## Original source code for Apple II DOS

November 13, 2013
By

Someone needs to put this on GitHub right now. Thanks Paul Laughton for your donation of this superb collection of early to mid-1978 documents including the letters, agreements, specifications (including hand-written code and schematics), and two original source code listing for the … Continue reading →

## How to compute the incomplete beta function in SAS

November 13, 2013
By

While sorting through an old pile of papers, I discovered notes from a 2012 SAS conference that I had attended. Next to the abstract for one presentation, I had scrawled a note to myself that read "BLOG about the incomplete beta function!" Okay, Rick, whatever you say! In statistics, the [...]

## Survival analysis for hard drives

November 12, 2013
By

How long do hard drives last? Backblaze has kept up to 25,000 hard drives constantly online for the last four years. Every time a drive fails, they note it down, then slot in a replacement. After four years, Backblaze now … Continue reading →

## Classical Statistics really is screwed.

November 12, 2013
By

It’s believed the crises in science will abate if we only educate everyone on the correct interpretation of p-values and confidence intervals. I explained before in this long post why this isn’t true. Below is a summary. Two technical point...

## Future of Statistical Sciences Workshop is happening right now #FSSW2013

November 12, 2013
By

ASA Executive Director Ron Wasserstein is tweeting like mad man. If you're not in London, catch up on what's happening at the hashtag #FSSW2013.

## Plaig!

November 12, 2013
By

This one is no big deal in the grand scheme of things, but . . . wow! Pretty blatant. Maybe someone could endow the Raymond Keene Chair of Cut-and-Paste in the statistics department at George Mason University. Anyway, say what you want about this dude, at least he’s classy. He steals not from Wikipedia but […]The post Plaig! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## Two videos of my recent talks

November 12, 2013
By

I'm hoping to speak at a location near you in the near future but in the meantime, here are two prior occasions you may have missed. The first is the LISA conference. LISA is Leaders in Software and Art. You'd get a flavor of this fascinating group by viewing this 7-minute video (link). I gave a 5-minute lightning talk, which starts at 4:18 on the video. All the lightning talks…

## Infographics posters have become the butt of jokes

November 12, 2013
By

Reader Chris P. sends us to this infographics poster parody: (link to SMBC Comics here) See my other posts on infographics.

## Elusive statistics

November 12, 2013
By

From Controversies in the Foundations of Statistics by Bradley Efron: Statistics seems to be a difficult subject for mathematicians, perhaps because its elusive and wide-ranging character mitigates against the traditional theorem-proof method of presentation. It may come as some comfort then that statistics is also a difficult subject for statisticians. Related posts: Ambiguous statistical notation […]

## googleVis 0.4.7 with RStudio integration on CRAN

November 12, 2013
By

In my previous post, I presented a preview version of googleVis that provided an integration with RStudio's Viewer pane (introduced with version 0.98.441).Over 80% in my little survey favoured the new default output mechanism of googleVis within RStudi...

## A Shiny App for Playing with OLS

November 12, 2013
By

Ordinary least squares continues to be the staple estimator for causal inference for good reason.  In order to help new and veteran OLS users get a better sense of how it is working I have created a shiny app that allows for instant interactivity ...

## Running Back-tests in parallel

November 11, 2013
By

Once you start experimenting with many different asset allocation algorithms, the computation time of running the back-tests can be substantial. One simple way to solve the computation time problem is to run the back-tests in parallel. I.e. if the asset allocation algorithm does not use the prior period holdings to make decision about current allocation, […]

## Imperialstan

November 11, 2013
By

Despite the map here, I'm not going to talk about yet another fraction of the former Soviet Empire which is taken the form of a people's republic, possibly with witty British Ambassadors.In fact, I'm going to talk about the Stan workshop that I have be...

## Jedi master of data: Hans Rosling

November 11, 2013
By

It has been inspiring to watch how Hans Rosling gave impressive talks about numbers and statistics. If you haven’t seen any of his great presentations, here is one example: Chances are that you probably haven’t seen him showing his wild side before. I just saw this article, “Hans Rosling: the man who makes statistics sing“, […]

## Apple’s Touch ID and a worldwide lesson in sensitivity and specificity

November 11, 2013
By

I've been playing with my new iPhone 5s for the last few weeks, and first let me just say that it's an awesome phone. Don't listen to whatever Jeff says. It's probably worth it just for the camera, but I've … Continue reading →

## A New Center to Watch for Predictive Macroeconomic and Financial Modeling

November 11, 2013
By

Check out USC's fine new Center for Applied Financial Economics, led by the indefatigable Hashem Pesaran. The first event is a fascinating conference, "Recent Developments on Forecasting Techniques for Macro and Finance."  Lots of information here...

## Data Compression and the Nobel in Economics

November 11, 2013
By

Consider the following data compression problem. Suppose we have a large data set we wish to transmit. They’re too many to send directly but luckily the precise values aren’t important. Slightly different values would work as long as the da...

## Predictive Modeling

November 11, 2013
By
$\mathbb{E}(X)=\underset{c\in\mathbb{R}}{\text{argmin}}\{\mathbb{E}\left([X-c]^2\right)\}=\underset{c\in\mathbb{R}}{\text{argmin}}\{\mathbb{E}\left(||X-c||_{L_2}\right)\}$

Tomorrow, around noon, I will be giving a talk on predictive modeling for actuaries. In the introduction, I will get back shortly on the idea that a prediction is usually a best estimate, in the sense of getting an expected value. And because it is natural to use least square ideas. In order to illustrate all those concepts, we will use a simple dataset, with the sex, the height and…

## Out with Big Data, in with Hyperdata

November 11, 2013
By

Big data is so last year. Collecting data from all sorts of odd places and analyzing it much faster than was possible even a couple of years ago has become one of the hottest areas of the technology industry. The … Continue reading →

## Why ask why? Forward causal inference and reverse causal questions

November 11, 2013
By

Guido Imbens and I write: The statistical and econometrics literature on causality is more focused on “effects of causes” than on “causes of effects.” That is, in the standard approach it is natural to study the effect of a treatment, but it is not in general possible to define the causes of any particular outcome. […]The post Why ask why? Forward causal inference and reverse causal questions appeared first on…

## Graph redesign is hot

November 11, 2013
By

Joe D., a long time reader, points us to a few blogs that have been active creating redesigns of charts, similar to how we do it here. First up, here are some examples from Storytelling With Data (link). This example...

## Multicollinearity tutoral

November 11, 2013
By

I just posted brief multicollinearity tutorial on my other blog (loosely based on the material from the Serious Stats book). You can read it here.Filed under: serious stats, stats advice Tagged: correlation and covariance, general linear model, messy d...

## Multicollinearity tutoral

November 11, 2013
By

I just posted brief multicollinearity tutorial on my other blog (loosely based on the material from the Serious Stats book). You can read it here.Filed under: serious stats, stats advice Tagged: correlation and covariance, general linear model, messy d...