A little story of the Folk Theorem of Statistical Computing

August 12, 2016
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I know I promised I wouldn’t blog, but this one is so clean and simple. And I already wrote it for the stan-users list anyway so it’s almost no effort to post it here too: A colleague and I were working on a data analysis problem, had a very simple overdispersed Poisson regression with a […] The post A little story of the Folk Theorem of Statistical Computing appeared first…

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NBA in NYC

August 11, 2016
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NBA in NYC

Jason Rosenfeld writes: We’re holding the first ever NBA Basketball Analytics Hackathon on Saturday, September 24 at Terminal 23 in midtown Manhattan. I can’t guarantee that Bugs will be there, but ya never know! The post NBA in NYC appear...

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Install Theano under Anaconda3 Python 3.5

August 11, 2016
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Install Theano under Anaconda3 Python 3.5

Update on 2017/01/05:With the release of Anaconda3-4.2.0 in September 2016, users are able to install mingw and libpython under conda, which makes  using Theano and keras in Python3.5 much easier.Here are the simple steps:1. Install Anaconda3-4.2....

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Various ways of showing distributions 2

August 11, 2016
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Various ways of showing distributions 2

In a comment to the previous post, Evan pointed to this Washington Post graphic: (link to article) This chart doesn't render properly in Firefox, nor in Safari. But we can see the designer's intention. It has an added dimension of...

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Are stereotypes statistically accurate?

August 11, 2016
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Apparently there’s a debate in psychology about the accuracy of stereotypes. Lin Bian and Andrei Cimpian write: In his book Social Perception and Social Reality, Lee Jussim suggests that people’s beliefs about various groups (i.e., their stereotypes) are largely accurate. We unpack this claim using the distinction between generic and statistical beliefs—a distinction supported by […] The post Are stereotypes statistically accurate? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Know your data 19: don’t tell me you are 2 blocks away when you are 20 blocks away

August 11, 2016
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Well, it didn't take long but private investigators have found the next big thing: Big Data. Bloomberg reported on a company called IDI, who sells our data to private investigators. (link) Unfortunately, this article is short on details and long on sensationalized catchphrases ("Every move you make. Every click you take...") The CEO of IDI boasted that "We have data on that 21-year-old who’s living at home with mom and…

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George Orwell on the Olympics

August 11, 2016
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George Orwell on the Olympics

From 1945: If you wanted to add to the vast fund of ill-will existing in the world at this moment, you could hardly do it better than by a series of football matches between Jews and Arabs, Germans and Czechs, Indians and British, Russians and Poles, and Italians and Jugoslavs, each match to be watched […] The post George Orwell on the Olympics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Add Table of Contents to your Jupyter Notebook

August 10, 2016
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Add Table of Contents to your Jupyter Notebook

Jupyter notebook does not support Table Of Contents (ToC) out of box, unlike R Markdown. There are nbextensions that ppl made to support this. It is easy to add this capability, following these steps to add Table of Contents to your notebook: 1. F...

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Link: Our World in Data

August 10, 2016
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Link: Our World in Data

Our World in Data looks at a wide variety of data about the world: health, population, energy, growth, inequality, etc. Max Roser and his colleagues dig through the vast amounts of open data to find many interesting connections and insights. As an example, this recent posting on healthcare spending vs. life expectancy uses a connected scatterplot to show … Continue reading Link: Our World in Data

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You won’t be able to forget this one: Alleged data manipulation in NIH-funded Alzheimer’s study

August 10, 2016
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You won’t be able to forget this one:  Alleged data manipulation in NIH-funded Alzheimer’s study

Nick Menzies writes: I thought you might be interested in this case in our local news in Boston. This is a case of alleged data manipulation as part of a grant proposal, with the (former) lead statistician as the whistleblower. Is a very large grant, so high stakes both in terms of reputation and money. […] The post You won’t be able to forget this one: Alleged data manipulation in…

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Compute a bootstrap confidence interval in SAS

August 10, 2016
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Compute a bootstrap confidence interval in SAS

A common question is "how do I compute a bootstrap confidence interval in SAS?" As a reminder, the bootstrap method consists of the following steps: Compute the statistic of interest for the original data Resample B times from the data to form B bootstrap samples. How you resample depends on […] The post Compute a bootstrap confidence interval in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Tourism time series repository

August 10, 2016
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Tourism time series repository

A few years ago, I wrote a paper with George Athanasopoulos and others about a tourism forecasting competition. We originally made the data available as an online supplement to the paper, but that has unfortunately since disappeared although the paper ...

