How to train undergraduate psychologists to be post hoc BS generators

April 3, 2016
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How to train undergraduate psychologists to be post hoc BS generators

Teaching undergraduate psychology is difficult for a variety of reasons. Students come in with preconceived notions about what psychological research is and are sometimes disappointed with the mismatch between their preconceptions and reality. Much of ...

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A bit on the F1 score floor

April 2, 2016
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A bit on the F1 score floor

At Strata+Hadoop World “R Day” Tutorial, Tuesday, March 29 2016, San Jose, California we spent some time on classifier measures derived from the so-called “confusion matrix.” We repeated our usual admonition to not use “accuracy itself” as a project quality goal (business people tend to ask for it as it is the word they are … Continue reading A bit on the F1 score floor

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Himmicanes and hurricanes update

April 2, 2016
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Stuart Buck points us to this new paper by Gary Smith that eviscerates the notorious himmicanes and hurricanes paper. Here’s how Smith’s paper begins: Abstract It has been argued that female-named hurricanes are deadlier because people do not take them seriously. However, this conclusion is based on a questionable statistical analysis of a narrowly defined […] The post Himmicanes and hurricanes update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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WVPlots: example plots in R using ggplot2

April 1, 2016
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WVPlots: example plots in R using ggplot2

Nina Zumel and I have been working on packaging our favorite graphing techniques in a more reusable way that emphasizes the analysis task at hand over the steps needed to produce a good visualization. The idea is: we sacrifice some of the flexibility and composability inherent to ggplot2 in R for a menu of prescribed … Continue reading WVPlots: example plots in R using ggplot2

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Er, about those “other statistical approaches”: Hold off until a balanced critique is in?

April 1, 2016
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Er, about those “other statistical approaches”: Hold off until a balanced critique is in?

I could have told them that the degree of accordance enabling the “6 principles” on p-values was unlikely to be replicated when it came to most of the “other approaches” with which some would supplement or replace significance tests– notably Bayesian updating, Bayes factors, or likelihood ratios (confidence intervals are dual to hypotheses tests). [My commentary […]

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My new Paper

April 1, 2016
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My new Paper

I'm really pleased with the way that my recent paper (with co-author Al Gol) turned out. It's titled "HotGimmer: Random Information", and you can download it here.Comments are welcomed, of course..........© 2016, David E. Giles

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In the biggest advance in applied mathematics since the most recent theorem that Stephen Wolfram paid for . . .

April 1, 2016
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Seth Green writes: I thought you might enjoy this update from the STATA team: . . . suppose we wish to know the effect on employment status of a job training program. Further suppose that motivation affects employment status and motivation affects participation. We do not observe motivation. We have an endogeneity problem. Stata 14’s […] The post In the biggest advance in applied mathematics since the most recent theorem…

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"Reassembling the History of the Novel"

April 1, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: Only of interest if you (1) care about the quantitative history of English novels, and (2) will be in Pittsburgh at the end of the month. I had nothing to do with making this happen — Scott Weingart did — bu...

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You Think This Is Bad

April 1, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: Note the date. Any intelligent and well-intentioned person should have a huge, even over-riding preference for leaving existing social and political institutions and hierarchies alone, just because they are the existing...

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Gresham’s Law of experimental methods

March 31, 2016
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Gresham’s Law of experimental methods

A cognitive scientist writes: You’ll be interested to see a comment from one of my students, who’s trying to follow all your advice: It’s hard to see all this bullshit in top journals, while I see that if I do things right, it takes a long time, and I don’t have the beautiful results these […] The post Gresham’s Law of experimental methods appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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First ask the right question: the data scientist edition

March 31, 2016
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First ask the right question: the data scientist edition

A reader didn't like this graphic in the Wall Street Journal: One could turn every panel into a bar chart but unfortunately, the situation does not improve much. Some charts just can't be fixed by altering the visual design. The...

