Laurie Davies: time series decomposition of birthday data

January 17, 2017
By

On the cover of BDA3 is a Bayesian decomposition of the time series of birthdays in the U.S. over a 20-year period. We modeled the data as a sum of Gaussian processes and fit it using GPstuff. Occasionally we fit this model to new data; see for example this discussion of Friday the 13th and […] The post Laurie Davies: time series decomposition of birthday data appeared first on Statistical…

Read more »

Stan is hiring! hiring! hiring! hiring!

January 17, 2017
By

[insert picture of adorable cat entwined with Stan logo] We’re hiring postdocs to do Bayesian inference. We’re hiring programmers for Stan. We’re hiring a project manager. How many people we hire depends on what gets funded. But we’re hiring a few people for sure. We want the best best people who love to collaborate, who […] The post Stan is hiring! hiring! hiring! hiring! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

Read more »

Impulse Responses From Smooth Local Projections

January 16, 2017
By

Check out Barnichon-Brownlees (2017) (BB).  As proposed and developed in Jorda (2005), they estimate impulse-response functions (IRF's) directly by projecting outcomes on estimates of structural shocks at various horizons, as opposed to inver...

Read more »

Powerpose update

January 16, 2017
By
Powerpose update

I contacted Anna Dreber, one of the authors of the paper that failed to replicate power pose, and asked her about a particular question that came up regarding their replication study. One of the authors of the original power pose study wrote that the replication “varied methodologically in about a dozen ways — some of […] The post Powerpose update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Read more »

PUT it there! Six tips for using PUT and %PUT statements in SAS

January 16, 2017
By
PUT it there! Six tips for using PUT and %PUT statements in SAS

For SAS programmers, the PUT statement in the DATA step and the %PUT macro statement are useful statements that enable you to display the values of variables and macro variables, respectively. By default, the output appears in the SAS log. This article shares a few tips that help you to [...] The post PUT it there! Six tips for using PUT and %PUT statements in SAS appeared first on The…

Read more »

New Series: ISOTYPE Books

January 16, 2017
By
New Series: ISOTYPE Books

Presenting facts through data is not a recent idea. Otto and Marie Neurath created ISOTYPE in the 1920s and then ran their ISOTYPE Institute for more than two decades. During that time, they created charts for a wide variety of publications. In this series, I will show a number of these charts that I have […]

Read more »

The Class-size debate – it matters to teachers

January 16, 2017
By
The Class-size debate – it matters to teachers

Class size matters to teachers Class size is a perennial question in education. What is the ideal size for a school class? Teachers would like smaller classes, to improve learning. There is evidence of a small positive effect size due … Continue reading →

Read more »

To know the past, one must first know the future: The relevance of decision-based thinking to statistical analysis

January 15, 2017
By

We can break up any statistical problem into three steps: 1. Design and data collection. 2. Data analysis. 3. Decision making. It’s well known that step 1 typically requires some thought of steps 2 and 3: It is only when you have a sense of what you will do with your data, that you can […] The post To know the past, one must first know the future: The relevance…

Read more »

Beginners Exercise: Bayesian Computation with Stan and Farmer Jöns

January 15, 2017
By
Beginners Exercise: Bayesian Computation with Stan and Farmer Jöns

Over the last two years I’ve occasionally been giving a very basic tutorial to Bayesian statistics using R and Stan. At the end of the tutorial I hand out an exercise for those that want to flex their newly acquired skills. I call this exercise Bay...

Read more »

Frank Harrell statistics blog!

January 14, 2017
By

Frank Harrell, author of an influential book on regression modeling and currently both a biostatistics professor and a statistician at the Food and Drug Administration, has started a blog. He sums up “some of his personal philosophy of statistics” here: Statistics needs to be fully integrated into research; experimental design is all important Don’t be […] The post Frank Harrell statistics blog! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

Read more »

RStudio Conference 2017 Recap

January 14, 2017
By
RStudio Conference 2017 Recap

The first ever RStudio conference was held January 11-14, 2017 in Orlando, FL. For anyone else like me who spends hours each working day staring into an RStudio session, the conference was truly excellent. The speaker lineup was diverse and covered lot...

Read more »

RStudio Conference 2017 Recap

January 14, 2017
By
RStudio Conference 2017 Recap

The first ever RStudio conference was held January 11-14, 2017 in Orlando, FL. For anyone else like me who spends hours each working day staring into an RStudio session, the conference was truly excellent. The speaker lineup was diverse and covered lot...

Read more »

No evidence of incumbency disadvantage?

January 14, 2017
By
No evidence of incumbency disadvantage?

