In defense of endless arguments

March 23, 2016
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A couple months ago (that is, yesterday; remember our 2-month delay) some commenters expressed exhaustion and irritation at the Kahneman-Gigerenzer catfight, or more generally the endless debate between those who emphasize irrationality in human decision making and those who emphasize the adaptive and functional qualities of our shortcuts. I would like to respond to this […] The post In defense of endless arguments appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Sitting still against the myth that sitting kills

March 23, 2016
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The fad of standing while working may die hard but science is catching up to it. The idea that standing at work will make one healthier has always been a tough one to believe. It requires a series of premises: Using a standing desk increases the amount of standing Standing longer improves one's health The health improvement is measurable using a well-defined metric The incremental standing is of sufficient amount…

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Plotting overlapping prediction intervals

Plotting overlapping prediction intervals

I often see figures with two sets of prediction intervals plotted on the same graph using different line types to distinguish them. The results are almost always unreadable. A better way to do this is to use semi-transparent shaded regions. Here is an ...

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Nonparametric regression for binary response data in SAS

March 23, 2016
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Nonparametric regression for binary response data in SAS

My previous blog post shows how to use PROC LOGISTIC and spline effects to predict the probability that an NBA player scores from various locations on a court. The LOGISTIC procedure fits parametric models, which means that the procedure estimates parameters for every explanatory effect in the model. Spline bases […] The post Nonparametric regression for binary response data in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Will. Not. Rise. To. Bait.

March 23, 2016
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Someone sends me an email, “I don’t know what to do with this so I thought I would send it to you,” with a link to a university press release about a recently published research paper, full of silly statistical errors and signifying nothing. I replied: Can’t you just ignore this? Why give it any […] The post Will. Not. Rise. To. Bait. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Thinking about this beautiful text sentiment visualizer yields a surprising insight about statistical graphics

March 22, 2016
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Thinking about this beautiful text sentiment visualizer yields a surprising insight about statistical graphics

Lucas Estevem set up this website in d3 as his final project in our statistical communication and graphics class this spring. Copy any text into the window, push the button, and you get this clean and attractive display showing the estimated positivity or negativity of each sentence. The length of each bar is some continuously-scaled […] The post Thinking about this beautiful text sentiment visualizer yields a surprising insight about…

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On the Uncertainty of the Bayesian Estimator

March 22, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: A failed attempt at a dialogue, combining the philosophical sophistication and easy approachability of statistical theory with the mathematical precision and practical application of epistemology, dragged out for 2500+ w...

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All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4.5 years on

March 22, 2016
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All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 4.5 years on

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (4.5 years) By: D. G. Mayo [i] Dear Reader: It’s hard to believe I’ve been blogging for 4 and a half  years (since Sept. 3, 2011)! A big celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room as I type this. Please peruse the offerings below, and take advantage of some of the […]

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Understanding Statistical Models Through the Datasets They Seek to Explain: Choice Modeling vs. Neural Networks

March 21, 2016
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Understanding Statistical Models Through the Datasets They Seek to Explain: Choice Modeling vs. Neural Networks

R may be the lingua franca, yet many of the packages within the R library seem to be written in different languages. We can follow the R code because we know how to program but still feel that we have missed something in the translation.R provides an o...

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Noise noise noise noise noise

March 21, 2016
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Noise noise noise noise noise

An intersting issue came up in comments to yesterday’s post. The story began with this query from David Shor: Suppose you’re conducting an experiment on the effectiveness of a pain medication, but in the post survey, measure a large number of indicators of well being (Sleep quality, self reported pain, ability to get tasks done, […] The post Noise noise noise noise noise appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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On deck this week

March 21, 2016
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Happy spring! Mon: Noise noise noise noise noise Tues: Thinking about this beautiful text sentiment visualizer yields a surprising insight about statistical graphics Wed: In defense of endless arguments Thurs: Multilevel regression Fri: Data-depen...

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Delegate maps need a color treatment

March 21, 2016
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Delegate maps need a color treatment

This year's U.S. primary elections have been very entertaining. Delegate maps are a handy way to keep track of the horse race. They provide data to support (or refute) the narratives created by reporters who use words like "landslide", "commanding",...

