## Why the current over-pessimism about science is the perfect confirmation bias vehicle and we should proceed rationally

May 6, 2013
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Recently there have been some high profile flameouts in scientific research. A couple examples include the Duke saga, the replication issues in social sciences, p-value hacking, fabricated data, not enough open-access publication, and on and on. Some of these results … Continue reading →

## Three Metagenomics Papers for You

May 6, 2013
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A handful of good metagenomics papers have come out over the last few months. Below I've linked to and copied my evaluation of each of these articles from F1000....1. Willner, Dana, and Philip Hugenholtz. "From deep sequencing to viral tagging: Re...

## Bayesian and Frequentist Approaches: Ask the Right Question

May 6, 2013
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It occurred to us recently that we don’t have any articles about Bayesian approaches to statistics here. I’m not going to get into the “Bayesian versus Frequentist” war; in my opinion, which style of approach to use is less about philosophy, and more about figuring out the best way to answer a question. Once you […] Related posts: Statistics to English Translation, Part 2a: ’Significant’ Doesn’t Always Mean ’Important’ Worry…

## Incomplete Data by Design: Bringing Machine Learning to Marketing Research

May 6, 2013
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Survey research deals with the problem of question wording by always asking the same question.  Thus, the Gallup Daily Tracking is filled with examples of moving averages for the exact same question asked precisely the same way every day. &nb...

## Talking about MOOCs on MPT Direct Connection

May 6, 2013
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Watch Monday, April 29, 2013 on PBS. See more from Direct Connection. I appeared on Maryland Public Television's Direct Connection with Jeff Salkin last Monday to talk about MOOCs (along with our Dean Mike Klag).

## Against optimism about social science

May 6, 2013
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Social science research has been getting pretty bad press recently, what with the Excel buccaneers who didn’t know how to handle data with different numbers of observations per country, and the psychologist who published dozens of papers based on fabricated data, and the Evilicious guy who wouldn’t let people review his data tapes, etc etc. [...]The post Against optimism about social science appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

## Screening screening

May 6, 2013
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Mammograms continue to be an emotional and controversial topic. I blogged about it some time ago. (link) Felix Salmon, whose blog should be daily reading, praises an article by Peggy Orenstein called "Our Feel Good War on Breast Cancer", NYT Magazine (link). Salmon's blog provides a quick summary; Orenstein's article is very long. Orenstein's point of view has particular weight because she was diagnosed at an early age, and was…

## Compute confidence intervals for percentiles in SAS

May 6, 2013
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PROC UNIVARIATE has provided confidence intervals for standard percentiles (quartiles) for eons. However, in SAS 9.3M2 (featuring the 12.1 analytical procedures) you can use a new feature in PROC UNIVARIATE to compute confidence intervals for a specified list of percentiles. To be clear, percentiles and quantiles are essentially the same [...]

## The half variance approximation for mean returns

May 6, 2013
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What’s that thing about arithmetic and geometric returns and the variance? Previously An introduction to the difference between simple and log returns is: A tale of two returns Issue Suppose you are predicting the mean annual return of an asset for some number of years.  To simplify the discussion, let’s buy into the fantasy that … Continue reading →

## Teaching a service course in statistics

May 6, 2013
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Teaching a service course in statistics Most students who enrol in an initial course in statistics at university level do so because they have to. I did some research on attitudes to statistics in my entry level quantitative methods course, … Continue reading →

## Living Earth Platform

May 6, 2013
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Statistics are an important source of information. But in a highly connected world it’s just one source among others. The ambitious international scientific …Continue reading »

## Establishing priority

May 6, 2013
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The nature of research is that other people are probably working on similar ideas to you, and it is possible that someone will beat you to publishing them. When I was working on my PhD, I discovered another PhD thesis by Iris Yeung at UKC with almost exactly the same title as mine, and published a year earlier. In those days, a copy of a thesis had to be printed…

## Aaronson, COLT, Bayesians and Frequentists

May 6, 2013
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$Aaronson, COLT, Bayesians and Frequentists$

