Predictive Accuracy Rankings by MSE vs. MAE

October 25, 2015
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We've all ranked forecast accuracy by mean squared error (MSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), the two great workhorses of relative accuracy comparison. MSE-rankings and MAE-rankings often agree, but they certainly don't have to -- they're simply differ...

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Top 5 movies about scientists

October 25, 2015
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Top 5 movies about scientists

In this NYT interview, Philip “Stanford Prison Experiment” Zimbardo gives his list: 1. “Madame Curie,” 1943 2. “The Seven-Per-Cent Solution,” 1976 3. “Awakenings,” 1990 4. “The Insider,” 1999 5. “The Imitation Game,” 2014. Not a very impressive list. But that’s the point, I guess: there haven’t been many good movies about scientists. I was racking […] The post Top 5 movies about scientists appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Not So Standard Deviations: Episode 3 – Gilmore Girls

October 25, 2015
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I just uploaded Episode 3 of Not So Standard Deviations so check your feeds. In this episode Hilary and I talk about our jobs and the life of the data scientist in both academia and the tech industry. It turns out that they're not as different as I would have thought. Download the audio file for this

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House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
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House Effects in Argentinian polling

I’ve already posted previously on “house effects”, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another. In this post, I look specifically at these house effects, and show which polling organizations over...

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House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
By
House Effects in Argentinian polling

I’ve already posted previously on “house effects”, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another. In this post, I look specifically at these house effects, and show which polling organizations over...

Read more »

House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
By
House Effects in Argentinian polling

I’ve already posted on ‘house effects’, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another I’ve already posted on “house effects”, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary...

Read more »

House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
By
House Effects in Argentinian polling

I've already posted on 'house effects', the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another I've already posted on "house effects", the tendency of polling organizations to syste...

Read more »

House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
By
House Effects in Argentinian polling

I've already posted on 'house effects', the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another I've already posted on "house effects", the tendency of polling organizations to syste...

Read more »

House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
By
House Effects in Argentinian polling

I've already posted on 'house effects', the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another I've already posted on "house effects", the tendency of polling organizations to syste...

Read more »

House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
By
House Effects in Argentinian polling

I’ve already posted on ‘house effects’, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another I’ve already posted on “house effects”, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary...

Read more »

House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
By
House Effects in Argentinian polling

I’ve already posted on ‘house effects’, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another I’ve already posted on “house effects”, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary...

Read more »

House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
By
House Effects in Argentinian polling

I’ve already posted on ‘house effects’, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another I’ve already posted on “house effects”, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary...

Read more »

House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
By
House Effects in Argentinian polling

I’ve already posted on ‘house effects’, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another I’ve already posted on “house effects”, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary...

Read more »

House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
By
House Effects in Argentinian polling

I’ve already posted on ‘house effects’, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another I’ve already posted on “house effects”, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary...

Read more »

House Effects in Argentinian polling

October 25, 2015
By
House Effects in Argentinian polling

I’ve already posted on “house effects”, the tendency of polling organizations to systematically vary in their results from one another. In this post, I look specifically at these house effects, and show which polling organisations over or under...

Read more »

3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

October 24, 2015
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3 YEARS AGO (OCTOBER 2012): MEMORY LANE

3 years ago… MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: October 2012. I mark in red three posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog.[1] Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group of “U-Phils” count as one, and there are two such groupings this month. The 10/18 “Query” gave rise to a […]

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Meet the 1 doctor in America who has no opinion on whether cigarette smoking contributes to lung cancer in human beings.

October 24, 2015
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Meet the 1 doctor in America who has no opinion on whether cigarette smoking contributes to lung cancer in human beings.

Paul Alper writes: In your blog today you once again criticize Tol’s putative results regarding global warming: “At no point did Tol apologize or thank the people who pointed out his errors; instead he lashed out, over and over again. Irresponsible indeed.” Well, here is something far more irresponsible and depressing. Read Susan Perry: Why […] The post Meet the 1 doctor in America who has no opinion on whether…

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Diagnosing the Multilevel Marketting Trap: How MLM Survives Only through New Entrants

October 24, 2015
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Diagnosing the Multilevel Marketting Trap: How MLM Survives Only through New Entrants

Over the years I have been amazed by how many friends of mine who seem otherwise very intelligent have gotten involved in Multilevel Marketing (MLM).And, as most people who have been involved with these organizations, all of my friends involved in thes...

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Bayes meets Fourier

October 23, 2015
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Bayes meets Fourier

Joseph Fourier never met Thomas Bayes—Fourier was born in 1768, seven years after Bayes died.  But recently I have been exploring connections between the Bayes filter and the Fourier transform. By "Bayes filter", I don't mean spam filtering usin...

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Victor Zarnowitz and the Jewish Diaspora

October 23, 2015
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Let me be clear: I'm a German/Irish Philadelphia Catholic (with a bit more mixed in...), a typical present-day product of nineteenth-century U.S. immigration. So what do I really know about the Jewish experience, and why am I fit to pontificate (so to ...

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3 reasons why you can’t always use predictive performance to choose among models

October 23, 2015
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3 reasons why you can’t always use predictive performance to choose among models

A couple years ago Wei and I published a paper, Difficulty of selecting among multilevel models using predictive accuracy, in which we . . . well, we discussed the difficulty of selecting among multilevel models using predictive accuracy. The paper happened as follows. We’d been fitting hierarchical logistic regressions of poll data and I had […] The post 3 reasons why you can’t always use predictive performance to choose among…

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Is it worth the drama?

October 23, 2015
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Is it worth the drama?

Quite the eye-catching chart this: The original accompanied this article in the Wall Street Journal about avian flu outbreaks in the U.S. The point of the chart appears to be the peak in the flu season around May. The overlapping...

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Statisticians ruin the day again, this time with a retraction

October 22, 2015
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Statisticians ruin the day again, this time with a retraction

Authors retract second study about medical uses of honey - Retraction Watch at Retraction Watch: For the second time, authors of manuscripts have had to retract their papers because of serious data analysis errors. While the details of the actual error...

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