"The free development of each is the condition of the war of all against all": Some Paths to the True Knowledge

August 5, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: A 5000+ word attempt to provide real ancestors and support for an imaginary ideology I don't actually accept, drawing on fields in which I am in no way an expert. Contains long quotations from even-longer-dead writers, ...

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In Memoriam Zalmai Shalizi

August 5, 2015
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One summer, when I was a boy, Uncle Zalo tried to teach me to shoot up at his ranch in the New Mexico high country. I was dismal, and I'm pretty sure the phrase "broad side of a barn" crossed his mind. It never crossed his lips, and he was never les...

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Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, July 2015

August 5, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Marc Levinson, The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy Bigger This is by now a contemporary classic, which I should have read years ago. To enjoy it, you need t...

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Experimental Considerations Touching on the Art of Winning Lotteries

August 5, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: Facile moral philosophy, loosely tied to experimental sociology. Via I forget who, Darius Kazemi explaining "How I Won the Lottery". The whole thing absolutely must be watched from beginning to end. Kazemi is, of ...

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Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen

August 5, 2015
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Neyman: Distinguishing tests of statistical hypotheses and tests of significance might have been a lapse of someone’s pen

“Tests of Statistical Hypotheses and Their Use in Studies of Natural Phenomena” by Jerzy Neyman ABSTRACT. Contrary to ideas suggested by the title of the conference at which the present paper was presented, the author is not aware of a conceptual difference between a “test of a statistical hypothesis” and a “test of significance” and uses […]

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August reading

August 5, 2015
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August reading

Here's my (slightly delayed) August reading list:Ahelegbey, A. F., 2015. The econometrics of networks: A review. Working Paper  2015/13, Department of Economics, University of Venice.Clemens, M. A., 2015. The meaning of failed replications: A revi...

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Ternary plots in politics

August 5, 2015
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Ternary plots in politics

This week, I read a post by Nicholas Hamilton about ternary plots that made me think, how this geometric diagram has many different application in science fields. Couple weeks ago, I was reading a book by Donald Saari, who uses ternary charts massively to project election outcomes in different electoral settings. Perhaps, most common, ternary … Read More →

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Orange is the new stat

August 4, 2015
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Orange is the new stat

I've been reading Piper Kerman's Orange Is the New Black, a memoir by a woman who served 11 months in a federal prison.  One of the recurring themes is the author's surprise at the length of the sentences her fellow prisoners are serving, esp...

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Pro Publica’s new Surgeon Scorecards

August 4, 2015
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Skyler Johnson writes: You should definitely weigh in on this… Pro Publica created “Surgeon Scorecards” based upon risk adjusted surgery compilation rates. They used hierarchical modeling via the lmer package in R. For detailed methodology, click the methodology “how we calculated complications” link, then atop that next page click on the detailed methodology to download […] The post Pro Publica’s new Surgeon Scorecards appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Generalised Linear Models in R

August 4, 2015
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Generalised Linear Models in R

Linear models are the bread and butter of statistics, but there is a lot more to it than taking a ruler and drawing a line through a couple of points.Some time ago Rasmus Bååth published an insightful blog article about how such models could be descr...

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Stan Meetup Talk in Ann Arbor this Wednesday (5 Aug 2015)

August 4, 2015
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Stan Meetup Talk in Ann Arbor this Wednesday (5 Aug 2015)

I (Bob) will be presenting an overview of (R)Stan at the Ann Arbor R User Group meetup this Wednesday night (5 August 2015) at 7 PM. To see the abstract and register to attend: RStan: Statistical Modeling Made Easy with Bob Carpenter Wednesday, Aug 5, 2015, 7:00 PM Barracuda Networks317 Maynard St Ann Arbor, MI […] The post Stan Meetup Talk in Ann Arbor this Wednesday (5 Aug 2015) appeared…

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Memories of past JSMs

August 4, 2015
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Memories of past JSMs

The Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) are the big statistics meetings in North America, “joint” among the American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, International Biometric Society (ENAR and WNAR), Statistical Society of Canada, and others. JSM 2015 is next week, in Seattle. In anticipation, I thought I’d write down some of my main memories of […]

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Memories of past JSMs

August 4, 2015
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Memories of past JSMs

The Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) are the big statistics meetings in North America, “joint” among the American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, International Biometric Society (ENAR and WNAR), Statistical Society of Canada, and others. JSM 2015 is next week, in Seattle. In anticipation, I thought I’d write down some of my main memories of […]

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Ternary plots in politics

August 4, 2015
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Ternary plots in politics

When we study elections with this geometric figure, each point of the triangle intuitively represents 3 coordinates.

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Ternary plots in politics

August 4, 2015
By
Ternary plots in politics

When we study elections with this geometric figure, each point of the triangle intuitively represents 3 coordinates, parties, or candidates. This week, I skin a post by Nicholas Hamilton about ternary plots that made me think, how this geometric d...

Read more »

Ternary plots in politics

August 4, 2015
By
Ternary plots in politics

When we study elections with this geometric figure, each point of the triangle intuitively represents 3 coordinates, parties, or candidates. This week, I skin a post by Nicholas Hamilton about ternary plots that made me think, how this geometric d...

Read more »

Ternary plots in politics

August 4, 2015
By
Ternary plots in politics

When we study elections with this geometric figure, each point of the triangle intuitively represents 3 coordinates, parties, or candidates. This week, I skin a post by Nicholas Hamilton about ternary plots that made me think, how this geometric d...

Read more »

Ternary plots in politics

August 4, 2015
By
Ternary plots in politics

When we study elections with this geometric figure, each point of the triangle intuitively represents 3 coordinates, parties, or candidates. This week, I skin a post by Nicholas Hamilton about ternary plots that made me think, how this geometric d...

Read more »

Ternary plots in politics

August 4, 2015
By
Ternary plots in politics

When we study elections with this geometric figure, each point of the triangle intuitively represents 3 coordinates, parties, or candidates. This week, I skin a post by Nicholas Hamilton about ternary plots that made me think, how this geometric d...

Read more »

Ternary plots in politics

August 4, 2015
By
Ternary plots in politics

When we study elections with this geometric figure, each point of the triangle intuitively represents 3 coordinates, parties, or candidates. This week, I skin a post by Nicholas Hamilton about ternary plots that made me think, how this geometric d...

Read more »

Ternary plots in politics

August 4, 2015
By
Ternary plots in politics

When we study elections with this geometric figure, each point of the triangle intuitively represents 3 coordinates, parties, or candidates. This week, I skin a post by Nicholas Hamilton about ternary plots that made me think, how this geometric d...

Read more »

Sensemaking in R: A Plenitude of Models Makes for Good Storytelling

August 3, 2015
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Sensemaking in R: A Plenitude of Models Makes for Good Storytelling

"Sensemaking is a motivated, continuous effort to understand connections (which can be among people, places, and events) in order to anticipate their trajectories and act effectively."- Gary Klein, Brian Moon & Robert HoffmanMaking Sense of Sensema...

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Bayesian meta-analysis provides high-precision estimate of cosmic impact event at ~12,800 years before 1950

August 3, 2015
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Bayesian meta-analysis provides high-precision estimate of cosmic impact event at ~12,800 years before 1950

A recently published article in PNAS reports a Bayesian meta-analysis of data from 354 samples from 23 geological sites on 4 continents, yielding a 95% credible interval from 12,835 to 12,735 years before 1950 for the cosmic impact event that formed th...

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