“17 Baby Names You Didn’t Know Were Totally Made Up”

July 19, 2015
By

From Laura Wattenberg: Want to drive the baby-naming public up the wall? Tell them you’re naming your daughter Renesmee. Author Stephenie Meyer invented the name for the half-vampire child in her wildly popular Twilight series. In the story it’s simply an homage to the child’s two grandmothers, Renee and Esmé. To the traditional-minded, though, Renesmee […] The post “17 Baby Names You Didn’t Know Were Totally Made Up” appeared first…

Read more »

Predicting Titanic deaths on Kaggle

July 19, 2015
By
Predicting Titanic deaths on Kaggle

Kaggle has a competition to predict who will die on the famous Titanic 'Machine Learning from Disaster''. It is placed as knowledge competition. Just up there to learn. I am late to the party, it has been been for 1 1/2 year, to end by end 2015. It is ...

Read more »

Lauryn’s back!

July 19, 2015
By

Really, no snark here. She’s got some excellent tracks on the new Nina Simone tribute album. The best part’s the sample from the classic Nina song. But that’s often the case. They wouldn’t sample something if it was no good. P.S. Let me clarify: I prefer Lauryn’s version to Nina’s original. The best parts of […] The post Lauryn’s back! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Read more »

Annals of Spam

July 18, 2015
By

I received the following email with subject line, “Andrew, just finished ‘Foreign language skills …'”: Andrew, Just finished http://andrewgelman.com/2010/12/24/foreign_languag/ This leads to the silliness of considering foreign language skills as a purely positional good or as a method for selecting students, while forgetting the direct benefits of being able to communicate in various ways with […] The post Annals of Spam appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

Read more »

The mathematics of love

July 17, 2015
By

I can't remember how I came across this (I think I saw an article about it on Metro or something), but I got intrigued by Hannah Fry's work on "The mathematics of love". So I bought the book and read it $-$ it's a fairly easy read, so I got throug...

Read more »

The statistics department Moneyball opportunity

July 17, 2015
By
The statistics department Moneyball opportunity

Moneyball is a book and a movie about Billy Bean. It makes statisticians look awesome and I loved the movie. I loved it so much I’m putting the movie trailer right here: The basic idea behind Moneyball was that the Oakland Athletics were able to build a very successful baseball team on a tight budget by valuing

Read more »

Measurement is part of design

July 17, 2015
By

The other day, in the context of a discussion of an article from 1972, I remarked that the great statistician William Cochran, when writing on observational studies, wrote almost nothing about causality, nor did he mention selection or meta-analysis. It was interesting that these topics, which are central to any modern discussion of observational studies, […] The post Measurement is part of design appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

Incomprehensible, and even insidious

July 17, 2015
By
Incomprehensible, and even insidious

A reader Alex V. nominated this chart as one of the most incomprehensible ever: This comes from the Annual Report 2014 of Allison Transmission. I applaud the fact that they obviously spent time making the charts. This is not something...

Read more »

Visualizing the distribution of ACT scores

July 17, 2015
By
Visualizing the distribution of ACT scores

My son is in high school and plans to take the ACT, a standardized test to assess college aptitude and readiness. My wife asked, "What is a good score for the ACT?" I didn't know, but I did a quick internet search and discovered a tabulation of scores for the […] The post Visualizing the distribution of ACT scores appeared first on The DO Loop.

Read more »

Prior exposure workshops 3 and 4 (Bayesian data analysis for social scientists)

July 17, 2015
By
Prior exposure workshops 3 and 4 (Bayesian data analysis for social scientists)

Booking is now open for workshops three and four of our Prior Exposure Bayesian data analysis training (all taking place in Nottingham). The dates are 22 and 23 September 2015.These follow on from the first two workshops but if you have some training i...

