0.05 is a joke

March 12, 2016
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0.05 is a joke

Jim Delaney points to this tutorial by F. Perry Wilson on why the use of a “p less than 0.05” threshold does not imply a false positive rate of 5%, even if all the assumptions of the model are true. This is standard stuff but it’s always good to see it one more time. Delaney […] The post 0.05 is a joke appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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“Why this gun control study might be too good to be true”

March 11, 2016
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“Why this gun control study might be too good to be true”

Jeff Lax points us to this news article by Carolyn Johnson discussing a research paper, “Firearm legislation and firearm mortality in the USA: a cross-sectional, state-level study,” by Bindu Kalesan, Matthew Mobily, Olivia Keiser, Jeffrey Fagan, and Sandro Galea, that just appeared in the medical journal The Lancet. Here are the findings from Kalesan et […] The post “Why this gun control study might be too good to be true”…

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Short course on Statistical Methods for the Value of Information Analysis

March 11, 2016
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We're now ready to start the advertisement for our short course on Statistical Methods for the Value of Information Analysis (I've posted about this here). The course will be at UCL from the 8th to the 9th of June, later this year. I think we have been...

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Statistics is like basketball, or knitting

March 11, 2016
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Statistics is like basketball, or knitting

I had a recent exchange with a news reporter regarding one of those silly psychology studies. I took a look at the article in question—this time it wasn’t published in Psychological Science or PPNAS so it didn’t get saturation publicity—and indeed it was bad, laughably bad. They didn’t just have the garden of forking paths, […] The post Statistics is like basketball, or knitting appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Miserable Teaching Evaluations

March 11, 2016
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Miserable Teaching Evaluations

I have always disliked teaching evaluations, feeling that they fail to measure true teaching effectiveness. And it's not just sour grapes -- really, I swear, I generally do fine and have won several teaching awards. Rather, I simply think that teachi...

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dplyr workshop

March 11, 2016
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dplyr workshop code{white-space: pre;} pre:not([class]) { background-color: white; } if (window.hljs && document.readyState && document.readyState === "complete") { window.setTimeout(function() { hljs.initHighlighting(); }, 0); } ...

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The day after the shock: pollsters, forecasters scratch their heads

March 11, 2016
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Pollsters, forecasters, and the likes were embarrassed by the Bernie Sanders upset in Michigan Tuesday night. Nate Silver called it among the greatest polling error in primary history. Now, they are struggling to explain the big miss. Recall the polls conducted close to the contest showed a Clinton lead of about 20 percent points. The actual outcome was a gap of 1.5 points, with a million votes cast. This type…

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Amazonish warning

March 10, 2016
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Amazonish warning

As in previous years, I want to repost a warning to ‘Og readers that all http links to Amazon.com [and much more rarely to Amazon.fr] products found on this ‘Og are actually susceptible to reward me with an advertising percentage if a purchase is made by the reader in the 24 hours following the entry […]

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Bonferroni, les anniversaires et les terroristes (ou pas)

March 10, 2016
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Le paradoxe des anniversaires est un exercice de probabilité que l’on découvre assez vite. Mais assez souvent, on l’oublie, alors qu’il est en réalité assez profond. Le problème est le suivant: quel est le nombre de personnes qu’il faut réunir pour avoir (au moins) une chance sur 2 pour que deux personnes aient leur anniversaire le même jour. Si on calcule la probabilité que deux personnes dans un groupe de…

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Good advice can do you bad

March 10, 2016
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Here are some examples of good, solid, reasonable statistical advice which can lead people astray. Example 1 Good advice: Statistical significance is not the same as practical significance. How it can mislead: People get the impression that a statistically significant result is more impressive if it’s larger in magnitude. Why it’s misleading: See this classic […] The post Good advice can do you bad appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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The state of the art of interactive graphics

March 10, 2016
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The state of the art of interactive graphics

Scott Klein's team at Propublica published a worthy news application, called "Hell and High Water" (link) I took some time taking in the experience. It's a project that needs room to breathe. The setting is Houston Texas, and the subject...

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2 MSc Scholarships in Medical Statistics

March 10, 2016
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2 MSc Scholarships in Medical Statistics

Our department has just been awarded two NIHR MSc studentships in Medical Statistics. In fact, we've been successful in securing funds for the next 3 years (2 studentships per year). This is kind of cool $-$ we're already increasing the numbe...

