The Econometric Game, 2016

April 4, 2016
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The Econometric Game, 2016

Last December I posted about the upcoming 2016 round of The Econometric Game.You'll find links in that post to other posts in previous years.Well, the Game is almost up on us. If you're not familiar with it, here's the overview from  the EG websit...

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“A strong anvil need not fear the hammer”

April 4, 2016
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“A strong anvil need not fear the hammer”

Wagenmakers et al. write: A single experiment cannot overturn a large body of work. . . . An empirical debate is best organized around a series of preregistered replications, and perhaps the authors whose work we did not replicate will feel inspired to conduct their own preregistered studies. In our opinion, science is best served […] The post “A strong anvil need not fear the hammer” appeared first on Statistical…

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On deck this week

April 4, 2016
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Mon: “A strong anvil need not fear the hammer” Tues: Best Disclaimer Ever Wed: These celebrity photos are incredible: Type S errors in use! Thurs: Selection bias, or, some things are better off left unsaid Fri: John Yoo blogging Sat: You won’t be able to forget this one: Alleged data manipulation in NIH-funded Alzheimer’s study […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Football managers on the hot seat

April 4, 2016
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Football managers on the hot seat

Chris Y. asked how to read this BBC Sports graphic via Twitter: These are managers of British football (i.e. soccer) teams. Listed are some of the worst tenures of some managers. But what do the numbers mean? The character "V"...

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The WHERE clause in SAS/IML

April 4, 2016
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The WHERE clause in SAS/IML

In SAS procedures, the WHERE clause is a useful way to filter observations so that the procedure receives only a subset of the data to analyze. The IML procedure supports the WHERE clause in two separate statements. On the USE statement, the WHERE clause acts as a global filter. The […] The post The WHERE clause in SAS/IML appeared first on The DO Loop.

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A question about software for an online survey

April 4, 2016
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Michael Smith writes: I have a research challenge and I was hoping you could spare a minute of your time. I hope it isn’t a bother—I first came across you when I saw your post on how psychology researchers can learn from statisticians. I figure even if you don’t know the answer to this question, […] The post A question about software for an online survey appeared first on Statistical…

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When Choice Modeling Paradigms Collide: Features Presented versus Features Perceived

April 3, 2016
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When Choice Modeling Paradigms Collide: Features Presented versus Features Perceived

What is the value of a product feature? Within a market-based paradigm, the answer is the difference between revenues with and without the feature. A product can be decomposed into its features, each feature can be assigned a monetary value by includin...

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For Opening Day

April 3, 2016
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From John Lardner: A young ex-paratrooper visited Ebbets Field, Brooklyn, one day, and addressed some language, as ball fans will, to Mr. Leo Durocher, the Brooklyn manager, himself the most polite and clean-tongued gentleman in the national pastime when his mouth is shut, which is a hypothetical situation. I should really stop here because this […] The post For Opening Day appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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How to train undergraduate psychologists to be post hoc BS generators

April 3, 2016
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How to train undergraduate psychologists to be post hoc BS generators

Teaching undergraduate psychology is difficult for a variety of reasons. Students come in with preconceived notions about what psychological research is and are sometimes disappointed with the mismatch between their preconceptions and reality. Much of ...

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A bit on the F1 score floor

April 2, 2016
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A bit on the F1 score floor

At Strata+Hadoop World “R Day” Tutorial, Tuesday, March 29 2016, San Jose, California we spent some time on classifier measures derived from the so-called “confusion matrix.” We repeated our usual admonition to not use “accuracy itself” as a project quality goal (business people tend to ask for it as it is the word they are … Continue reading A bit on the F1 score floor

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Himmicanes and hurricanes update

April 2, 2016
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Stuart Buck points us to this new paper by Gary Smith that eviscerates the notorious himmicanes and hurricanes paper. Here’s how Smith’s paper begins: Abstract It has been argued that female-named hurricanes are deadlier because people do not take them seriously. However, this conclusion is based on a questionable statistical analysis of a narrowly defined […] The post Himmicanes and hurricanes update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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WVPlots: example plots in R using ggplot2

