Bayesian analysis of gluten sensitivity

September 1, 2015
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Bayesian analysis of gluten sensitivity

Last week a new study showed that many subjects diagnosed with non-celiac gluten sensitivity (NCGS) were not able to distinguish gluten flour from non-gluten flour in a blind challenge.In this article, I review the the study and use a simple Bayesian m...

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Ahead of their Time

September 1, 2015
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Ahead of their Time

A picture helps understanding facts  – and this since hundreds of years. Investintech presents a (very) short insight in the history of data visualisation. Playfair For visualisation of statistics, William Playfair is a very important pioneer. More about William Playfair in this blog post:      Filed under: 031 Data visualization Tagged: data, history, visualisation

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Ahead of their Time

September 1, 2015
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Ahead of their Time

A picture helps understanding facts  – and this since hundreds of years. Investintech presents a (very) short insight in the history of data visualisation. Playfair For visualisation of statistics, William Playfair is a very important pioneer. More about William Playfair in this blog post:      Filed under: 031 Data visualization Tagged: data, history, visualisation

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Stan attribution

September 1, 2015
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Stan attribution

I worry that I get too much credit for Stan. So let me clarify. I didn’t write Stan. Stan is written in C++, and I’ve never in my life written a line of C, or C+, or C++, or C+++, or C-, or any of these things. Here’s a quick description of what we’ve all […] The post Stan attribution appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, April 2015

September 1, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Christian Caryl, Strange Rebels: 1979 and the Birth of the 21st Century A very nicely written popular history of five movements that either began or reached a peak in 1979: the Iranian Revolution, the...

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Bayesian regression models using Stan in R

September 1, 2015
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Bayesian regression models using Stan in R

It seems the summer is coming to end in London, so I shall take a final look at my ice cream data that I have been playing around with to predict sales statistics based on temperature for the last couple of weeks [1], [2], [3].Here I will use the new b...

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The Paradox of Replication, and the vindication of the P-value (but she can go deeper) 9/2/15 update (ii)

September 1, 2015
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The Paradox of Replication, and the vindication of the P-value (but she can go deeper) 9/2/15 update (ii)

The Paradox of Replication Critic 1: It’s much too easy to get small P-values. Critic 2: We find it very difficult to get small P-values; only 36 of 100 psychology experiments were found to yield small P-values in the recent Open Science collaboration on replication (in psychology). Is it easy or is it hard? You might say, […]

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likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional models

August 31, 2015
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likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional models

“…for a general linear model (GLM), a single linear function is a sufficient statistic for each associated parameter…” The recently arXived paper “Likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional models“, by Kousathanas et al. (July 2015), proposes an ABC resolution of the dimensionality curse [when the dimension of the parameter and of the corresponding summary statistics] by turning […]

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likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional models

August 31, 2015
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likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional models

“…for a general linear model (GLM), a single linear function is a sufficient statistic for each associated parameter…” The recently arXived paper “Likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional models“, by Kousathanas et al. (July 2015), proposes an ABC resolution of the dimensionality curse [when the dimension of the parameter and of the corresponding summary statistics] by turning […]

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Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis

August 31, 2015
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Chris Guure writes: I am trying to construct an informative prior by synthesizing or collecting some information from literature (meta-analysis) and then to apply that to a real data set (it is longitudinal data) for over 20 years follow-up. In constructing the prior using the meta-analysis data, the issue of publication bias came up. I […] The post Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured

August 31, 2015
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Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured

I agree with Uri Simonsohn that you don’t learn much by looking at the distribution of all the p-values that have appeared in some literature. Uri explains: Most p-values reported in most papers are irrelevant for the strategic behavior of interest. Covariates, manipulation checks, main effects in studies testing interactions, etc. Including them we underestimate […] The post Uri Simonsohn warns us not to be falsely reassured appeared first on…

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On deck this week

August 31, 2015
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Mon: Constructing an informative prior using meta-analysis Tues: Stan attribution Wed: Cannabis/IQ follow-up: Same old story Thurs: Defining conditional probability Fri: In defense of endless arguments Sat: Emails I never finished reading Sun: B...