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Boostrapping your posterior

August 9, 2016
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Demetri Spanos writes: I bumped into your paper with John Carlin, Beyond Power Calculations, and encountered your concept of the hypothetical replication of the point estimate. In my own work I have used a similarly structured (but for technical reasons, differently motivated) concept which I have informally been calling the “consensus posterior.” Specifically, supposing a […] The post Boostrapping your posterior appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

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I know I said I wouldn’t blog for awhile, but this one was just too good to resist

August 9, 2016
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Scott Adams endorsing the power pose: Have you heard of the “victory pose.” It’s a way to change your body chemistry almost instantly by putting your hands above your head like you won something. That’s a striking example of how easy it is to manipulate your mood and thoughts by changing your body’s condition. So […] The post I know I said I wouldn’t blog for awhile, but this one…

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DrawMyData

August 8, 2016
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Robert Grant writes: This web page is something I constructed recently. You might find it useful for making artificial datasets that demonstrate a particular point for students. At any rate, if you have any feedback on it I’d be interested to hear it. I’ve tried to keep it as simple as possible but in due […] The post DrawMyData appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Shameless little bullies claim that published triathlon times don’t replicate

August 8, 2016
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Shameless little bullies claim that published triathlon times don’t replicate

Paul Alper sends along this inspiring story of Julie Miller, a heroic triathlete who just wants to triathle in peace, but she keeps getting hassled by the replication police. Those shameless little bullies won’t let her just do her thing, instead they harp on technicalities like missing timing clips and crap like that. Who cares […] The post Shameless little bullies claim that published triathlon times don’t replicate appeared first…

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NSF Grants vs. Improved Data

August 8, 2016
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Lots of people are talking about the Cowen-Tabarrok Journal of Economic Perspectives piece, "A Skeptical View of the National Science Foundation’s Role in Economic Research". See, for example, John Cochrane's insightful "A Look in the Mirror".A loo...

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On deck this week

August 8, 2016
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Mon: Shameless little bullies claim that published triathlon times don’t replicate Tues: Boostrapping your posterior Wed: You won’t be able to forget this one: Alleged data manipulation in NIH-funded Alzheimer’s study Thurs: Are stereotypes statistically accurate? Fri: Will youths who swill Red Bull become adult cocaine addicts? Sat: Science reporters are getting the picture Sun: […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Use SAS formats to bin numerical variables

August 8, 2016
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Use SAS formats to bin numerical variables

SAS formats are flexible, dynamic, and have many uses. For example, you can use formats to count missing values and to change the order of a categorical variable in a table or plot. Did you know that you can also use SAS formats to recode a variable or to bin […] The post Use SAS formats to bin numerical variables appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Documented forking paths in the Competitive Reaction Time Task

August 7, 2016
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Documented forking paths in the Competitive Reaction Time Task

Baruch Eitan writes: This is some luscious garden of forking paths. Indeed. Here’s what Malte Elson writes at the linked website: The Competitive Reaction Time Task, sometimes also called the Taylor Aggression Paradigm (TAP), is one of the most commonly used tests to purportedly measure aggressive behavior in a laboratory environment. . . . While […] The post Documented forking paths in the Competitive Reaction Time Task appeared first on…

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Smooth poll aggregation using state-space modeling in Stan, from Jim Savage

August 6, 2016
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Smooth poll aggregation using state-space modeling in Stan, from Jim Savage

Jim Savage writes: I just saw your post on poll bounces; have been thinking the same myself. Why are the poll aggregators so jumpy about new polls? Annoyed, I put together a poll aggregator that took a state-space approach to the unobserved preferences; nothing more than the 8 schools (14 polls?) example with a time-varying […] The post Smooth poll aggregation using state-space modeling in Stan, from Jim Savage appeared…

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“What can recent replication failures tell us about the theoretical commitments of psychology?”

August 6, 2016
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“What can recent replication failures tell us about the theoretical commitments of psychology?”

Psychology/philosophy professor Stan Klein was motivated by our power pose discussion to send along this article which seems to me to be a worthy entry in what I’ve lately been calling “the literature of exasperation,” following in the tradition of Meehl etc. I offer one minor correction. Klein writes, “I have no doubt that the […] The post “What can recent replication failures tell us about the theoretical commitments of…

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Yet the Worst Olympic Chart

August 6, 2016
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Yet the Worst Olympic Chart

Ah, the numbers! The Olympic Games are back in high style in Rio. Despite Brazil’s sluggish economy and unfulfilled promises for this Summer Olympic Games, I’d say, my expectations were met yesterday with such a beautiful opening ceremony. Let’s ...

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