## Statistical alchemy and the "test for excess significance"

March 23, 2015
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[This post is based largely on my 2013 article for Journal of Mathematical Psychology; see the other articles in that special issue as well for more critiques.]When I tell people that my primary area of research is statistical methods, one of the reactions I often encounter from people untrained in statistics is that “you can prove anything with statistics.” Of course, this rankles, first because it isn't true (unless you…

## Vectors that have a fractional number of elements

March 23, 2015
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The title of this article makes no sense. How can the number of elements (in fact, the number of anything!) not be a whole number? In fact, it can't. However, the title refers to the fact that you might compute a quantity that ought to be an integer, but is […]

## Complications

March 23, 2015
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In watches, a complication is anything that goes beyond the basic function of showing the current time: alarm time, moon phase, etc.  I think the term should be adopted in user interface design and visualization. With their upcoming Watch, Apple is clearly playing to horology and the long history behind the design of classic watches. They … Continue reading Complications

## Judy Garland (4) vs. John Waters (1); Carlin advances

March 22, 2015
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Not a lot of action on yesterday‘s post, so I don’t think the winner will advance any farther . . . But, in any case, I’ll call it for Carlin based on Jonathan’s amusing babble of postmodernist commentary. As for today: What can you say? A great pairing to close out the second round of […] The post Judy Garland (4) vs. John Waters (1); Carlin advances appeared first on…

## Translators!

March 22, 2015
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Which is the working model helping to get the best results from data? It’s not a specific qualification alone, it’s …Continue reading →

## Why I don’t use the terms “fixed” and “random” (again)

March 22, 2015
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A couple months ago we discussed this question from Sean de Hoon: In many cross-national comparative studies, mixed effects models are being used in which a number of slopes are fixed and the slopes of one or two variables of interested are allowed to vary across countries. The aim is often then to explain the […] The post Why I don’t use the terms “fixed” and “random” (again) appeared first…

## Regression Models, It’s Not Only About Interpretation

March 22, 2015
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$k$

Yesterday, I did upload a post where I tried to show that “standard” regression models where not performing bad. At least if you include splines (multivariate splines) to take into accound joint effects, and nonlinearities. So far, I do not discuss the possible high number of features (but with boostrap procedures, it is possible to assess something related to variable importance, that people from machine learning like). But my post…

## Launch into space

March 22, 2015
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I saw a link to a list with all rocket launches into space the other day. This post contains some plots concerning day of launch made from that.DataData is a fixed format file with eleven columns. Reading fixed format is not very difficult, however, it...

## June and July workshops in doing Bayesian data analysis

March 22, 2015
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June and July courses in Bayesian statistics. A full list of workshops in doing Bayesian data analysis is here. Upcoming workshops include these:2015 June 1 - 5. Five-day course: Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, at Stats Camp, Dallas, Texas.2015 June 15-1...

## I’m all about that bootstrap (’bout that bootstrap)

March 21, 2015
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As some of my regular readers may know, I'm in the middle of writing a book on introductory data analysis with R. I'm at the point in the writing of the book now where I have to make some hard… Continue reading →

## Principal Component Analysis in 6 steps

March 21, 2015
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A common-sense explanation of PCA, and how to do it yourself in six steps.

## George Carlin (2) vs. Jacques Derrida; Updike advances

March 21, 2015
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Yesterday‘s best comment comes from Zbicyclist, who wrote: My wife would prefer I not go to a talk by someone who wrote so extensively about adultery. But of course that would rule out both John Updike and Bertrand Russell. We could use “number of wives” as a tiebreaker, but instead I’ll go with Updike based […] The post George Carlin (2) vs. Jacques Derrida; Updike advances appeared first on Statistical…

## “How the Internet Scooped Science (and What Science Still Has to Offer)”

March 21, 2015
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Brian Silver pointed me to this post from Andrew Lindner: This week, my manuscript, co-authored by Melissa Lindquist and Julie Arnold, “Million Dollar Maybe? The Effect of Female Presence in Movies on Box Office Returns” was published online by Sociological Inquiry. It will appear in print later this year. So far, no surprises. A researcher […] The post “How the Internet Scooped Science (and What Science Still Has to Offer)”…

## Objectivity in Statistics: “Arguments From Discretion and 3 Reactions”

March 21, 2015
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We constantly hear that procedures of inference are inescapably subjective because of the latitude of human judgment as it bears on the collection, modeling, and interpretation of data. But this is seriously equivocal: Being the product of a human subject is hardly the same as being subjective, at least not in the sense we are […]

## EViews 9 is Now Released

March 21, 2015
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Great news today - EViews 9 has now been released.You can read the earlier posts that I prepared while testing the Beta version of EV9 here, here, and here.Congratulations to the team at EViews on this latest development!© 2015, David E. Giles

## On Some Alternatives to Regression Models

March 20, 2015
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$\mathbb{E}[Y\vert\boldsymbol{X}=\boldsymbol{x}]=m(\boldsymbol{x})$

When you start discussing with people in machine learning, you quickly hear something like “forget your econometric models, your GLMs, I can easily find a machine learning ‘model’ that can beat yours”. I am usually very sceptical, especially when I hear “easily” or “always“. I have no problem about the fact that I use old econometric models, but I had the feeling that things aren’t that easy. I can understand…

## John Updike vs. Bertrand Russell; Nietzsche advances

March 20, 2015
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In yesterday‘s bout, another founder of religion falls, thanks to this comment by Zbicyclist: Do we want an audience full of would-be Ubermensches, or an audience of the proletariat? Considering Columbia is an Ivy League school, I guess we have to go with the Ubermensches. And today’s contest features the eminently sane conservative vs. the […] The post John Updike vs. Bertrand Russell; Nietzsche advances appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## What Consumers Learn Before Deciding to Buy: Representation Learning

March 20, 2015
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Features form the basis for much of our preference modeling. When asked to explain one's preferences, features are typically accepted as appropriate reasons: this job paid more, that candidate supports tax reform, or it was closer to home. We believe t...

## Bayesian models, causal inference, and time-varying exposures

March 20, 2015
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Mollie Wood writes: I am a doctoral student in clinical and population health research. My dissertation research is on prenatal medication exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes in children, and I’ve encountered a difficult problem that I hope you might be able to advise me on. I am working on a problem in which my main exposure […] The post Bayesian models, causal inference, and time-varying exposures appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## It’s Analytics Survey Time!

March 20, 2015
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Every other year Rexer Analytics surveys Data Analysts, Predictive Modelers, Data Scientists, Data Miners, and all other types of analytic professionals, students, and academics regarding the software they use.  I then update the main results in The Popularity of Data Analysis … Continue reading →

## Two new interviews

March 20, 2015
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I was recently interviewed as part of a promotion for the Monash Business School. The interviews can be watched below if anyone is interested. The titles chosen weren’t my ideas. Predicting the future: pushing the boundaries of electricity forecastin...

## Conference in Honour of Aman Ullah

March 19, 2015
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Last weekend, a small conference was held to honour Aman Ullah, a Distinguished Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of California, Riverside. I was to have participated in this gathering, but regrettably those plans had to b...

## The synoptic problem and statistics [book review]

March 19, 2015
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A book that came to me for review in CHANCE and that came completely unannounced is Andris Abakuks’ The Synoptic Problem and Statistics.  “Unannounced” in that I had not heard so far of the synoptic problem. This problem is one of ordering and connecting the gospels in the New Testament, more precisely the “synoptic” gospels […]