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A statistical analysis of Stephen Curry’s shooting

March 21, 2016
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A statistical analysis of Stephen Curry’s shooting

Last week Robert Allison showed how to download NBA data into SAS and create graphs such as the location where Stephen Curry took shots in the 2015-16 season to date. The graph at left shows the kind of graphs that Robert created. I've reversed the colors from Robert's version, so […] The post A statistical analysis of Stephen Curry's shooting appeared first on The DO Loop.

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The Two-Paper Package

March 21, 2016
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The Two-Paper Package

Much of academic work is focused on writing papers. This doesn’t just include the work that goes into the research and the writing, but also strategy – beyond the single paper. Here is one that worked. Even if it’s a bit coincidental, I think it’s a good model for other papers. It’s fairly unusual to talk about … Continue reading The Two-Paper Package

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rOpenSci unconference in Brisbane, 21-22 April 2016

rOpenSci unconference in Brisbane, 21-22 April 2016

The first rOpenSci unconference in Australia will be held on Thursday and Friday (April 21-22) in Brisbane, at the Microsoft Innovation Centre. This event will bring together researchers, developers, data scientists and open data enthusiasts from ind...

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The Evolution of a Data Scientist

March 21, 2016
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The Evolution of a Data Scientist

Editor’s note: This post is a guest post by Andrew Jaffe “How do you get to Carnegie Hall? Practice, practice, practice.” (“The Wit Parade” by E.E. Kenyon on March 13, 1955) ”..an extraordinarily consistent answer in an incredible number ...

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My quick answer is that I would analyze all 10 outcomes using a multilevel model.

March 20, 2016
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David Shor writes: Suppose you’re conducting an experiment on the effectiveness of a pain medication, but in the post survey, measure a large number of indicators of well being (Sleep quality, self reported pain, ability to get tasks done, anxiety levels, etc). After the experiment, the results are insignificant (or the posterior effect size isn’t […] The post My quick answer is that I would analyze all 10 outcomes using…

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Your chance to continue the “due to chance” discussion in roomier quarters

March 19, 2016
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Your chance to continue the “due to chance” discussion in roomier quarters

Comments get unwieldy after 100, so here’s a chance to continue the “due to chance” discussion in some roomier quarters. (There seems to be at least two distinct lanes being travelled.) Now one of the main reasons I run this blog is to discover potential clues to solving or making progress on thorny philosophical problems I’ve been wrangling with for a […]

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Actually, I’d just do full Bayes

March 19, 2016
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Dave Clark writes: I was hoping for your opinion on a topic related to hierarchical models. I am an actuary and have generally worked with the concept of hierarchical models in the context of credibility theory. The text by Bühlmann and Gisler (A Course in Credibility Theory; Springer) sets up the mixed models under the […] The post Actually, I’d just do full Bayes appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Le Monde puzzle [#952]

March 18, 2016
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Le Monde puzzle [#952]

A quite simple Le Monde mathematical puzzle again with Alice and Bob: In a multiple choice questionnaire with 50 questions, Alice gets a score s such that Bob can guess how many correct (+5 points), incorrect (-1 point) and missing (0 point) Alice got when adding that Alice could not have gotten s-2 or s+2. […]

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Le Monde puzzle [#952]

March 18, 2016
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Le Monde puzzle [#952]

A quite simple Le Monde mathematical puzzle again with Alice and Bob: In a multiple choice questionnaire with 50 questions, Alice gets a score s such that Bob can guess how many correct (+5 points), incorrect (-1 point) and missing (0 point) Alice got when adding that Alice could not have gotten s-2 or s+2. […]

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More on preparing data

March 18, 2016
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More on preparing data

The Microsoft Data Science User Group just sponsored Dr. Nina Zumel‘s presentation “Preparing Data for Analysis Using R”. Microsoft saw Win-Vector LLC‘s ODSC West 2015 presentation “Prepping Data for Analysis using R” and generously offered to sponsor improving it and disseminating it to a wider audience. We feel Nina really hit the ball out of … Continue reading More on preparing data

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I definitely wouldn’t frame it as “To determine if the time series has a change-point or not.” The time series, whatever it is, has a change point at every time. The question might be, “Is a change point necessary to model these data?” That’s a question I could get behind.

March 18, 2016
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From the Stan users list: I’m trying out to fit a time series that can have 0 or 1 change point using the sample model from Ch 11.2 of the manual. To determine if the time series has a change-point or not, would I need to do comparison model (via loo) between 1-change model developed […] The post I definitely wouldn’t frame it as “To determine if the time series…

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