New Book: Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and Stan

April 20, 2015
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New Book: Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and Stan

Fränzi and Tobias‘s book is now real: Fränzi Korner-Nievergelt, Tobias Roth, Stefanie von Felten, Jérôme Guélat, Bettina Almasi, and Pius Korner-Nievergelt (2015) Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R, BUGS, and Stan. Academic Press. This is based in part on the in-person tutorials that they and the other authors have been giving […] The post New Book: Bayesian Data Analysis in Ecology Using Linear Models with R,…

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There’s no I in Mutual

April 20, 2015
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There’s no I in Mutual

Today I've received an email from a prospective PhD candidate, who says that he (or she) would like to do his (or her) PhD under my supervision on a topic of mutual interest. Except his (or her) interests are in Physics or Applied Mathematics.I know I'...

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On deck this week

April 20, 2015
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Mon: New book on Bayesian analysis in ecology using Stan Tues: The feather, the bathroom scale, and the kangaroo Wed: Instead of worrying about multiple hypothesis correction, just fit a hierarchical model. Thurs: Political Attitudes in Social Environments Fri: Statistical significance, practical significance, and interactions Sat: Statistical analysis on a dataset that consists of a […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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NYT likes new AA study. Why I am not convinced.

April 20, 2015
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NYT likes new AA study. Why I am not convinced.

[After communicating with Frakt, Humphrey and Dean Eckles, I realize that I was confused about Frakt's description of the Humphrey paper, which does not perform PP analysis. So when reading this post, consider it a discussion of ITT versus PP analysis. I will post about Humphrey's methodology separately.] The New York Times plugged a study of the effectiveness of Alcoholics Anonymous (AA) (link). The author (Austin Frakt) used this occasion…

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Create a waterfall plot in SAS

April 20, 2015
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Create a waterfall plot in SAS

In clinical trials, a waterfall plot is often used to indicate how patients in the study responded to treatment. In oncology trials, the response variable might be the percent change in the size of a tumor from the individual's baseline value at the start of the trial. The percent change […] The post Create a waterfall plot in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Paper: ISOTYPE Visualization – Working Memory, Performance, and Engagement with Pictographs

April 20, 2015
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Paper: ISOTYPE Visualization – Working Memory, Performance, and Engagement with Pictographs

Unit charts are not common in visualization, and they are often considered a bad idea. The same is true for using shapes other than rectangles. Neither is based on much actual research, however. In a new paper, we look at the specific example of ISOTYPE-style charts – and find them to be quite effective. I have written about ISOTYPE … Continue reading Paper: ISOTYPE Visualization – Working Memory, Performance, and Engagement with Pictographs

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Reading fixed width formats in the Hadleyverse

April 19, 2015
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Reading fixed width formats in the Hadleyverse

This is an update to a previous post on reading fixed width formats in R. A new addition to the Hadleyverse is the package readr, which includes a function read_fwf to read fixed width format files. I’ll compare the LaF approach to the readr approach using the same dataset as before. The variable wt is […]

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PK analysis: Theoph again

April 19, 2015
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PK analysis: Theoph again

This week I wanted to repeat the Theoph PK analysis of two weeks ago in Stan. It also suddenly dawned on me. For a non-linear model in classical statistics we think it normal to provide good initializations. In contrast, for those MCMC samples I rememb...

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Go to PredictWise for forecast probabilities of events in the news

April 19, 2015
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Go to PredictWise for forecast probabilities of events in the news

I like it. Clear, transparent, no mumbo jumbo about their secret sauce. But . . . what’s with the hyper-precision: C’mon. “27.4%”? Who are you kidding?? (See here for explication of this point.) The post Go to PredictWise ...

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Diederik Stapel in the news, again

April 19, 2015
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Bikes . . . have “become the most common mode of transportation for criminals.” OK, that’s just ethnic profiling of Dutch people. I think they’re just gonna put the whole country on lockdown. The post Diederik Stapel in the news, again...