Aaronson, COLT, Bayesians and Frequentists I am reading Scott Aaronson’s book “Quantum Computing Since Democritus” which can be found here. The book is about computational complexity, quantum mechanics, quantum computing and many other things. It’s a great book and I highly recommend it. Much of the material on complexity classes is tough going but you […]

## Colors in LaTeX

May 6, 2013
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This is a guest post by Rico Magnucki from SpanDeX Introduction Trying to highlight something, you may reach a point where bold or italics written text is not enough. In situations like these, colors can be very helpful. Like every writing tool, LaTeX has some possibilities to deal with it. At first you need to include a package. \usepackage{xcolor} You may wonder why we’re using xcolor and not color. It is…

## How to Calculate a Partial Correlation Coefficient in R: An Example with Oxidizing Ammonia to Make Nitric Acid

Introduction Today, I will talk about the math behind calculating partial correlation and illustrate the computation in R with an example involving the oxidation of ammonia to make nitric acid using a built-in data set in R called stackloss.  In a separate post, I will also share an R function that I wrote to estimate partial correlation. […]

## Cleaning up science

May 5, 2013
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David Hogg pointed me to this post by Gary Marcus, reviewing this skeptics’ all-star issue of Perspectives on Psychological Science that features replication culture heroes Jelte Wicherts, Hal Pashler, Arina Bones, E. J. Wagenmakers, Gregory Francis, Hal Pashler, John Ioannidis, and Uri Simonsohn. I agree with pretty much everything Marcus has to say. In addition [...]The post Cleaning up science appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## Cleaning up science

May 5, 2013
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David Hogg pointed me to this post by Gary Marcus, reviewing this skeptics’ all-star issue of Perspectives on Psychological Science that features replication culture heroes Jelte Wicherts, Hal Pashler, Arina Bones, E. J. Wagenmakers, Gregory Francis, Hal Pashler, John Ioannidis, and Uri Simonsohn. I agree with pretty much everything Marcus has to say. In addition [...]

## The New York Times Book of Mathematics

May 5, 2013
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This was an good idea: take a bunch of old (and some recent) news articles on developments in mathematics and related ares from the past hundred years. Fun for the math content and historical/nostalgia value. Relive the four-color theorem, Fermat, fractals, and early computing. I have too much of a technical bent to be the [...]The post The New York Times Book of Mathematics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

## Simulation shows gain of clmm over ANOVA is small

May 5, 2013
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After last post's setting up for a simulation, it is now time to look how the models compare. To my disappointment with my simple simulations of assessors behavior the gain is minimal. Unfortunately, the simulation took much more time than I ...

## Quandl Package – 5,000,000 free datasets at the tip of your fingers!

May 5, 2013
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# Yes, you read that correctly and no Quandl (http://www.quandl.com/) did not pay me anything.# Quandl is a new database management tool which seeks to become the place to find datasets.  They boast of having over 5x10^6 data sets available t...

## La belle-mère et la bataille

May 5, 2013
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$k$

Ce soir, les enfants voulaient lancer une partie de bataille dix minutes avant de souper. Devant mon peu d’enthousiasme (on ne sait jamais trop quand ce genre de parties finissent), ma belle-mère a suggéré qu’au lieu de jouer à deux (comme le voulaient les deux grands), on devrait jouer à quatre, et comme ça, ça irait plus vite. Et si ma belle-mère avait raison ? et si elle avait tort…

## One more thought on Hoover historian Niall Ferguson’s thing about Keynes being gay and marrying a ballerina and talking about poetry

May 5, 2013
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We had some interesting comments on our recent reflections on Niall Ferguson’s ill-chosen remarks in which he attributed Keynes’s economic views (I don’t actually know exactly what Keyesianism is, but I think a key part is for the government to run surpluses during economic booms and deficits during recessions) to the Keynes being gay and [...]The post One more thought on Hoover historian Niall Ferguson’s thing about Keynes being gay…

## The Folk Theorem of Statistical Computing

May 4, 2013
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From an email I received the other day: Things are going much better now — it’s interesting, it feels like with both of my models, parameters are slow to converge or get “stuck” and have trouble mixing when the model is somehow ...