One quick tip for building trust in missing-data imputations?

January 22, 2016
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Peter Liberman writes: I’m working on a paper that, in the absence of a single survey that measured the required combination of variables, analyzes data collected by separate, uncoordinated Knowledge Networks surveys in 2003. My co-author (a social psychologist who commissioned one of the surveys) and I obtained from KN unique id numbers for all […] The post One quick tip for building trust in missing-data imputations? appeared first on…

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Modelling With the Generalized Hermite Distribution

January 22, 2016
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Modelling With the Generalized Hermite Distribution

"Count" data occur frequently in economics. These are simply data where the observations are integer-valued - usually 0, 1, 2, ....... . However, the range of values may be truncated (e.g., 1, 2, 3, ....).To model data of this form we typically resort ...

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Kéry and Schaub’s Bayesian Population Analysis Translated to Stan

January 21, 2016
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Kéry and Schaub’s Bayesian Population Analysis Translated to Stan

Hiroki ITÔ (pictured) has done everyone a service in translating to Stan the example models [update: only chapters 3–9 so far, not the whole book; the rest are in the works] from Marc Kéry and Michael Schaub (2012) Bayesian Population Analysis using WinBUGS: A Hierarchical Perspective. Academic Press. You can find the code in our […] The post Kéry and Schaub’s Bayesian Population Analysis Translated to Stan appeared first on…

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Parallel BLAS in R

January 21, 2016
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I'm working on a new chapter for my R Programming book and the topic is parallel computation. So, I was happy to see this tweet from David Robinson (@drob) yesterday: How fast is this #rstats code? x <- replicate(5e3, rnorm(5e3)) x %*% t(x) For me, w/Microsoft R Open, 2.5sec. Wow. https://t.co/0SbijNxxVa — David Robinson (@drob)

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Optimism with Data

January 21, 2016
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Optimism with Data

What will our future be like? Is there no or some hope that things evolve in a good direction? Will we make progress? Data play a crucial role in answering these questions. Steven Pinker (Harvard University, Department of Psychology) in his answer to the EDGE question of 2016 considers that Quantifying Human Progress is the most interesting recent (scientific) news: ‘But … Continue reading Optimism with Data

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If you’re using Stata and you want to do Bayes, you should be using StataStan

January 21, 2016
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If you’re using Stata and you want to do Bayes, you should be using StataStan

Robert Grant, Daniel Furr, Bob Carpenter, and I write: Stata users have access to two easy-to-use implementations of Bayesian inference: Stata’s native bayesmh function and StataStan, which calls the general Bayesian engine Stan. We compare these on two models that are important for education research: the Rasch model and the hierarchical Rasch model. Stan (as […] The post If you’re using Stata and you want to do Bayes, you should…

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Irritating pseudo-populism, backed up by false statistics and implausible speculations

January 21, 2016
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I was preparing my lecture for tomorrow and happened to come across this post from five years ago. And now I’m irritated by Matt Ridley all over again! I wonder if he’s still bashing “rich whites” and driving that 1975 Gremlin...

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Rogue sociologist can’t stop roguin’

January 20, 2016
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Mark Palko points me to two posts by Paul Campos (here and here) on this fascinating train wreck of a story. What happens next? It was ok that George Orwell and A. J. Liebling and David Sedaris made stuff up because they’re such good writers. And journalists make up quotes all the time. But who’s […] The post Rogue sociologist can’t stop roguin’ appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Win-Vector data science mailing list (and a give-away!)

January 20, 2016
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Win-Vector LLC is starting a data science mailing list that we would like you to sign up for. It is going to be a (deliberately infrequent) set of updates including Win-Vector LLC notices, upcoming speaking events, and data science products. To kick this off we will be awarding 5 free permanent subscriptions to our video … Continue reading Win-Vector data science mailing list (and a give-away!)

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Prepping Data for Analysis using R

January 20, 2016
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Prepping Data for Analysis using R

Nina and I are proud to share our lecture: “Prepping Data for Analysis using R” from ODSC West 2015. Nina Zumel and John Mount ODSC WEST 2015 It is about 90 minutes, and covers a lot of the theory behind the vtreat data preparation library. We also have a Github repository including all the lecture … Continue reading Prepping Data for Analysis using R

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Jim Albert’s Baseball Blog

January 20, 2016
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Jim Albert’s Baseball Blog

Jim Albert has a baseball blog: Baseball with R I sent a link internally to people I knew were into baseball, to which Andrew replied, “I agree that it’s cool that he doesn’t just talk, he has code.” (No kidding—the latest post as of writing this was on an R package to compute value above […] The post Jim Albert’s Baseball Blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Time-Varying Dynamic Factor Loadings

January 20, 2016
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Check out Mikkelsen et al. (2015).  I've always wanted to try high-dimensional dynamic factor models (DFM's) with time-varying loadings as an approach to network connectedness measurement (e.g., increasing connectedness would correspond to increas...

