Awesomest media request of the year

July 14, 2015
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(Sent to all the American Politics faculty at Columbia, including me) RE: Donald Trump presidential candidacy Hi, Firstly, apologies for the group email but I wasn’t sure who would be best prized to answer this query as we’ve not had much luck so far. I am a Dubai-based reporter for **. Donald Trump recently announced […] The post Awesomest media request of the year appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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The 2015 Big Data Summit, 9-10 August 2015, collocated with ACM KDD 2015, Sydney

July 14, 2015
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The 2015 Big Data Summit, 9-10 August 2015, collocated with ACM KDD 2015, Sydney

The 2015 Big Data Summit 9-10 August 2015 collocated with ACM KDD 2015, Sydney URL: http://2015.bigdatasummit.co/ We take this privilege opportunity to invite you to participate in the 2015 Big Data Summit: • Co-located with ACM KDD2015 • Plenary sessions … Continue reading →

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Survey weighting and regression modeling

July 14, 2015
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Yphtach Lelkes points us to a recent article on survey weighting by three economists, Gary Solon, Steven Haider, and Jeffrey Wooldridge, who write: We start by distinguishing two purposes of estimation: to estimate population descriptive statistics and to estimate causal effects. In the former type of research, weighting is called for when it is needed […] The post Survey weighting and regression modeling appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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ChainLadder 0.2.1 released

July 14, 2015
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ChainLadder 0.2.1 released

Over the weekend we released version 0.2.1 of the ChainLadder package for claims reserving on CRAN. New FeaturesNew function PaidIncurredChain by Fabio Concina, based on the 2010 Merz & Wüthrich paper Paid-incurred chain claims reserving methodFun...

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Flawed thinking about causes

July 13, 2015
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One of the most misguided and dangerous ideas floated around by a group of Big Data enthusiasts is the notion that it is not important to understand why something happens, just because "we have a boatload of data". This is one of the central arguments in the bestseller Big Data, and it reached the mainstream much earlier when Chris Anderson, then chief editor of Wired, published his flamboyantly-titled op-ed proclaiming…

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Will Millennials Ever Get Married?

July 13, 2015
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Will Millennials Ever Get Married?

At SciPy last week I gave a talk called "Will Millennials Ever Get Married?  Survival Analysis and Marriage Data".  I presented results from my analysis of data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG).  The slides I presented ar...

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Don’t do the Wilcoxon

July 13, 2015
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Don’t do the Wilcoxon

The Wilcoxon test is a nonparametric rank-based test for comparing two groups. It’s a cool idea because, if data are continuous and there is no possibility of a tie, the reference distribution depends only on the sample size. There are no nuisance parameters, and the distribution can be tabulated. From a Bayesian point of view, […] The post Don’t do the Wilcoxon appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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On deck this week

July 13, 2015
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Mon: Don’t do the Wilcoxon Tues: Survey weighting and regression modeling Wed: Prior information, not prior belief Thurs: Draw your own graph! Fri: Measurement is part of design Sat: Annals of Spam Sun: “17 Baby Names You Didn’t Know Were ...

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What Seasonally-Adjusted U.S. Economic Data Needs Most…

July 13, 2015
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...is non-adjustment. This is not a minor issue: there's not even an unadjusted U.S. GDP! Seasonal adjustment is sometimes desirable, but sometimes not. Sometimes it's done poorly, sometimes it's better done with extra care and transparency b...

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Compare the performance of algorithms in SAS

July 13, 2015
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Compare the performance of algorithms in SAS

As my colleague Margaret Crevar recently wrote, it is useful to know how long SAS programs take to run. Margaret and others have written about how to use the SAS FULLSTIMER option to monitor the performance of the SAS system. In fact, SAS distributes a macro that enables you to […] The post Compare the performance of algorithms in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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“Physical Models of Living Systems”

July 12, 2015
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Phil Nelson writes: I’d like to alert you that my new textbook, “Physical Models of Living Systems,” has just been published. Among other things, this book is my attempt to bring Bayesian inference to undergraduates in any science or engineering major, and the course I teach from it has been enthusiastically received. The book is […] The post “Physical Models of Living Systems” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Going to iHEA

July 11, 2015
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iHEA's conference is kind of big deal in health economics: it's usually very big, with lots of sessions and lots of people participating. I have been to a few, both sides of the Atlantic and they are usually very good. This year it's in Milan (I think ...

