Unusual timing shows how random mass murder can be (or not)

November 3, 2013
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Unusual timing shows how random mass murder can be (or not)

This was one headline in the USA Today I picked from the hotel lobby on my way to Pittsburgh airport and then Toronto this morning. The unusual pattern was about observing four U.S. mass murders happening within four days, “for the first time in at least seven years”. The article did not explain why this […]

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The Rise, Fall and Rise of English Triple Crown Racing Speeds

November 3, 2013
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The Rise, Fall and Rise of English Triple Crown Racing Speeds

A horse with a crimson “6” displayed on either side of its girth processes to the parade ring. There are people milling about, looking over “Six” as well as the other entrants for the 2013 running of the St. Leger Stakes. Alongside Si...

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The Employment Nondiscrimination Act is overwhelmingly popular in nearly every one of the 50 states

November 3, 2013
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The Employment Nondiscrimination Act is overwhelmingly popular in nearly every one of the 50 states

The above graph shows the estimated support, by state, for the Employment Nondiscrimination Act, a gay rights bill that the Senate will be voting on this Monday. The estimates were constructed by Kate Krimmel, Jeff Lax, and Justin Phillips using multilevel regression and poststratification. Check out that graph again. The scale goes from 20% to […]The post The Employment Nondiscrimination Act is overwhelmingly popular in nearly every one of the…

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How best to compare effects measured in two different time periods?

November 3, 2013
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I received the following email from someone who wishes to remain anonymous: My colleague and I are trying to understand the best way to approach a problem involving measuring a group of individuals’ abilities across time, and are hoping you can offer some guidance. We are trying to analyze the combined effect of two distinct […]The post How best to compare effects measured in two different time periods? appeared first…

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Statistical aspects of two-way cross-over studies

November 3, 2013
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I ran into this presentation on Statistical aspects of two-way cross-over studies by Ing. Helmut Schütz (http://bebac.at). He presented some code and referred to the bear package. The bear package is menu driven, which is not my thing. I had...

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Bayes Theorem and Quantum Mechanics

November 3, 2013
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I was reminded of this old post by Andrew Gelman about whether Quantum Mechanics requires a change in the axioms of probability theory. Without weighing in I’ll just point out that Bayesian Statistics is more general than Bayes Theorem and this a...

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I’ve already written next year’s April Fools post!

November 2, 2013
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Good to have gotten that one out of the way already. (Actually, I wrote it a few months ago. This post is itself in the monthlong+ queue.) I don’t know how easy it is to search this blog by date to find the Fools posts from previous years. The ...

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I’ve already written next year’s April Fools post!

November 2, 2013
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Good to have gotten that one out of the way already. (Actually, I wrote it a few months ago. This post is itself in the monthlong+ queue.) I don’t know how easy it is to search this blog by date to find the Fools posts from previous years. The ...

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Weekend Reading: Market Neutral

November 2, 2013
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Weekend Reading: Market Neutral

I recently came across a very interesting idea at the The Problem with Market Neutral (and an Answer) post by Mebane Faber. Today I want to show how you can test such strategy using the Systematic Investor Toolbox: Mebane thank you very much for sharing this great observation and great strategy that works! I would […]

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Le Monde puzzle [#838]

November 1, 2013
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Le Monde puzzle [#838]

Another one of those Le Monde mathematical puzzles which wording is confusing to me: The 40 members of the Academy vote for two prizes. [Like the one recently attributed to my friend and coauthor Olivier Cappé!] Once the votes are counted for both prizes, it appears that the total votes for each of the candidates […]

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Charts that changed the world—way before big data

November 1, 2013
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Charts that changed the world—way before big data

   Text Size   Published: Thursday, 31 Oct 2013 | 7:00 AM ETBy: Eric Rosenbaum | CNBC.comTwitter47LinkedIn186ShareSource: Tableau SoftwareDetail of Ignaz Semmelweis’s germ theory data chartSome years ago I was sent...

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Doing Data Science: What’s it all about?

November 1, 2013
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Doing Data Science:  What’s it all about?

