In the era of #repligate: What are valid cues for the trustworthiness of a study?

September 7, 2015
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[Update 2015/1/14: I consolidate feedback from Twitter, comments, email, and real life into the main text (StackExchange-style), so that we get a good and improving answer. Thanks to @TonyLFreitas,@PhDefunct, @bahniks, @JoeHilgard, @_r_c_a, @richardmor...

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Gaze-cueing and trustworthiness: New paper + raw data + R script on OSF

September 7, 2015
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Recently, a student of mine (Felix Senbach, now at the University of Edinburgh) and I published a little study on gaze-cueing, and how it is moderated by the trustworthiness of the gazing person. In a nutshell, although instructed to ignore the gaze, p...

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#HIBAR: Why Using Age as a Proxy for Testosterone is a Bad Deal.

September 7, 2015
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This is a post-publication peer review (HIBAR: “Had I Been A Reviewer”) of the following paper: Levi, M., Li, K., & Zhang, F. (2010). Deal or no deal: Hormones and the mergers and acquisitions game. Management Science 56, 1462 -1483. A ...

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More Stan on the blog

September 7, 2015
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Whoa. Stan is 3 years old. We’ve come a long way since the start. I came into the project just as a working prototype was implemented by Matt and Bob with discussions with Andrew, Ben, Michael Malecki, Jiqiang, and others. (I had been working for Andrew prior to the official start of the project, but […] The post More Stan on the blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Guns and Rare Events

September 6, 2015
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Seems that people with severe mental illness are able to easily purchase guns in this country. Seems like people (whether actually mentally ill or not) who are upset and angry and want to hurt someone also can purchase a gun easily. Often we hear that...

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vtreat up on CRAN!

September 6, 2015
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vtreat up on CRAN!

Nina Zumel and I are proud to announce our R vtreat variable treatment library has just been accepted by CRAN! It will take some time for the vtreat package to progress to various CRAN mirrors, but as of now you can install vtreat with the command: install.packages('vtreat', repos='http://cran.r-project.org/') Instead of needing to use devtools to … Continue reading vtreat up on CRAN!

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BREAKING . . . Sepp Blatter accepted $2M payoff from Dennis Hastert

September 6, 2015
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I think Sheldon Silver and Dean Skelos were involved too. It all went down on the George Washington Bridge, and Hillary Clinton recorded it in her personal email. Details coming from Seymour Hersh. P.S. This was topical back when I wrote in early June! I would’ve put it on the sister blog, which specializes in […] The post BREAKING . . . Sepp Blatter accepted $2M payoff from Dennis Hastert…

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Predicting Titanic deaths on Kaggle V: Ranger

September 6, 2015
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Predicting Titanic deaths on Kaggle V: Ranger

In two previous posts (Predicting Titanic deaths on Kaggle IV: random forest revisited, Predicting Titanic deaths on Kaggle) I was unable to make random forest predict as well as boosting. Hence when I read about an alternative implementation; ranger&n...

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All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4 years on

September 6, 2015
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All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4 years on

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (4 years) By: D. G. Mayo [i] Dear Reader: It’s hard to believe I’ve been blogging for 4 whole years (as of Sept. 3, 2015)! A big celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room as I type this. (Remember the 1 year anniversary here? Remember that hideous blogspot? Oy!) Please […]

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Emails I never finished reading

September 5, 2015
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This one came in today (i.e., 2 months ago): Dear colleague, Can I ask you a quick question? I am seeing more and more research projects (many in the economic sciences) in which researchers use dummy-codes to account for non-independence due to higher-order units. So when the researchers have data from employees in 15 different […] The post Emails I never finished reading appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Tutorials freely available of course I taught: including ggplot2, dplyr and shiny

September 5, 2015
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I was asked to write a R course for a group of innovative companies in the North of the Netherlands. The group of 12 people was a mix of engineers and programmers, and the course aimed at giving them a… See more ›

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Bootstrap Evaluation of Clusters

September 4, 2015
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Bootstrap Evaluation of Clusters

Illustration from Project Gutenberg The goal of cluster analysis is to group the observations in the data into clusters such that every datum in a cluster is more similar to other datums in the same cluster than it is to datums in other clusters. This is an analysis method of choice when annotated training data … Continue reading Bootstrap Evaluation of Clusters

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"Reproducibility and Reliability in Statistical and Data Driven Research" (Week after Next at the Statistics Seminar)

September 4, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: Publicity for an upcoming academic talk, of interest only if (1) you will be in Pittsburgh and (2) you care about whether scientific research can be reproduced. The timeliness of the opening talk of this year's statisti...

