A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics

August 11, 2015
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A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics

Today is Egon Pearson’s birthday. I reblog a post by my colleague Aris Spanos from (8/18/12): “Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics.”  Happy Birthday Egon Pearson!     Egon Pearson (11 August 1895 – 12 June 1980), is widely known today for his contribution in recasting of Fisher’s significance testing into the Neyman-Pearson (1933) theory of hypothesis testing. Occasionally, he […]

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Neither time nor stomach

August 11, 2015
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Neither time nor stomach

Mark Palko writes: Thought you might be interested in an EngageNY lesson plan for statistics. So far no (-2)x(-2) = -4 (based on a quick read), but still kind of weak. It bothers me that they keep talking about randomization but only for order of test; they assigned treatment A to the first ten of […] The post Neither time nor stomach appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Fitting a multilevel model

August 11, 2015
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Cui Yang writes: I have a question about the use of BRT (Boosting regression tree). I am planning to write an article about the effects of soil fauna and understory fine roots on forest soil organic carbon. The experiment was conducted in a subtropical forest area in China. There were 16 blocks each with 5 […] The post Fitting a multilevel model appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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JSM 2015 [day #2]

August 11, 2015
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JSM 2015 [day #2]

Today, at JSM 2015, in Seattle, I attended several Bayesian sessions, having sadly missed the Dennis Lindley memorial session yesterday, as it clashed with my own session. In the morning sessions on Bayesian model choice, David Rossell (Warwick) defended non-local priors à la Johnson (& Rossell) as having better frequentist properties. Although I appreciate the concept […]

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JSM 2015 [day #2]

August 11, 2015
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JSM 2015 [day #2]

Today, at JSM 2015, in Seattle, I attended several Bayesian sessions, having sadly missed the Dennis Lindley memorial session yesterday, as it clashed with my own session. In the morning sessions on Bayesian model choice, David Rossell (Warwick) defended non-local priors à la Johnson (& Rossell) as having better frequentist properties. Although I appreciate the concept […]

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On radical manuscript openness

August 10, 2015
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On radical manuscript openness

One of my papers that has attracted a lot of attention lately is "The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals," in which we describe some of the fallacies held by the proponents and users of confidence intervals. This paper has been discu...

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How Do You Know if Your Data Has Signal?

August 10, 2015
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How Do You Know if Your Data Has Signal?

Image by Liz Sullivan, Creative Commons. Source: Wikimedia An all too common approach to modeling in data science is to throw all possible variables at a modeling procedure and “let the algorithm sort it out.” This is tempting when you are not sure what are the true causes or predictors of the phenomenon you are … Continue reading How Do You Know if Your Data Has Signal?

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Reporting on Ferguson

August 10, 2015
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In today's Daily Beast column, Andrew and I looked at the reporting of Ferguson and the attempts to place the event in the context of larger crime waves. We discuss issues of the narrative fallacy, cherry-picking of data, and publication bias. The link is: http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/10/the-truth-about-post-ferguson-gun-deaths.html

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rafalib package now on CRAN

August 10, 2015
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rafalib package now on CRAN

For the last several years I have been collecting functions I routinely use during exploratory data analysis in a private R package. Mike Love and I used some of these in our HarvardX course and now, due to popular demand, I have created man pages and added the rafalib package to CRAN. Mike has made several

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Dan Kahan doesn’t trust the Turk

August 10, 2015
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Dan Kahan writes: I [Kahan] think serious journals should adopt policies announcing that they won’t accept studies that use M Turk samples for types of studies they are not suited for. . . . Here is my proposal: Pending a journal’s adoption of a uniform policy on M Turk samples, the journal should should oblige […] The post Dan Kahan doesn’t trust the Turk appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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On deck this week

August 10, 2015
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Mon: Dan Kahan doesn’t trust the Turk Tues: Neither time nor stomach Wed: Reprint of “Observational Studies” by William Cochran followed by comments by current researchers in observational studies Thurs: Hey—Don’t trust anything coming from the Tri-Valley Center for Human Potential! Fri: Harry S. Truman, Jesus H. Christ, Roy G. Biv Sat: Why couldn’t Breaking […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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2015 CIRANO Real‐Time Workshop

August 10, 2015
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The 2015 CIRANO Real‐Time Workshop will be in Montreal, October 9-10, 2015. As usual, the program is looking great, thanks to the Program Committee of Dean Croushore (University of Richmond),  Domenico Giannone (FRB New York), Shaun Vahey (...

