The “Propensity Theory of Probabilities” as a Simple Application of the Bayesian Definition of Probabilities

April 9, 2014
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Many view the propensity theory of probabilities as something incompatible with Bayesian probabilities. Nothing could be further from the truth; it represents an elementary special case of that definition. To see this I’ll apply those Bayesian pr...

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IPython notebooks: the new glue?

April 9, 2014
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IPython notebooks: the new glue?

IPython notebooks have become a defacto standard for presenting Python-based analyses and talks, as evidenced by recent Pycon and PyData events. As anyone who has used them knows, they are great for “reproducible research”, presentations, and sharing via the nbviewer. There are extensions connecting IPython to R, Octave, Matlab, Mathematica, SQL, among others. However, the […]

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Advice: positive-sum, zero-sum, or negative-sum

April 9, 2014
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There’s a lot of free advice out there. I offer some of it myself! As I’ve written before (see this post from 2008 reacting to this advice from Dan Goldstein for business school students, and this post from 2010 reacting to some general advice from Nassim Taleb), what we see is typically presented as advice […] The post Advice: positive-sum, zero-sum, or negative-sum appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Round-up of coverage of the Big Miss of Big Data

April 9, 2014
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There is now some serious soul-searching in the mainstream media about their (previously) breath-taking coverage of the Big Data revolution. I am collecting some useful links here for those interested in learning more. Here's my Harvard Business Review article in which I discussed the Science paper disclosing that Google Flu Trends, that key exhibit of the Big Data lobby, has systematically over-estimated flu activity for 100 out of the last…

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The mean of the mean is the mean

April 9, 2014
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The mean of the mean is the mean

-+*There’s a theorem in statistics that says You could read this aloud as “the mean of the mean is the mean.” More explicitly, it says that the expected value of the average of some number of samples from some distribution is equal to the expected value of the distribution itself. The shorter reading is confusing […]

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The Hilbert matrix: A vectorized construction

April 9, 2014
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The Hilbert matrix: A vectorized construction

The Hilbert matrix is the most famous ill-conditioned matrix in numerical linear algebra. It is often used in matrix computations to illustrate problems that arise when you compute with ill-conditioned matrices. The Hilbert matrix is symmetric and positive definite, properties that are often associated with "nice" and "tame" matrices. The […]

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“Out Damned Pseudoscience: Non-significant results are the new ‘Significant’ results!” (update)

April 9, 2014
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“Out Damned Pseudoscience: Non-significant results are the new ‘Significant’ results!” (update)

We were reading “Out, Damned Spot: Can the ‘Macbeth effect’ be replicated?” (Earp,B., Everett,J., Madva,E., and Hamlin,J. 2014, in Basic and Applied Social Psychology 36: 91-8) in an informal gathering of our 6334 seminar yesterday afternoon at Thebes. Some of the graduate students are interested in so-called “experimental” philosophy, and I asked for an example that used statistics […]

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Elections Sans Bipartisme

April 9, 2014
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Hier, sur Twitter, @JF_Godbout partageait un joli graphique relatif aux élections québécoises, avec les nombres de votes obtenus (ici en pourcentage des votes totaux) et le pourcentage de sièges que cela donne, Il faut dire qu’hier, c&#8217...

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My forecasting book now on Amazon

April 9, 2014
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My forecasting book now on Amazon

For all those people asking me how to obtain a print version of my book “Forecasting: principles and practice” with George Athanasopoulos, you now can. Order on Amazon.com Order on Amazon.co.uk Order on Amazon.fr The online book will continue to b...

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A new data-centric incubator project in DC

April 8, 2014
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A new data-centric incubator project in DC

District Data Labs is a new endeavor by members of the local data community (myself included) to increase educational outreach about data-related topics through workshops and other media to the local data community. We want District Data Labs to be an efficient learning resource for people who want to enhance and expand their analytical and […]

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Why I don’t recommend MS Access

April 8, 2014
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Recently, I was asked:Why do you not recommend Access to use? Just curious. Read on page xi of your intro in Data Analysis Using SQL and Excel. Just beginning a class in SQL and bought your text. Thanks, MortThis is a very fair question and o...

