Last word on Mister P (for now)

October 15, 2013
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To recap: Matt Buttice and Ben Highton recently published an article where they evaluated multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) on a bunch of political examples estimating state-level attitudes. My Columbia colleagues Jeff Lax, Justin Phillips, and Yair Ghitza added some discussion, giving a bunch of practical tips and pointing to some problems with Buttice and […]The post Last word on Mister P (for now) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Numbersense Pros: Interview with Larry Cahoon Part 1

October 15, 2013
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Numbersense Pros: Interview with Larry Cahoon Part 1

A short while ago, I introduced Larry Cahoon's blog, GoodStatsBadStats. He started the blog almost two years ago after retiring from the US Census Bureau (site offline due to government shutdown), where he spent 29 years working on the statistical design of most of the household surveys conducted by the Bureau. Cahoon received his PhD from Carnegie Mellon University. Cahoon spent the final seven years of his career working on…

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Next Kölner R User Meeting: 18 Oktober 2013

October 15, 2013
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Next Kölner R User Meeting: 18 Oktober 2013

Quick reminder: The next Cologne R user group meeting is scheduled for this Friday, 18 October 2013. We will discuss and hear about the apply family of functions and the XLConnect package. Further details and the agenda are available on our KölnRUG Me...

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R: Mapping Typhoon Labuyo (Utor) Track

October 15, 2013
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R: Mapping Typhoon Labuyo (Utor) Track

Inspired by James Cheshire R maps, I tried mapping the track of Typhoon Labuyo (Utor) that by far the strongest one to hit Philippines this year. The data is available at Japan Meteorological Agency site, the 2013 - RSMC Best Track data. The code is av...

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Beta Distribution and the NJ U.S. Senate Election

October 14, 2013
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Beta Distribution and the NJ U.S. Senate Election

The beta distribution is highly flexible distribution and applies to many situations and environments. The beta distribution applies well when there are percentages. The upcoming New Jersey U.S. Senate election on Wednesday fits that criterion quite well. So here I applied the beta distribution to some pre-election polls where the numbers were obtained through the […]

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A general audience friendly explanation for why Lars Peter Hansen won the Nobel Prize

October 14, 2013
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A general audience friendly explanation for why Lars Peter Hansen won the Nobel Prize

Lars Peter Hansen won the Nobel Prize in economics for creating the generalized method of moments. A rather technical explanation of the idea appears on Wikipedia. These are a good set of lecture notes on gmms if you like math. I … Continue reading →

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More on Mister P and how it does what it does

October 14, 2013
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More on Mister P and how it does what it does

Following up on our discussion the other day, Matt Buttice and Ben Highton write: It was nice to see our article mentioned and discussed by Andrew, Jeff Lax, Justin Phillips, and Yair Ghitza on Andrew’s blog in this post on Wednesday. As noted in the post, we recently published an article in Political Analysis on […]The post More on Mister P and how it does what it does appeared first…

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Know your data 15: How to get robbed by Google

October 14, 2013
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Know your data 15: How to get robbed by Google

You walk into Walmart, and there is a big notice to customers, informing you that by walking into the store, you consent to being continuously photographed, and being used as a spokesperson for any brands that are carried in the store. You will not be compensated for endorsing these brands because Walmart opens its doors to you without an entrance fee. You should feel blessed that Walmart won’t charge you…

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A Nobel for Financial Econometrics

October 14, 2013
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First it was Engle and Granger (2003); now it's Fama, Hansen and Shiller.A central issue in the economics of financial markets is whether and how those markets process information efficiently, to arrive at fair prices. Inextricably linked to that centr...

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MCMSki IV, Jan. 6-8, 2014, Chamonix (news #10)

October 14, 2013
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MCMSki IV, Jan. 6-8, 2014, Chamonix (news #10)

This a final reminder about the October 15 deadlines for MCMSki IV: First, the early bird rate for the registration ends up on October 15. Second, the young investigator travel support can only be requested up to October 15 as well. (For those waiting for the decision about the support to register, the registration deadline will be […]

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Four moments of portfolios

October 14, 2013
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Four moments of portfolios

What good are the skewness and kurtosis of portfolios? Previously The post “Cross-sectional skewness and kurtosis: stocks and portfolios” looked at skewness and kurtosis in portfolios.  The key difference between that post and this one is what distribution is being looked at. The previous post specified a single time and looked at the distribution across … Continue reading →

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Why it’s okay to guess on the SAT test

October 14, 2013
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Why it’s okay to guess on the SAT test

Should you ever guess on the SAT® or PSAT standardized tests? My son is getting ready to take the preliminary SAT (PSAT), which is a practice test for the SAT. A teacher gave his class this advice regarding guessing: For a multiple-choice questions, if you can eliminate one or two [...]

