Forget about pdf: this looks much better, it makes all my own papers look like kids’ crayon drawings by comparison.

May 3, 2015
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Mark Palko points me to this webpage which presents a recent research paper by Joanna Shepherd and Michael Kang. I have no comment on the research—I haven’t had a chance to read the paper—but I wanted to express how impressed I was about the presentation. It starts with a dedicated url just for this paper […] The post Forget about pdf: this looks much better, it makes all my own…

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Artificial Intelligence and Economics

May 2, 2015
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Artificial Intelligence and Economics

There are lots of articles online of the form - humanity has built some amazing things, so why haven't we produced an artificial intelligence? These articles (here's an example) often include some discussion of a task that even a very...

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Graphics Window for MacOS and RStudio Server

May 2, 2015
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It's been a recurring headache to get graphics windows to open seamlessly in MacOS and Windows, running RStudio locally and RStudio Server. A solution has been proposed by Professor David Zeitler. He has modified the openGraph function in the DBDA2E-ut...

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SPDEVPPI (2)

May 2, 2015
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Following up on our paper, which I've mentioned in the previous post, we've also updated our BCEA package to implement our SPDE-INLA method for the computation of the EVPPI. This is currently a very advanced beta version (available for download here or...

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Which of these classes should he take?

May 2, 2015
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Jake Humphries writes: I for many years wanted to pursue medicine but after recently completing a master of public health, I caught the statistics bug. I need to complete the usual minimum prerequisites for graduate study in statistics (calculus through multivariable calculus plus linear algebra) but want to take additional math courses as highly competitive […] The post Which of these classes should he take? appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Should I use premium Diesel? Result: No

May 2, 2015
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Should I use premium Diesel? Result: No

A while ago I had a post: 'Should I use premium Diesel? Setup. Since that time the data has been acquired. This post describes the results.DataData is registered by me in 2014 and 2015. 2014 has standard Diesel, while 2015 has premium. Both are fr...

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Reading for the Merry Month of May

May 1, 2015
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Reading for the Merry Month of May

While you're dancing around the Maypole (or whatever else it is that you get up to), my recommendations are:Claeskens, G., J. Magnus, A. Vasnev, and W. Wang, 2014. The forecast combination puzzle: A simple theoretical explanation. Tinbergen Institute D...

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Hypothesis testing is only mostly useless

May 1, 2015
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Hypothesis testing is only mostly useless

UPDATE May 4: Nature recently reported the outcome of an attempt to replicate 100 results from psychology research. They characterize the findings as "worrying." In my previous article I argued that classical statistical inference is only mostly wron...

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Rafa’s citations above replacement in statistics journals is crazy high.

May 1, 2015
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Rafa’s citations above replacement in statistics journals is crazy high.

Editor's note:  I thought it would be fun to do some bibliometrics on a Friday. This is super hacky and the CAR/Y stat should not be taken seriously.  I downloaded data on the 400 most cited papers between 2000-2010 in some statistical journals from Web of Science. Here is a boxplot of the average number

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“The general problem I have with noninformatively-derived Bayesian probabilities is that they tend to be too strong.”

May 1, 2015
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We interrupt our usual programming of mockery of buffoons to discuss a bit of statistical theory . . . Continuing from yesterday‘s quotation of my 2012 article in Epidemiology: Like many Bayesians, I have often represented classical confidence intervals as posterior probability intervals and interpreted one-sided p-values as the posterior probability of a positive effect. […] The post “The general problem I have with noninformatively-derived Bayesian probabilities is that they…

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Parametric Inference: The Power Function of the Test

May 1, 2015
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Parametric Inference: The Power Function of the Test

In Statistics, we model random phenomenon and make conclusions about its population. For example, in an experiment of determining the true heights of the students in the university. Suppose we take sample from the population of the students, and consid...

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96% Error in “Expert” Testimony Based on Probability of Hair Matches: It’s all Junk!

May 1, 2015
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96% Error in “Expert” Testimony Based on Probability of Hair Matches: It’s all Junk!

