This stumps job applicants all the time (although probably not after this post). I flip a coin two times. Given that at least one of the flips is heads, what's the probability that both flips are heads. 50% you say? Sorry, but no. Don't feel bad...

This stumps job applicants all the time (although probably not after this post). I flip a coin two times. Given that at least one of the flips is heads, what's the probability that both flips are heads. 50% you say? Sorry, but no. Don't feel bad...

Music and snow. Poke my eyes out Perhaps your immediate response is: “I’d rather poke my eyes out with a burning stick than do data analysis.” There’s a completely different reaction from a lot of people who have experienced data analysis. Music It’s not entirely clear why humans like music so much. Part of it […] The post The joy of data analysis appeared first on Burns Statistics.

It was over a year since my original post, Backtesting Asset Allocation portfolios. I have expanded the functionality of the Systematic Investor Toolbox both in terms of optimization functions and helper back-test functions during this period. Today, I want to update the Backtesting Asset Allocation portfolios post and showcase new functionality. I will use the […]

Don’t you wish there was a way to comment on papers? Now there is. Thanks to the efforts of Rob Tibshirani, Pat Brown, Mike Eisen, David Lipman and others there is now a system called PubMed Commons. PubMed is the central repository for biomedical research. PubMed Commons allows people to have active discussions of papers. […]

Ben Highton and Matt Buttice point us to this response addressing some of the issues Jeff Lax raised in his most recent MRP post. P.S. Jeff replies in comments: It sounds like we’ve converged. They acknowledge MRP performance is significantly better on average than reported in their new paper in PA and yet performance variation […]The post Can’t Stop Won’t Stop Mister P Beatdown appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

There has been a lot of discussion of peer review on this blog and elsewhere. One thing I realized is that no one ever formally taught me the point of peer review or how to write a review. Like a … Continue reading →

Our book is nearly out..! The Springer webpage is ready, we have sent the proofs back, amazon is missing has now included the above picture, things are moving towards the publication date, supposed to be November 30. Just in time for Christmas! And not too early given that we packed off in early February… Filed under: […]

Rob “Lasso” Tibshirani writes: We all read a lot of papers and often have useful things to say about them, but there is no systematic way to do this lots of journals have commenting systems, but they’re clunky, and, most importantly, they’re scattered across thousands of sites. Journals don’t encourage critical comments from readers, […]The post PubMed Commons: A system for commenting on articles in PubMed appeared first on…

A challenge for statistical programmers is getting data into the right form for analysis. For graphing or analyzing data, sometimes the "wide format" (each subject is represented by one row and many variables) is required, but other times the "long format" (observations for each subject span multiple rows) is more [...]

Last week in the non-life insurance course, we’ve seen the theory of the Generalized Linear Models, emphasizing the two important components the link function (which is actually the key component in predictive modeling) the distribution, or the variance function Just to illustrate, consider my favorite dataset lin.mod = lm(dist~speed,data=cars) A linear model means here where the residuals are assumed to be centered, independent, and with identical variance. If we visualize that linear…

There was a flurry of activity on social media yesterday surrounding a blog post by Lior Pachter. He was speaking about the GTEX project - a large NIH funded project that has the goal of understanding expression variation within and … Continue reading →

PubMed, the main database of life sciences and biomedical literature, is now allowing comments and upvotes. Here is more information and the twitter handle is @PubMedCommons.

For a good overview of what OCR is, check out this overview I found myself cutting the spines off books, again. This time it was because I couldn’t find an e-book copy of ‘Animal Liberation’ anywhere on the net, and I’ve amassed quite a few physical copies--mostly from garage sales--that I could afford to experiment »more

Nurit Baytch posted a document, A Critique of Ron Unz’s Article “The Myth of American Meritocracy”, that is relevant to an ongoing discussion we had on this blog. Baytch’s article begins: In “The Myth of American Meritocracy,” Ron Unz, the publisher of The American Conservative, claimed that Harvard discriminates against non-Jewish white and Asian students […]The post Ivy Jew update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

If you know any statistics, you know "sampling". It's the idea of measuring some subset of the population. Using the Law of Large Numbers, you are able to learn from the sample and generalize to the population. Your Stats professor never told you what "unsampling" is. You're not going to find this word in a statistics textbook either. What does it mean? The "un" implies that you can recover the…

What I’ve learned from updating the blogroll. New entries The easy option is to go to The Whole Street which aggregates lots of quant finance blogs. Somehow Bookstaber missed out being on the blogroll before — definitely an oversight. Timely Portfolio was another that I was surprised wasn’t already there. The R Trader talks about … Continue reading →