## Albedo-boy is back!

May 24, 2016
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New story here. Background here and here. The post Albedo-boy is back! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## Sometimes there’s friction for a reason

May 24, 2016
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Thinking about my post on Theranos yesterday it occurred to me that one thing that’s great about all of the innovation and technology coming out of places like Silicon Valley is the tremendous reduction of friction in our lives. With Uber it’s much...

## “Lots of hype around pea milk, with little actual scrutiny”

May 23, 2016
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Paul Alper writes: Had no idea that “Pea Milk” existed, let alone controversial. Learn something new every day. Indeed, I’d never heard of it either. I guess “milk” is now a generic word for any white sugary drink? Sort of like “tea” is a generic word for any drink made from a powder steeped in […] The post “Lots of hype around pea milk, with little actual scrutiny” appeared first…

## Principal Components Regression, Pt. 2: Y-Aware Methods

May 23, 2016
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In our previous note, we discussed some problems that can arise when using standard principal components analysis (specifically, principal components regression) to model the relationship between independent (x) and dependent (y) variables. In this note, we present some dimensionality reduction techniques that alleviate some of those problems, in particular what we call Y-Aware Principal Components … Continue reading Principal Components Regression, Pt. 2: Y-Aware Methods

## Listening to Your Sentences, II

May 23, 2016
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Here's a continuation of this recent post (for students) on listening to writing.OK, you say, Martin Amis interviews are entertaining, but Martin Amis is not a mere mortal, so what's the practical writing advice for the rest of us? Read this, from...

## Splitsville for Thiel and Kasparov?

May 23, 2016
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The tech zillionaire and the chess champion were always a bit of an odd couple, and I’ve felt for awhile that it was just as well that they never finished that book they were talking about. But given that each of them has taken a second career in political activism, I can’t imagine that they’re […] The post Splitsville for Thiel and Kasparov? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

## On deck this week

May 23, 2016
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Mon: Splitsville for Thiel and Kasparov? Tues: Here’s something I know nothing about Wed: The “power pose” of the 6th century B.C. Thurs: “99.60% for women and 99.58% for men, P < 0.05.” Fri: Stan on the beach Sat: Michael Lacour vs John Bargh and Amy Cuddy Sun: Should he major in political science and […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Tip of the day: don’t be Theranosed

May 23, 2016
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Theranos (v): to spin stories that appeal to data while not presenting any data To be Theranosed is to fall for scammers who tell stories appealing to data but do not present any actual data. This is worse than story time, in which the storyteller starts out with real data but veers off mid-stream into unsubstantiated froth, hoping you and I got carried away by the narrative flow. Theranos (n):…

## How to fit a variety of logistic regression models in SAS

May 23, 2016
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SAS software can fit many different kinds of regression models. In fact a common question on the SAS Support Communities is "how do I fit a <name> regression model in SAS?" And within that category, the most frequent questions involve how to fit various logistic regression models in SAS. There […] The post How to fit a variety of logistic regression models in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

## Bayes 2016

May 23, 2016
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Earlier this week I was at the Bayes 2016 meeting, in lovely Leuven. Although I've been to Belgium quite a few times before, this was my first trip to Leuven \$-\$ somebody who used to work at UCL once told me that they didn't really like the place,...

## Row-Level Thinking vs. Cube Thinking

May 23, 2016
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Our mental model of a dataset changes the way we ask questions. One aspect of that is the shape of the data (long or wide); an equally important issue is whether we think of the data as a collection of rows of numbers that we can aggregate bottom-up, or as a complete dataset that we can slice top-down to ask … Continue reading Row-Level Thinking vs. Cube Thinking

## A Quick Illustration of Pre-Testing Bias

May 23, 2016
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The statistical and econometric literature on the properties of "preliminary-test" (or "pre-test") estimation strategies is large and well established. These strategies arise when we proceed in a sequential manner when drawing inferences about paramete...

## Not So Standard Deviations Episode 16 – The Silicon Valley Episode

May 23, 2016
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Roger and Hilary are back, with Hilary broadcasting from the west coast. Hilary and Roger discuss the possibility of scaling data analysis and how that may or may not work for companies like Palantir. Also, the latest on Theranos and the release of dat...

## Update On Theranos

May 23, 2016
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I think it’s fair to say that things for Theranos, the Silicon Valley blood testing company, are not looking up. From the Wall Street Journal (via The Verge): Theranos has voided two years of results from its Edison blood-testing machines, issuin...

## Martin Amis on How to Write a Great Sentence

May 22, 2016
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It's been a while since I did a piece on good writing, for students.   In an old post I said "Listen to your words; push your prose toward poetry."  That's perhaps a bit much -- you don't need to write poetry, but you do need to lis...

## occupancy rules

May 22, 2016
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$occupancy rules$

While the last riddle on The Riddler was rather anticlimactic, namely to find the mean of the number Y of empty bins in a uniform multinomial with n bins and m draws, with solution [which still has a link with e in that the fraction of empty bins converges to e⁻¹ when n=m], this led […]

## Now that’s what I call a power pose!

May 22, 2016
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John writes: See below for your humour file or blogging on a quiet day. . . . Perhaps you could start a competition for the wackiest real-life mangling of statistical concepts (restricted to a genuine academic setting?). On 15 Feb 2016, at 5:25 PM, [****] wrote: Pick of the bunch from tomorrow’s pile of applications […] The post Now that’s what I call a power pose! appeared first on Statistical…

## BCEA 2.2-3 is out

May 22, 2016
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I think the newest release of BCEA, our R package to standardise and post-process the output of a health economic model, is now available from CRAN \$-\$ in fact, the source code is also available here. The package is rather stable, so the...

## Source for the marketAgent R package

May 22, 2016
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I recently gave a talk at the R in Finance conference in which I introduced the marketAgent package for R. Here is the source for the package if you’d like to play with it: marketAgent_0.000.tar I’ll be giving more details of the talk real soon now.   Update:  The Portfolio Probe website now has a […] The post Source for the marketAgent R package appeared first on Burns Statistics.

## “Stop the Polling Insanity”

May 21, 2016
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Norman Ornstein and Alan Abramowitz warn against over-interpreting poll fluctuations: In this highly charged election, it’s no surprise that the news media see every poll like an addict sees a new fix. That is especially true of polls that show large and unexpected changes. Those polls get intense coverage and analysis, adding to their presumed […] The post “Stop the Polling Insanity” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Nick and Nate and Mark on Leicester and Trump

May 20, 2016
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Just following up on our post the other day on retrospective evaluations of probabilistic predictions: For more on Leicester City, see Nick Goff on Why did bookmakers lose on Leicester? and What price SHOULD Leicester have been? (forwarded to me by commenter Iggy). For more on Trump, see Nate Silver on How I Acted Like […] The post Nick and Nate and Mark on Leicester and Trump appeared first on…

## Simulating a Weibull conditional on time-to-event is greater than a given time

May 20, 2016
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Recently, I had to simulate a time-to-event of subjects who have been on a study, are still ongoing at the time of a data cut, but who are still at risk of an event (e.g. progressive disease, cardiac event, death). This requires the simulation of a con...

## Hazard Functions for U.S. Expansions

May 20, 2016
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Glenn Rudebusch has a very nice 2016 FRBSF Letter, "Will the Economic Recovery Die of Old Age?".  He draws on perspective and results from our joint work of 25 years ago (including a paper we did with Dan Sichel -- see below), and he applies them ...