Imagine. The New York Times reported a few days ago that the FBI erroneously identified criminals 96% of the time based on probability assessments using forensic hair samples (up until 2000). Sometimes the hair wasn’t even human, it might have come from a dog, a cat or a fur coat!  I posted on  the unreliability of hair forensics a few […]

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Le Monde puzzle [#909]

April 30, 2015
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Le Monde puzzle [#909]

Another of those “drop-a-digit” Le Monde mathematical puzzle: Find all integers n with 3 or 4 digits, no exterior zero digit, and a single interior zero digit, such that removing that zero digit produces a divider of x. As in puzzle #904, I made use of the digin R function: and simply checked all integers […]

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Introduction to Applied Econometrics With R

April 30, 2015
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Introduction to Applied Econometrics With R

I came across a January post from David Smith at Revolution Analytics, in his Revolutions blog. It's titled, An Introduction to Applied Econometrics With R, and it refers to a very useful resource that's been put together by Bruno Rodrigues of the Univ...

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There are 6 ways to get rejected from PLOS: (1) theft, (2) sexual harassment, (3) running an experiment without a control group, (4) keeping a gambling addict away from the casino, (5) chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings, and (6) having no male co-authors

April 30, 2015
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This story is pretty horrifying/funny. But the strangest thing was this part: [The author] and her colleague have appealed to the unnamed journal, which belongs to the PLoS family . . . I thought PLOS published just about everything! This is not a slam on PLOS. Arxiv publishes everything too, and Arxiv is great. The […] The post There are 6 ways to get rejected from PLOS: (1) theft, (2)…

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The hardest thing about teaching statistics

April 30, 2015
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The hardest thing about teaching statistics

(Note: this post should probably be titled "Quantitative Methods of Curricula Planning" but I thought the current title would draw more interest–though they would both lose out to "These Weird Approaches To Lesson Planning Will Leave You Speechless") Suppose you… Continue reading →

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Applied Econometrics – 4 Volume Set

April 30, 2015
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Applied Econometrics – 4 Volume Set

Back in 2012 I posted about a 4-volume set of readings, titled The Rise of Econometrics, edited by Duo Qin, and published by Taylor and Francis. That set appeared in January 2013.In response to a comment on that post, Bill Greene has recently...

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Figuring Out Learning Objectives the Hard Way

April 30, 2015
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When building the Genomic Data Science Specialization (which starts in June!) we had to figure out the learning objectives for each course. We initially set our ambitions high, but as you can see in this video below, Steven Salzberg brought us back to ...

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Good, mediocre, and bad p-values

April 30, 2015
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From my 2012 article in Epidemiology: In theory the p-value is a continuous measure of evidence, but in practice it is typically trichotomized approximately into strong evidence, weak evidence, and no evidence (these can also be labeled highly significant, marginally significant, and not statistically significant at conventional levels), with cutoffs roughly at p=0.01 and 0.10. […] The post Good, mediocre, and bad p-values appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Nice chart from the neck down

April 30, 2015
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Nice chart from the neck down

I was drawn to this Wall Street Journal chart because of the blue columns. The blue color solves a common problem in time-series plots when the time axis is incomplete. The first quarter of 2015 is dangling. The article is...

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Wakefield: Random Data Set (Part II)

April 30, 2015
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Wakefield: Random Data Set (Part II)

This post is part II of a series detailing the GitHub package, wakefield, for generating random data sets. The First Post (part I) was a test run to gauge user interest. I received positive feedback and some ideas for improvements, … Continue reading →

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Wakefield: Random Data Set (Part II)

April 30, 2015
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Wakefield: Random Data Set (Part II)

This post is part II of a series detailing the GitHub package, wakefield, for generating random data sets. The First Post (part I) was a test run to gauge user interest. I received positive feedback and some ideas for improvements, … Continue reading →

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Modeling the Latent Structure That Shapes Brand Learning

April 30, 2015
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Modeling the Latent Structure That Shapes Brand Learning

What is a brand? Metaphorically, the brand is the white sphere in the middle of this figure, that is, the ball surrounded by the radiating black cones. Of course, no ball has been drawn, just the conic thorns positioned so that we construct the sphere ...

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