On deck this week

June 13, 2016
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Mon: They threatened to sue Mike Spagat but that’s not shutting him up Tues: “Smaller Share of Women Ages 65 and Older Are Living Alone,” before and after age adjusment Wed: Objects of the class “Pauline Kael” Thurs: research-lies-allegations-windpipe-surgery Fri: Hey—here’s a tip from the biology literature: If your correlation is .02, try binning your […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Overlay plots on a box plot in SAS: Discrete X axis

June 13, 2016
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Overlay plots on a box plot in SAS: Discrete X axis

Box plots summarize the distribution of a continuous variable. You can display multiple box plots in a single graph by specifying a categorical variable. The resulting graph shows the distribution of subpopulations, such as different experimental groups. In the SGPLOT procedure, you can use the CATEGORY= option on the VBOX […] The post Overlay plots on a box plot in SAS: Discrete X axis appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Good list of good books

June 13, 2016
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The MultiThreaded blog over at Stitch Fix (hat tip to Hilary Parker) has posted a really nice list of data science books (disclosure: one of my books is on the list). We’ve queried our data science team for some of their favorite data science boo...

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How to Cut Your Planks with R

June 12, 2016
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How to Cut Your Planks with R

Today I’m extraordinarily pleased because today I solved an actuall real world problem using R. Sure, I’ve solved many esoteric statistical problems with R, but I’m not sure if any of those solutions have escaped the digital world and made some...

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How to design a survey so that Mister P will work well?

June 12, 2016
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How to design a survey so that Mister P will work well?

Barry Quinn writes: I would like some quick advice on survey design literature, specifically any good references you would have when designing a good online survey to allow for some decent hierarchal modeling? My quick response is that during the opening you should already be thinking about the endgame. In this case, the endgame is […] The post How to design a survey so that Mister P will work well?…

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Log Sum of Exponentials for Robust Sums on the Log Scale

June 11, 2016
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This is a public service announcement in the interest of more robust numerical calculations. Like matrix inverse, exponentiation is bad news. It’s prone to overflow or underflow. Just try this in R: > exp(-800) > exp(800) That’s not rounding error you see. The first one evaluates to zero (underflows) and the second to infinity (overflows). […] The post Log Sum of Exponentials for Robust Sums on the Log Scale appeared…

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No, I’m not convinced by this one either.

June 11, 2016
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No, I’m not convinced by this one either.

Alex Gamma sends along a recently published article by Carola Salvi, Irene Cristofori, Jordan Grafman, and Mark Beeman, along with the note: This might be of interest to you, since it’s political science and smells bad. From The Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology: Two groups of 22 college students each identified as conservatives or liberals […] The post No, I’m not convinced by this one either. appeared first on Statistical…

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Stan makes Euro predictions! (now with data and code so you can fit your own, better model)

June 11, 2016
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Stan makes Euro predictions! (now with data and code so you can fit your own, better model)

Leonardo Egidi writes: Inspired by your world cup model I fitted in Stan a model for the Euro Cup which start today, with two Poisson distributions for the goals scored at every match by the two teams (perfect prediction for the first match!). Data and code are here. Here’s the model, and here are the […] The post Stan makes Euro predictions! (now with data and code so you can…

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Betancourt Binge (Video Lectures on HMC and Stan)

June 10, 2016
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Betancourt Binge (Video Lectures on HMC and Stan)

Even better than binging on Netflix, catch up on Michael Betancourt’s updated video lectures, just days after their live theatrical debut in Tokyo. Scalable Bayesian Inference with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (YouTube, 1 hour) Some Bayesian Modeling Techniques in Stan (YouTube, 1 hour 40 minutes) His previous videos have received very good reviews and they’re only […] The post Betancourt Binge (Video Lectures on HMC and Stan) appeared first on Statistical…

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Racial classification sociology controversy update

June 10, 2016
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The other day I posted on a controversy in sociology where Aliya Saperstein and Andrew Penner analyzed data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, coming to the conclusion that “that race is not a fixed characteristic of individuals but is flexible and continually negotiated in everyday interactions,” but then Lance Hannon and Robert DeFina […] The post Racial classification sociology controversy update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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EuroVis 2016, Thursday and Friday

June 10, 2016
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EuroVis 2016, Thursday and Friday

After Tuesday and Wednesday, EuroVis continued for the rest of the week. There were papers about visualization, interaction, networks, and other stuff, a dinner in a former church, and finally the capstone.  First a little update: you can now watch Anders Ynnerman’s epic keynote. Coordinated Views and Interaction Design Who says coordinated views have to be next … Continue reading EuroVis 2016, Thursday and Friday

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The latest IJF issue with GEFCom2014 results

The latest IJF issue with GEFCom2014 results

The latest issue of the IJF is a bumper issue with over 500 pages of forecasting insights. The GEFCom2014 papers are included in a special section on probabilistic energy forecasting, guest edited by Tao Hong and Pierre Pinson. This is a major milesto...