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pacman Ver 0.4.1 Release

March 31, 2016
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pacman Ver 0.4.1 Release

It was just over a year ago that Dason Kurkiewicz and I released pacman to CRAN.  We have been developing the package on GitHub in the past 14 months and are pleased to announce these changes have made their way … Continue reading →

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New Feather Format for Data Frames

March 31, 2016
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This past Tuesday, Hadley Wickham and Wes McKinney announced a new binary file format specifically for storing data frames. One thing that struck us was that, while R’s data frames and Python’s pandas data frames utilize different internal memo...

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Numbers too good to be true? Or: Thanks, Obama!?

March 30, 2016
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Numbers too good to be true? Or: Thanks, Obama!?

This post is by Phil. The “Affordable Care Act” a.k.a. “Obamacare” was passed in 2010, with its various pieces coming into play over the following few years. One of those pieces is penalties for hospitals that see high readmission rates. The theory here, or at least one of the theories here, was that hospitals could […] The post Numbers too good to be true? Or: Thanks, Obama!? appeared first on…

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Lottery is evil

March 30, 2016
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Paul Alper sends in this news article by Ryan Foley: The former security chief for a national group that operates state lotteries personally bought two prize-winning tickets in Kansas worth $44,000, investigators said Monday, bringing to five the number of states where he may have fixed games to enrich himself and associates. Investigators recently linked […] The post Lottery is evil appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Honoring Gregory Chow, Econometrics Pioneer

March 30, 2016
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Honoring Gregory Chow, Econometrics Pioneer

Wonderful to see this.  So many massive contributions. Structural change, optimal control, development, and much more.New Issue for Frontiers of Economics in China (FEC)FFrontiers of Economics in China <fec@pub.hep.cn>  Reply|To:Di...

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How to check Likert scale summaries for plausibility

March 30, 2016
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Suppose you are reading a paper that uses Likert scale responses. The paper reports the mean, standard deviation, and number of responses. If we are -- for some reason -- suspicious of a paper, we might ask, "Are these summary statistics possible for t...

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Generate points uniformly inside a circular region in 2-D

March 30, 2016
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Generate points uniformly inside a circular region in 2-D

It is easy to generate random points that are uniformly distributed inside a rectangle. You simply generate independent random uniform values for each coordinate. However, nonrectangular regions are more complicated. An instructive example is to simulate points uniformly inside the ball with a given radius. The two-dimensional case is to […] The post Generate points uniformly inside a circular region in 2-D appeared first on The DO Loop.

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How to create an AI startup – convince some humans to be your training set

March 30, 2016
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The latest trend in data science is artificial intelligence. It has been all over the news for tackling a bunch of interesting questions. For example: AlphaGo beat one of the top Go players in the world in what has been called a major advance for t...

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The Amazing Rise of Economic Measurement

March 29, 2016
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The Amazing Rise of Economic Measurement

Economic measurement, empirical economics, evidence-based economics -- call it what you want, but lately it's been trouncing the competition.  The table below, which speaks for itself, is from Bentley MacLeod's interesting new paper, "The Human Ca...

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“Bayesians (quite rightly so according to the theory) . . .”

March 29, 2016
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“Bayesians (quite rightly so according to the theory) . . .”

Stephen Senn writes, “Bayesians (quite rightly so according to the theory) have every right to disagree with each other.” He could also add, “Non-Bayesians (quite rightly so according to the theory) have every right to disagree with each other.” Non-Bayesian statistics, like Bayesian statistics, uses models (or, if you prefer, methods). Different researchers will use […] The post “Bayesians (quite rightly so according to the theory) . . .” appeared…

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another riddle

March 28, 2016
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another riddle

A very nice puzzle on The Riddler last week that kept me busy on train and plane rides, runs and even in between over the weekend. The core of the puzzle is about finding the optimal procedure to select k guesses about the value of a uniformly random integer x in {a,a+1,…,b}, given that each […]

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