Clusters Powerful Enough to Generate Their Own Subspaces

May 20, 2015
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Clusters Powerful Enough to Generate Their Own Subspaces

Cluster are groupings that have no external label. We start with entities described by a set of measurements but no rule for sorting them by type. Mixture modeling makes this point explicit with its equation showing how each measurement is an independe...

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Is it species or is it batch? They are confounded, so we can’t know

May 20, 2015
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In a 2005 OMICS paper, an analysis of human and mouse gene expression microarray measurements from several tissues led the authors to conclude that "any tissue is more similar to any other human tissue examined than to its corresponding mouse tissue". Note that this was a rather surprising result given how similar tissues are between species.

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Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn”

May 20, 2015
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Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn”

Reprinting a classic from 2010: The other day I saw some kids trying to tell knock-knock jokes, The only one they really knew was the one that goes: Knock knock. Who’s there? Banana? Banana who? Knock knock. Who’s there? Banana? Banana who? Knock knock. Who’s there? Orange. Orange who? Orange you glad I didn’t say […] The post Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Shaking up expectations for pension benefits

May 20, 2015
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Shaking up expectations for pension benefits

Ted Ballachine wrote me about his website Pension360 pointing me to a recent attempt at visualizing pension benefits in various retirement systems in the state of Illinois. The link to the blog post is here. One of the things they...

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Direct me to the nuclear Bessels!

May 20, 2015
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Direct me to the nuclear Bessels!

When I was an undergraduate physic major, my favorite professor would start each class with a joke or pun. One day he began class with a paraphrase of a famous quote from the movie Star Trek 4: The Voyage Home (the one with the whales). "Today," my professor said, imitating […] The post Direct me to the nuclear Bessels! appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks

May 19, 2015
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This came up in an email exchange regarding a plan to come up with and evaluate Bayesian prediction algorithms for a medical application: I would not refer to the existing prediction algorithm as frequentist. Frequentist refers to the evaluation of statistical procedures but it doesn’t really say where the estimate or prediction comes from. Rather, […] The post Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Sequential Bayesian inference for time series

May 19, 2015
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Sequential Bayesian inference for time series

Hello hello, I have just arXived a review article, written for ESAIM: Proceedings and Surveys, called Sequential Bayesian inference for implicit hidden Markov models and current limitations. The topic is sequential Bayesian estimation: you want to perform inference (say, parameter inference, or prediction of future observations), taking into account parameter and model uncertainties, using hidden Markov […]

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Sequential Bayesian inference for time series

May 19, 2015
By
Sequential Bayesian inference for time series

Hello hello, I have just arXived a review article, written for ESAIM: Proceedings and Surveys, called Sequential Bayesian inference for implicit hidden Markov models and current limitations. The topic is sequential Bayesian estimation: you want to perform inference (say, parameter inference, or prediction of future observations), taking into account parameter and model uncertainties, using hidden Markov […]

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How Predictable is the English Premier League?

May 19, 2015
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How Predictable is the English Premier League?

The reason why football is so exciting is uncertainty. The outcome of any match or league is unknown, and you get to watch the action unfold without knowing what’s going to happen. Watching matches where you know the score is never exciting. This weekend the English Premier League season will conclude with little fanfare. Bar […]

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Posterior predictive output with Stan

May 19, 2015
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Posterior predictive output with Stan

I continue my Stan experiments with another insurance example. Here I am particular interested in the posterior predictive distribution from only three data points. Or, to put it differently I have a customer of three years and I'd like to predict the ...

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New Alan Turing preprint on Arxiv!

May 19, 2015
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New Alan Turing preprint on Arxiv!

Dan Kahan writes: I know you are on 30-day delay, but since the blog version of you will be talking about Bayesian inference in couple of hours, you might like to look at paper by Turing, who is on 70-yr delay thanks to British declassification system, who addresses the utility of using likelihood ratios for […] The post New Alan Turing preprint on Arxiv! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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I’ve Been Replaced by an Analytics Robot

May 18, 2015
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I’ve Been Replaced by an Analytics Robot

It was only a few years ago when the N.Y. Times declared my job “sexy”.  My old job title of statistician had sounded dull and stodgy, but then it became filled with exciting jargon: I’m a data scientist doing predictive analytics with … Continue reading →

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That time of the year…

May 18, 2015
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That time of the year…

Slightly later than last year, but, like every year, that time is coming. Yes: Eurovision again. From our point of view, it's of course being a lot quieter than last year, although the paper is still going strong. But we've had two nice surprises:...

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Bob Carpenter’s favorite books on GUI design and programming

May 18, 2015
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Bob writes: I would highly recommend two books that changed the way I thought about GUI design (though I’ve read a lot of them): * Jeff Johnson. GUI Bloopers. I read the first edition in book form and the second in draft form (the editor contacted me based on my enthusiastic Amazon feedback, which was […] The post Bob Carpenter’s favorite books on GUI design and programming appeared first on…

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Residual expertise – or why scientists are amateurs at most of science

May 18, 2015
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Editor's note: I have been unsuccessfully attempting to finish a book I started 3 years ago about how and why everyone should get pumped about reading and understanding scientific papers. I've adapted part of one of the chapters into this blogpost. It is pretty raw but hopefully gets the idea across.  An episode of The Daily Show with

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On deck this week

May 18, 2015
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Mon: Bob Carpenter’s favorite books on GUI design and programming Tues: Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks Wed: Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn” Thurs: “Physical Models of Living Systems” Fri: Creativity is the abilit...

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Five Not-to-be-Missed Ideas about Big Data

May 18, 2015
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If I believed in upvoting, I would be clicking my fingers bent on this op-ed article that appeared in the New York Times at the beginning of May. It's written by "data scientists" at Facebook and Google. (Thanks Dean Eckles for drawing my attention to it!) Here are a list of important ideas not to be missed: The things we can measure are never exactly what we care about When…

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Improving the NC vehicle inspection pie chart

May 18, 2015
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Improving the NC vehicle inspection pie chart

North Carolina is a state that requires yearly inspections of motor vehicles. An inspection checks for safety features (lights, brakes, tires,....) as well as checking vehicle emissions to ensure that vehicles meet air pollution standards. I recently had a car inspected and noticed a pie chart on the inspection's summary […] The post Improving the NC vehicle inspection pie chart appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Feedback Loops for Better Talks

May 18, 2015
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Feedback Loops for Better Talks

Feedback loops are a common concept in engineering. When it comes to giving talks, academics would do well to apply some of the thinking behind them to improve their output by observing how it deviates from the desired one, and making changes to adjust it. I’ve been to a number of conferences lately that had a … Continue reading Feedback Loops for Better Talks

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Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, February 2015

May 18, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Paul J. McAuley, Something Coming Through Mind candy science fiction: in which the aliens showed up some years in the narrative past, and offered us access to the same dozen habitable planets orbiting ...

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Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, February 2015

May 17, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Paul J. McAuley, Something Coming Through Mind candy science fiction: in which the aliens showed up some years in the narrative past, and offered us access to the same dozen habitable planets orbiting ...

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“Do we have any recommendations for priors for student_t’s degrees of freedom parameter?”

May 17, 2015
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In response to the above question, Aki writes: I recommend as an easy default option real nu; nu ~ gamma(2,0.1); This was proposed and anlysed by Juárez and Steel (2010) (Model-based clustering of non-Gaussian panel data based on skew-t distributions. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics 28, 52–66.). Juárez and Steel compere this to Jeffreys […] The post “Do we have any recommendations for priors for student_t’s degrees of freedom…

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The paper helicopter experiment

May 17, 2015
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The paper helicopter is one of the devices to explain about design of experiments. The aim is to create the longest flying paper helicopter by means of experimental design.Paper helicopters are a nice example, because they are cheap to make, easy to te...

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