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A Primer on Bayesian Multilevel Modeling using PyStan

June 9, 2016
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A Primer on Bayesian Multilevel Modeling using PyStan

Chris Fonnesbeck contributed our first PyStan case study (I wrote the abstract), in the form of a very nice Jupyter notebook. Daniel Lee and I had the pleasure of seeing him present it live as part of a course we were doing at Vanderbilt last week. A Primer on Bayesian Multilevel Modeling using PyStan This […] The post A Primer on Bayesian Multilevel Modeling using PyStan appeared first on Statistical…

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Why you should read Nina Zumel’s 3 part series on principal components analysis and regression

June 9, 2016
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Why you should read Nina Zumel’s 3 part series on principal components analysis and regression

Short form: Win-Vector LLC’s Dr. Nina Zumel has a three part series on Principal Components Regression that we think is well worth your time. Part 1: the proper preparation of data (including scaling) and use of principal components analysis (particularly for supervised learning or regression). Part 2: the introduction of y-aware scaling to direct the … Continue reading Why you should read Nina Zumel’s 3 part series on principal components…

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“What is a good, convincing example in which p-values are useful?”

June 9, 2016
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A correspondent writes: I came across this discussion of p-values, and I’d be very interested in your thoughts on it, especially on the evaluation in that thread of “two major arguments against the usefulness of the p-value:” 1. With large samples, significance tests pounce on tiny, unimportant departures from the null hypothesis. 2. Almost no […] The post “What is a good, convincing example in which p-values are useful?” appeared…

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data challenge in Sardinia

June 9, 2016
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data challenge in Sardinia

In what I hope is the first occurrence of a new part of ISBA conferences, Booking.com is launching a data challenge at ISBA 2016 next week. The prize being a trip to take part in their monthly hackathon. In Amsterdam. It would be terrific if our Bayesian conferences, including BayesComp, could gather enough data and […]

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Not So Standard Deviations Episode 17 – Diurnal High Variance

June 9, 2016
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Hilary and I talk about Amazon Echo and Alexa as AI as a service, the COMPAS algorithm, criminal justice forecasts, and whether algorithms can introduce or remove bias (or both). If you have questions you’d like us to answer, you can send them to ns...

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EuroVis 2016, Tuesday and Wednesday

June 8, 2016
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EuroVis 2016, Tuesday and Wednesday

EuroVis 2016 is happening this week in Groningen, The Netherlands. This is the report from the first two-and-a-half days,  which saw some symposia, a keynote, and many paper presentations. The pre-conference program kicked off on Monday afternoon. In addition to a few small symposia, there was also a tutorial on machine learning and visualization. It was pretty basic, … Continue reading EuroVis 2016, Tuesday and Wednesday

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Free e-book: Exploring Data Science

June 8, 2016
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Free e-book: Exploring Data Science

We are pleased to announce a new free e-book from Manning Publications: Exploring Data Science. Exploring Data Science is a collection of five chapters hand picked by John Mount and Nina Zumel, introducing you to various areas in data science and explaining which methodologies work best for each. Exploring Data Science gives you a free … Continue reading Free e-book: Exploring Data Science

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Why is this chart so damn hard to read?

June 8, 2016
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Why is this chart so damn hard to read?

My summer course on analytical methods is already at the midway point. I was doing some research on recommendation systems the other day, and came across the following chart: Ouch. This is from the Park, et. al. (2012) survey of...

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Donald Trump and Joe McCarthy

June 8, 2016
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He built . . . a coalition of the aggrieved—of men and women not deranged but affronted by various tendencies over the previous two or three decades . . . That’s political reporter Richard Rovere in his 1958 classic, “Senator Joe McCarthy.” I hate to draw an analogy between McCarthy and Donald Trump because it […] The post Donald Trump and Joe McCarthy appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Lasagna plots in SAS: When spaghetti plots don’t suffice

June 8, 2016
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Lasagna plots in SAS: When spaghetti plots don’t suffice

Last week I discussed how to create spaghetti plots in SAS. A spaghetti plot is a type of line plot that contains many lines. Spaghetti plots are used in longitudinal studies to show trends among individual subjects, which can be patients, hospitals, companies, states, or countries. I showed ways to […] The post Lasagna plots in SAS: When spaghetti plots don't suffice appeared first on The DO Loop.

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R Passes SAS in Scholarly Use (finally)

June 8, 2016
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R Passes SAS in Scholarly Use (finally)

Way back in 2012 I published a forecast that showed that the use of R for scholarly publications would likely pass the use of SAS in 2015. But I didn’t believe the forecast since I expected the sharp decline in SAS … Continue reading →

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