All maps of parameter estimates remain misleading

August 2, 2016
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All maps of parameter estimates remain misleading

Roland Rau writes: After many years of applying frequentist statistical methods in mortality research, I just began to learn about the application of Bayesian methods in demography. Since I also wanted to change a part of my research focus on spatial models, I discovered your 1999 paper with Phil Price, All maps of parameter estimates […] The post All maps of parameter estimates remain misleading appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Seminar: Data Mining for Biosecurity Regulation, University of Canberra, Wednesday 10 Aug 2016

August 1, 2016
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Seminar: Data Mining for Biosecurity Regulation, University of Canberra, Wednesday 10 Aug 2016

Topic: Data Mining for Biosecurity Regulation Speaker: A/Prof. Andrew Robinson, Melbourne University When: 4:30pm-5:30pm, Wednesday 10 Aug 2016 Where: 9A1 (Building 9, Room A1), University of Canberra. See UC map at http://www.canberra.edu.au/maps/pdf-maps/UC-Bruce-Campus-Map.pdf RSVP: http://www.meetup.com/CanberraDataSci/events/233033578/ Abstract: The Department of Agriculture and … Continue reading →

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On the Superiority of Observed Information

August 1, 2016
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Earlier I claimed that "Efron-Hinkley holds up -- observed information dominates estimated expected information for finite-sample MLE inference." Several of you have asked for elaboration.The earlier post grew from a 6 AM Hong Kong breakfast conversat...

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A kangaroo, a feather, and a scale walk into Viktor Beekman’s office

August 1, 2016
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A kangaroo, a feather, and a scale walk into Viktor Beekman’s office

E. J. writes: I enjoyed your kangaroo analogy [see also here—ed.] and so I contacted a talented graphical artist—Viktor Beekman—to draw it. The drawing is on Flickr under a CC license. Thanks, Viktor and E.J.! The post A kangaroo, a...

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Compute highest density regions in SAS

August 1, 2016
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Compute highest density regions in SAS

In a scatter plot, the regions where observations are packed tightly are areas of high density. A contour plot or heat map of a bivariate kernel density estimate (KDE) is one way to visualize regions of high density. A SAS customer asked whether it is possible to use SAS to […] The post Compute highest density regions in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Stan 2.11 Good, Stan 2.10 Bad

July 31, 2016
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Stan 2.11 Good, Stan 2.10 Bad

Stan 2.11 is available for all interfaces We are happy to announce that all of the interfaces have been updated to Stan 2.11. There was a subtle bug introduced in 2.10 where a probabilistic acceptance condition was being checked twice. Sorry about that and thanks for your patience. We’ve added some additional tests to catch […] The post Stan 2.11 Good, Stan 2.10 Bad appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Even social scientists can think like pundits, unfortunately

July 31, 2016
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I regularly read the Orgtheory blog which has interesting perspectives from sociologists. Today I saw this, from Sean Safford: I [Safford] actually hold to the idea that the winning candidate for President is always the one who has a clearer view of the challenges and opportunities facing the country and articulates a viable roadmap for […] The post Even social scientists can think like pundits, unfortunately appeared first on Statistical…

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What recommendations to give when a medical study is not definitive (which of course will happen all the time, especially considering that new treatments should be compared to best available alternatives, which implies that most improvements will be incremental at best)

July 30, 2016
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Simon Gates writes: I thought you might be interested in a recently published clinical trial, for potential blog material. It picks up some themes that have cropped in recent months. Also, it is important for the way statistical methods influence what can be life or death decisions. The OPPTIMUM trial (http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(16)00350-0/abstract) evaluated use of vaginal progesterone […] The post What recommendations to give when a medical study is not definitive (which…

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A meta list of what to do at JSM 2016

July 30, 2016
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A meta list of what to do at JSM 2016

I’m going to be heading out tomorrow for JSM 2016. If you want to catch up I’ll be presenting in the 6-8PM poster session on The Extraordinary Power of Data on Sunday and on data visualization (and other things) in MOOCs at 8:30am on Monday. Here i...

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Stop saying confidence intervals are "better" than p values

July 29, 2016
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Stop saying confidence intervals are "better" than p values

One of the common tropes one hears from advocates of confidence intervals is that they are superior, or should be preferred, to p values. In our paper "The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals", we outlined a number of interpretation p...

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Stop saying confidence intervals are "better" than p values

July 29, 2016
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Stop saying confidence intervals are "better" than p values

One of the common tropes one hears from advocates of confidence intervals is that they are superior, or should be preferred, to p values. In our paper "The Fallacy of Placing Confidence in Confidence Intervals", we outlined a number of interpretation p...

