Discussion with Dan Kahan on political polarization, partisan information processing. And, more generally, the role of theory in empirical social science

October 4, 2013
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Discussion with Dan Kahan on political polarization, partisan information processing.  And, more generally, the role of theory in empirical social science

It all began with this message from Dan Kahan, a law professor who does psychology experiments: My graphs– what do you think?? I guess what do you think of the result too, but the answer is, “That’s obvious!”  If it hadn’t been, then it would have been suspicious in my book. Of course, if we […]The post Discussion with Dan Kahan on political polarization, partisan information processing. And, more generally,…

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Scientific communication that accords you “the basic human dignity of allowing you to draw your own conclusions”

October 4, 2013
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Amanda Martinez, a writer for The Atlantic and others, advised attendees that her favorite writing “accorded me the basic human dignity of allowing me to draw my own conclusions.” I really like that way of putting it, and this is something we tried hard to do with Red State Blue State, to put the information […]The post Scientific communication that accords you “the basic human dignity of allowing you to…

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Questions on my online forecasting course

October 4, 2013
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Questions on my online forecasting course

I’ve been getting emails asking questions about my upcoming course on Forecasting using R. Here are some answers. Do I need to use the Revolution Enterprise version of R, or can I use open-source R? Open source R is fine. Revolution Analytics is organizing the course, but there is no requirement to use their software. I will be using open source R with Rstudio for demonstrating things in lectures. Is…

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Assumption-Free High-Dimensional Inference

October 4, 2013
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Assumption-Free High-Dimensional Inference

Richard Lockhart, Jonathan Taylor, Ryan Tibshirani and Rob Tibshirani have an interesting paper about significance tests for the lasso. The paper will appear in The Annals of Statistics. I was asked to write a discussion about the paper. Here is my discussion. (I suggest your read their paper before reading my discussion.) Assumption-Free High-Dimensional Inference: […]

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Assumption-Free High-Dimensional Inference

October 4, 2013
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Assumption-Free High-Dimensional Inference

Richard Lockhart, Jonathan Taylor, Ryan Tibshirani and Rob Tibshirani have an interesting paper about significance tests for the lasso. The paper will appear in The Annals of Statistics. I was asked to write a discussion about the paper. Here is my discussion. (I suggest your read their paper before reading my discussion.) Assumption-Free High-Dimensional Inference: […]

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On house arrest for p-hacking

October 3, 2013
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People keep pointing me to this excellent news article by David Brown, about a scientist who was convicted of data manipulation: In all, 330 patients were randomly assigned to get either interferon gamma-1b or placebo injections. Disease progression or death occurred in 46 percent of those on the drug and 52 percent of those on […]The post On house arrest for p-hacking appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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A comment on a post at the Monkey Cage

October 3, 2013
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A comment on a post at the Monkey Cage

The sister blog has moved to the Washington Post. It’s harder to leave comments there, so I’ll post my comments to Monkey Cage posts here instead. Political scientist Lisa Martin wrote a post on student evaluations of teaching, based on a recent paper where she writes: Many female faculty believe that they face prejudice in […]The post A comment on a post at the Monkey Cage appeared first on Statistical…

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Mark your calendar

October 3, 2013
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This is a cross-post on both my blogs. *** I'll be speaking at the NYU Bookstore on Oct 8 (next Tuesday), 6-7:30 pm. See here. On Oct 9 (Wed), I'll be speaking at the Princeton Tech Meetup. The meeting starts at 7; my talk starts at 8. Details here.

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Mark your calendar

October 3, 2013
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I'll be speaking at the NYU Bookstore on Oct 8 (next Tuesday), 6-7:30 pm. See here. On Oct 9 (Wed), I'll be speaking at the Princeton Tech Meetup. The meeting starts at 7; my talk starts at 8. Details here.

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Mark your calendar

October 3, 2013
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I'll be speaking at the NYU Bookstore on Oct 8 (next Tuesday), 6-7:30 pm. See here. On Oct 9 (Wed), I'll be speaking at the Princeton Tech Meetup. The meeting starts at 7; my talk starts at 8. Details here.