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Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen

April 18, 2015
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Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen

“Tests of Statistical Hypotheses and Their Use in Studies of Natural Phenomena” by Jerzy Neyman ABSTRACT. Contrary to ideas suggested by the title of the conference at which the present paper was presented, the author is not aware of a conceptual difference between a “test of a statistical hypothesis” and a “test of significance” and uses […]

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How do data and experiments fit into a scientific research program?

April 18, 2015
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I was talking with someone today about various “dead on arrival” research programs we’ve been discussing here for the past few years: I’m talking about topics such beauty and sex ratios of children, or ovulation and voting, or ESP—all of which possibly represent real phenomena and could possibly be studied in a productive way, just […] The post How do data and experiments fit into a scientific research program? appeared…

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The Non-parametric Bootstrap as a Bayesian Model

April 17, 2015
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The Non-parametric Bootstrap as a Bayesian Model

The non-parametric bootstrap was my first love. I was lost in a muddy swamp of zs, ts and ps when I first saw her. Conceptually beautiful, simple to implement, easy to understand (I thought back then, at least). And when she whispered in my ear, “I...

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It’s a Batsman’s World (Cup)

April 17, 2015
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It’s a Batsman’s World (Cup)

The 2015 Cricket World Cup rewrote the record books in dramatic fashion. Amidst the usual insanity that surrounds this event, there were some amazingly good - and bad - performances. Batting-wise, some of the previous records were smashed int...

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Grades of evidence – A cheat sheet

April 17, 2015
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There are at least three traditions in statistics which work with a kind of likelihood ratios (LRs): the “Bayes factor camp”, the “AIC camp”, and the “likehood camp”. In my experience, unfortunately most people do no...

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Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality

April 17, 2015
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I sent my post about the political implication of behavioral economics, embodied cognition, etc., to Gerd Gigerenzer, who commented as follows: The “half-empty” versus “half-full” explanation of the differences between Kahneman and us misses the essential point: the difference is about the nature of the glass of rationality, not the level of the water. For […] The post Gigerenzer on logical rationality vs. ecological rationality appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Stata goes Bayesian

April 17, 2015
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The other day, my colleague Gareth pointed out a very interesting piece of news. The new version of Stata is just out. Now, I'm not a super-Stata user (although I think it's a good package), but the interesting news is that they have now developed a sp...

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The many faces of the placebo response

April 17, 2015
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The many faces of the placebo response

This week, a study was published that claimed that the placebo response is mediated by genetics. Though I need to dig a little deeper and figure out exactly what this article is saying, I do think we need to take a step back and remember what can const...

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Guidelines for reporting confidence intervals

April 17, 2015
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I'm working on a manuscript on confidence intervals, and I thought I'd share a draft section on the reporting of confidence intervals. The paper has several demonstrations of how CIs may, or may not, offer quality inferences, and how they can differ ma...

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My Paper With Al Gol

April 16, 2015
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My Paper With Al Gol

My apologies for the broken link to my paper co-authored with Al Gol that was listed in the "April Reading" post on 1 April.This has now been fixed.© 2015, David E. Giles

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A Lot moRe Than Fifty Shades of Gray

April 16, 2015
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R has 108 shades of grey with an 'e', and 116 shades of gray with an 'a'. Fully 34% of named colors are gray/grey of some kind. So when can we expect R, the movie? # Blog appendix > temp = colors() > length(temp) #657 [1] 657 > > temp2 ...

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Perhaps the most contextless email I’ve ever received

April 16, 2015
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Date: February 3, 2015 at 12:55:59 PM EST Subject: Sample Stats Question From: ** Hello, I hope all is well and trust that you are having a great day so far. I hate to bother you but I have a stats question that I need help with: How can you tell which group has the […] The post Perhaps the most contextless email I’ve ever received appeared first on Statistical…

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Statistics journals network

April 16, 2015
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Statistics journals network

Xian blogged recently on the incoming RSS read paper: Statistical Modelling of Citation Exchange Between Statistics Journals, by Cristiano Varin, Manuela Cattelan and David Firth. Following the last JRSS B read paper by one of us! The data that are used in the paper (and can be downloaded here) are quite fascinating for us, academics fascinated by academic rankings, […]

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