You Won’t BELIEVE How Trump Broke Up This Celebrity Couple!

December 23, 2016
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You Won’t BELIEVE How Trump Broke Up This Celebrity Couple!

A few months ago I asked if it was splitsville for tech zillionaire Peter Thiel and chess champion Garry Kasparov, after seeing this quote from Kasparov in April: Trump sells the myth of American success instead of the real thing. . . . It’s tempting to rally behind him-but we should resist. Because the New […] The post You Won’t BELIEVE How Trump Broke Up This Celebrity Couple! appeared first…

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Ordering Categories within ggplot2 Facets

December 23, 2016
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Ordering Categories within ggplot2 Facets

I saw Simon Jackson’s recent blog post regarding ordering categories within facets. He proposed a way of dealing with the problem of ordering variables shared across facets within facets. This problem becomes apparent in text analysis where words are shared … Continue reading →

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Books on Scala for statistical computing and data science

December 22, 2016
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Introduction People regularly ask me about books and other resources for getting started with Scala for statistical computing and data science. This post will focus on books, but it’s worth briefly noting that there are a number of other resources available, on-line and otherwise, that are also worth considering. I particularly like the Coursera course … Continue reading Books on Scala for statistical computing and data science

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Scala for Data Science [book review]

December 22, 2016
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This post will review the book: Scala for Data Science, Bugnion, Packt, 2016. Disclaimer: This book review has not been solicited by the publisher (or anyone else) in any way. I purchased the review copy of this book myself. I have not received any benefit from the writing of this review. Introduction On this blog … Continue reading Scala for Data Science [book review]

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Comparative examples using replyr::let

December 22, 2016
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Comparative examples using replyr::let

Consider the problem of “parametric programming” in R. That is: simply writing correct code before knowing some details, such as the names of the columns your procedure will have to be applied to in the future. Our latest version of replyr::let makes such programming easier. Archie’s Mechanics #2 (1954) copyright Archie Publications (edit: great news! … Continue reading Comparative examples using replyr::let

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This is not news.

December 22, 2016
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This is not news.

Anne Pier Salverda writes: I’m not sure if you’re keeping track of published failures to replicate the power posing effect, but this article came out earlier this month: “Embodied power, testosterone, and overconfidence as a causal pathway to risk-taking.” From the abstract: We were unable to replicate the findings of the original study and subsequently […] The post This is not news. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Michael found the bug in Stan’s new sampler

December 22, 2016
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Michael found the bug in Stan’s new sampler

Gotcha! Michael found the bug! That was a lot of effort, during which time he produced ten pages of dense LaTeX to help Daniel and me understand the algorithm enough to help debug (we’re trying to write a bunch of these algorithmic details up for a more general audience, so stay tuned). So what was […] The post Michael found the bug in Stan’s new sampler appeared first on Statistical…

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You’ll have to figure this one out for yourselves.

December 21, 2016
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You’ll have to figure this one out for yourselves.

So. The other day this following email comes in, subject line “Grabbing headlines using poor statistical methods,” from Clifford Anderson-Bergman: Here’s another to file under “How to get mainstream publication by butchering your statistics”. The paper: Comparison of Hospital Mortality and Readmission Rates for Medicare Patients Treated by Male vs Female Physicians Journal: JAMA Featured […] The post You’ll have to figure this one out for yourselves. appeared first on…

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You’ll have to figure this one out for yourselves.

December 21, 2016
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You’ll have to figure this one out for yourselves.

So. The other day this following email comes in, subject line “Grabbing headlines using poor statistical methods,” from Clifford Anderson-Bergman: Here’s another to file under “How to get mainstream publication by butchering your statistics”. The paper: Comparison of Hospital Mortality and Readmission Rates for Medicare Patients Treated by Male vs Female Physicians Journal: JAMA Featured […] The post You’ll have to figure this one out for yourselves. appeared first on…

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Bayesian assessment of null values

December 21, 2016
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Bayesian assessment of null values

A blog post by Christian Robert considered an ancient (2011!) article titled "Bayesian assessment of null values via parameter estimation and model comparison." Here I'll try to clarify the ideas from way back then through the lens of more recent diagr...