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Those tricky PERCENT formats

August 10, 2015
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Those tricky PERCENT formats

When using SAS to format a number as a percentage, there is a little trick that you need to remember: the width of the formatted value must include room for the decimal point, the percent sign, and the possibility of two parentheses that indicate negative values. The field width must […] The post Those tricky PERCENT formats appeared first on The DO Loop.

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JSM 2015 [day #1]

August 10, 2015
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JSM 2015 [day #1]

This afternoon, at JSM 2015, in Seattle, we had the Bayesian Computation I and II sessions that Omiros Papaspiliopoulos and myself put together (sponsored by IMS and ISBA). Despite this being Sunday and hence having some of the participants still arriving, the sessions went on well in terms of audience. Thanks to Mark Girolami’s strict […]

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JSM 2015 [day #1]

August 10, 2015
By
JSM 2015 [day #1]

This afternoon, at JSM 2015, in Seattle, we had the Bayesian Computation I and II sessions that Omiros Papaspiliopoulos and myself put together (sponsored by IMS and ISBA). Despite this being Sunday and hence having some of the participants still arriving, the sessions went on well in terms of audience. Thanks to Mark Girolami’s strict […]

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Interested in analyzing images of brains? Get started with open access data.

August 10, 2015
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Editor’s note: This is a guest post by Ani Eloyan. She is an Assistant Professor of Biostatistics at Brown University. Dr. Eloyan’s work focuses on semi-parametric likelihood based methods for matrix decompositions, statistical analyses of brain images, and the integration of various types of complex data structures for analyzing health care data. She received her

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Basic MCMC and Bayesian statistics in… BASIC!

August 9, 2015
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Basic MCMC and Bayesian statistics in… BASIC!

The BASIC programming language was at one point the most widely spread programming language. Many home computers in the 80s came with BASIC (like the Commodore 64 and the Apple II), and in the 90s both DOS and Windows 95 included a copy of the QBasic...

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Stan at JSM2015

August 9, 2015
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Stan at JSM2015

In addition to Jigiang’s talk on Stan, 11:25 AM on Wednesday, I’ll also be giving a talk about Hamiltonian Monte Carlo today at 3:20 PM.  Stanimals in attendance can come find me to score a sweet Stan sticker. And everyone should check out Andrew’s breakout performance in “A Stan is Born”. Update: Turns out I missed even […] The post Stan at JSM2015 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Statistical Theory is our “Write Once, Run Anywhere”

August 9, 2015
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Having followed the software industry as a casual bystander, I periodically see the tension flare up between the idea of writing “native apps”, software that is tuned to a particular platform (Windows, Mac, etc.) and more cross-platform apps, which run on many platforms without too much modification. Over the years it has come up in

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Monte Carlo and the Holy Grail

August 9, 2015
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Monte Carlo and the Holy Grail

On 31 Dec 2010, someone wrote in: A British Bayesian curiosity: Adrian Smith has just been knighted, and so becomes Sir Adrian. He can’t be the first Bayesian knight, as Harold Jeffreys was Sir Harold. I replied by pointing to this discussion from 2008, and adding: Perhaps Spiegelhalter can be knighted next. Or maybe Ripley! […] The post Monte Carlo and the Holy Grail appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Predicting Titanic deaths on Kaggle III: Bagging

August 9, 2015
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Predicting Titanic deaths on Kaggle III: Bagging

This is the third post on prediction the deaths. The first one used randomforest, the second boosting (gbm). The aim of the third post was to use bagging. In contrast to the former posts I abandoned dplyr in this post. It gave some now you see now you ...

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Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”

August 9, 2015
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Statistical Theater of the Absurd: “Stat on a Hot Tin Roof”

Memory lane: Did you ever consider how some of the colorful exchanges among better-known names in statistical foundations could be the basis for high literary drama in the form of one-act plays (even if appreciated by only 3-7 people in the world)? (Think of the expressionist exchange between Bohr and Heisenberg in Michael Frayn’s play […]

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delayed in Seattle

August 8, 2015
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delayed in Seattle

Here are the slides of my talk on delayed acceptance I present this afternoon at JSM 2015, in Seattle, in the Bayesian Computation I (2pm, room CC-4C1) and II (4pm, room CC-3A) sessions Omiros Papaspiliopoulos and myself put together (sponsored by IMS and ISBA):Filed under: Books, R, Statistics, Travel, University life Tagged: American Statistical Association, […]

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