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Le Menu Dit : a translation app

March 10, 2016
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Le Menu Dit : a translation app

This post is by Phil Price. “Le Menu Dit” is an iPhone app that some friends and I wrote, which translates restaurant menus from English into French. (The name is French for “The Menu Says.”) The friends are Nathan Addy and another excellent programmer who would like to remain nameless for now. Here’s how the […] The post Le Menu Dit : a translation app appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Bruised and battered, I couldn’t tell what I felt. I was ungeneralizable to myself.

March 9, 2016
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Bruised and battered, I couldn’t tell what I felt.  I was ungeneralizable to myself.

One more rep. The new thing you just have to read, if you’re following the recent back-and-forth on replication in psychology, is this post at Retraction Watch in which Nosek et al. respond to criticisms from Gilbert et al. regarding the famous replication project. Gilbert et al. claimed that many of the replications in the […] The post Bruised and battered, I couldn’t tell what I felt. I was ungeneralizable…

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How do you react to a probability forecast?

March 9, 2016
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How do you react to a probability forecast?

There is a healthy debate going on about last night's Michigan primary on the Democratic side, in which Bernie Sanders pulled off a major upset. Polls leading up to the primary put Hillary Clinton ahead by about 20 percent points. That would be a huge margin. Fivethirtyeight, which has been doing a stellar job covering the elections, uses polls heavily in generating forecasts, and they had predicted that Clinton would…

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Comparative histograms: Panel and overlay histograms in SAS

March 9, 2016
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Comparative histograms: Panel and  overlay histograms in SAS

You can use histograms to visualize the distribution of data. A comparative histogram enables you to compare two or more distributions, which usually represent subpopulations in the data. Common subpopulations include males versus females or a control group versus an experimental group. There are two common ways to construct a […] The post Comparative histograms: Panel and overlay histograms in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Postdoctoral Researcher and Research Fellow positions in Computer Science in Helsinki, Finland

March 9, 2016
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There are several PostDoc positions open in Aalto University and University of Helsinki related to statistical modeling, Bayesian inference, probabilistic programming (including Stan) and machine learning. There is also possibility to collaborate with me :) See a detailed list of the research areas and the full call text. The deadline is April 1, 2016. My […] The post Postdoctoral Researcher and Research Fellow positions in Computer Science in Helsinki, Finland…

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Monash Business Analytics Team Profile

Monash Business Analytics Team Profile

Our research group been growing lately, as you can see below! We were featured in the latest issue of the Monash newsletter The Insider. Check it out.

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preserving frequencies without resampling

March 8, 2016
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preserving frequencies without resampling

An interesting question came up on X validated a few days ago: given a probability vector p=(p¹,…,p⁷), is there a way to pick 5 values in {1,…,7} without replacement and still preserve the probability repartition in the resulting sample? In other words, is there a sampling without replacement strategy that leads to for i=1,…,7..? Unless […]

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Bayesian inference for network links

March 8, 2016
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A colleague writes: I’m working with a doctoral student on a latent affinity network problem and we keep hitting challenges in sampling, in our case using Metropolis-Hastings, for the network links. As you can imagine, lots of local modes, things get stuck, etc . . . Any suggestions on how to sample network links? My […] The post Bayesian inference for network links appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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The American Statistical Association makes a statement on p-values

March 8, 2016
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The American Statistical Association makes a statement on p-values

This deserves to be read, re-read, re-re-read, and taken to heart. The ASA makes their statement on p-values.Some key points:p-values by themselves offer very little information on the utility of a model, the truth of a statement, or what is behind a d...

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Stan – The Bayesian Data Scientist’s Best Friend

March 8, 2016
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Stan – The Bayesian Data Scientist’s Best Friend

My friend Juuso Parkkinen has interesting Stan related blog, which is worth following. The above cool animation is from today’s post discussing the updated results of using Stan to model apartment prices in Finland. Few weeks ago Juuso also blogged about a probabilistic programming seminar in Finland with a title Stan – The Bayesian Data […] The post Stan – The Bayesian Data Scientist’s Best Friend appeared first on Statistical…

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For Whom Will the Michigan Mitt Swing?

March 8, 2016
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For Whom Will the Michigan Mitt Swing?

Tomorrow, March 8th, Michigan with 130 delegates gets to vote one which of the Democratic candidates, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders should be the Democratic presidential nominee. Michigan is an important state because is represents a large number o...

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