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P-values and statistical practice

September 4, 2015
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What is a p-value in practice? The p-value is a measure of discrepancy of the fit of a model or “null hypothesis” H to data y. In theory the p-value is a continuous measure of evidence, but in practice it is typically trichotomized approximately into strong evidence, weak evidence, and no evidence (these can also […] The post P-values and statistical practice appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Mathematical art (part 2): Unweaving matrices

September 4, 2015
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Mathematical art (part 2): Unweaving matrices

In my previous blog post, I showed how you can use SAS to program a "weaving" algorithm that takes an image, cuts it into strips, and weaves the strips together to create mathematical art. I used matrices and heat maps for the computations and visualization. At the end of the […] The post Mathematical art (part 2): Unweaving matrices appeared first on The DO Loop.

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ABC model choice via random forests [and no fire]

September 3, 2015
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ABC model choice via random forests [and no fire]

While my arXiv newspage today had a puzzling entry about modelling UFOs sightings in France, it also broadcast our revision of Reliable ABC model choice via random forests, version that we resubmitted today to Bioinformatics after a quite thorough upgrade, the most dramatic one being the realisation we could also approximate the posterior probability of […]

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ABC model choice via random forests [and no fire]

September 3, 2015
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ABC model choice via random forests [and no fire]

While my arXiv newspage today had a puzzling entry about modelling UFOs sightings in France, it also broadcast our revision of Reliable ABC model choice via random forests, version that we resubmitted today to Bioinformatics after a quite thorough upgrade, the most dramatic one being the realisation we could also approximate the posterior probability of […]

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A Psych Science reader-participation game: Name this blog post

September 3, 2015
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A Psych Science reader-participation game:  Name this blog post

In a discussion of yesterday’s post on studies that don’t replicate, Nick Brown did me the time-wasting disservice of pointing out a recent press release from Psychological Science which, as you might have heard, is “the highest ranked empirical journal in psychology.” The press release is called “Blue and Seeing Blue: Sadness May Impair Color […] The post A Psych Science reader-participation game: Name this blog post appeared first on…

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reaching transcendence for Gaussian mixtures

September 2, 2015
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reaching transcendence for Gaussian mixtures

“…likelihood inference is in a fundamental way more complicated than the classical method of moments.” Carlos Amendola, Mathias Drton, and Bernd Sturmfels arXived a paper this Friday on “maximum likelihood estimates for Gaussian mixtures are transcendental”. By which they mean that trying to solve the five likelihood equations for a two-component Gaussian mixture does not […]

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reaching transcendence for Gaussian mixtures

September 2, 2015
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reaching transcendence for Gaussian mixtures

“…likelihood inference is in a fundamental way more complicated than the classical method of moments.” Carlos Amendola, Mathias Drton, and Bernd Sturmfels arXived a paper this Friday on “maximum likelihood estimates for Gaussian mixtures are transcendental”. By which they mean that trying to solve the five likelihood equations for a two-component Gaussian mixture does not […]

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How do you know if your model is going to work? Part 1: The problem

September 2, 2015
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How do you know if your model is going to work? Part 1: The problem

Authors: John Mount (more articles) and Nina Zumel (more articles). “Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.” George Box Here’s a caricature of a data science project: your company or client needs information (usually to make a decision). Your job is to build a model to predict that information. You fit a model, … Continue reading How do you know if your model is going to work? Part…

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USAs usannsynlige presidentkandidat.

September 2, 2015
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USAs usannsynlige presidentkandidat.

With current lag, this should really appear in September but I thought I better post it now in case it does not remain topical. It’s a news article by Linda May Kallestein, which begins as follows: Sosialisten Bernie Sanders: Kan en 73 år gammel jøde, født av polske innvandrere, vokst opp under enkle kår og […] The post USAs usannsynlige presidentkandidat. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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To understand the replication crisis, imagine a world in which everything was published.

September 2, 2015
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To understand the replication crisis, imagine a world in which everything was published.

John Snow points me to this post by psychology researcher Lisa Feldman Barrett who reacted to the recent news on the non-replication of many psychology studies with a contrarian, upbeat take, entitled “Psychology Is Not in Crisis.” Here’s Barrett: An initiative called the Reproducibility Project at the University of Virginia recently reran 100 psychology experiments […] The post To understand the replication crisis, imagine a world in which everything was…

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