## What Means Mean

August 7, 2013
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Data is often reported as a single number. Unemployment rates, housing prices, crime, etc. are all boiled down to single numbers that average over a large population. But averages, or means, hide much of the richness of the underlying data, and without at least a sense of the spread of the data values, are largely meaningless.

## What did Nate Silver just say? Blogging the JSM

August 6, 2013
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Nate Silver gave his ASA Presidential talk to a packed audience (with questions tweeted[i]). Here are some quick thoughts—based on scribbled notes (from last night). Silver gave a list of 10 points that went something like this (turns out there were 11): 1. statistics are not just numbers 2. context is needed to interpret data […]

## Cronbach to the future

August 6, 2013
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One fascinating thing about working in the area of psychological statistics is how hard it is to move people away from reliance on bad, inefficient or otherwise problematic methods. My own view - informed to some extent by the literature, by experience...

## JSM 2013 – Monday

August 6, 2013
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I am currently attending the 2013 Joint Statistical Meeting in Montreal. I will try to share a few of the things that I take away each day. Last night (Monday) I attended the JSM keynote speaker with Nate Silver and it proved to be a very interesting discussion.  Silver is best known for his work […]

August 6, 2013
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The other day, there was a bit of a twitter conversation about qqline in R. It made me think: how exactly is the line produced by qqline chosen? I seemed to recall that the line was through the first and third quartiles. An advantage of R is that you can just type the name of […]

## G8 and Open Data

August 6, 2013
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Open Data is a top priority now: G8 leaders signed the Open Data Charter on 18 June 2013. ‘The Open …Continue reading »

## New words of 1917

August 6, 2013
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I happened to come across a little book, “Current Glossary: Words Coined Since the War.” Here are some of them: as’pi-rin, n. A white compound used as a drug in the cure of headaches and rheumatism. bob’go, n. A kind of antelope in Africa; its meat is good for food. cat’ta-lo, n. A cross between […]The post New words of 1917 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

## Create your own fine print

August 6, 2013
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Note: The winner of the Book Quiz Round 2 was announced on my book blog. Congratulations to the winners. You can get your own copy of Numbersense here. *** A common advice for anyone living in the U.S. is "read...

## Book quiz update, podcast

August 6, 2013
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The second winner of the Book Quiz is Nancy, from Washington DC. Congratulations! Both winners wrote back saying they feel like buying a lottery ticket. The odds of winning that is much lower, be warned. *** Joe Dager, from Business901, and I chatted about Numbersense recently, and the interview will show up soon as a podcast. If you didn't see it last December, he did a very nice interview with…

## Simply Statistics #JSM2013 Picks for Tuesday

August 6, 2013
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It seems like Monday was a big hit at JSM with Nate Silver's talk and all. Rafa estimates that there were about 1 million people there (+/- 1 million). Ramnath Vaidyanathan has a nice summary of the talk and the Q&A … Continue reading →

## Setting axes limits with googleVis

August 6, 2013
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I posted about the various googleVis axis options for base charts, such as line, bar and area charts earlier, but I somehow forgot to mention how to set the axes limits.Unfortunately, there are no arguments such as ylim and xlim. Instead, the Google Ch...

## Random Variables from a non-Parametric distribution know their limits

August 6, 2013
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$Random Variables from a non-Parametric distribution know their limits$

You produce a non-parametric distribution. Then you obtain, say, 10 random variables (RV) from this non-parametric distribution- much the same way as you would obtain random variables from a (parametric) normal distribution with stated mean and variance. But unlike the parametric distribution, where our RVs would occur around the mean (our parameter), RVs from a […]

## Google Developers R Programming Video Lectures

August 5, 2013
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Google Developers recognized that most developers learn R in bits and pieces, which can leave significant knowledge gaps. To help fill these gaps, they created a series of introductory R programming videos. These videos provide a solid foundation for p...

## Calendar-based Sector Strategy

August 5, 2013
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I recently came across the Kaeppel’s Sector Seasonality Strategy which is described in Kaeppel’s Corner: Sector Seasonality and updated in Kaeppel’s Corner: Get Me Back, Clarence. Today I want to show how to back-test the Kaeppel’s Sector Seasonality Strategy using the Systematic Investor Toolbox. Following are the strategy rules: Buy Fidelity Select Technology (FSPTX) at […]

## How Much Should Bale Cost Real?

August 5, 2013
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It looks increasingly likely that Gareth Bale will transfer from Tottenham to Real Madrid for a world record transfer fee. Negotiations are ongoing, with both parties keen to get the best deal possible deal with the transfer fee. Reports speculate that this transfer fee will be anywhere in the very wide range of £80m to […]

## How Much Should Bale Cost Real?

August 5, 2013
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It looks increasingly likely that Gareth Bale will transfer from Tottenham to Real Madrid for a world record transfer fee. Negotiations are ongoing, with both parties keen to get the best deal possible deal with the transfer fee. Reports speculate that this transfer fee will be anywhere in the very wide range of £80m to […]

## Evidence on the impact of sustained use of polynomial regression on causal inference (a claim that coal heating is reducing lifespan by 5 years for half a billion people)

August 5, 2013
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Yu Xie thought I’d have something to say about this recent paper, “Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China’s Huai River policy,” by Yuyu Chen, Avraham Ebenstein, Michael Greenstone, and Hongbin Li, which begins: This paper’s findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that greatly increases total […]The post Evidence on the impact of sustained use of polynomial regression on causal inference…

## Still More on the Strange American Estimator: Indirect Inference, MLE and the Particle Filter

August 5, 2013
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In my last post I praised indirect inference (IE) for its ease-of-use: just simulate the model and fit a simple auxiliary model to the simulated and real-world data, after which evaluation of the objective is immediate. In contrast, likelihood analysi...

## Numbersense Pros: Felix Salmon

August 5, 2013
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An interview with Felix Salmon by Kaiser Fung

## Simply Statistics #JSM2013 Picks for Monday

August 5, 2013
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I'm sadly not able to attend the Joint Statistical Meetings this year (where Nate Silver is the keynote speaker!) in the great city of Montreal. I'm looking forward to checking out the chatter on #JSM2013 but in the meantime, here are … Continue reading →