Swimsuit special: “A pure Bayesian or pure non-Bayesian is not forever doomed to use out-of-date methods, but at any given time the purist will be missing some of the most effective current techniques.”

March 17, 2016
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Joshua Vogelstein points me to this paper by Gerd Gigerenzer and Julian Marewski, who write: The idol of a universal method for scientific inference has been worshipped since the “inference revolution” of the 1950s. Because no such method has ever been found, surrogates have been created, most notably the quest for significant p values. This […] The post Swimsuit special: “A pure Bayesian or pure non-Bayesian is not forever doomed…

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Lack of free lunch again rears ugly head

March 16, 2016
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We had some discussion on blog the other day of prior distributions in settings such as small experiments where available data do not give a strong inference on their own, and commenter Rahul wrote: In real settings I rarely see experts agree anywhere close to a consensus about the prior. Estimates are all over the […] The post Lack of free lunch again rears ugly head appeared first on Statistical…

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Simulate from the multinomial distribution in the SAS DATA step

March 16, 2016
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Simulate from the multinomial distribution in the SAS DATA step

There are several ways to simulate multinomial data in SAS. In the SAS/IML matrix language, you can use the RANDMULTINOMIAL function to generate samples from the multinomial distribution. If you don't have a SAS/IML license, I have previously written about how to use the SAS DATA step or PROC SURVEYSELECT […] The post Simulate from the multinomial distribution in the SAS DATA step appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Stan backronym just a joke

March 15, 2016
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Stan is named after Stanislaw Ulam, the inventor of the Monte Carlo method. At one point we were joking around and I came up with the backronym Sampling Through Adaptive Neighborhoods. I kinda like this as a backronym but it was really just a joke. Stan does not stand for Sampling Through Adaptive Neighborhoods. Stan […] The post Stan backronym just a joke appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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How should statisticians and economists think about recreational gambling?

March 15, 2016
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How should statisticians and economists think about recreational gambling?

Recreational gambling is a lot like recreational drinking, in that it is pleasant, and it can be abused, and the very aspects that make it pleasant are related to what makes it so destructive when abused. Also, both industries make a lot of money, so there’s a continuing tug of war between those who sell […] The post How should statisticians and economists think about recreational gambling? appeared first on…

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Ye Olde Pie Chart Debate

March 15, 2016
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Ye Olde Pie Chart Debate

You may think that the debate over pie charts was a new one, but it has raged on for at least 100 years. Brinton started it in 1914, and great drama unfolded in the pages of the Journal of the American Statistical Association in the 1920s. Willard Brinton It all started with Willard C. Brinton … Continue reading Ye Olde Pie Chart Debate

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Recently in the sister blog

March 14, 2016
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Recently in the sister blog

Can you trust international surveys? Place your bets now. How much does someone’s world view predict their other attitudes? You funded these clinical trials, but you’ll never know what they found. Where’s the partisan polarization on abortion? Political scientists are debating how to make research more transparent. Here’s a way forward. Maybe college football doesn’t […] The post Recently in the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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On deck this week

March 14, 2016
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Mon: Recently in the sister blog Tues: How should statisticians and economists think about recreational gambling? Wed: Lack of free lunch again rears ugly head Thurs: Swimsuit special: “A pure Bayesian or pure non-Bayesian is not forever doomed to use out-of-date methods, but at any given time the purist will be missing some of the […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Which way to die, the Bard asked #onelesspie

March 14, 2016
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Which way to die, the Bard asked #onelesspie

Happy Pi Day! In honor of Xan Gregg, I take aim at another pie chart today. This monstrosity was found on Vox (link): The data pose a major challenge here: almost all the numbers are equal to one. This could...

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Italians do it better!

March 14, 2016
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Italians do it better!

I've just spent a little over one hour to sort out my registration, travel and accommodation for the upcoming ISBA conference, later this year in Sardinia $-$ well, I say "sort out"... I think most of the details have been sorted out, so fingers crosse...

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Monte Carlo estimates of pi and an important statistical lesson

March 14, 2016
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Monte Carlo estimates of pi and an important statistical lesson

Today is March 14th, which is annually celebrated as Pi Day. Today's date, written as 3/14/16, represents the best five-digit approximation of pi. On Pi Day, many people blog about how to approximate pi. This article uses a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate pi, in spite of the fact that […] The post Monte Carlo estimates of pi and an important statistical lesson appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Not So Standard Deviations Episode 11 – Start and Stop

March 14, 2016
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We’ve started a Patreon page! Now you can support the podcast directly by going to our page and making a pledge. This will help Hilary and me build the podcast, add new features, and get some better equipment. Episode 11 is an all craft episode of N...