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Stan 2.10 through Stan 2.13 produce biased samples

December 20, 2016
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Stan 2.10 through Stan 2.13 produce biased samples

[Update: bug found! See the follow-up post, Michael found the bug in Stan’s new sampler] [Update: rolled in info from comments.] After all of our nagging of people to use samplers that produce unbiased samples, we are mortified to have to announce that Stan versions 2.10 through 2.13 produce biased samples. The issue Thanks to […] The post Stan 2.10 through Stan 2.13 produce biased samples appeared first on Statistical…

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Steve Fienberg

December 20, 2016
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I did not know Steve Fienberg well, but I met him several times and encountered his work on various occasions, which makes sense considering his research area was statistical modeling as applied to social science. Fienberg’s most influential work must have been his books on the analysis of categorical data, work that was ahead of […] The post Steve Fienberg appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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On deck very soon

December 20, 2016
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A bunch of the 170 are still in the queue. I haven’t been adding to the scheduled posts for awhile, instead I’ve been inserting topical items from time to time—I even got some vicious hate mail for my article on the electoral college—and then I’ve been shoving material for new posts into a big file […] The post On deck very soon appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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A Simple Example of Using replyr::gapply

December 19, 2016
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A Simple Example of Using replyr::gapply

It’s a common situation to have data from multiple processes in a “long” data format, for example a table with columns measurement and process_that_produced_measurement. It’s also natural to split that data apart to analyze or transform it, per-process — and then to bring the results of that data processing together, for comparison. Such a work … Continue reading A Simple Example of Using replyr::gapply

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A Simple Example of Using replyr::gapply

December 19, 2016
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A Simple Example of Using replyr::gapply

It’s a common situation to have data from multiple processes in a “long” data format, for example a table with columns measurement and process_that_produced_measurement. It’s also natural to split that data apart to analyze or transform it, per-process — and then to bring the results of that data processing together, for comparison. Such a work … Continue reading A Simple Example of Using replyr::gapply

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What do these items have in common?

December 19, 2016
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What do these items have in common?

What do the following items have in common? A. Motion-detection light switch in your office that shuts off while you're typing at your computer B. Automatic flush that turns on while you're seated C. Voice-recognition system that picks up ambient noise and asks you to repeat something you didn't say D. Auto-correct software that flips a correct spelling to the wrong one you didn't anti-auto-correct the last time E. Fuzzy-logic…

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Is this chart rotten?

December 19, 2016
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Is this chart rotten?

Some students pointed me to a FiveThirtyEight article about Rotten Tomatoes scores that contain the following chart: (link to original) This is a chart that makes my head spin. Too much is going on, and all the variables in the...

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Low correlation of predictions and outcomes is no evidence against hot hand

December 19, 2016
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Low correlation of predictions and outcomes is no evidence against hot hand

Josh Miller (of Miller & Sanjurjo) writes: On correlations, you know, the original Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky paper found that the Cornell players’ “predictions” of their teammates’ shots correlated 0.04, on average. No evidence they can see the hot hand, right? Here is an easy correlation question: suppose Bob shoots with probability ph=.55 when he […] The post Low correlation of predictions and outcomes is no evidence against hot hand…

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Honoured to receive the Leamer-Rosenthal-Prize

December 19, 2016
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I’m honoured that the Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences (BITSS) chose me for one of the 2016 Leamer-Rosenthal Prizes for Open Social Science! This award comes with a prize of $10,000 and “recognizes important contrib...

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Inspired by water leaks

December 19, 2016
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Inspired by water leaks

For me, 2016 is a year of water leaks. I was forced to move apartments during the summer. (Blame my old landlord for the lower frequency of posts this year!) That old apartment was overrun by water issues. In the past four years, there were two big leaks in addition to annual visible "seepage" in the ceiling. The first big leak ruined my first night back from Hurricane Sandy-induced evacuation.…

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Solve linear programming problems in SAS

December 19, 2016
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Solve linear programming problems in SAS

In some applications, you need to optimize a linear objective function of many variables, subject to linear constraints. Solving this problem is called linear programming or linear optimization. This article shows two ways to solve linear programming problems in SAS: You can use the OPTMODEL procedure in SAS/OR software or […] The post Solve linear programming problems in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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When Rankings Are Just Data Porn

December 19, 2016
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When Rankings Are Just Data Porn

Rankings are a common way of talking about data: who made the most money, who won the most medals, etc. But they hide issues in the underlying data. Is the difference between first and second meaningful or just noise? Here is a data video that nicely demonstrates the problem. Watch the first few minutes of […]

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Not All Measures of GDP are Created Equal

December 19, 2016
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Not All Measures of GDP are Created Equal

A big hat-tip to one of my former grad. students, Ryan MacDonald at Statistics Canada, for bringing to my attention a really informative C.D. Howe Institute Working Paper by Philip Cross (former Chief Economic Analyst at Statistics Canada).The paper is...

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