Rachel Schutt and Cathy O’Neil just came out with a wonderfully readable book on doing data science, based on a course Rachel taught last year at Columbia. Rachel is a former Ph.D. student of mine and so I’m inclined to have a positive view of her work; on the other hand, I did actually look […]The post Doing Data Science: What’s it all about? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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UK Government publishes data capability strategy

November 1, 2013
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UK Government publishes data capability strategy

From: StatsLifeWritten by Web News Editor on 31 October 2013. Posted in NewsThe government, in partnership with the recently formed Information Economy Council, has just published its Data Capability Strategy, which outlin...

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LaTeX/MathJax Rendering in Blog Posts

November 1, 2013
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It seems that LaTeX/MathJax is working fine with my blog, including with mobile devices, which is great (see, for example, my recent post On the Wastefulness of (Pseudo-) Out-of-Sample Predictive Model Comparisons). However, a problem exists for t...

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Nonparametric Regression, ABC and CNN

October 31, 2013
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Nonparametric Regression, ABC and CNN

On Monday we had an interesting seminar by Samory Kpotufe on nonparametric regression. Samory presented a method for choosing the smoothing parameter, locally, in nonparametric regression. The method is simple and intuitive: construct confidence intervals using many different values of the smoothing parameter. Choose the value at which the confidence intervals stop intersecting. He has […]

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Nonparametric Regression, ABC and CNN

October 31, 2013
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Nonparametric Regression, ABC and CNN

On Monday we had an interesting seminar by Samory Kpotufe on nonparametric regression. Samory presented a method for choosing the smoothing parameter, locally, in nonparametric regression. The method is simple and intuitive: construct confidence intervals using many different values of the smoothing parameter. Choose the value at which the confidence intervals stop intersecting. He has […]

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WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS

October 31, 2013
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WHIPPING BOYS AND WITCH HUNTERS

This, from 2 years ago, “fits” at least as well today…HAPPY HALLOWEEN! Memory Lane In an earlier post I alleged that frequentist hypotheses tests often serve as whipping boys, by which I meant “scapegoats”, for the well-known misuses, abuses, and flagrant misinterpretations of tests (both simple Fisherian significance tests and Neyman-Pearson tests, although in different ways).  […]

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Creating Knowledge out of Interlinked Data – STATISTICAL OFFICE WORKBENCH

October 31, 2013
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From: http://www.slideshare.net/lod2project/lod2-webinar-series-3rd-relase-of-the-stack

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Real-time streaming differential RNA-seq analysis with eXpress

October 31, 2013
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Real-time streaming differential RNA-seq analysis with eXpress

RNA-seq has been performed routinely for at least 5+ years, yet there is no consensus on the best methodology for analyzing this data. For example, Eduardo Eyras's group recently posted a pre-print on methods to study splicing from RNA-seq, where this ...

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SOA Webinar on Predictive Modeling

October 31, 2013
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I will give, with Qichun Xu, a joint webinar for the Reinsurance Council and the Futurism Council of the Society of Actuaries, on Perspectives of Predictive Modeling with Case Studies in a few days. The slides of my talk are now available (I do recommand to open the pdf version of the slides with Acrobat, since there are animated pictures in the slides that could not be visualized below for instance).…

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Terry wins Prime Minister’s prize and the money goes to ?

October 31, 2013
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Terry wins Prime Minister’s prize and the money goes to ?

Big congratulations to Terry Speed who won the 2013 Prime Minister’s Prize for Science award. When he joins ABC News Breakfast, he talks about the prize, the pride, and the role statistics played in the O.J. Simpson murder case in which he testified as an expert witness. Listen to him and you will also figure out […]

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Diagrams for hierarchical models: New drawing tools

October 31, 2013
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Diagrams for hierarchical models: New drawing tools

Two new drawing tools for making hierarchical diagrams have been recently developed. One tool is a set of distribution and connector templates in LibreOffice Draw and R, created by Rasmus Bååth. Another tool is scripts for making the drawings in LaTe...

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On the Wastefulness of (Pseudo-) Out-of-Sample Predictive Model Comparisons

October 31, 2013
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Peter Hansen and Allan Timmermann have a fantastic new paper, "Equivalence Between Out-of-Sample Forecast Comparisons and Wald Statistics."The finite-sample wastefulness of (pseudo-) out-of-sample model comparisons seems obvious, as they effe...

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