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The state of package management on Mac OS X

October 14, 2013
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It's that time again; I suspect that Mavericks will be released in the next few weeks, so I get the once-every-year-(or-so) chance to experiment and modify the hell out of my OS X installation because I'll just do a fresh install soon anyway. This time around I'm experimenting with package managers. I've actually tried really »more

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Probabilistic Energy Forecasting

October 14, 2013
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Probabilistic Energy Forecasting

The International Journal of Forecasting is calling for papers on probabilistic energy forecasting. Here are the details (taken from Tao Hong’s blog). In today’s competitive and dynamic environment, more and more decision making processes in the energy industry are relying on probabilistic forecasts. The applications of probabilistic energy forecasts spread across planning and operations of the entire energy value chain. We are seeking papers from researchers working on the areas…

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Sunday data/statistics link roundup (10/13/13)

October 13, 2013
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A really interesting comparison between educational and TV menus (via Rafa). On a related note, it will be interesting to see how/whether the traditional educational system will be disrupted. I'm as into the MOOC thing as the next guy, but I'm … Continue reading →

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When Luca meets Laura

October 13, 2013
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When Luca meets Laura

How to explain important demographic indicators? Try it by telling the story of Laura and Luca. Statistical storytelling at its …Continue reading »

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Remembering the Gist, But Not the Details: One-Dimensional Representation of Consumer Ratings

October 13, 2013
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Remembering the Gist, But Not the Details:  One-Dimensional Representation of Consumer Ratings

In survey research, it makes a difference how the question is asked.  "How would you rate the service you received at that restaurant?" is not the same as "Did you have to wait to be seated, to order your meal, to be served your food, or to pay yo...

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Prices of houses in the Netherlands

October 13, 2013
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Prices of houses in the Netherlands

The last couple of days I read a number of times about stabilization in house prices which had been dropping due to the crisis. And you get hit by numbers such as change against Q2 2013 or Q3 2012. These are accompanied by reasons why this or that quar...

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New issue of Symposium magazine

October 13, 2013
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New issue of Symposium magazine

“Where academia meets public life”: The Changing Face of Violence Joel F. Harrington A debate has kicked off among scholars on whether we have become inherently more peaceful. A more important question is whether we actually understand the many forms violence takes. The Professor as Digital Native Interview with Mary Beard Why Central Bank Transparency […]The post New issue of Symposium magazine appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Sir David Cox: a comment on the post, “Was Hosiasson pulling Jeffreys’ leg?”

October 12, 2013
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Sir David Cox: a comment on the post, “Was Hosiasson pulling Jeffreys’ leg?”

David Cox sent me a letter relating to my post of Oct.5, 2013. He has his own theory as to who might have been doing the teasing! I’m posting it  here, with his permission:  Dear Deborah I was interested to see the correspondence about Jeffreys and the possible teasing by Neyman’s associate. It brought a […]

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Stochastic Optimization in R by Parallel Tempering

October 12, 2013
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Stochastic Optimization in R by Parallel Tempering

I’ve written a few posts now about using parallel tempering to sample from complicated multi-modal target distributions but there are also other benefits and uses to this algorithm. There is a nice post on Darren Wilkinson’s blog about using tempered posteriors for marginal likelihood calculations. There is also another area where parallel tempering finds application, […] The post Stochastic Optimization in R by Parallel Tempering appeared first on Lindons Log.

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Visualization, “big data”, and EDA

October 12, 2013
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Dean Eckles writes: Given your ongoing discussion of info viz for different goals, you might be interested in Sinan Aral’s new article: This touches on several info viz themes: - Viz for yourself (or your team) vs. visualizations to share the final conclusions - Viz for identifying promising features for use in modeling - Viz […]The post Visualization, “big data”, and EDA appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Using ggplot2

October 12, 2013
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Using ggplot2

I have a standard code for ggplot2 which I use to make line graphs, scatter plots, and histograms. For lines or scatters: p<- ggplot(x, aes(x=Year, y=Rank, colour=Uni, group=Uni)) #colour lines by variable Uni #group Uni labelled variables in the same line Then:  p + #you get an error if not for this step geom_line(size=1.2) + […]

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