Causation, Prediction and Search +20

September 24, 2013
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Attention conservation notice: Log-rolling promotion a conference at the intersection of the margins of several academic fields. I've written before about how one of Causation, Prediction and Search was one of the books which awakened my interest in...

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"Binomial Likelihoods and the Polya-Gamma Distribution" (Next Week at the Statistics Seminar)

September 24, 2013
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Attention conservation notice: Only of interest if you (1) care about computational statistics, and (2) will be in Pittsburgh next Monday. Having a talk on Bayesian computational statistics by a Dr. Scott worked so well last time, we're doing it ag...

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You stole my idea!

September 24, 2013
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You stole my idea!

Earlier today, Gareth has showed me a recent, interesting paper by Michael Sweeting (and colleagues). In the paper, Micheal et al describe their work on a R package to extend on the framework of the Continual Reassessment Method (the ori...

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My talk @ GSK

September 24, 2013
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This Thursday I'll give a talk at the GSK Statistics Forum. Erika (with whom I shared a train journey to the 2012 BayesPharma and a group walk in Oxfordshire a few years back) now works at GSK and invited me. I will talk about the model for c...

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How I view an academic talk: like a sports game

September 24, 2013
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I know this is a little random/non-statisticsy but I have been thinking about it a lot lately. Over the last couple of weeks I have been giving a bunch of talks and guest lectures here locally around the Baltimore/DC area. Each … Continue reading →

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“Instead of the intended message that being poor is hard, the takeaway is that rich people aren’t very good with money.”

September 24, 2013
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“Instead of the intended message that being poor is hard, the takeaway is that rich people aren’t very good with money.”

Interesting discussion here from Mark Palko. I think of Palko’s post as having a lot of statistical content here, although it’s hard for me to say exactly why it feels that way to me. Perhaps it has to do with the challenges of measurement, how something that would seem to be a simple problem of […]The post “Instead of the intended message that being poor is hard, the takeaway is…

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Seats half full or half empty

September 24, 2013
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Seats half full or half empty

Kevin Drum shows the following graphic (link) to illustrate where the House stood on authorizing force in Syria. What interests me is whether the semi-circle concept adds to the chart. It evokes the physical appearance of a chamber, presumably where...

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Working with intraday data

September 24, 2013
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When working with intraday data, analysts are often facing a large dataset problem. R is well equipped to deal with this but the standard approach has to be modified in some ways. Large dataset means different things to different people. I’m talking here about a dataset of less than 10 columns and 2 to 5 […]

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Changing the width of bars and columns in googleVis

September 24, 2013
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Changing the width of bars and columns in googleVis

Changing the plotting width in bar-, column- and combo-charts of googleVis works identical and is defined by the bar.groupWidth argument. The dot in the argument means that it has to be split in R into bar="{groupWidth:'10%'}". Examplelibrary(googleVis...

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Scalable Stan

September 23, 2013
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Scalable Stan

Bob writes: If you have papers that have used Stan, we’d love to hear about it. We finally got some submissions, so we’re going to start a list on the web site for 2.0 in earnest. You can either mail them to the list, to me directly, or just update the issue (at least until […]The post Scalable Stan appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Integrity and the Jaynesian/Frequentist divide.

September 23, 2013
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The heart of the Jaynesian/Frequentist divide can be found in the post “The Definition of a Frequentist”. A Frequentist views weather prediction as one of getting the frequency of weather events right. A Jaynesian’s goal is to pin dow...

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The limiting reagent for big data is often small, well-curated data

September 23, 2013
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I've been working on "big" data in genomics since I was a first year student in graduate school (a longer time than I'd rather admit). At the time, "big" meant microarray studies with a couple of hundred patients. Of course, … Continue reading →

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My talk Tues 24 Sept at 12h30 at Université de Technologie de Compiègne

September 23, 2013
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Philosophie et practique de la statistique bayésienne. I’ll try to update the slides a bit since a few years ago, to add some thoughts I’ve had recently about problems with noninformative priors, even in simple settings. The location of the talk will not be convenient for most of you, but anyone who comes to the […]The post My talk Tues 24 Sept at 12h30 at Université de Technologie de Compiègne…

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Deep Inside the LSE

September 23, 2013
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Mary Morgan, Professor of History and Philosophy of Economics at LSE (Department of Economic History) is giving a talk at Penn today, in our Department of History and Sociology of Science. She's done interesting work in the history of econometrics...