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Happy PI day

March 13, 2016
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I have never done a post for PI day. This year I want to do so.So, we all know the simple estimation of PI based on random numbers. The code used here is chosen for speed in R.pi2d <- function(N=1000) {  4*sum(rowSums(matrix(runif(N*2)^2,ncol=2...

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The unbelievable reason that Jennifer Lawrence is using Waic and cross-validation for survival models

March 13, 2016
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Sam Brilleman writes: I’ve been reading two of your recent papers: (1) Gelman A, Hwang J, Vehtari A. Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models. Statistics and Computing 2014; 24: 997-1016. (2) Vehtari A, Gelman A. WAIC and cross-validation in Stan. Submitted. 2014. http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/unpublished/waic_stan.pdf. Accessed: 6 July 2015. My question in short is: The example […] The post The unbelievable reason that Jennifer Lawrence is using Waic and cross-validation for…

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“A small p-value indicates it’s improbable that the results are due to chance alone” –fallacious or not? (more on the ASA p-value doc)

March 12, 2016
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“A small p-value indicates it’s improbable that the results are due to chance alone” –fallacious or not? (more on the ASA p-value doc)

There’s something about “Principle 2” in the ASA document on p-values that I couldn’t address in my brief commentary, but is worth examining more closely. 2. P-values do not measure (a) the probability that the studied hypothesis is true , or (b) the probability that the data were produced  by random chance alone, (a) is true, […]

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0.05 is a joke

March 12, 2016
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0.05 is a joke

Jim Delaney points to this tutorial by F. Perry Wilson on why the use of a “p less than 0.05” threshold does not imply a false positive rate of 5%, even if all the assumptions of the model are true. This is standard stuff but it’s always good to see it one more time. Delaney […] The post 0.05 is a joke appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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“Why this gun control study might be too good to be true”

March 11, 2016
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“Why this gun control study might be too good to be true”

Jeff Lax points us to this news article by Carolyn Johnson discussing a research paper, “Firearm legislation and firearm mortality in the USA: a cross-sectional, state-level study,” by Bindu Kalesan, Matthew Mobily, Olivia Keiser, Jeffrey Fagan, and Sandro Galea, that just appeared in the medical journal The Lancet. Here are the findings from Kalesan et […] The post “Why this gun control study might be too good to be true”…

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Short course on Statistical Methods for the Value of Information Analysis

March 11, 2016
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We're now ready to start the advertisement for our short course on Statistical Methods for the Value of Information Analysis (I've posted about this here). The course will be at UCL from the 8th to the 9th of June, later this year. I think we have been...

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Statistics is like basketball, or knitting

March 11, 2016
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Statistics is like basketball, or knitting

I had a recent exchange with a news reporter regarding one of those silly psychology studies. I took a look at the article in question—this time it wasn’t published in Psychological Science or PPNAS so it didn’t get saturation publicity—and indeed it was bad, laughably bad. They didn’t just have the garden of forking paths, […] The post Statistics is like basketball, or knitting appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Miserable Teaching Evaluations

March 11, 2016
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Miserable Teaching Evaluations

I have always disliked teaching evaluations, feeling that they fail to measure true teaching effectiveness. And it's not just sour grapes -- really, I swear, I generally do fine and have won several teaching awards. Rather, I simply think that teachi...

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dplyr workshop

March 11, 2016
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dplyr workshop code{white-space: pre;} pre:not([class]) { background-color: white; } if (window.hljs && document.readyState && document.readyState === "complete") { window.setTimeout(function() { hljs.initHighlighting(); }, 0); } ...

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The day after the shock: pollsters, forecasters scratch their heads

March 11, 2016
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Pollsters, forecasters, and the likes were embarrassed by the Bernie Sanders upset in Michigan Tuesday night. Nate Silver called it among the greatest polling error in primary history. Now, they are struggling to explain the big miss. Recall the polls conducted close to the contest showed a Clinton lead of about 20 percent points. The actual outcome was a gap of 1.5 points, with a million votes cast. This type…

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Amazonish warning

March 10, 2016
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Amazonish warning

As in previous years, I want to repost a warning to ‘Og readers that all http links to Amazon.com [and much more rarely to Amazon.fr] products found on this ‘Og are actually susceptible to reward me with an advertising percentage if a purchase is made by the reader in the 24 hours following the entry […]

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