The future of academic publishing is here, it just isn’t evenly distributed

June 16, 2014
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Academic publishing has always been a slow process. Typically you would submit a paper for publication and then wait a few months to more than a year (statistics journals can be slow!) for a review. Then you'd revise the paper … Continue reading →

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On deck this week

June 16, 2014
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And now here’s something we hope you’ll really like (as Chris Hedges might say). A whole week of posts on statistics! Mon: My answer: Write a little program to simulate it Tues: Average predictive comparisons in R: David Chudzicki writes a package! Wed: Judicious Bayesian Analysis to Get Frequentist Confidence Intervals Thurs: Combining forecasts: Evidence […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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A great visual of complicated schedules

June 16, 2014
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A great visual of complicated schedules

Reader Joe D. tipped me about a nice visualization project by a pair of grad students at WPI (link). They displayed data about the Boston subway system (i.e. the T). The project has many components, one of which is the...

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What the DST researchers actually found

June 16, 2014
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What the DST researchers actually found

To add to my prior post, having now read the published paper on the effect of DST on heart attacks, I can confirm that I disagree with the way the publicist hired by the journal messaged the research conclusion. And some of the fault lies with the researchers themselves who appear to have encouraged the exaggerated claim. Here is the summary of the research as written up by the researchers…

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Stone flakes II

June 16, 2014
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Stone flakes II

Continuing from last week, the aim is now to classify the stone flakes based on their various properties. Three methods are used. LDA is an obvious standard. A classification tree is both simple and visually appealing. Random forest as a complex method...

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Convenient functions vs. efficient subroutines: Your choice

June 16, 2014
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Convenient functions vs. efficient subroutines: Your choice

I've pointed out in the past that in the SAS/IML language matrices are passed to modules "by reference." This means that large matrices are not copied in and out of modules but are updated "in place." As a result, the SAS/IML language can be very efficient when it computes with […]

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When Bars Point Down

June 16, 2014
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When Bars Point Down

It’s so simple it feels entirely trivial: bars in a bar chart pointing down instead of up. But the effect can be striking. And it’s not as obvious when to show downward-pointing bars as it might seem. The pure visualization point of view is that bars point up for positive numbers and down for negative […]

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Varian on big data

June 15, 2014
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Varian on big data

Last week my research group discussed Hal Varian’s interesting new paper on “Big data: new tricks for econometrics”, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2): 3–28. It’s a nice introduction to trees, bagging and forests, plus a very brief entr...

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Everything you need know about CI’s, p-values, hypothesis testing, and Severity.

June 15, 2014
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I’m tired of the evil undead vampire that is classical statistics. I hope to drive a stake through it’s heart with an example so simple even Philosophers can understand it. I’ve been doing some reliability testing recently using expon...

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Comparing the full model to the partial model

June 15, 2014
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Pat Lawlor writes: We are writing with a question about model comparison and fitting. We work in a group at Northwestern that does neural data analysis and modeling, and often would like to compare full models (e.g. neurons care about movement and vision) with various partial models (e.g. they only care about movement). We often […] The post Comparing the full model to the partial model appeared first on Statistical…

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Ukraine election question

June 15, 2014
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Ukraine election question

Andrei Lopatenko writes: The top chart here represents the number of votes per a candidate as a function of the number of total bulletins counted. X is the total percentage of votes counted (5% means 5% of the total number of bulletins is read). Y is the percentage of votes per candidate blue Poroshenko, red […] The post Ukraine election question appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Specifying complicated groups of time series in hts

June 15, 2014
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Specifying complicated groups of time series in hts

With the latest version of the hts package for R, it is now possible to specify rather complicated grouping structures relatively easily. All aggregation structures can be represented as hierarchies or as cross-products of hierarchies. For example, a hierarchical time series may be based on geography: country, state, region, store. Often there is also a separate product hierarchy: product groups, product types, packet size. Forecasts of all the different types…

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“Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: where should they meet?”

June 14, 2014
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“Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: where should they meet?”

Four score years ago (!) we held the conference “Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: Where Do (Should) They meet?” at the London School of Economics, Center for the Philosophy of Natural and Social Science, CPNSS, where I’m visiting professor [1] Many of the discussions on this blog grew out of contributions from the conference, and conversations […]

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Trimmed Hedges

June 14, 2014
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Sorry about the title. It was the closest I could come to “Shattered Glass.” The subhead is “Pulitzer winner. Lefty hero. Plagiarist.” Chris Hedges is a reporter who apparently has been very busy for many years, in fact, according to this report by Christopher Ketcham he’s been so busy telling important things to the world […] The post Trimmed Hedges appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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He’s not so great in math but wants to do statistics and machine learning

June 14, 2014
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I received the following email from someone who wishes to remain anonymous: I am a longtime reader of your blog and it, along with other factors that I will explain briefly, has motivated to pursue a second masters degree in statistics and machine learning. The problem is, my math isn’t great. I understand statistics and […] The post He’s not so great in math but wants to do statistics and…

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Another 180 on Piketty’s Measurement

June 14, 2014
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My first Piketty Post unabashedly praised Piketty's measurement (if not his theory):"Piketty's book truly shines on the data side. ... Its tables and figures...provide a rich and jaw-dropping image, like a new high-resolution photo of a previously...

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RGolf: NGSL Scrabble

June 14, 2014
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RGolf: NGSL Scrabble

It is last part of RGolf before summer. As R excels in visualization capabilities today the task will be to generate a plot.We will work with NGSL data - a list of 2801 important vocabulary words for students of English as a second ...

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European talks. June-July 2014

June 14, 2014
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European talks. June-July 2014

For the next month I am travelling in Europe and will be giving the following talks. 17 June. Challenges in forecasting peak electricity demand. Energy Forum, Sierre, Valais/Wallis, Switzerland. 20 June. Common functional principal component models for...

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Identifying Pathways in the Consumer Decision Journey: Nonnegative Matrix Factorization

June 13, 2014
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Identifying Pathways in the Consumer Decision Journey: Nonnegative Matrix Factorization

The Internet has freed us from the shackles of the yellow page directory, the trip to the nearby store to learn what is available, and the forced choice among a limited set of alternatives. The consumer is in control of their purchase journey and can t...

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Health Care Costs Gone Wild

June 13, 2014
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Yet again I am amazed by the unscrupulous hubris of the US medical industry. On May 12th I went into a local dermatologist's office in MD to have a wart removed. The procedure was exceedingly simple and took no more than 20 minutes.  It involved ...

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The Oracle (2)

June 13, 2014
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The Oracle (2)

The World Cup is now under way, after an arguably fairly lacklustre performance by the host against a tough (if possibly a bit naive) Croatian team, still resulting in a 3-1 win for Brazil. I'll try and comment on our predictions for the first few...

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An Annotated Online Bioinformatics / Computational Biology Curriculum

June 13, 2014
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An Annotated Online Bioinformatics / Computational Biology Curriculum

Two years ago David Searls published an article in PLoS Comp Bio describing a series of online courses in bioinformatics. Yesterday, the same author published an updated version, "A New Online Computational Biology Curriculum," (PLoS Comput Biol 10(6):...

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World Cup pseudo-science

June 13, 2014
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Lee Sechrest pointed me to this news article by Vitomir Miles Raguz, “Brazil Won’t Win the World Cup. A European team will win again thanks to training and statistical analysis.” Hmmm . . . “statistical analysis.” This Raguz character better coordinate stories with Nate; it seems that the statistical experts are disagreeing . . . […] The post World Cup pseudo-science appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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