Read more »

“Statistical Significance” According to the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services (ii)

July 17, 2015
By
“Statistical Significance” According to the U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services (ii)

Someone linked this to me on Twitter. I thought it was a home blog at first. Surely the U.S. Dept of Health and Human Services can give a better definition than this. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Effective Health Care Program Glossary of Terms We know that many of the concepts used on this […]

Read more »

Stan is Turing complete

July 17, 2015
By

Stan is Turing complete. The post Stan is Turing complete appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Read more »

Questions About the Size and Power of a Test

July 16, 2015
By
Questions About the Size and Power of a Test

Osman, a reader of this blog, sent a comment in relation to my recent post on the effects of temporal aggregation on t-tests, and the like. Rather than just bury it, with a short response, in the "Comments" section of that post, I thought I'd give it p...

Read more »

New papers on LOO/WAIC and Stan

July 16, 2015
By
New papers on LOO/WAIC and Stan

Aki, Jonah, and I have released the much-discussed paper on LOO and WAIC in Stan: Efficient implementation of leave-one-out cross-validation and WAIC for evaluating fitted Bayesian models. We (that is, Aki) now recommend LOO rather than WAIC, especially now that we have an R function to quickly compute LOO using Pareto smoothed importance sampling. In […] The post New papers on LOO/WAIC and Stan appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Read more »

Our short course

July 16, 2015
By

We've opened officially registration for our short course on Bayesian methods in health economics (this is a link to last year's edition, with a little more information than the official webpage for this year's course). When we decided to do this, we a...

Read more »

Murphy diagrams in R

July 16, 2015
By
Murphy diagrams in R

At the recent International Symposium on Forecasting, held in Riverside, California, Tillman Gneiting gave a great talk on “Evaluating forecasts: why proper scoring rules and consistent scoring functions matter”. It will be the subject of an IJF invited paper in due course. One of the things he talked about was the “Murphy diagram” for comparing forecasts, […]

Read more »

Hello world!

July 16, 2015
By

Welcome to WordPress. This is your first post. Edit or delete it, then start blogging!

Read more »

Psych dept: “We are especially interested in candidates whose research program contributes to the development of new quantitative methods”

July 16, 2015
By

This is cool. The #1 psychology department in the world is looking for a quantitative researcher: The Department of Psychology at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, invites applications for a tenure-track faculty position. The expected start date is September 1, 2016. The primary criterion for appointment is excellence in research and teaching. We are […] The post Psych dept: “We are especially interested in candidates whose research program contributes…

Read more »

Working with Sessionized Data 2: Variable Selection

July 15, 2015
By
Working with Sessionized Data 2:  Variable Selection

In our previous post in this series, we introduced sessionization, or converting log data into a form that’s suitable for analysis. We looked at basic considerations, like dealing with time, choosing an appropriate dataset for training models, and choosing appropriate (and achievable) business goals. In that previous example, we sessionized the data by considering all … Continue reading Working with Sessionized Data 2: Variable Selection →

Read more »

Seeing Data as the Product of Underlying Structural Forms

July 15, 2015
By
Seeing Data as the Product of Underlying Structural Forms

Matrix factorization follows from the realization that nothing forces us to accept the data as given. We start with objects placed in rows and record observations on those objects arrayed along the top in columns. Neither the objects nor the measuremen...

Read more »

Prior information, not prior belief

July 15, 2015
By

The prior distribution p(theta) in a Bayesian analysis is often presented as a researcher’s beliefs about theta. I prefer to think of p(theta) as an expression of information about theta. Consider this sort of question that a classically-trained statistician asked me the other day: If two Bayesians are given the same data, they will come […] The post Prior information, not prior belief appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

The good, the bad and the ugly

July 15, 2015
By
The good, the bad and the ugly

This is me kind of whining $-$ although I do have some positive (and I think I'm right in whining).First off: chapeau to the iHEA local organisers at Bocconi University in Milan! I think they've done an incredible job $-$ I think iHEA staff do help and...

Read more »

Maps and legends

July 15, 2015
By
Maps and legends

This chart, which I found flipping through Stern magazine in Germany, accomplishes one important goal. It makes me stop flipping, and look. The chart presents a point of view that is refreshing. The Airbus A320 is a true collaborative effort....

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe