Recidivism and logistic regression

November 13, 2015
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Recidivism and logistic regression

In my previous article, I presented the problem of estimating a criminal's risk of recidivism, focusing on the philosophical problems of attributing a probability to an individual.  In this article I turn to the more practical problem of doing the...

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Annotables: R data package for annotating/converting Gene IDs

November 13, 2015
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I work with gene lists on a nearly daily basis. Lists of genes near ChIP-seq peaks, lists of genes closest to a GWAS hit, lists of differentially expressed genes or transcripts from an RNA-seq experiment, lists of genes involved in certain pathways, et...

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Hanging Chad

November 13, 2015
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Hanging Chad

It’s been awhile since I’ve linked to Laura Wattenberg’s excellent baby name blog. Here’s a fun recent item on how one man launched a generation of baby names. Wattenberg writes: Some more highlights from Willson’s roster of custom-named clients: Rad Fulton Cal Bolder Rand Saxon Race Gentry Chance Nesbitt Dack Rambo Van Williams Dare Harris […] The post Hanging Chad appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Bayesian Computing: Adventures on the Efficient Frontier

November 13, 2015
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That’s the title of my forthcoming talk at the Nips workshop at 9am on 12 Dec. The post Bayesian Computing: Adventures on the Efficient Frontier appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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ODI looking for young postgrad statisticians

November 13, 2015
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ODI looking for young postgrad statisticians

The Overseas Development Institute Fellowship Scheme sends young postgraduate statisticians (and economists) to work in the public sectors of developing countries in Africa, the Caribbean and the Pacific on two-year contracts. This is a great way to develop skills and gain experience working within a developing country’s government. And you get to live in a […]

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importance sampling with infinite variance

November 12, 2015
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importance sampling with infinite variance

“In this article it is shown that in a fairly general setting, a sample of size approximately exp(D(μ|ν)) is necessary and sufficient for accurate estimation by importance sampling.” Sourav Chatterjee and Persi Diaconis arXived yesterday an exciting paper where they study the proper sample size in an importance sampling setting with no variance. That’s right, […]

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Neyman does science, part 2

November 12, 2015
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Neyman does science, part 2

In part one of this series, we discussed the different philosophical viewpoints of Neyman and Fisher on the purposes of statistics. Neyman had a behavioral, decision based view: the purpose of statistical inference is to select one of several possible ...

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Pass the popcorn

November 12, 2015
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Pass the popcorn

Rodney Sparapini writes: I got this in my inbox today. I thought this might be of interest to you and your blog readers. It’s not at all of interest to me but it might interest some of my readers. I’m posting it here because there’s something amazing about seeing this intense dispute about something I’ve […] The post Pass the popcorn appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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Big Data for Official Statistics Competition

November 12, 2015
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Big Data for Official Statistics Competition

This is a new competition being organized by EuroStat. The first phase involves nowcasting economic indicators at national and European level including unemployment, HICP, Tourism and Retail Trade and some of their variants. The main goal of the competition is to discover promising methodologies and data sources that could, now or in the future, be […]

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CheapoAir – Worst Travel Agency Ever

November 11, 2015
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CheapoAir – Worst Travel Agency Ever

Stuck in JNB South Africa right now. Arrived 5 minutes late to catch my connection flight.My wife who booked directly through South African Airways can have her flight adjusted for 168 USD.I however made the mistake of booking through CheeapoAir.com. F...

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Andrew Gelman delivers a lesson on statistical adjustment, so you can relax about middle-aged men killing themselves

November 11, 2015
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Andrew Gelman delivers a lesson on statistical adjustment, so you can relax about middle-aged men killing themselves

My co-columnist Andrew Gelman has been doing some fantastic work, digging behind that trendy news story that claims that middled-aged, non-Hispanic, white male Americans are dying at an abnormal rate. See, for example, this New York Times article that not only reports the statistical pattern but also in its headline, asserts that those additional deaths were due to suicide and substance abuse. It all bega n with the chart shown…

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A Fascinating Event Study

November 11, 2015
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I just read an absolutely fascinating event study, "The Power of the Street: Evidence from Egypt’s Arab Spring," by Daron Acemoglu, Tarek Hassan and Ahmed Tahoun (DHT). The paper is here. I'm looking forward to seeing the seminar later today.[Ab...