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Detecting Weak Instruments in R

September 23, 2013
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Detecting Weak Instruments in R

Any instrumental variables (IV) estimator relies on two key assumptions in order to identify causal effects: That the excluded instrument or instruments only effect the dependent variable through their effect on the endogenous explanatory variable or variables (the exclusion restriction), That the correlation between the excluded instruments and the endogenous explanatory variables is strong enough […]

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Detecting Weak Instruments in R

September 23, 2013
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Detecting Weak Instruments in R

Any instrumental variables (IV) estimator relies on two key assumptions in order to identify causal effects: That the excluded instrument or instruments only effect the dependent variable through their effect on the endogenous explanatory variable or variables (the exclusion restriction), That the correlation between the excluded instruments and the endogenous explanatory variables is strong enough […]

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More on Bayesian methods and multilevel modeling

September 23, 2013
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Ban Chuan Cheah writes: In a previous post, http://andrewgelman.com/2013/07/30/the-roy-causal-model/ you pointed to a paper on Bayesian methods by Heckman. At around the same time I came across another one of his papers, “The Effects of Cognitive and Noncognitive Abilities on Labor Market Outcomes and Social Behavior (2006)” (http://www.nber.org/papers/w12006 or published version http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1086/504455). In this paper […]The post More on Bayesian methods and multilevel modeling appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Generate permutations in SAS

September 23, 2013
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Generate permutations in SAS

I've written several articles that show how to generate permutations in SAS. In the SAS DATA step, you can use the ALLPEM subroutine to generate all permutations of a DATA step array that contain a small number (18 or fewer) elements. In addition, the PLAN procedure enables you to generate [...]

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Going to Plot Some Proportions? Why not Flog ‘em First?

September 23, 2013
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Going to Plot Some Proportions? Why not Flog ‘em First?

Fractions and proportions can be difficult to plot nicely for a number of reasons: If the proportions are based on small counts (e.g., two of his three computing devices were Apple products) then the calculated proportions will only take on a numbe...

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Waiting in One Line or Multiple Lines

September 23, 2013
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Waiting in One Line or Multiple Lines

Whenever I go to the grocery store it always seems to be a lesson in statistics. I go get the things I need to buy and then  I try to select the checkout register that will decrease the amount of time I have to wait. Inevitably, I select the one line where there is some […]

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De la significativité (statistique)

September 23, 2013
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De la significativité (statistique)

On va encore dire que je fais mon numéro d’anti-journaliste primaire, mais je voulais revenir sur une histoire, relayée par certains journaux (français) qui me laisse songeur sur les liens entre les journalistes et le milieu scientifique. Je ne reviendrais pas sur l’information que j’avais relayée alors (que @Tournyol a reprise sur Twitter ce week-end, et qui a beaucoup circulé ces dernières heures sur Twitter) où plusieurs journalistes traduisaient “augmenté de…

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Exploratory Data Analysis: Quantile-Quantile Plots for New York’s Ozone Pollution Data

Exploratory Data Analysis: Quantile-Quantile Plots for New York’s Ozone Pollution Data

Introduction Continuing my recent series on exploratory data analysis, today’s post focuses on quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plots, which are very useful plots for assessing how closely a data set fits a particular distribution.  I will discuss how Q-Q plots are constructed and use Q-Q plots to assess the distribution of the “Ozone” data from the built-in […]

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On-line learning and teaching resources

September 22, 2013
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On-line learning and teaching resources

Twenty-first century Junior Woodchuck Guidebook I grew up reading Donald Duck comics. I love the Junior Woodchucks, and their Junior Woodchuck Guidebook. The Guidebook is a small paperback book, containing information on every conceivable subject, including geography, mythology, history, literature … Continue reading →

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