Hello Stan!

May 12, 2015
By
Hello Stan!

In my previous post I discussed how Longley-Cook, an actuary at an insurance company in the 1950's, used Bayesian reasoning to estimate the probability for a mid-air collision of two planes.Here I will use the same model to get started with Stan/RStan,...

Read more »

quantile functions: mileage may vary

May 11, 2015
By
quantile functions: mileage may vary

When experimenting with various quantiles functions in R, I was shocked [ok this is a bit excessive, let us say surprised] by how widely the execution times would vary. To the point of blaming a completely different feature of R. Borrowing from Charlie Geyer’s webpage on the topic of probability distributions in R, here is […]

Read more »

Centering and Standardizing: Don’t Confuse Your Rows with Your Columns

May 11, 2015
By
Centering and Standardizing: Don’t Confuse Your Rows with Your Columns

R uses the generic scale( ) function to center and standardize variables in the columns of data matrices. The argument center=TRUE subtracts the column mean from each score in that column, and the argument scale=TRUE divides by the column standard devi...

Read more »

Teaching Causality

May 11, 2015
By
Teaching Causality

Arguably, Judea Pearl is the most influential "Causality Specialist" of our time. (My term, not his!)If you don't subscribe to his blog (Causal Analysis in Theory and Practice) and newsletter already, I'd suggest that you do so.Judea also has several v...

Read more »

Stata’s Academic Growth Nearly as Fast as R’s

May 11, 2015
By
Stata’s Academic Growth Nearly as Fast as R’s

by Bob Muenchen Analytics tools take significant effort to master, so once learned people tend to stick with them for much of their careers. This makes the tools used in academia of particular interest in the study of future trends … Continue reading →

Read more »

There’s No Such Thing As Unbiased Estimation. And It’s a Good Thing, Too.

May 11, 2015
By
There’s No Such Thing As Unbiased Estimation. And It’s a Good Thing, Too.

Following our recent post on econometricians’ traditional privileging of unbiased estimates, there were a bunch of comments echoing the challenge of teaching this topic, as students as well as practitioners often seem to want the comfort of an absolute standard such as best linear unbiased estimate or whatever. Commenters also discussed the tradeoff between bias […] The post There’s No Such Thing As Unbiased Estimation. And It’s a Good Thing,…

Read more »

On deck this week

May 11, 2015
By

Mon: There’s No Such Thing As Unbiased Estimation. And It’s a Good Thing, Too. Tues: There’s something about humans Wed: Humility needed in decision-making Thurs: The connection between varying treatment effects and the well-known optimism of published research findings Fri: I actually think this infographic is ok Sat: Apology to George A. Romero Sun: “Do […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Read more »

But or because more information

May 11, 2015
By
But or because more information

Wall Street Journal uses this paired bar chart to show the favorable/unfavorable ratings of potential GOP candidates for the 2016 presidential elections. (link to original) This chart form is fine. From this chart, we can easily see which candidates have...

Read more »

Coal and the Conservatives

May 11, 2015
By
Coal and the Conservatives

Interesting election results in the UK over the weekend, where the Conservatives romped to victory. This was despite a widespread consensus that neither the Conservative or Labour party would get a majority. This was a triumph for uncertainty and random error over the deterministic, as none of the statistical forecasts appeared to deem such a […]

Read more »

Finding observations that satisfy multiple conditions: The LOC-ELEMENT technique

May 11, 2015
By
Finding observations that satisfy multiple conditions: The LOC-ELEMENT technique

A common task in data analysis is to locate observations that satisfy multiple criteria. For example, you might want to locate all zip codes in certain counties within specified states. The SAS DATA step contains the powerful WHERE statement, which enables you to extract a subset of data that satisfy […] The post Finding observations that satisfy multiple conditions: The LOC-ELEMENT technique appeared first on The DO Loop.

Read more »

The Economist gets in on the AI Fluff

May 11, 2015
By
The Economist gets in on the AI Fluff

The Economist leads with an editorial and an article on The Dawn of Artificial Intelligence. The editorial starts of with: “THE development of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race,” Stephen Hawking warns. Elon Musk fears...