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Taleb’s Precautionary Principle: Should we be scared of GMOs?

November 11, 2015
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Skyler Johnson writes: I was wondering if you could (or had already) weigh(ed) in on Nassim Taleb’s Precautionary Principle as it applies to GMOs? I’ve attached his working paper with Rupert Read, Raphael Douady, Joseph Norman and,Yaneer Bar-Yam. It can also be found at his site, fooledbyrandomness.com. See also his response to a critique from […] The post Taleb’s Precautionary Principle: Should we be scared of GMOs? appeared first on…

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Guessing games, ensemble averages, and the wisdom of the crowd

November 11, 2015
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Guessing games, ensemble averages, and the wisdom of the crowd

How much does this big pumpkin weigh? One of the cafeterias at SAS invited patrons to post their guesses on an internal social network at SAS. There was no prize for the correct guess; it was just a fun Halloween-week activity. I recognized this as an opportunity to apply the […] The post Guessing games, ensemble averages, and the wisdom of the crowd appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Books to Read While the Algae Grows in Your Fur, October 2015

November 11, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Anne M. Pillsworth, Fathomless Mind candy, sequel to Summoned (which I seem not to have blogged about), being the further education of a Lovecraftian sorcerer. Pillsworth tries very hard to maintain ...

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"Statistical Estimation with Random Forests" (This Week at the Statistics Seminar)

November 11, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: Only of interest if you (1) are interested in seeing machine learning methods turned (back) into ordinary inferential statistics, and (2) will be in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Leo Breiman's random forests have long been ...

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"Inference in the Presence of Network Dependence Due to Contagion" (Next Week at the Statistics Seminar)

November 11, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: Only of interest if you (1) care about statistical inference with network data, and (2) will be in Pittsburgh next week. A (perhaps) too-skeptical view of statistics is that we should always think we have $ n=1 $, becau...

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Prediction Markets for Science: What Problem Do They Solve?

November 11, 2015
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I've recently seen a bunch of press on this paper, which describes an experiment with developing a prediction market for scientific results. From FiveThirtyEight: Although replication is essential for verifying results, the current scientific culture does little to encourage it in most fields. That’s a problem because it means that misleading scientific results, like those from the

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Le Monde puzzle [#937]

November 10, 2015
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Le Monde puzzle [#937]

A combinatoric Le Monde mathematical puzzle that resembles many earlier ones: Given a pool of 30 interns allocated to three person night-shifts, is it possible to see 31 consecutive nights such that (a) all the shifts differ and (b) there are no pair of shifts with a single common intern? In fact, the constraint there […]

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Good value

November 10, 2015
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Earlier today we had our workshop on the Value of Information at the Ispor conference. I think it went well $-$ I counted about 80 people in the room, which was a big turnout, I think (I lost count three times, so I am not actually sure about the numbe...

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Interactive charts using htmlwidgets

November 10, 2015
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This was a deck used in my presentation to the Inland Northwest R user Group this past Friday (November 6, 2015). The introduction of htmlwidgetshas opened up a wide-range of options for R-users without having the need to pick-up on Java...

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Neyman does science, part 1

November 10, 2015
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On reading Neyman's statistical and scientific philosophy (e.g., Neyman, 1957), one of the things that strikes a scientist is its extreme rejection of post-data reasoning. Neyman adopts the view that once data is obtained statistical inference is ...

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Death rates have been increasing for middle-aged white women, decreasing for men

November 10, 2015
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Death rates have been increasing for middle-aged white women, decreasing for men

Here’s the deal (data from CDC Wonder, age-standardized to a uniform distribution in the age range): Hoo boy. Looky here, something interesting: From 1999 to 2013, the death rate for middle-aged white women steadily increased. The death rate for middle-aged white men increased through 2005, then decreased. Since 2005, the death rate has been rising […] The post Death rates have been increasing for middle-aged white women, decreasing for men…

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