Abhinav takes us to this chart: Only in politics. *** A co-worker reminds me of this gem by Fox News a few years back:

Jeremy Fox writes: You’ve probably seen this [by Matthew Hankins]. . . . Everyone else on Twitter already has. It’s a graph of the frequency with which the phrase “marginally significant” occurs in association with different P values. Apparently it’s real data, from a Google Scholar search, though I haven’t tried to replicate the search […]The post “Marginally significant” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

I aim to commit statistical sin. I’m going to accept the null hypothesis for no other reason than because I “failing to reject it”. Having tarnished my reputation with that, I’ll finish by ignoring the only data available and ba...

This has to do with the ISBA Biostats section (I suppose it will be even more, if I am elected to the post of Program Chair, but I'll try and be involved even if I don't win!): the next Bayesian Biostatistics Conference has just been announced and will...

Over twitter, Jeff Harrison @mrjeffharrison shouted "Story time!" at this Wall Street Journal report on a Citibank/LinkedIn survey of working men and women. "Story time" is the trick of reporting some statistics, then spinning a story that has little or nothing to do with the data just presented. This tactic is effective as some readers erroneously assume that the story is supported by the data. A good illustration is this…

A reinsurance case study for tomorrow’s class. The goal will be to price some nonproportional reinsurance contract, for business interruption claims. Consider the following dataset, > library(gdata) > db=read.xls( + "http://perso.univ-rennes1.fr/arthur.charpentier/SIN_1985_2000-PE.xls", + sheet=1) Content type 'application/vnd.ms-excel' length 183808 bytes (179 Kb) open URL ================================================== downloaded 179 Kb As for any (standard) insurance contract, there are two parts in the pricing the expected number of claims the average cost of individual…

We recently hosted the first ever Simply Statistics Unconference on the Future of Statistics. In preparing for the event, we learned a lot about how to organize such an event and frankly we wished there had been a bit more … Continue reading →

Hal Pashler wrote in about a recent paper, “Labor Market Returns to Early Childhood Stimulation: a 20-year Followup to an Experimental Intervention in Jamaica,” by Paul Gertler, James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto, Arianna Zanolini, Christel Vermeerch, Susan Walker, Susan M. Chang, and Sally Grantham-McGregor. Here’s Pashler: Dan Willingham tweeted: @DTWillingham: RCT from Jamaica: Big effects 20 […]The post How much do we trust a new claim that early childhood stimulation raised…

There is no holy grail in trading instead there are strategies that work for a while or in a specific market environment. The role of the analyst is therefore twofold. First find a good trading strategy, second find the right environment for this strategy. The present post focuses on the latter. More specifically it aims […]

Today, I want to explain the commission’s functionality build in to Systematic Investor Toolbox(SIT) “share” back-test. At each re-balance time the capital is allocated given the weight such that For example, if weight is 100% (i.e. fully invested) and capital = $100 and price = $10 then The period return is equal to The total […]

The Stan meeting today reminded me of Joel Spolsky’s recasting of the Yiddish joke about Shlemiel the Painter. Joel retold it on his blog, Joel on Software, in the post Back to Basics: Shlemiel gets a job as a street painter, painting the dotted lines down the middle of the road. On the first day […]The post Shlemiel the Software Developer and Unknown Unknowns appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

This morning, I was working with Julie, a student of mine, coming from Rennes, on mortality tables. Actually, we work on genealogical datasets from a small region in Québec, and we can observe a lot of volatiliy. If I borrow one of her graph, we get something like Since we have some missing data, we wanted to use some Generalized Nonlinear Models. So let us see how to get a…