The Beta Prior, Likelihood, and Posterior

September 5, 2013
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The Beta Prior, Likelihood, and Posterior

The Beta distribution (and more generally the Dirichlet) are probably my favorite distributions.  However, sometimes only limited information is available when trying set up the distribution.  For example maybe you only know the lowest likely value, the highest likely value and the median, as a measure of center.  That information is sufficient to construct a […]

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SPSS looked great! 20 years ago…

September 4, 2013
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SPSS looked great! 20 years ago…

For some reason someone dropped a pamphlet advertising SPSS for Windows 3.0 in my mail box at work. This means that the pamphlet, and the advertised version of SPSS, should be at least 20 years old! These days I’m happily using R for everything but...

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Repost: A proposal for a really fast statistics journal

September 4, 2013
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Editor's note: This is a repost of a previous Simply Statistics column that seems to be relevant again in light of Marie Davidian's really important column on the peer review process. You should also check out Yihui's thoughts on this, … Continue reading →

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Does it matter that a sample is unrepresentative? It depends on the size of the treatment interactions

September 4, 2013
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In my article about implausible p-values in psychology studies, I wrote: “Women Are More Likely to Wear Red or Pink at Peak Fertility,” by Alec Beall and Jessica Tracy, is based on two samples: a self-selected sample of 100 women from the Internet, and 24 undergraduates at the University of British Columbia. . . . […]The post Does it matter that a sample is unrepresentative? It depends on the size…

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C/C++: Variance, Standard Deviation and Coefficient of Variation

September 4, 2013
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C/C++: Variance, Standard Deviation and Coefficient of Variation

Output: C Codes: C++ Codes:

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Growth and Debt (Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View)

September 4, 2013
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In which the relationship (if any) between GDP growth and government debt forms a bridge between causal inference and time series analysis. Assignment, debt.csv Update, 2 May: I have given up on posting solutions, but in this case I will make an exc...

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Time Series (Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View)

September 4, 2013
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What time series are. Properties: autocorrelation or serial correlation; other notions of serial dependence; strong and weak stationarity. The correlation time and the world's simplest ergodic theorem; effective sample size. The meaning of ergodici...

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Final Exam (Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View)

September 4, 2013
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In which we are devoted to two problems of political economy, viz., strikes, and macroeconomic forecasting. Assignment; macro.csv Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View

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Self-Evaluation and Lessons Learned (Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View)

September 4, 2013
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Attention conservation notice: Navel-gazing about teaching. Well, that was exhausting. Everything seemed to take me at least as much effort and time as the year before, despite recycling a lot of material. There continues to not be enough manpower ...

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Class Announcement: 36-350, Statistical Computing

September 4, 2013
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It's that time of year again: 36-350, Statistical Computing Description: Computational data analysis is an essential part of modern statistics. Competent statisticians must not just be able to run existing programs, but to understand the principles ...

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Basic Data Types and Data Structures (Introduction to Statistical Computing)

September 4, 2013
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Introduction to the course: statistical programming for autonomy, honesty, and clarity of thought. The functional programming idea: write code by building functions to transform input data into desired outputs. Basic data types: Booleans, integers, ...

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Lab: Basic Probability, Basic Data Structures (Introduction to Statistical Computing)

September 4, 2013
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In which we play around with basic data structures and convince ourself that the laws of probability are, in fact, right. (Or perhaps that R's random number generator is pretty good.) Lab Introduction to Statistical Computing

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Rainfall, Data Structures, Obsessive Doodling (Introduction to Statistical Computing)

September 4, 2013
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In which we practice working with data frames, grapple with some of the subtleties of R's system of data types, and calculate the consequences of doodling while bored in lecture. Assignment, due at 11:59 pm on Thursday, 5 September 2013 Introductio...

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Flow Control, Iteration, Vectorizing (Introduction to Statistical Computing)

September 4, 2013
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Lecture 3: Conditioning the calculation on the data: if; what is truth?; Boolean operators again; switch. Iteration to repeat similar calculations: for and iterating over a vector; while and conditional iteration (reducing for to while); repeat and u...

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Use this chart at your own peril

September 4, 2013
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Use this chart at your own peril

On Twitter, Joe D. disliked the following chart on the Information is Beautiful blog: *** The chart carries a long list of flaws. The column labeled "%" is probably the most jarring. The meaning of these numbers changes with the...

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Another Look at Many Eyes, 18 Months Later

September 4, 2013
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Another Look at Many Eyes, 18 Months Later

In February of last year, I wrote a posting based on some data I had scraped from Many Eyes, and criticizing where I thought it was going (or not going). Here is an update, eighteen months later, of some of the things that have happened in the meantime, and some new data. My interest in […]

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Gelman’s response to my comment on Jaynes

September 4, 2013
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Gelman’s response to my comment on Jaynes

Gelman responds to the comment[i] I made on my 8/31/13 post: Popper and Jaynes Posted by Andrew on 3 September 2013 Deborah Mayo quotes me as saying, “Popper has argued (convincingly, in my opinion) that scientific inference is not inductive but deductive.” She then follows up with: Gelman employs significance test-type reasoning to reject a model when the data sufficiently disagree. […]

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Popper and Jaynes

September 3, 2013
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Popper and Jaynes

Deborah Mayo quotes me as saying, “Popper has argued (convincingly, in my opinion) that scientific inference is not inductive but deductive.” She then follows up with: Gelman employs significance test-type reasoning to reject a model when the data sufficiently disagree. Now, strictly speaking, a model falsification, even to inferring something as weak as “the model […]The post Popper and Jaynes appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Is Economics too Important for Economists?

September 3, 2013
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Like piranha fish in a feeding frenzy, different research tribes fight furiously to stake claims in new areas like financial engineering and risk management. Fringe players, in particular, often strive to move toward the center, or to redefine the cent...

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The inutility of stacking columns

September 3, 2013
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The inutility of stacking columns

When I see a stacked column chart like this: (via Andrew Sullivan) I immediately want to remake it as a line chart, like this: The decline in households with two parents and children appears more dramatic in the line chart,...

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Evaluating evidence from published research

September 3, 2013
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Following up on my entry the other day on post-publication peer review, Dan Kahan writes: You give me credit, I think, for merely participating in what I think is a systemic effect in the practice of empirical inquiry that conduces to quality control & hence the advance of knowledge by such means (likely the title […]The post Evaluating evidence from published research appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Statistics and Big Data: a pending marriage

September 3, 2013
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The current issue of Significance includes an article by me on the "pending marriage between statistics and Big Data". If you are a member of either the American Statistical Association or the Royal Statistical Society, you should be able to access the article via this link. If you don't belong to one of those, and you have a smartphone or tablet, you can download the Significance app -- because 2013…

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Visitors

September 3, 2013
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Visitors

I wasn't really a great fan of the show when I was growing up, and I also think (hope!) that the picture is not fitting to what I'm about to say...But when I was at BayesPharma earlier this year, Miguel Negrín has kindly invited me to v...

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