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More shallow science on obesity measures

August 31, 2015
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More shallow science on obesity measures

For those who read the New York Times's stories denigrating BMI as an obesity metric, you have heard only a small part of the story. Their latest senasationalist coverage says that 18% of BMI-obese people are not really obese, with 12% labeled as "healthy obese" and 6% called "skinny fat". This is a major missed opportunity by an important newspaper in promoting deeper thinking about scientific data. The first question…

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Compute the number of digits in an integer

August 31, 2015
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Compute the number of digits in an integer

The title of this blog post might seem strange, but I occasionally need to compute the number of digits in a number, usually because I am trying to stuff an integer value into a string. Each time, I have to derive the formula from scratch, so I am writing this […] The post Compute the number of digits in an integer appeared first on The DO Loop.

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20 ways to improve as a teacher of statistics (Part 1)

August 31, 2015
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20 ways to improve as a teacher of statistics (Part 1)

It embarrasses me to look back on how I taught statistics ten years ago. Were I still teaching in a university, I would not be teaching the same things the same way I did then. I did the best I … Continue reading →

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20 ways to improve as a teacher of statistics (Part 1)

August 31, 2015
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20 ways to improve as a teacher of statistics (Part 1)

It embarrasses me to look back on how I taught statistics ten years ago. Were I still teaching in a university, I would not be teaching the same things the same way I did then. I did the best I … Continue reading →

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“Another bad chart for you to criticize”

August 30, 2015
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“Another bad chart for you to criticize”

Stuart Buck sends in this Onion-worthy delight: The post “Another bad chart for you to criticize” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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New CEA Overview of GDO

August 29, 2015
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The U.S. Council of Economic Advisors has a nice new review of "Gross Domestic Output" (GDO), a simple average of expenditure- and income-side GDP estimates now published by the BEA.In an earlier post I wrote rather negatively about GDO ...

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Performing design calculations (type M and type S errors) on a routine basis?

August 29, 2015
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Somebody writes writes: I am conducting a survival analysis (median follow up ~10 years) of subjects who enrolled on a prospective, non-randomized clinical trial for newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. The data were originally collected for research purposes and specifically to determine PFS and OS of the investigational regimen versus historic controls. The trial has been […] The post Performing design calculations (type M and type S errors) on a routine…

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New paper on psychology replication

August 28, 2015
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New paper on psychology replication

The Open Science Collaboration, a team led by psychology researcher Brian Nosek, organized the replication of 100 published psychology experiments. They report: A large portion of replications produced weaker evidence for the original findings despite using materials provided by the original authors, review in advance for methodological fidelity, and high statistical power to detect the […] The post New paper on psychology replication appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Bayes theorem in real life

August 27, 2015
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Bayes theorem in real life

I had a chance to practice Bayesian inference in real life today: at 1pm my wife called to tell me that the carbon monoxide (CO) alarm at the house was going off.  Immediately two hypotheses came to mind: (1) there is a dangerous amount of CO in m...

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A political sociological course on statistics for high school students

August 27, 2015
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Ben Frisch writes: I am designing a semester long non-AP Statistics course for high school juniors and seniors. I am wondering if you had some advice for the design of my class. My currentthinking for the design of the class includes: 0) Brief introduction to R/ R Studio and descriptive statistics and data sheet structure. […] The post A political sociological course on statistics for high school students appeared first…

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Data Science for Managers (short course)

August 27, 2015
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Data Science for Managers (short course)

I am teaching part of a short-course on Data Science for Managers from 10–12 October in Melbourne. Course Overview The impact of Data Science on modern business is second only to the introduction of computers. And yet, for many businesses the barrier of entry remains too high due to lack of knowhow, organisational inertia, difficulties […]

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