Are scientists really ready for ‘retraction offsets’ to advance ‘aggregate reproducibility’? (let alone ‘precautionary withdrawals’)

April 1, 2015
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Are scientists really ready for ‘retraction offsets’ to advance ‘aggregate reproducibility’? (let alone ‘precautionary withdrawals’)

Given recent evidence of the irreproducibility of a surprising number of published scientific findings, the White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) sought ideas for “leveraging its role as a significant funder of scientific research to most effectively address the problem”, and announced funding for projects to “reset the self-corrective process of scientific […]

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A new open source data set for detecting time series outliers

April 1, 2015
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A new open source data set for detecting time series outliers

Yahoo Labs has just released an interesting new data set useful for research on detecting anomalies (or outliers) in time series data. There are many contexts in which anomaly detection is important. For Yahoo, the main use case is in detecting unusual traffic on Yahoo servers. The data set comprises real traffic to Yahoo services, along […]

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Le Monde puzzle [#905]

March 31, 2015
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Le Monde puzzle [#905]

A recursive programming  Le Monde mathematical puzzle: Given n tokens with 10≤n≤25, Alice and Bob play the following game: the first player draws an integer1≤m≤6 at random. This player can then take 1≤r≤min(2m,n) tokens. The next player is then free to take 1≤s≤min(2r,n-r) tokens. The player taking the last tokens is the winner. There is […]

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Learning to teach statistics, in a MOOC

March 31, 2015
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Learning to teach statistics, in a MOOC

I am participating in a MOOC, Teaching statistics through data investigations. A MOOC is a fancy name for an online, free, correspondence course.  The letters stand for Massive Open Online Course. I decided to enrol for several reasons. First I … Continue reading →

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Learning to teach statistics, in a MOOC

March 31, 2015
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Learning to teach statistics, in a MOOC

I am participating in a MOOC, Teaching statistics through data investigations. A MOOC is a fancy name for an online, free, correspondence course.  The letters stand for Massive Open Online Course. I decided to enrol for several reasons. First I … Continue reading →

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Econometric Game 2015: Day 1

March 31, 2015
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Econometric Game 2015: Day 1

The Econometric Game, 2015, is underway!Nikki Wesslius, a member of the organizing committee, has reported to me about the opening day of The Game, saying that it was a really hectic day. Apparently, all of the participants are really enthusiastic...

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The round of 8 begins: Mark Twain (4) vs. Miguel de Cervantes (2); Carlin advances

March 31, 2015
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For yesterday‘s contest I really really really wanted to pick John Waters. For one thing, of all the 64 people in the bracket, he’s the one I think I’d like to hear the most. For another, he’s still alive and just might conceivably be amused enough by this whole contest to come up from Baltimore […] The post The round of 8 begins: Mark Twain (4) vs. Miguel de Cervantes…

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House of stats

March 31, 2015
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House of stats

[This is a rather long joint post with Roberto Cerina and compounds our paper in the April 2015 issue of Significance]1. Prelude (kind-of unrelated to what follows). Last week, Marta and I finished watching the last series of House of Cards, the N...

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Time-release pedagogy??

March 31, 2015
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Time-release pedagogy??

Mark Palko points to this report and writes: Putting aside my concerns with the “additional years of learning” metric (and I have a lot of them), I have the feeling that there’s something strange here or i’m missing something obvious. That jump from 3-year impact to 4-year seems excessive. The press release links to a […] The post Time-release pedagogy?? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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To map or not to map

March 31, 2015
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To map or not to map

The New York Times shows the following set of maps to illustrate State policies relating to illegal immigrants. (link to article) This is a great classroom exercise. The question is: to map or not to map. What are other possible...

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Bayes factors vs p-values

March 31, 2015
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Bayes factors vs p-values

Bayesian analysis and Frequentist analysis often lead to the same conclusions by different routes. But sometimes the two forms of analysis lead to starkly different conclusions. The following illustration of this difference comes from a talk by Luis Pericci last week. He attributes the example to “Bernardo (2010)” though I have not been able to find the exact […]

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Interactive pivot tables with R

March 31, 2015
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Interactive pivot tables with R

I love interactive pivot tables. That is the number one reason why I keep using spreadsheet software. The ability to look at data quickly in lots of different ways, without a single line of code helps me to get an understanding of the data really fast...

