Bayes, credit scoring and terrorism

June 7, 2013
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Bayes, credit scoring and terrorism

Once again, my neighbor Corey did publish a very interesting post on his blog http://bayesianbiologist.com/… on how likely the NSA program will catch a terrorist (a real one). I was working on something similar last weeks, with Stéphane Tufféry, for our chapter, entitled Statistical Learning in Actuarial Science. The idea was to show credit scoring techniques, from logistic regression, classification trees, random forests, etc. Of course, it is more boring, since…

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“Happy Money: The Science of Smarter Spending”

June 7, 2013
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“Happy Money:  The Science of Smarter Spending”

Sometimes I get books in the mail with titles like, Statistics for Everyone, or Whassup with American Politics?, and I don’t know what to say about them because I’m clearly not their target audience: from my work, I already pretty much know everything that’s going to be in those books. Yesterday, though, what came in [...]The post “Happy Money: The Science of Smarter Spending” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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R: Data Class Conversion

June 7, 2013
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Data in R can be converted from one class to the other. The function is prefixed with as. then followed by the name of the data class that we wish to convert to. Data class in R are the following:numeric - as.numericvector - as.vectorcharacter - as.cha...

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Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)

June 7, 2013
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Anything Tests Can do, CIs do Better; CIs Do Anything Better than Tests?* (reforming the reformers cont.)

Having reblogged the 5/17/12 post on “reforming the reformers” yesterday, I thought I should reblog its follow-up: 6/2/12. Consider again our one-sided Normal test T+, with null H0: μ < μ0 vs μ >μ0  and  μ0 = 0,  α=.025, and σ = 1, but let n = 25. So M is statistically significant only if it exceeds .392. Suppose M (the […]

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How likely is the NSA PRISM program to catch a terrorist?

June 7, 2013
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How likely is the NSA PRISM program to catch a terrorist?

Recent revelations about PRISM, the NSA’s massive program of surveillance of civilian communications have caused quite a stir. And rightfully so, as it appears that the agency has been granted warrantless direct access to just about any form of digital communication engaged in by American citizens, and that their access to such data has been […]

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Leahy Versus Albedoman and the Moneygoround, Part One

June 6, 2013
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Leahy Versus Albedoman and the Moneygoround, Part One

Edward Wyatt reports: Now the Obama administration is cracking down on what many call patent trolls, shell companies that exist merely for the purpose of asserting that they should be paid . . . “The United States patent system is vital for our economic growth, job creation, and technological advance,” [Senator] Leahy said in a [...]The post Leahy Versus Albedoman and the Moneygoround, Part One appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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R: Inputting Data in Matrix Format

June 6, 2013
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Matrix in R is formed using matrix, rbind, or cbind function. These functions have the following descriptions:matrix - used to transform a concatenated data into matrix form of compatible dimensions. rbind - short for row bind, that binds a conca...

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Dampened by Google

June 6, 2013
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Dampened by Google

Robert Kosara has a great summary of the "banking to 45 degrees" practice first proposed by Bill Cleveland (link). Roughly speaking, the idea is that the slope of a line chart should be close to 45 degrees for the best...

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VIS Tutorials and the Industry and Government Experiences Track

June 6, 2013
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The deadline for tutorial proposals for VIS 2013 is coming up. There are a few changes from last year. Also, there is a new Industry and Government Experiences Track at the conference this year. Tutorials There are two main changes to tutorials: first, we no longer accept full-day tutorials, only half-day. The goal is to bring in more variety and to focus the tutorials more on specific things rather than being…

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NeuroKnitting: Knitting a Personalized Scarf from Brainwave Activity

June 5, 2013
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NeuroKnitting: Knitting a Personalized Scarf from Brainwave Activity

NeuroKnitting [knitic.com] by Varvara Guljajeva, Mar Canet, and Sebastian Mealla consists of a collection of knitted garments that represent the wearer's affective and cognitive states while listening to Bach's Goldberg Variations' aria and its first ...

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Eurovision Tracker: the Twitter Buzz and Conversations per Country

June 5, 2013
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Eurovision Tracker: the Twitter Buzz and Conversations per Country

Eurovision Tracker [brandwatch.com] by social analytics company Brandwatch provides a visual overview of the Twitter buzz during the live Eurovision final that took place on 18th May. In this streamgraph visualization, each colored stream represent...