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Does Benadryl make you senile? Challenges in research communication

July 29, 2016
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Does Benadryl make you senile?  Challenges in research communication

Mark Tuttle points to a post, “Common anticholinergic drugs like Benadryl linked to increased dementia risk” by Beverly Merz, Executive Editor, Harvard Women’s Health Watch. Merz writes: In a report published in JAMA Internal Medicine, researchers offers compelling evidence of a link between long-term use of anticholinergic medications like Benadryl and dementia. . . . […] The post Does Benadryl make you senile? Challenges in research communication appeared first on…

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Female world leaders by year of election

July 29, 2016
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Female world leaders by year of election

This week Hillary Clinton became the first woman to be nominated for president of the US by a major political party. Although this is a first for the US, many other countries have already passed this milestone. In fact, 60 countries have already elected women as presidents and prime ministers. […] The post Female world leaders by year of election appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Fish cannot carry p-values

July 28, 2016
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Following up on our discussion from last week on inference for fisheries, Anders Lamberg writes: Since I first sent you the question, there has been a debate here too. In the discussion you send, there is a debate both about the actual sampling (the mathematics) and about more the practical/biological issues. How accurate can farmed […] The post Fish cannot carry p-values appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Call for research on California water resources

July 28, 2016
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Patrick Atwater writes: I serve as a project manager of the California Data Collaborative, a coalition of water utilities working together to share data and ensure water reliability. We’ve put together a quick call for ideas on studies into the demand effects of water rates leveraging this unique database. California’s water world is highly fragmented […] The post Call for research on California water resources appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Round values while preserve their rounded sum in R

July 28, 2016
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After an embarrassing teleconference in which I presented a series of percentages that did not sum to 100 (as they should have), I found some R code on stackoverflow.com to help me to avoid this in the future. In general, the sum of rounded numbers (e.g., using the base::round function) is not the same as … Continue reading Round values while preserve their rounded sum in R →

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Statistics positions available at Monash University

Statistics positions available at Monash University

We are hiring again, and looking for people in statistics, econometrics and related fields (such as actuarial science, machine learning, and business analytics). We have a strong business analytics group (with particular expertise in data visualizati...

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Bayesian Essentials with R [book review]

July 27, 2016
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Bayesian Essentials with R [book review]

[A review of Bayesian Essentials that appeared in Technometrics two weeks ago, with the first author being rechristened Jean-Michael!] “Overall this book is a very helpful and useful introduction to Bayesian methods of data analysis. I found the use of R, the code in the book, and the companion R package, bayess, to be helpful […]

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On Economics Seminars……..

July 27, 2016
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On Economics Seminars……..

© 2016, David E. Giles

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My JSM 2016 itinerary

July 27, 2016
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The Joint Statistical Meetings are in Chicago next week. I thought I’d write down the set of sessions that I plan to attend. Please let me know if you have further suggestions. First things first: snacks. Search the program for “spotlight” or “while supplies last” for the free snacks being offered. Or go to the […]

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What makes a mathematical formula beautiful?

July 27, 2016
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What makes a mathematical formula beautiful?

Hiro Minato pointed me to this paper (hyped here) by Semir Zeki, John Romaya, Dionigi Benincasa, and Michael Atiyah on “The experience of mathematical beauty and its neural correlates,” who report: We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to image the activity in the brains of 15 mathematicians when they viewed mathematical formulae which they […] The post What makes a mathematical formula beautiful? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Apple Watch users overwhelmingly satisfied, says a survey of satisfied users

July 27, 2016
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Apple Watch users overwhelmingly satisfied, says a survey of satisfied users

As word of plummeting sales of Apple Watch spread around last week, an entrepreneur went on Medium to sing a different tune: his survey apparently uncovered a "paradox" - Apple Watch users are "overwhelmingly satisfied, yet not recommending" the product. The "overwhelming" bit comes from this chart: This data portray a hugely successful product in which almost nobody expressed any negative feelings. This next chart is even more impressive. Apparently,…

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How to visualize a kernel density estimate

July 27, 2016
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How to visualize a kernel density estimate

A kernel density estimate (KDE) is a nonparametric estimate for the density of a data sample. A KDE can help an analyst determine how to model the data: Does the KDE look like a normal curve? Like a mixture of normals? Is there evidence of outliers in the data? In […] The post How to visualize a kernel density estimate appeared first on The DO Loop.

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