Academic publishing has always been a slow process. Typically you would submit a paper for publication and then wait a few months to more than a year (statistics journals can be slow!) for a review. Then you'd revise the paper … Continue reading →

Academic publishing has always been a slow process. Typically you would submit a paper for publication and then wait a few months to more than a year (statistics journals can be slow!) for a review. Then you'd revise the paper … Continue reading →

And now here’s something we hope you’ll really like (as Chris Hedges might say). A whole week of posts on statistics! Mon: My answer: Write a little program to simulate it Tues: Average predictive comparisons in R: David Chudzicki writes a package! Wed: Judicious Bayesian Analysis to Get Frequentist Confidence Intervals Thurs: Combining forecasts: Evidence […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

To add to my prior post, having now read the published paper on the effect of DST on heart attacks, I can confirm that I disagree with the way the publicist hired by the journal messaged the research conclusion. And some of the fault lies with the researchers themselves who appear to have encouraged the exaggerated claim. Here is the summary of the research as written up by the researchers…

It’s so simple it feels entirely trivial: bars in a bar chart pointing down instead of up. But the effect can be striking. And it’s not as obvious when to show downward-pointing bars as it might seem. The pure visualization point of view is that bars point up for positive numbers and down for negative […]

I’m tired of the evil undead vampire that is classical statistics. I hope to drive a stake through it’s heart with an example so simple even Philosophers can understand it. I’ve been doing some reliability testing recently using expon...

Pat Lawlor writes: We are writing with a question about model comparison and fitting. We work in a group at Northwestern that does neural data analysis and modeling, and often would like to compare full models (e.g. neurons care about movement and vision) with various partial models (e.g. they only care about movement). We often […] The post Comparing the full model to the partial model appeared first on Statistical…

Andrei Lopatenko writes: The top chart here represents the number of votes per a candidate as a function of the number of total bulletins counted. X is the total percentage of votes counted (5% means 5% of the total number of bulletins is read). Y is the percentage of votes per candidate blue Poroshenko, red […] The post Ukraine election question appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

With the latest version of the hts package for R, it is now possible to specify rather complicated grouping structures relatively easily. All aggregation structures can be represented as hierarchies or as cross-products of hierarchies. For example, a hierarchical time series may be based on geography: country, state, region, store. Often there is also a separate product hierarchy: product groups, product types, packet size. Forecasts of all the different types…

Four score years ago (!) we held the conference “Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: Where Do (Should) They meet?” at the London School of Economics, Center for the Philosophy of Natural and Social Science, CPNSS, where I’m visiting professor [1] Many of the discussions on this blog grew out of contributions from the conference, and conversations […]

Sorry about the title. It was the closest I could come to “Shattered Glass.” The subhead is “Pulitzer winner. Lefty hero. Plagiarist.” Chris Hedges is a reporter who apparently has been very busy for many years, in fact, according to this report by Christopher Ketcham he’s been so busy telling important things to the world […] The post Trimmed Hedges appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

I received the following email from someone who wishes to remain anonymous: I am a longtime reader of your blog and it, along with other factors that I will explain briefly, has motivated to pursue a second masters degree in statistics and machine learning. The problem is, my math isn’t great. I understand statistics and […] The post He’s not so great in math but wants to do statistics and…

My first Piketty Post unabashedly praised Piketty's measurement (if not his theory):"Piketty's book truly shines on the data side. ... Its tables and figures...provide a rich and jaw-dropping image, like a new high-resolution photo of a previously...

Yet again I am amazed by the unscrupulous hubris of the US medical industry. On May 12th I went into a local dermatologist's office in MD to have a wart removed. The procedure was exceedingly simple and took no more than 20 minutes. It involved ...

Lee Sechrest pointed me to this news article by Vitomir Miles Raguz, “Brazil Won’t Win the World Cup. A European team will win again thanks to training and statistical analysis.” Hmmm . . . “statistical analysis.” This Raguz character better coordinate stories with Nate; it seems that the statistical experts are disagreeing . . . […] The post World Cup pseudo-science appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…