Read more »

Fast SQL moving average calculation without windowing functions

May 11, 2015
By
Fast SQL moving average calculation without windowing functions

In this post, I show a trick to do moving average calculation (can be extended to other operations requiring windowing functions) that is super fast. Often, SAS analysts need to conduct moving average calculation and there are several options by the or...

Read more »

arbitrary distributions with set correlation

May 10, 2015
By
arbitrary distributions with set correlation

A question recently posted on X Validated by Antoni Parrelada: given two arbitrary cdfs F and G, how can we simulate a pair (X,Y) with marginals  F and G, and with set correlation ρ? The answer posted by Antoni Parrelada was to reproduce the Gaussian copula solution: produce (X’,Y’) as a Gaussian bivariate vector with […]

Read more »

JPMorgan, Data-Rich Analyses, and the Public Good

May 10, 2015
By

I recently received an invitation to the JPMorgan Chase event below.Reaction 1: JPMC should stick to its business, which is business, working to maximize the shareholder wealth with which it is entrusted, leaving to others (like me) the "provision of d...

Read more »

Collaborative filtering, hierarchical modeling, and . . . speed dating

May 10, 2015
By
Collaborative filtering, hierarchical modeling, and . . . speed dating

Jonah Sinick posted a few things on the famous speed-dating dataset and writes: The main element that I seem to have been missing is principal component analysis of the different rating types. The basic situation is that the first PC is something that people are roughly equally responsive to, while people vary a lot with […] The post Collaborative filtering, hierarchical modeling, and . . . speed dating appeared first…

Read more »

Visualizing statistical distributions with javascript

May 10, 2015
By
Visualizing statistical distributions with javascript

For the past few years, I've been developing and using a library I created that allows me to easily generate visualizations of statistical distributions for teaching. One can specify a distribution along with a parametrization, and the library sees it ...

Read more »

U-boats in WW-II

May 10, 2015
By
U-boats in WW-II

This is the time when we celebrate the end of the second world war in The Netherlands, so I thought to do somwthig with data from that era. One of the things I enjoyed were books on the sea warfare, such as 'The Cruel Sea'by Nicholas Monsarrat. In that...

Read more »

Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)

May 9, 2015
By
Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)

Stephen Senn Head of Competence Center for Methodology and Statistics (CCMS) Luxembourg Institute of Health Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law “But this could be dealt with in a rough empirical way by taking twice the standard error as a criterion for possible genuineness and three times the standard error for definite acceptance”. Harold […]

Read more »

AI, Artificial Birds and Aeroplanes

May 9, 2015
By
AI, Artificial Birds and Aeroplanes

The Turing Test for artificial intelligence is a reasonably well understood idea: if, through a written form of communication, a machine can convince a human that it too is a human, then it passes the test. The elegance of this...

Read more »

Social networks spread disease—but they also spread practices that reduce disease

May 9, 2015
By
Social networks spread disease—but they also spread practices that reduce disease

I recently posted on the sister blog regarding a paper by Jon Zelner, James Trostle, Jason Goldstick, William Cevallos, James House, and Joseph Eisenberg, “Social Connectedness and Disease Transmission: Social Organization, Cohesion, Village Context, and Infection Risk in Rural Ecuador.” Zelner follows up: This made me think of my favorite figure from this paper, which […] The post Social networks spread disease—but they also spread practices that reduce disease appeared…

Read more »

Vienna Workshop on High-Dimensional Time Series In Macroeconomics and Finance

May 8, 2015
By

Program looking good:  https://www.conftool.net/timeseries2015/sessions.php.  Presumably papers will be posted, or at least you can email the authors.

Read more »

Statistics: P values are just the tip of the iceberg : Nature News & Comment

May 8, 2015
By
Statistics: P values are just the tip of the iceberg : Nature News & Comment

Statistics: P values are just the tip of the iceberg : Nature News & Comment: This article is very important. Yes, p-values reported in the literature (or in your own research) need scrutiny, but so does every step in the analysis process, starting...

Read more »

Yeah ………… That’d Be Great

May 8, 2015
By
Yeah ………… That’d Be Great

"Bill Lumbergh" will continue to terrorize the office via my tweets at @DEAGiles:p.s.: Actually, I do own a "Swingline" stapler, and I'm thinking of re-spraying it fire-engine red.© 2015, David E. Giles

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe