## Can talk therapy halve the rate of cancer recurrence? How to think about the statistical significance of this finding? Is it just another example of the garden of forking paths?

May 21, 2015
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James Coyne (who we last encountered in the sad story of Ellen Langer) writes: I’m writing to you now about another matter about which I hope you will offer an opinion. Here is a critique of a study, as well as the original study that claimed to find an effect of group psychotherapy on time […] The post Can talk therapy halve the rate of cancer recurrence? How to think…

## Parametric Inference: Likelihood Ratio Test Problem 1

May 21, 2015
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Another post for mathematical statistics, the problem below is originally from Casella and Berger (2001) (see Reference 1), exercise 8.6. ProblemSuppose that we have two independent random samples $X_1,\cdots, X_n$ are exponential($\theta$), and \$Y_1,\...

## BREAKING . . . Princeton decides to un-hire Kim Jong-Un for tenure-track assistant professorship in aeronautical engineering

May 21, 2015
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Full story here. Here’s the official quote: As you’ve correctly noted, at this time the individual is not a Princeton University employee. We will review all available information and determine next steps. And here’s what Kim has to say: I’m gathering evidence and relevant information so I can provide a single comprehensive response. I will […] The post BREAKING . . . Princeton decides to un-hire Kim Jong-Un for tenure-track…

## Bond Yields, Macro Fundamentals, and Policy

May 20, 2015
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Greetings my friends from Eurovision in Vienna. Yes, OK, that's not exactly the real reason I'm here, but still...As I said in an earlier post that stressed DNS/AFNS yield-curve modeling with the zero lower bound imposed, "although ...

## A Pleasant Surprise

May 20, 2015
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I could scarcely believe my good fortune when I opened the following email earlier today:Dear Dr Giles,Congratulations, your paper “Being ‘in’ assessment: The ontological layer(ing) of assessment practice” published in Journal of Applied R...

## “In my previous post on the topic, I expressed surprise at the published claim but no skepticism”

May 20, 2015
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Don’t believe everything you read in the tabloids, that’s for sure. P.S. I googled to see what else was up with this story and found this article which reported that someone claimed that Don Green’s retraction (see above link for details) was the first for political science. I guess it depends on how you define […] The post “In my previous post on the topic, I expressed surprise at the…

## EuroVis Running Club

May 20, 2015
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I’m organizing a very informal running club at EuroVis next week. If you’re attending the conference, don’t forget to bring your running shoes and leave your excuses at home. This is even less organized than than the VIS running club. I’m not going to have you fill out a form. Instead, just drop me an … Continue reading EuroVis Running Club

## Clusters Powerful Enough to Generate Their Own Subspaces

May 20, 2015
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Cluster are groupings that have no external label. We start with entities described by a set of measurements but no rule for sorting them by type. Mixture modeling makes this point explicit with its equation showing how each measurement is an independe...

## Is it species or is it batch? They are confounded, so we can’t know

May 20, 2015
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In a 2005 OMICS paper, an analysis of human and mouse gene expression microarray measurements from several tissues led the authors to conclude that "any tissue is more similar to any other human tissue examined than to its corresponding mouse tissue". Note that this was a rather surprising result given how similar tissues are between species.

## Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn”

May 20, 2015
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Reprinting a classic from 2010: The other day I saw some kids trying to tell knock-knock jokes, The only one they really knew was the one that goes: Knock knock. Who’s there? Banana? Banana who? Knock knock. Who’s there? Banana? Banana who? Knock knock. Who’s there? Orange. Orange who? Orange you glad I didn’t say […] The post Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## Shaking up expectations for pension benefits

May 20, 2015
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Ted Ballachine wrote me about his website Pension360 pointing me to a recent attempt at visualizing pension benefits in various retirement systems in the state of Illinois. The link to the blog post is here. One of the things they...

## Direct me to the nuclear Bessels!

May 20, 2015
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When I was an undergraduate physic major, my favorite professor would start each class with a joke or pun. One day he began class with a paraphrase of a famous quote from the movie Star Trek 4: The Voyage Home (the one with the whales). "Today," my professor said, imitating […] The post Direct me to the nuclear Bessels! appeared first on The DO Loop.

## Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks

May 19, 2015
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This came up in an email exchange regarding a plan to come up with and evaluate Bayesian prediction algorithms for a medical application: I would not refer to the existing prediction algorithm as frequentist. Frequentist refers to the evaluation of statistical procedures but it doesn’t really say where the estimate or prediction comes from. Rather, […] The post Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

## Sequential Bayesian inference for time series

May 19, 2015
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Hello hello, I have just arXived a review article, written for ESAIM: Proceedings and Surveys, called Sequential Bayesian inference for implicit hidden Markov models and current limitations. The topic is sequential Bayesian estimation: you want to perform inference (say, parameter inference, or prediction of future observations), taking into account parameter and model uncertainties, using hidden Markov […]

## Sequential Bayesian inference for time series

May 19, 2015
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Hello hello, I have just arXived a review article, written for ESAIM: Proceedings and Surveys, called Sequential Bayesian inference for implicit hidden Markov models and current limitations. The topic is sequential Bayesian estimation: you want to perform inference (say, parameter inference, or prediction of future observations), taking into account parameter and model uncertainties, using hidden Markov […]

## How Predictable is the English Premier League?

May 19, 2015
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The reason why football is so exciting is uncertainty. The outcome of any match or league is unknown, and you get to watch the action unfold without knowing what’s going to happen. Watching matches where you know the score is never exciting. This weekend the English Premier League season will conclude with little fanfare. Bar […]

## Posterior predictive output with Stan

May 19, 2015
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I continue my Stan experiments with another insurance example. Here I am particular interested in the posterior predictive distribution from only three data points. Or, to put it differently I have a customer of three years and I'd like to predict the ...

## New Alan Turing preprint on Arxiv!

May 19, 2015
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Dan Kahan writes: I know you are on 30-day delay, but since the blog version of you will be talking about Bayesian inference in couple of hours, you might like to look at paper by Turing, who is on 70-yr delay thanks to British declassification system, who addresses the utility of using likelihood ratios for […] The post New Alan Turing preprint on Arxiv! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## I’ve Been Replaced by an Analytics Robot

May 18, 2015
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It was only a few years ago when the N.Y. Times declared my job “sexy”.  My old job title of statistician had sounded dull and stodgy, but then it became filled with exciting jargon: I’m a data scientist doing predictive analytics with … Continue reading →

## That time of the year…

May 18, 2015
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Slightly later than last year, but, like every year, that time is coming. Yes: Eurovision again. From our point of view, it's of course being a lot quieter than last year, although the paper is still going strong. But we've had two nice surprises:...

## Bob Carpenter’s favorite books on GUI design and programming

May 18, 2015
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Bob writes: I would highly recommend two books that changed the way I thought about GUI design (though I’ve read a lot of them): * Jeff Johnson. GUI Bloopers. I read the first edition in book form and the second in draft form (the editor contacted me based on my enthusiastic Amazon feedback, which was […] The post Bob Carpenter’s favorite books on GUI design and programming appeared first on…

## Residual expertise – or why scientists are amateurs at most of science

May 18, 2015
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Editor's note: I have been unsuccessfully attempting to finish a book I started 3 years ago about how and why everyone should get pumped about reading and understanding scientific papers. I've adapted part of one of the chapters into this blogpost. It is pretty raw but hopefully gets the idea across.  An episode of The Daily Show with

## On deck this week

May 18, 2015
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Mon: Bob Carpenter’s favorite books on GUI design and programming Tues: Bayesian inference: The advantages and the risks Wed: Objects of the class “Foghorn Leghorn” Thurs: “Physical Models of Living Systems” Fri: Creativity is the abilit...