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My talk Fri 1pm at the University of Chicago

January 20, 2016
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It’s the Data Science and Public Policy colloquium, and they asked me to give my talk, Little Data: How Traditional Statistical Ideas Remain Relevant in a Big-Data World. Here’s the abstract: “Big Data” is more than a slogan; it is our modern world in which we learn by combining information from diverse sources of varying […] The post My talk Fri 1pm at the University of Chicago appeared first on…

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Banking to 45 degrees: Aspect ratios for time series plots

January 20, 2016
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Banking to 45 degrees: Aspect ratios for time series plots

In SAS, the aspect ratio of a graph is the physical height of the graph divided by the physical width. Recently I demonstrated how to set the aspect ratio of graphs in SAS by using the ASPECT= option in PROC SGPLOT or by using the OVERLAYEQUATED statement in the Graph […] The post Banking to 45 degrees: Aspect ratios for time series plots appeared first on The DO Loop.

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ACEMS Business Analytics Prize 2016

January 20, 2016
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ACEMS Business Analytics Prize 2016

We have established a new annual prize for research students at Monash University in the general area of business analytics, funded by the Australian Centre of Excellence in Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS). The rules of the award are lis...

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Who are Turkopticon’s Top Contributors?

January 19, 2016
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Who are Turkopticon’s Top Contributors?

In my most recent post "Turkopticon: Defender of Amazon's Anonymous Workforce" I introduced Turkopticon, the social art project designed to provide basic tools for Amazon's massive Mechanical TURK workforce to share information about employers (request...

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New digital feature editorship at the Psychonomic Society

January 19, 2016
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As of January 1, 2016, I am the new methods editor for the Psychonomic Society digital features. Steve Lewandowsky has written an introductory post with a bit of background, and my first post -- about Arsenault and Buchsbaum's recent article in Psychon...

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Stan Talk in NYC: Macroeconomic Forecasting using Analogy Weighting

January 19, 2016
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This post is by Eric. The next Stan meetup is coming up in February. It will be hosted by the New York Bayesian Data Analysis Meetup group and International Securities Exchange. The BDA group was formerly called Stan Users – NYC. We will still be focusing on Stan, but we would also like to open it up […] The post Stan Talk in NYC: Macroeconomic Forecasting using Analogy Weighting appeared first on…

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The failure to replicate scientific findings

January 19, 2016
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Andrew Gelman and I have published a piece in Slate, discussing the failure to replicate scientific findings, using the recent example of the so-called power pose. The idea of the "power pose" is that people develop psychological and hormonal changes by making this "power pose" before walking into business meetings, whereupon these changes make them more powerful. As you often read here and at Gelman's blog, the fact that someone…

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Middle-aged white death trends update: It’s all about women in the south

January 19, 2016
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Middle-aged white death trends update:  It’s all about women in the south

Jonathan Auerbach and I wrote up some of the age-adjustment stuff we discussed on this blog a couple months ago. Here’s our article, a shorter version of which will appear as a letter in PPNAS. And here’s the new analysis we did showing age-adjusted death rates for 45-54-year-old non-Hispanic white men and women: Wow!! Remember […] The post Middle-aged white death trends update: It’s all about women in the south…

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Formatting table output in R

January 19, 2016
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Formatting table output in R

Formatting data for output in a table can be a bit of a pain in R. The package formattable by Kun Ren and Kenton Russell provides some intuitive functions to create good looking tables for the R console or HTML quickly. The package home page demonstrat...

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My namesake doesn’t seem to understand the principles of decision analysis

January 18, 2016
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My namesake doesn’t seem to understand the principles of decision analysis

It says “Never miss another deadline.” But if you really could never miss your deadlines, you’d just set your deadlines earlier, no? It’s statics vs. dynamics all over again. That said, this advice seems reasonable: The author has also developed a foolproof method of structuring your writing, so that you make effective use of your […] The post My namesake doesn’t seem to understand the principles of decision analysis appeared…

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On deck this week

January 18, 2016
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Mon: My namesake doesn’t seem to understand the principles of decision analysis Tues: Middle-aged white death trends update: It’s all about women in the south Wed: My talk Fri 1pm at the University of Chicago Thurs: If you’re using Stata and you want to do Bayes, you should be using StataStan Fri: One quick tip […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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