Who was Shirley Almon?

March 26, 2016
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Who was Shirley Almon?

How often have you said to yourself, "I wonder what happened to Jane X"? (Substitute any person's name you wish.)Personally, I've noticed a positive correlation between my age and the frequency of occurrence of this event, but we all know that correlat...

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A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics

March 26, 2016
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A. Spanos: Talking back to the critics using error statistics

Given all the recent attention given to kvetching about significance tests, it’s an apt time to reblog Aris Spanos’ overview of the error statistician talking back to the critics [1]. A related paper for your Saturday night reading is Mayo and Spanos (2011).[2] It mixes the error statistical philosophy of science with its philosophy of statistics, introduces severity, […]

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He does mathematical modeling and is asking for career advice: wants to move from biology to social science

March 26, 2016
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Rick Desper writes: I face some tough career choices. I have a background in mathematical modeling (got my Ph.D. in math from Rutgers back in the late ’90s) and spent several years working in the field of bioinformatics/computational biology (its name varies from place to place). I’ve worked on problems in modeling cancer progression and […] The post He does mathematical modeling and is asking for career advice: wants to…

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Choice Modeling with Features Defined by Consumers and Not Researchers

March 26, 2016
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Choice Modeling with Features Defined by Consumers and Not Researchers

Choice modeling begins with a researcher "deciding on what attributes or levels fully describe the good or service." This is consistent with the early neural networks in which features were precoded outside of the learning model. That is, choice modeli...

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Not So Standard Deviations Episode 12 – The New Bayesian vs. Frequentist

March 26, 2016
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In this episode, Hilary and I discuss the new direction for the journal Biostatistics, the recent fracas over ggplot2 and base graphics in R, and whether collecting more data is always better than collecting less (fewer?) data. Also, Hilary and Roger r...

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MIDAS Regression is Now in EViews

March 25, 2016
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MIDAS Regression is Now in EViews

The acronym, "MIDAS", stands for several things. In the econometrics literature it refers to "Mixed-Data Sampling" regression analysis. The term was coined by Eric Ghysels a few years ago in relation to some of the novel work that he, his students, and...

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Data-dependent prior as an approximation to hierarchical model

March 25, 2016
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Andy Solow writes: I have a question about Bayesian statistics. Why is it wrong to use the same data to formulate the prior and to update it to the posterior? I am having a hard time coming up with – or finding in the literature – a formal reason. I asked him to elaborate and […] The post Data-dependent prior as an approximation to hierarchical model appeared first on Statistical…

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High school rankings of top NCAA wrestlers

March 25, 2016
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High school rankings of top NCAA wrestlers

Last weekend was the 2016 NCAA Division I wrestling tournament. In collegiate wrestling there are ten weight classes. The top eight wrestlers in each weight class are awarded the title "All-American" to acknowledge that they are the best wrestlers in the country. I saw a blog post on the InterMat […] The post High school rankings of top NCAA wrestlers appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Le Monde puzzle [#954]

March 24, 2016
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Le Monde puzzle [#954]

A square Le Monde mathematical puzzle: Given a triplet (a,b,c) of integers, with a<b<c, it satisfies the S property when a+b, a+c, b+c, a+b+c are perfect squares such that a+c, b+c, and a+b+c are consecutive squares. For a given a, is it always possible to find a pair (b,c) such (a,b,c) satisfies S? Can you […]

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Radial Graphs for Time Series

March 24, 2016
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Radial Graphs for Time Series

On How to: Weather Radials, there was a nice visualisation of temperatures. Since I am too old fashioned for ggplot2, I wanted to reproduce a similar graph with the old plot style. Assume that daily temperature is in a vector X (e.g. temperature in Montréal, QC, in 2009). To get a radial plot, use > n=length(X) > theta=seq(0,1-1/n,length=n)*2*pi > r=30+X > plot(r*cos(pi/2-theta),r*sin(pi/2-theta),type="l",xlab="",ylab="",axes=FALSE) > for(t in 1:n){ + if(X[t]>0) CL=rgb(0,0,1,.4) +…

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Multilevel regression

March 24, 2016
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Mike Hughes writes: I have been looking a your blog entries from about 8 years ago in which you comment on the number of groups that is appropriate in multilevel regression. I have a research problem in which I have 6 groups and would like to use multilevel regression. Here is the situation. I have […] The post Multilevel regression appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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The future of biostatistics

March 24, 2016
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Starting in January my colleague Dimitris Rizopoulos and I took over as co-editors of the journal Biostatistics. We are pretty fired up to try some new things with the journal and to make sure that the most important advances in statistical methodology...