April 1, 2016
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WVPlots: example plots in R using ggplot2

Nina Zumel and I have been working on packaging our favorite graphing techniques in a more reusable way that emphasizes the analysis task at hand over the steps needed to produce a good visualization. The idea is: we sacrifice some of the flexibility and composability inherent to ggplot2 in R for a menu of prescribed … Continue reading WVPlots: example plots in R using ggplot2

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Er, about those “other statistical approaches”: Hold off until a balanced critique is in?

April 1, 2016
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Er, about those “other statistical approaches”: Hold off until a balanced critique is in?

I could have told them that the degree of accordance enabling the “6 principles” on p-values was unlikely to be replicated when it came to most of the “other approaches” with which some would supplement or replace significance tests– notably Bayesian updating, Bayes factors, or likelihood ratios (confidence intervals are dual to hypotheses tests). [My commentary […]

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My new Paper

April 1, 2016
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My new Paper

I'm really pleased with the way that my recent paper (with co-author Al Gol) turned out. It's titled "HotGimmer: Random Information", and you can download it here.Comments are welcomed, of course..........© 2016, David E. Giles

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In the biggest advance in applied mathematics since the most recent theorem that Stephen Wolfram paid for . . .

April 1, 2016
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Seth Green writes: I thought you might enjoy this update from the STATA team: . . . suppose we wish to know the effect on employment status of a job training program. Further suppose that motivation affects employment status and motivation affects participation. We do not observe motivation. We have an endogeneity problem. Stata 14’s […] The post In the biggest advance in applied mathematics since the most recent theorem…

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"Reassembling the History of the Novel"

April 1, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: Only of interest if you (1) care about the quantitative history of English novels, and (2) will be in Pittsburgh at the end of the month. I had nothing to do with making this happen — Scott Weingart did — bu...

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You Think This Is Bad

April 1, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: Note the date. Any intelligent and well-intentioned person should have a huge, even over-riding preference for leaving existing social and political institutions and hierarchies alone, just because they are the existing...

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Gresham’s Law of experimental methods

March 31, 2016
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Gresham’s Law of experimental methods

A cognitive scientist writes: You’ll be interested to see a comment from one of my students, who’s trying to follow all your advice: It’s hard to see all this bullshit in top journals, while I see that if I do things right, it takes a long time, and I don’t have the beautiful results these […] The post Gresham’s Law of experimental methods appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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First ask the right question: the data scientist edition

March 31, 2016
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First ask the right question: the data scientist edition

A reader didn't like this graphic in the Wall Street Journal: One could turn every panel into a bar chart but unfortunately, the situation does not improve much. Some charts just can't be fixed by altering the visual design. The...

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pacman Ver 0.4.1 Release

March 31, 2016
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pacman Ver 0.4.1 Release

It was just over a year ago that Dason Kurkiewicz and I released pacman to CRAN.  We have been developing the package on GitHub in the past 14 months and are pleased to announce these changes have made their way … Continue reading →

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New Feather Format for Data Frames

March 31, 2016
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This past Tuesday, Hadley Wickham and Wes McKinney announced a new binary file format specifically for storing data frames. One thing that struck us was that, while R’s data frames and Python’s pandas data frames utilize different internal memo...

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Numbers too good to be true? Or: Thanks, Obama!?

March 30, 2016
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Numbers too good to be true? Or: Thanks, Obama!?

This post is by Phil. The “Affordable Care Act” a.k.a. “Obamacare” was passed in 2010, with its various pieces coming into play over the following few years. One of those pieces is penalties for hospitals that see high readmission rates. The theory here, or at least one of the theories here, was that hospitals could […] The post Numbers too good to be true? Or: Thanks, Obama!? appeared first on…

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