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One step closer to a two-hour marathon

October 2, 2013
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One step closer to a two-hour marathon

This past Sunday Wilson Kipsang ran the Berlin Marathon in 2:03:23, shaving 15 seconds off the world record.  That means it's time to check in on the world record progression and update my article from two years ago.  The following is a revis...

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On the misinterpretation of p-values:

October 2, 2013
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First, let me start of by saying I'm a classical statistics and p-value apologist--I think it's the cats pajamas. It was mine (and many others') first introduction to statistics. So, in spite of my being a card-carrying member of The Bayesian Consipiracy, there will always be a place in my heart (grinch-sized though it is) »more

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Bayes alert! Cool postdoc position here on missing data imputation and applications in health disparities research!

October 2, 2013
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The Division of Biostatistics and Epidemiology at Weill Medical College of Cornell University invite applications for a post-doctoral fellow position in Biostatistics. We are seeking a highly motivated individual to develop novel statistical methods for missing data imputation and applications in health disparities research using national administrative data, with funding from Agency of Healthcare Research […]The post Bayes alert! Cool postdoc position here on missing data imputation and applications in…

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Scale-cramming

October 2, 2013
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Scale-cramming

Reader Andrew C. was unhappy about the following stacked bar chart, published by Teach for America, touting its diversity. (link) The lightning symbol that splits apart the Caucasian bar is a harbinger of trouble. For the designer deployed seven different...

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The first MOOC in statistics

October 2, 2013
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The first MOOC in statistics

Massive open online courses (MOOCs) are all the rage today. Some people see free online courses as a convenient way to introduce statistical concepts to tens of thousands of students who would not otherwise have an opportunity to learn about data analysis. Whereas 2013 is the International Year of Statistics, [...]

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The Uncertainty of Predictions

October 2, 2013
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The Uncertainty of Predictions

There are many kinds of intervals in statistics.  To name a few of the common intervals: confidence intervals, prediction intervals, credible intervals, and tolerance intervals. Each are useful and serve their own purpose. I’ve been recently working on a couple of projects that involve making predictions from a regression model and I’ve been doing some […]

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Big Data the Big Hassle

October 2, 2013
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The hype surrounding "Big Data" has escalated to borderline nauseating. Is it just a sham?Yes, I know, I have earlier gushed about the wonders of Big Data. But that was then, and now is now, and I hear my inner contrarian alarm sounding.One thing ...

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I’ll say it again

October 1, 2013
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Milan Valasek writes: Psychology students (and probably students in other disciplines) are often taught that in order to perform ‘parametric’ tests, e.g. independent t-test, the data for each group need to be normally distributed. However, in literature (and various university lecture notes and slides accessible online), I have come across at least 4 different interpretation […]The post I’ll say it again appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Workshop on BIG DATA

October 1, 2013
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Workshop on BIG DATA

From: https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B8kL1t8n_fICMlBkWlZWR3UwS0E/edit?usp=drive_web

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Marginal likelihood from tempered Bayesian posteriors

October 1, 2013
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Marginal likelihood from tempered Bayesian posteriors

Introduction In the previous post I showed that it is possible to couple parallel tempered MCMC chains in order to improve mixing. Such methods can be used when the target of interest is a Bayesian posterior distribution that is difficult to sample. There are (at least) a couple of obvious ways that one can temper […]

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Marginal likelihood from tempered Bayesian posteriors

October 1, 2013
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Marginal likelihood from tempered Bayesian posteriors

Introduction In the previous post I showed that it is possible to couple parallel tempered MCMC chains in order to improve mixing. Such methods can be used when the target of interest is a Bayesian posterior distribution that is difficult to sample. There are (at least) a couple of obvious ways that one can temper […]

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The messy world of Big Data

October 1, 2013
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On page 8 of Numbersense (link), I wrote: Web logs are a messy, messy world. If two vendors are deployed to analyze traffic on the same website, it is guaranteed that their statistics would not reconcile, and the gap can be as high as 20 or 30 percent. Insiders will nod their heads; for those who aren’t familiar with Web data, take a look at this recent post on The…

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Creating a matrix from a long data.frame

October 1, 2013
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Creating a matrix from a long data.frame

There can never be too many examples for transforming data with R. So, here is another example of reshaping a data.frame into a matrix.Here I have a data frame that shows incremental claim payments over time for different loss occurrence (origin) years...

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