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Upcoming Win-Vector LLC appearances

March 23, 2016
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Upcoming Win-Vector LLC appearances

Win-Vector LLC will be presenting on statistically validating models using R and data science at: Strata+Hadoop World “R Day” Tutorial 9:00am–5:00pm Tuesday, March 29 2016, San Jose, California. ODSC San Francisco Meetup, 6:30pm-9:00pm Thursday, March 31, 2016, San Francisco, California. We will share code and examples. Registration required (and Strata is a paid conference). Please … Continue reading Upcoming Win-Vector LLC appearances

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In defense of endless arguments

March 23, 2016
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A couple months ago (that is, yesterday; remember our 2-month delay) some commenters expressed exhaustion and irritation at the Kahneman-Gigerenzer catfight, or more generally the endless debate between those who emphasize irrationality in human decision making and those who emphasize the adaptive and functional qualities of our shortcuts. I would like to respond to this […] The post In defense of endless arguments appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Sitting still against the myth that sitting kills

March 23, 2016
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The fad of standing while working may die hard but science is catching up to it. The idea that standing at work will make one healthier has always been a tough one to believe. It requires a series of premises: Using a standing desk increases the amount of standing Standing longer improves one's health The health improvement is measurable using a well-defined metric The incremental standing is of sufficient amount…

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Plotting overlapping prediction intervals

Plotting overlapping prediction intervals

I often see figures with two sets of prediction intervals plotted on the same graph using different line types to distinguish them. The results are almost always unreadable. A better way to do this is to use semi-transparent shaded regions. Here is an ...

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Nonparametric regression for binary response data in SAS

March 23, 2016
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Nonparametric regression for binary response data in SAS

My previous blog post shows how to use PROC LOGISTIC and spline effects to predict the probability that an NBA player scores from various locations on a court. The LOGISTIC procedure fits parametric models, which means that the procedure estimates parameters for every explanatory effect in the model. Spline bases […] The post Nonparametric regression for binary response data in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Will. Not. Rise. To. Bait.

March 23, 2016
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Someone sends me an email, “I don’t know what to do with this so I thought I would send it to you,” with a link to a university press release about a recently published research paper, full of silly statistical errors and signifying nothing. I replied: Can’t you just ignore this? Why give it any […] The post Will. Not. Rise. To. Bait. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Thinking about this beautiful text sentiment visualizer yields a surprising insight about statistical graphics

March 22, 2016
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Thinking about this beautiful text sentiment visualizer yields a surprising insight about statistical graphics

Lucas Estevem set up this website in d3 as his final project in our statistical communication and graphics class this spring. Copy any text into the window, push the button, and you get this clean and attractive display showing the estimated positivity or negativity of each sentence. The length of each bar is some continuously-scaled […] The post Thinking about this beautiful text sentiment visualizer yields a surprising insight about…

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On the Uncertainty of the Bayesian Estimator

March 22, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: A failed attempt at a dialogue, combining the philosophical sophistication and easy approachability of statistical theory with the mathematical precision and practical application of epistemology, dragged out for 2500+ w...

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All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4.5 years on

March 22, 2016
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All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4.5 years on

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (4.5 years) By: D. G. Mayo [i] Dear Reader: It’s hard to believe I’ve been blogging for 4 and a half  years (since Sept. 3, 2011)! A big celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room as I type this. Please peruse the offerings below, and take advantage of some of the […]

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Understanding Statistical Models Through the Datasets They Seek to Explain: Choice Modeling vs. Neural Networks

March 21, 2016
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Understanding Statistical Models Through the Datasets They Seek to Explain: Choice Modeling vs. Neural Networks

R may be the lingua franca, yet many of the packages within the R library seem to be written in different languages. We can follow the R code because we know how to program but still feel that we have missed something in the translation.R provides an o...

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Noise noise noise noise noise

March 21, 2016
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Noise noise noise noise noise

An intersting issue came up in comments to yesterday’s post. The story began with this query from David Shor: Suppose you’re conducting an experiment on the effectiveness of a pain medication, but in the post survey, measure a large number of indicators of well being (Sleep quality, self reported pain, ability to get tasks done, […] The post Noise noise noise noise noise appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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