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Unsuck your writing

April 8, 2014
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Unsuck your writing

I recently found this little gem of a web app that analyzes the clarity of your writing. Hemingway highlights long, complex, and hard to read sentences. It also highlights complex words where a simple one would do, and highlights adverbs, suggesting yo...

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Understanding Simpson’s paradox using a graph

April 8, 2014
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Understanding Simpson’s paradox using a graph

Joshua Vogelstein pointed me to this post by Michael Nielsen on how to teach Simpson’s paradox. I don’t know if Nielsen (and others) are aware that people have developed some snappy graphical methods for displaying Simpson’s paradox (and, more generally, aggregation issues). We do some this in our Red State Blue State book, but before […] The post Understanding Simpson’s paradox using a graph appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Getting Social Sciences Out of the Black Box: The Open Access Revolution

April 8, 2014
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Getting Social Sciences Out of the Black Box: The Open Access Revolution

Trading Ethos for LogosUp until very recently (the last 10 years) it has been uncommon for social science researchers to share their data even when the sharing would neither compromise the private information of the subjects nor the validity of the stu...

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Construct a stacked bar chart in SAS where each bar equals 100%

April 8, 2014
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Construct a stacked bar chart in SAS where each bar equals 100%

I enjoy reading the Graphically Speaking blog because it teaches me a lot about ODS statistical graphics, especially features of the SGPLOT procedure and the Graph Template Language (GTL). Yesterday Sanjay blogged about how to construct a stacked bar chart of percentages so that each bar represents 100%. His chart […]

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JMBayes R package (webinar)

April 8, 2014
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JMBayes R package (webinar)

A free webinar will provide an introduction to the “JMBayes” R package which provides methods for Joint Modeling of Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data under a Bayesian Approach. Webinar Format: - Introduction to Joint Models and the JMBayes R package – … Continue reading →

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Annotation charts and histograms with googleVis

April 8, 2014
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Annotation charts and histograms with googleVis

After my posts on timeline, Sankey and calendar charts, this will be the last to introduce new chart types of the developer version of googleVis. Today I will give examples for the new annotation charts and histograms.Annotation chartsAnnotation charts...

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Quality of Historical Stock Prices from Yahoo Finance

April 8, 2014
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Quality of Historical Stock Prices from Yahoo Finance

I recently looked at the strategy that invests in the components of S&P/TSX 60 index, and discovered that there are some abnormal jumps/drops in historical data that I could not explain. To help me spot these points and remove them, I created a helper function data.clean() function in data.r at github. Following is an example […]

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Job at Center for Open Science

April 7, 2014
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Job at Center for Open Science

This looks like an interesting job. Dear Dr. Hyndman, I write from the Center for Open Science, a non-profit organization based in Charlottesville, Virginia in the United States, which is dedicated to improving the alignment between scientific values and scientific practices. We are dedicated to open source and open science. We are reaching out to you to find out if you know anyone who might be interested in our Statistical…

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data scientist position

April 7, 2014
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data scientist position

Our newly created Chaire “Economie et gestion des nouvelles données” in Paris-Dauphine, ENS Ulm, École Polytechnique and ENSAE is recruiting a data scientist starting as early as May 1, the call remaining open till the position is filled. The location is in one of the above labs in Paris, the duration for at least one […]

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Writing good software can have more impact than publishing in high impact journals for genomic statisticians

April 7, 2014
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Every once in a while we see computational papers published in science journals with high impact factors.  Genomics related methods appear quite often in these journals. Several of my junior colleagues express frustration that all their papers get rejected from these journals. … Continue reading →

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The Internet and religious affiliation

April 7, 2014
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The Internet and religious affiliation

A few weeks ago I published this paper on arXiv: "Religious affiliation, education and Internet use".  Regular readers of this blog will recognize this as the article I was writing about in July 2012, including this article.A few days ago, MIT Tec...

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How literature is like statistical reasoning: Kosara on stories. Gelman and Basbøll on stories.

April 7, 2014
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In “Story: A Definition,” visual analysis researcher Robert Kosara writes: A story ties facts together. There is a reason why this particular collection of facts is in this story, and the story gives you that reason. provides a narrative path through those facts. In other words, it guides the viewer/reader through the world, rather than just throwing […] The post How literature is like statistical reasoning: Kosara on stories. Gelman and Basbøll…

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