## Car crash stats revisited: My measurement errors

November 3, 2014
By

Last week, I created revised versions of graphs of car crash statistics by state (including an interactive version), from a post by Mona Chalabi at 538. Since I was working on those at the last minute in the middle of the night, to be included as an example in a lecture on creating effective figures […]

## Let’s Do Some MORE Hierarchical Bayes Choice Modeling in R!

November 3, 2014
By

R enables us to "test drive" statistical models by running simulations and analyzing actual data. We can look at the output and get some sense of how the whole thing works. The goal is to provide a realistic application that is not too difficult to fol...

## My talk today at the University of Michigan, 4pm at the Institute for Social Research

November 3, 2014
By

Generalizing from sample to population Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics, Columbia University We’ve been hearing a lot about “data” recently, but data are generally a means to an end, with the goal being to learn about some population of interest. How do we generalize from sample to population? The process seems a bit mysterious, especially […] The post My talk today at the University of Michigan, 4pm at the Institute…

## Puissance et tests statistiques (simples)

November 3, 2014
By
$\theta$

Pour comprendre la notion de puissance dans un test statistique, reprenons Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences de Jacob Cohen. Comme il le rappelle Fisher (dans The Design of Experiments) ne souhaite pas “prouver” qu’une hypothèse (appelée H_0) est valide, mais il espère, en réalité, rejeter l’hypothèse en question (c’est ce que rappellent d’ailleurs Hubbard et Bayarri en 2003). Autrement dit, supposons que l’on cherche à faire un test…

## On deck this week

November 3, 2014
By

Mon: My talk today at the University of Michigan, 4pm at the Institute for Social Research Tues: Social research is not the same as health research: Macartan Humphreys gives new guidelines for ethics in social science research Wed: “The Firth bias correction, penalization, and weakly informative priors: A case for log-F priors in logistic and […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## On deck this month

November 3, 2014
By

My talk today at the University of Michigan, 4pm at the Institute for Social Research Social research is not the same as health research: Macartan Humphreys gives new guidelines for ethics in social science research “The Firth bias correction, penalization, and weakly informative priors: A case for log-F priors in logistic and related regressions” I’m […] The post On deck this month appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Recent additions to the SAS/IML file exchange

November 3, 2014
By

It has been three months since the introduction of the SAS/IML File Exchange, so I thought I'd give a short update on recent submissions and activity. The web site administrators have created an easy-to-remember shortcut to the File Exchange: http://communities.sas.com/sas-iml-file-exchange There have been eight new articles submitted to the File […]

## Sunday data/statistics link roundup (11/2/14)

November 3, 2014
By

Better late than never! If you have something cool to share, please continue to email it to me with subject line "Sunday links". A DrivenData is a Kaggle-like site but for social good. I like the principle of using data for societal benefit, since there are so many ways it seems to be used for nefarious purposes

## A Tribute to Lawrence R. Klein

November 2, 2014
By

(Remarks given at the Klein Legacy Dinner, October 24, 2014, Lower Egyptian Gallery, University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology.)I owe an immense debt of gratitude to Larry Klein, who helped guide, support and inspire my career f...

## How generous has the international community’s Ebola response been?

November 2, 2014
By

Discussion on generosity of international donors. How generous has the international community’s Ebola response been?

## Confusing Charts

November 2, 2014
By

Today's on-line edition of The New Zealand Herald includes an article titled "Junior rugby putting little kids in harm's way". The article included two charts, presented one after the other, and explicitly intended to be viewed as a a pair. Here t...

## Ray Could Write

November 2, 2014
By

Now he is scattered among a hundred cities And wholly given over to unfamiliar affections, To find his happiness in another kind of wood And be punished under a foreign code of conscience. . . . You were silly like us; your gift survived it all: For chess makes nothing happen: it survives In the […] The post Ray Could Write appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

## Tuning Laplaces Demon IV

November 2, 2014
By

This is the last post of testing Laplaces Demon algorithms. In the last algorithms there are some which are completely skipped because they are not suitable for the problem. Reversible Jump is for variable selection. Sequential Metropolis-within-Gibbs,...

## This is where they publish the stuff that can’t make it into Psychological Science

November 1, 2014
By

N=22 (link from here and here). I was unhappy to see that the two news articles took the study at face value. Photoplethysmograph, indeed. As Daniel Kahneman might say, “You have no choice but to accept that the major conclusions of these studi...

## A Montana resident just sent me this

November 1, 2014
By

He got it in the mail and writes, “I don’t recall receiving the original mailer, but I probably would have just tossed it with the rest of the election mail I was getting.” P.S. Wouldn’t it be funny if this letter was actually sent from someone in the political science department at Montana State University, […] The post A Montana resident just sent me this appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## Exploration of Letter Make Up of English Words

October 31, 2014
By

This blog post will do a quick exploration of the grapheme make up of words in the English. Specifically we will use R and the qdap package to answer 3 questions: What is the distribution of word lengths (number of … Continue reading →

October 31, 2014
By

From my "Recently Read" list:Born, B. and J. Breitung, 2014. Testing for serial correlation in fixed-effects panel data models. Econometric Reviews, in press.Enders, W. and Lee. J., 2011. A unit root test using a Fourier series to approximate smoo...

## Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

October 31, 2014
By

Memory Lane: 3 years ago. Oxford Jail (also called Oxford Castle) is an entirely fitting place to be on (and around) Halloween! Moreover, rooting around this rather lavish set of jail cells (what used to be a single cell is now a dressing room) is every bit as conducive to philosophical reflection as is exile on Elba! (It […]

## Oxford Gaol: Statistical Bogeymen

October 31, 2014
By

Memory Lane: 3 years ago. Oxford Jail (also called Oxford Castle) is an entirely fitting place to be on (and around) Halloween! Moreover, rooting around this rather lavish set of jail cells (what used to be a single cell is now a dressing room) is every bit as conducive to philosophical reflection as is exile on Elba! (It […]

## Boo! Who’s afraid of availability bias?

October 31, 2014
By

Just in time for Halloween: I came across this 2-minute video by Brian Zikmund-Fisher, a professor of Health Behavior and Health Education at the University of Michigan, and I took a look because I was curious what he had to say. The video is called “Why aren’t we more scared of measles?” and has the […] The post Boo! Who’s afraid of availability bias? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## The next power of 2 and other tricks with logarithms

October 31, 2014
By

The other day I was doing some computations that caused me to wonder, "What is the smallest power of 2 that is greater than a given number?" The mathematics is straightforward. Given a number n, find the least value of k such that 2k ≥ n or, equivalently, k ≥ […]

## Jobs at Amazon

October 31, 2014
By

I do not normally post job adverts, but this was very specifically targeted to “applied time series candidates” so I thought it might be of sufficient interest to readers of this blog. Here is an excerpt from an email I received from someone at Amazon: Amazon is aggressively recruiting in the data sciences, and we […]

## Interactive plot of car crash stats

October 31, 2014
By

I spent the afternoon making a D3-based interactive version of the graphs of car crash statistics by state that I’d discussed yesterday: my attempt to improve on the graphs in Mona Chalabi‘s post at 538. See it in action here. Code on gith...