fMRI clusterf******

December 10, 2016
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Several people pointed me to this paper by Anders Eklund, Thomas Nichols, and Hans Knutsson, which begins: Functional MRI (fMRI) is 25 years old, yet surprisingly its most common statistical methods have not been validated using real data. Here, we used resting-state fMRI data from 499 healthy controls to conduct 3 million task group analyses. […] The post fMRI clusterf****** appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

5 more things I learned from the 2016 election

December 10, 2016
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After posting the 19 Things We Learned from the 2016 Election, I received a bunch of helpful feedback in comments and email. Here are some of the key points that I missed or presented unclearly: Non-presidential elections Nadia Hassan points out that my article is “so focused on the Presidential race than it misses some […] The post 5 more things I learned from the 2016 election appeared first on…

“The Fundamental Incompatibility of Scalable Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Naive Data Subsampling”

December 10, 2016
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Here’s Michael Betancourt writing in 2015: Leveraging the coherent exploration of Hamiltonian flow, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo produces computationally efficient Monte Carlo estimators, even with respect to complex and high-dimensional target distributions. When confronted with data-intensive applications, however, the algorithm may be too expensive to implement, leaving us to consider the utility of approximations such as […] The post “The Fundamental Incompatibility of Scalable Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Naive Data Subsampling”…

Temple Grandin

December 9, 2016
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She also belongs in the “objects of class Pauline Kael” category. Most autistic people are male, but Temple Grandin is the most famous and accomplished autistic person ever. The post Temple Grandin appeared first on Statistical Modeling, C...

Nomen omen

December 9, 2016
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After resisting this for way too long, I've finally decided it was time to release more widely a couple of the R packages I've been working on \$-\$ I've put them on GitHub, hence the mug...In both cases, while I think the packages do work nicely, I am s...

Round things, square things

December 9, 2016
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The following chart traces the flow of funds into AI (artificial intelligence) startups. I found it on this webpage and it is attributed to Financial Times. Here, I apply the self-sufficiency test to show that the semicircles are playing no...

19 Things We Learned from the 2016 Election

December 8, 2016
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OK, we can all agree that the November election result was a shocker. According to news reports, even the Trump campaign team was stunned to come up a winner. So now seemed like a good time to go over various theories floating around in political science and political reporting and see where they stand, now […] The post 19 Things We Learned from the 2016 Election appeared first on Statistical…

Which graph to use?

December 8, 2016
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A student asked me on our Facebook page to help with an assignment. It got me thinking again about the nature of answers in statistics, and the challenge of communicating through graphs. The student gave no explanation, but rather a … Continue reading →

“So such markets were, and perhaps are, subject to bias from deep pocketed people who may be expressing preference more than actual expectation”

December 8, 2016
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Geoff Buchan writes in with another theory about how prediction markets can go wrong: I did want to mention one fascinating datum on Brexit: one UK bookmaker said they received about twice as many bets on leave as on remain, but the average bet on remain was *five* times what was bet on leave, meaning […] The post “So such markets were, and perhaps are, subject to bias from deep…

flea circus

December 7, 2016
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An old riddle found on X validated asking for Monte Carlo resolution  but originally given on Project Euler: A 30×30 grid of squares contains 30² fleas, initially one flea per square. When a bell is rung, each flea jumps to an adjacent square at random. What is the expected number of unoccupied squares after 50 […]

“Dear Major Textbook Publisher”: A Rant

December 7, 2016
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Dear Major Academic Publisher, You just sent me, unsolicited, an introductory statistics textbook that is 800 pages and weighs about 5 pounds. It’s the 3rd edition of a book by someone I’ve never heard of. That’s fine—a newcomer can write a good book. The real problem is that the book is crap. It’s just the […] The post “Dear Major Textbook Publisher”: A Rant appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Simultaneous confidence intervals for a multivariate mean

December 7, 2016
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Many SAS procedure compute statistics and also compute confidence intervals for the associated parameters. For example, PROC MEANS can compute the estimate of a univariate mean, and you can use the CLM option to get a confidence interval for the population mean. Many parametric regression procedures (such as PROC GLM) […] The post Simultaneous confidence intervals for a multivariate mean appeared first on The DO Loop.

The EagerEyes Holiday Shopping Guide

December 7, 2016
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Are you looking for the perfect gift for the data or visualization geek in your life? Did that crazy self-driving water bottle Kickstarter still not deliver, leaving you hunting for an overpriced Nintendo Classic? The EagerEyes Holiday Shopping Guide has all the geeky, uncool gifts you could possibly want. To be clear, none of the […]

Hey, I forgot to include a cat picture in my previous post!

December 7, 2016
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Josh Miller fixes it for me: The post Hey, I forgot to include a cat picture in my previous post! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Using replyr::let to Parameterize dplyr Expressions

December 7, 2016
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Imagine that in the course of your analysis, you regularly require summaries of numerical values. For some applications you want the mean of that quantity, plus/minus a standard deviation; for other applications you want the median, and perhaps an interval around the median based on the interquartile range (IQR). In either case, you may want … Continue reading Using replyr::let to Parameterize dplyr Expressions

the incredible accuracy of Stirling’s approximation

December 6, 2016
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$the incredible accuracy of Stirling’s approximation$

The last riddle from the Riddler [last before The Election] summed up to find the probability of a Binomial B(2N,½) draw ending up at the very middle, N. Which is If one uses the standard Stirling approximation to the factorial function, log(N!)≈Nlog(N) – N + ½log(2πN) the approximation to ℘ is 1/√πN, which is not […]

Hot hand 1, WSJ 0

December 6, 2016
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In a generally good book review on “uncertainty and the limits of human reason,” William Easterly writes: Failing to process uncertainty correctly, we attach too much importance to too small a number of observations. Basketball teams believe that players suddenly have a “hot hand” after they have made a string of baskets, so you should […] The post Hot hand 1, WSJ 0 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

10 hints to make the most of teaching and academic conferences

December 6, 2016
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Hints for conference benefit maximisation I am writing this post in a spartan bedroom in Glenn Hall at La Trobe University in Bundoora (Melbourne, Australia.) Some outrageously loud crows are doing what crows do best outside my window, and I … Continue reading →

Data 1, NPR 0

December 6, 2016
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Jay “should replace the Brooks brothers on the NYT op-ed page” Livingston writes: There it was again, the panic about the narcissism of millennialas as evidenced by selfies. This time it was NPR’s podcast Hidden Brain. The show’s host Shankar Vedantam chose to speak with only one researcher on the topic – psychologist Jean Twenge, […] The post Data 1, NPR 0 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

best algorithm EVER !!!!!!!!

December 6, 2016
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Someone writes: On the website https://odajournal.com/ you find a lot of material for Optimal (or “optimizing”) Data Analysis (ODA) which is described as: In the Optimal (or “optimizing”) Data Analysis (ODA) statistical paradigm, an optimization algorithm is first utilized to identify the model that explicitly maximizes predictive accuracy for the sample, and then the resulting […] The post best algorithm EVER !!!!!!!! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Optimization matchup: R’s glpkAPI vs Julia’s JuMP

December 6, 2016
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tl;dr: although I use R every day and love it, doing mathematical programming using Julia is much simpler and more flexible than anything I know that is currently available in R.Recently I have learned that Iain Dunning and Joey Huchette and Miles Lubi...

Optimization matchup: R’s glpkAPI vs Julia’s JuMP

December 6, 2016
By

tl;dr: although I use R every day and love it, doing mathematical programming using Julia is much simpler and more flexible than anything I know that is currently available in R.Recently I have learned that Iain Dunning and Joey Huchette and Miles Lubi...

Monte Carlo Simulation Basics, III: Regression Model Estimators

December 5, 2016
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This post is the third in a series of posts that I'm writing about Monte Carlo (MC) simulation, especially as it applies to econometrics. If you've already seen the first two posts in the series (here and here) then you'll know that my intention is to ...