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MCMskv, Lenzerheide, Jan. 5-7, 2016

March 30, 2015
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MCMskv, Lenzerheide, Jan. 5-7, 2016

Following the highly successful [authorised opinion!, from objective sources] MCMski IV, in Chamonix last year, the BayesComp section of ISBA has decided in favour of a two-year period, which means the great item of news that next year we will meet again for MCMski V [or MCMskv for short], this time on the snowy slopes […]

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Fastest Growing Software for Scholarly Analytics: Python, R, KNIME…

March 30, 2015
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Fastest Growing Software for Scholarly Analytics: Python, R, KNIME…

In my ongoing quest to “analyze the world of analytics”, I’ve added the following section below to The Popularity of Data Analysis Software: It would be useful to have growth trend graphs for each of the analytics packages I track, … Continue reading →

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George Carlin (2) vs. John Waters (1); Updike advances

March 30, 2015
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The bard of the suburbs wins yesterday‘s bout with another fine turn of phrase, this time brought to us in comments by Ethan: “Drinking a toast to the visible world, his impending disappearance from it be damned.” Updike, from “My Father’s Tears.” I want to hear from someone who can write like that about things […] The post George Carlin (2) vs. John Waters (1); Updike advances appeared first on…

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How is ethics like logistic regression?

March 30, 2015
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Ethics decisions, like statistical inferences, are informative only if they’re not too easy or too hard. For the full story, read the whole thing. The post How is ethics like logistic regression? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inf...

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Pros and cons of the term “data science”

March 30, 2015
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I’ve resisted using the term “data science,” and enjoy poking fun at it now and then, but I’ve decided it’s not such a bad label after all. Here are some of the pros and cons of the term. (Listing “cons” first seems backward, but I’m currently leaning toward the pro side, so I thought I […]

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Visualizing the causes of airline crashes

March 30, 2015
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Visualizing the causes of airline crashes

There has been a spate of recent high-profile airline crashes (Malaysia Airlines, TransAsia Airways, Germanwings,...) so I was surprised when I saw a time series plot of the number of airline crashes by year, which indicates that the annual number of airline crashes has been decreasing since 1993. The data […]

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intuition beyond a Beta property

March 29, 2015
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intuition beyond a Beta property

A self-study question on X validated exposed an interesting property of the Beta distribution: If x is B(n,m) and y is B(n+½,m) then √xy is B(2n,2m) While this can presumably be established by a mere change of variables, I could not carry the derivation till the end and used instead the moment generating function E[(XY)s/2] […]

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Friedrich Nietzsche (4) vs. John Updike; Austen advances

March 29, 2015
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I chose yesterday‘s winner based on the oddest comment we’ve received so far in the competition, from AC: I’d love to see what Jane Austen (Austen’s early Regency dress style: http://sensibility.com/vintageimages/1800s/images/lacedress.jpg) thought of late Regency dresses (http://www.kittyprint.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/EveningDresses.jpg), which were basically the exact opposite sensibility. It’s an astonishingly quick reversal, from narrow and prim to a […] The post Friedrich Nietzsche (4) vs. John Updike; Austen advances appeared first on Statistical…

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Regression: What’s it all about? [Bayesian and otherwise]

March 29, 2015
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Regression: What’s it all about? Regression plays three different roles in applied statistics: 1. A specification of the conditional expectation of y given x; 2. A generative model of the world; 3. A method for adjusting data to generalize from sample to population, or to perform causal inferences. We could also include prediction, but I […] The post Regression: What’s it all about? [Bayesian and otherwise] appeared first on Statistical…

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The TES Challenge to Greg Francis

March 29, 2015
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This post is a follow-up to my previous post, “Statistical alchemy and the 'test for excess significance'”. In the comments on that post, Greg Francis objected to my points about the Test for Excess Significance. I laid out a challenge in which I would use simulation to demonstrate these points. Greg Francis agreed to the details; this post is about the results of the simulations (with links to the code,…

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Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, July 2014

March 29, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Stephen King, Eyes of the Dragon Mind candy. I really liked it when I was a boy, and on re-reading it's not been visited by the Suck Fairy, but I did come away with two thoughts. (1) I'd have been ve...

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