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The Frisch–Waugh–Lovell Theorem for Both OLS and 2SLS

June 5, 2013
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The Frisch–Waugh–Lovell Theorem for Both OLS and 2SLS

The Frisch–Waugh–Lovell (FWL) theorem is of great practical importance for econometrics. FWL establishes that it is possible to re-specify a linear regression model in terms of orthogonal complements. In other words, it permits econometricians to partial out right-hand-side, or control, variables. This is useful in a variety of settings. For example, there may be cases […]

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A story of fake-data checking being used to shoot down a flawed analysis at the Farm Credit Agency

June 5, 2013
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Austin Kelly writes: While reading your postings [or here] on the subject of testing your model by running fake data I was reminded of the fact that I got one of these kinds of tests actually published in a GAO report back in the day. Reading your posts on Unz and political vs. economic discourse [...]The post A story of fake-data checking being used to shoot down a flawed analysis…

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You sure, Mike?

June 5, 2013
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You sure, Mike?

Holly Baxter writes an interesting article on the Michael Douglas/HPV story (widely covered in the past few days: eg here, here or here) in today's Guardian, in which she basically tries to steal our thunder...  ;-) Holly argues tha...

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Cutting data won’t make cutting weight easier

June 5, 2013
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In my new book, I have a chapter on interpreting the statistics of obesity. Andrew Sullivan (link) recently pointed to a Nature article discussing an aspect of the controversy around these numbers. The bone of contention is the shape of the mortality curve. It has been thought that the curve is monotonic increasing, meaning that the higher your BMI, the higher the mortality rate. But survey data in the U.S.…

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Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests? Reforming the Reformers (Reblog 5/17/12)

June 5, 2013
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Do CIs Avoid Fallacies of Tests?  Reforming the Reformers (Reblog 5/17/12)

The one method that enjoys the approbation of the New Reformers is that of confidence intervals. The general recommended interpretation is essentially this: For a reasonably high choice of confidence level, say .95 or .99, values of µ within the observed interval are plausible, those outside implausible. Geoff Cumming, a leading statistical reformer in psychology, has […]

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Using simulation to compute a power curve

June 5, 2013
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Using simulation to compute a power curve

Last week I showed how to use simulation to estimate the power of a statistical test. I used the two-sample t test to illustrate the technique. In my example, the difference between the means of two groups was 1.2, and the simulation estimated a probability of 0.72 that the t [...]

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New R Package for BEST (Bayesian ESTimation supersedes the t test)

June 5, 2013
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A completely re-packaged version of the BEST software (from the article, "Bayesian estimation supersedes the t test") has been prepared by Michael E. Meredith. Mike is a key member of the Wildlife Conservation Society in Malaysia. For his new R package...

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Daily bias in the mail

June 4, 2013
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David Spiegelhalter writes in his blog about this news headline on the Daily Mail (DM)'s website. According to the article, statins can weaken muscle and joints, raising the problem by up to 20%. As David points out, this claim is not justifi...

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Interrogating p-values

June 4, 2013
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Interrogating p-values

This article is a discussion of a paper by Greg Francis for a special issue, edited by E. J. Wagenmakers, of the Journal of Mathematical Psychology. Here’s what I wrote: Much of statistical practice is an effort to reduce or deny variation and uncertainty. The reduction is done through standardization, replication, and other practices of [...]The post Interrogating p-values appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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How old is the oldest person you know?

June 4, 2013
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How old is the oldest person you know?

Last week, we had a discussion with some colleagues about the fact that – in order to prepare for the SOA exams – we did not have time (so far) to mention results on extreme values in our actuarial program. I did gave an introduction in my nonlife actuarial models class, but it was only an introduction, in three hours, in order to illustrate reinsurance pricing. And I told my…

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Webinar: Managing Data with R

June 4, 2013
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Webinar: Managing Data with R

Before you can analyze data, it must be in the right form. Join Revolution Analytics and me this June 21st for a 4-hour webinar that shows how to perform the most commonly used data management tasks in R. We will work through … Continue reading →

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UseR 2013

June 4, 2013
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UseR 2013

Although the programme is quite interesting, I am not really involved in this conference (in fact I'm not even going $-$ even though, sometimes, I think it would be nice to spend the whole summer away at conferences!).But Vir has just put this pic...

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