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Inauthentic leadership? Development and validation of methods-based criticism

July 11, 2015
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Thomas Basbøll writes: I need some help with a critique of a paper that is part of the apparently growing retraction scandal in leadership studies. Here’s Retraction Watch. The paper I want to look at is here: “Authentic Leadership: Development and Validation of a Theory-Based Measure” By F. O. Walumbwa, B. J. Avolio, W. L. […] The post Inauthentic leadership? Development and validation of methods-based criticism appeared first on Statistical…

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The Mozilla Fellowship for Science

July 10, 2015
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This looks like an interesting opportunity for grad students, postdocs, and early career researchers: We’re looking for researchers with a passion for open source and data sharing, already working to shift research practice to be more collaborative, iterative and open. Fellows will spend 10 months starting September 2015 as community catalysts at their institutions, mentoring

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Open, Useful, Reusable

July 10, 2015
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Open, Useful, Reusable

In OECD’s brand new publication ‘Government at a Glance 2015’ we can find a new indicator: The OUR Index. It stands for ‘Open, Useful, Reusable Government Data’. ‘The new OECD OURdata Index reveals that many countries have made progress in making public data more available and accessible, but large variations remain, not least with respect to the quality … Continue reading Open, Useful, Reusable

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Open, Useful, Reusable

July 10, 2015
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Open, Useful, Reusable

In OECD’s brand new publication ‘Government at a Glance 2015’ we can find a new indicator: The OUR Index. It stands for ‘Open, Useful, Reusable Government Data’. ‘The new OECD OURdata Index reveals that many countries have made progress in making public data more available and accessible, but large variations remain, not least with respect to the quality … Continue reading Open, Useful, Reusable

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Economists betting on replication

July 10, 2015
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Mark Patterson writes: A bunch of folks are collaborating on a project to replicate 18 experimental studies published in prominent Econ journals (mostly American Economic Review, a few Quarterly Journal of Economics). This is already pretty exciting, but the really cool bit is they’re opening a market (with real money) to predict which studies will […] The post Economists betting on replication appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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‘Student’, on Kurtosis

July 9, 2015
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‘Student’, on Kurtosis

W. S. Gosset (Student) provided this useful aid to help us remember the difference between platykurtic and leptokurtic distributions:('Student', 1927. Errors of routine analysis. Biometrika, 19, 151-164. See p. 160.)Here, β2 is the fourth standardized...

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The Ecology of Local Subspaces: Mixtures of Parochial Views

July 9, 2015
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The Ecology of Local Subspaces: Mixtures of Parochial Views

No matter where you live, your view of the world is biased and limited, which is the beauty of this magazine cover.As a marketer, of course, all my maps depict, not place, but consumption. For example, in an earlier post I asked, "What apps are on your...

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Hey—guess what? There really is a hot hand!

July 9, 2015
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Hey—guess what?  There really is a hot hand!

No, it’s not April 1, and yup, I’m serious. Josh Miller came into my office yesterday and convinced me that the hot hand is real. Here’s the background. Last year we posted a discussion on streakiness in basketball shooting. Miller has a new paper out, with Adam Sanjurjo, which begins: We find a subtle but […] The post Hey—guess what? There really is a hot hand! appeared first on Statistical…

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What is an interaction effect?

July 9, 2015
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What is an interaction effect?

One statistical concept that instructors frequently don't have time to cover in Stat 101 is the "interaction" effect. I will explain this concept using the fantastic interactive graphic by the visualization team at the German publication Zeit (please also read the corresponding post on Junk Charts here for some background.) When we ignore interactions, we end up with overly simplistic statistical summaries. For example, some study might find that drinking…

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Working with Sessionized Data 1: Evaluating Hazard Models

July 8, 2015
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Working with Sessionized Data 1: Evaluating Hazard Models

When we teach data science we emphasize the data scientist’s responsibility to transform available data from multiple systems of record into a wide or denormalized form. In such a “ready to analyze” form each individual example gets a row of data and every fact about the example is a column. Usually transforming data into this … Continue reading Working with Sessionized Data 1: Evaluating Hazard Models →

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JHU, UMD researchers are getting a really big Big Data center

July 8, 2015
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From Technical.ly Baltimore: A nondescript, 3,700-square-foot building on Johns Hopkins’ Bayview campus will house a new data storage and computing center for university researchers. The $30 million Maryland Advanced Research Computing Center (MARCC) will be available to faculty from JHU and the University of Maryland, College Park. The web site has a pretty cool time-lapse video of the construction of the

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