Several years ago I learned that the incumbency advantage in India was negative! There, the politicians are so unpopular that when they run for reelection they’re actually at a disadvantage, on average, compared to fresh candidates. At least, that’s what I heard. But Andy Hall and Anthony Fowler just wrote a paper claiming that, no, […] The post No evidence of incumbency disadvantage? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

Vintage Years in Econometrics – The 1970′s

January 14, 2017
By
Vintage Years in Econometrics – The 1970′s

Continuing on from my earlier posts about vintage years for econometrics in the 1930's, 1940's, 1950's, 1960's, here's my tasting guide for the 1970's.Once again, let me note that "in econometrics, what constitutes quality and importance is partly a ma...

Read more »

Stan JSS paper out: “Stan: A probabilistic programming language”

January 13, 2017
By
Stan JSS paper out:  “Stan: A probabilistic programming language”

As a surprise welcome to 2017, our paper on how the Stan language works along with an overview of how the MCMC and optimization algorithms work hit the stands this week. Bob Carpenter, Andrew Gelman, Matthew D. Hoffman, Daniel Lee, Ben Goodrich, Michael Betancourt, Marcus Brubaker, Jiqiang Guo, Peter Li, and Allen Riddell. 2017. Stan: […] The post Stan JSS paper out: “Stan: A probabilistic programming language” appeared first on…

Read more »

New year resolution

January 13, 2017
By
New year resolution

Now that the Christmas break is just a distant memory (Marta would say that I am quite happy with that $-$ she thinks I'm like the Grinch around the Christmas holiday. And she is right), I've given way to my new year's resolution of finally, prope...

Read more »

Problems with “incremental validity” or more generally in interpreting more than one regression coefficient at a time

January 13, 2017
By
Problems with “incremental validity” or more generally in interpreting more than one regression coefficient at a time

Kevin Lewis points us to this interesting paper by Jacob Westfall and Tal Yarkoni entitled, “Statistically Controlling for Confounding Constructs Is Harder than You Think.” Westfall and Yarkoni write: A common goal of statistical analysis in the social sciences is to draw inferences about the relative contributions of different variables to some outcome variable. When […] The post Problems with “incremental validity” or more generally in interpreting more than one…

Read more »

Math Rendering Problem Fixed

January 13, 2017
By

The problem with math rendering in the recent post, "All of Machine Learning in One Expression", is now fixed (I hope).  That is, the math should now look like math, not LaTeX code, on all devices. 

Read more »

“A Conceptual Introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo”

January 12, 2017
By
“A Conceptual Introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo”

Michael Betancourt writes: Hamiltonian Monte Carlo has proven a remarkable empirical success, but only recently have we begun to develop a rigorous understanding of why it performs so well on difficult problems and how it is best applied in practice. Unfortunately, that understanding is con- fined within the mathematics of differential geometry which has limited […] The post “A Conceptual Introduction to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo” appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

Read more »

A small, underpowered treasure trove?

January 12, 2017
By
A small, underpowered treasure trove?

Benjamin Kirkup writes: As you sometimes comment on such things; I’m forwarding you a journal editorial (in a society journal) that presents “lessons learned” from an associated research study. What caught my attention was the comment on the “notorious” design, the lack of “significant” results, and the “interesting data on nonsignificant associations.” Apparently, the work […] The post A small, underpowered treasure trove? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

Read more »

The Prior: Fully comprehended last, put first, checked the least?

January 11, 2017
By
The Prior: Fully comprehended last, put first, checked the least?

Priors are important in Bayesian inference. Some would even say : ” In Bayesian inference you can—OK, you must—assign a prior distribution representing the set of values the coefficient [i.e any unknown parameter] can be.” Although priors are put first in most expositions, my sense is that in most applications they are seldom considered first, are […] The post The Prior: Fully comprehended last, put first, checked the least? appeared first…

Read more »

StanCon 2017 Schedule

January 11, 2017
By
StanCon 2017 Schedule

The first Stan Conference is next Saturday, January 21, 2017! If you haven’t registered, here’s the link: https://stancon2017.eventbrite.com I wouldn’t wait until the last minute—we might sell out before you’re able to grab a ticket. We’re up to 125 registrants now. If we have any space left, tickets will be $400 at the door. Schedule. […] The post StanCon 2017 Schedule appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social…

Read more »

When do stories work, Process tracing, and Connections between qualitative and quantitative research

January 11, 2017
By
When do stories work, Process tracing, and Connections between qualitative and quantitative research

Jonathan Stray writes: I read your “when do stories work” paper (with Thomas Basbøll) with interest—as a journalist stories are of course central to my field. I wondered if you had encountered the “process tracing” literature in political science? It attempts to make sense of stories as “case studies” and there’s a nice logic of […] The post When do stories work, Process tracing, and Connections between qualitative and quantitative…

Read more »


Subscribe

Email:

  Subscribe