U-boats in WW-II

May 10, 2015
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U-boats in WW-II

This is the time when we celebrate the end of the second world war in The Netherlands, so I thought to do somwthig with data from that era. One of the things I enjoyed were books on the sea warfare, such as 'The Cruel Sea'by Nicholas Monsarrat. In that...

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Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)

May 9, 2015
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Stephen Senn: Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law (sequel to the pathetic P-value)

Stephen Senn Head of Competence Center for Methodology and Statistics (CCMS) Luxembourg Institute of Health Double Jeopardy?: Judge Jeffreys Upholds the Law “But this could be dealt with in a rough empirical way by taking twice the standard error as a criterion for possible genuineness and three times the standard error for definite acceptance”. Harold […]

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AI, Artificial Birds and Aeroplanes

May 9, 2015
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AI, Artificial Birds and Aeroplanes

The Turing Test for artificial intelligence is a reasonably well understood idea: if, through a written form of communication, a machine can convince a human that it too is a human, then it passes the test. The elegance of this...

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Social networks spread disease—but they also spread practices that reduce disease

May 9, 2015
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Social networks spread disease—but they also spread practices that reduce disease

I recently posted on the sister blog regarding a paper by Jon Zelner, James Trostle, Jason Goldstick, William Cevallos, James House, and Joseph Eisenberg, “Social Connectedness and Disease Transmission: Social Organization, Cohesion, Village Context, and Infection Risk in Rural Ecuador.” Zelner follows up: This made me think of my favorite figure from this paper, which […] The post Social networks spread disease—but they also spread practices that reduce disease appeared…

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Vienna Workshop on High-Dimensional Time Series In Macroeconomics and Finance

May 8, 2015
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Program looking good:  https://www.conftool.net/timeseries2015/sessions.php.  Presumably papers will be posted, or at least you can email the authors.

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Statistics: P values are just the tip of the iceberg : Nature News & Comment

May 8, 2015
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Statistics: P values are just the tip of the iceberg : Nature News & Comment

Statistics: P values are just the tip of the iceberg : Nature News & Comment: This article is very important. Yes, p-values reported in the literature (or in your own research) need scrutiny, but so does every step in the analysis process, starting...

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Yeah ………… That’d Be Great

May 8, 2015
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Yeah ………… That’d Be Great

"Bill Lumbergh" will continue to terrorize the office via my tweets at @DEAGiles:p.s.: Actually, I do own a "Swingline" stapler, and I'm thinking of re-spraying it fire-engine red.© 2015, David E. Giles

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What Can We Learn from the Apps on Your Smartphone? Topic Modeling and Matrix Factorization

May 8, 2015
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What Can We Learn from the Apps on Your Smartphone? Topic Modeling and Matrix Factorization

The website for The Burning House begins with a simple question:If your house was burning, what would you take with you? It's a conflict between what's practical, valuable and sentimental. What you would take reflects your interests, background and pri...

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The tyranny of the idea in science

May 8, 2015
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There are a lot of analogies between startups and academic science labs. One thing that is definitely very different is the relative value of ideas in the startup world and in the academic world. For example, Paul Graham has said: Actually, startup ideas are not million dollar ideas, and here's an experiment you can try

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What I got wrong (and right) about econometrics and unbiasedness

May 8, 2015
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Yesterday I spoke at the Princeton economics department. The title of my talk was: “Unbiasedness”: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. The talk went all right—people seemed ok with what I was saying—but I didn’t see a lot of audience involvement. It was a bit […] The post What I got wrong (and right) about econometrics and unbiasedness appeared first…

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Updated DBDA2E programs for number of MCMC chains and parallel chains in runjags

May 7, 2015
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Updated DBDA2E programs for number of MCMC chains and parallel chains in runjags

The DBDA2E programs have been updated so they deal better with parallel chains in runjags and the number of cores available on your computer. The new programs are available as this zip folder also linked at the book's software page. There are 29 modifi...

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Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, March 2015

May 7, 2015
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Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Anthony Shadid, House of Stone: A Memoir of Home, Family, and a Lost Middle East Shadid's memoir of restoring his family's ancestral home in a small Christian town in south Lebanon, inter-cut with the ...

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On the Invariance of MLE’s

May 7, 2015
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On the Invariance of MLE’s

The Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) is extremely widely used in statistics, and in the various "metrics" disciplines such as econometrics. This is because this estimator has several highly desirable properties, as long as the sample size is sufficie...

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What is new in the vtreat library?

May 7, 2015
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The Win-Vector LLC vtreat library is a library we supply (under a GPL license) for automating the simple domain independent part of variable cleaning an preparation. The idea is you supply (in R) an example general data.frame to vtreat’s designTr...

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Deflategate 3: nature of evidence

May 7, 2015
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Deflategate 3: nature of evidence

Last time we heard about Deflategate on this blog, Warren Sharp compiled some statistics on fumble rates, showing that the Patriots were unusually good at avoiding fumbles. (link, link) I thought the level of analysis was "above average" and remarked that statistical evidence of this type can only get you so far. The metric is indirect, and it does not speak to causation. The official investigators have now issued their…

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Mendelian randomization inspires a randomized trial design for multiple drugs simultaneously

May 7, 2015
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Mendelian randomization inspires a randomized trial design for multiple drugs simultaneously

Joe Pickrell has an interesting new paper out about Mendelian randomization. He discusses some of the interesting issues that come up with these studies and performs a mini-review of previously published studies using the technique. The basic idea behind Mendelian Randomization is the following. In a simple, randomly mating population Mendel's laws tell us that at any

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A question about physics-types models for flows in economics

May 7, 2015
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Phillip Middleton writes: I’ve been attempting to generate a set of visually (animated in fact) mappable models which represent measurable forces that demonstrate effects on localized economic (census block level) outcomes, which in turn affect and are affected by regional education dynamics, brick/mortar business development, etc… This is coming out of some reading and observation […] The post A question about physics-types models for flows in economics appeared first on…

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Putting a final touch on Bloomberg’s terrific chart of social movements

May 7, 2015
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Putting a final touch on Bloomberg’s terrific chart of social movements

My friend Rhonda D. wins a prize for submitting a good chart. This is Bloomberg's take on the current Supreme Court case on gay marriage (link). Their designer places this movement in the context of prior social movements such as...

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Nominations for IJF Best Paper 2012-2013

May 7, 2015
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Nominations for IJF Best Paper 2012-2013

The following papers have been nominated for the best paper published in the International Journal of Forecasting in 2012–2013. I have included an excerpt from the nomination in each case. The papers in bold have been short-listed for the award, and the editorial board are currently voting on them. Bellotti, T., & Crook, J. (2012). […]

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How to Understand Computers in Film

May 6, 2015
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How to Understand Computers in Film

When we see an act of programming, screeds of code or other interactions with computers in movies, software engineers are likely to roll their eyes. When Chappie's coder has to write 'terabytes of code' When Ford's computer guy has to...

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In criticism of criticism of criticism

May 6, 2015
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In criticism of criticism of criticism

I do a lot of criticism. I’m sure you can think of lots of things that I like to criticize, but to keep things simple, let’s focus on graphics criticism, for example this post where I criticized a graph for false parallelism. At this point some people would say that graphics criticism is mean, and […] The post In criticism of criticism of criticism appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Story time, known unknowns and the endowment effect in an HBR article on customer data

May 6, 2015
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Story time, known unknowns and the endowment effect in an HBR article on customer data

Harvard Business Review devotes a long article to customer data privacy in the May issue (link). The article raises important issues, such as the low degree of knowledge about what data are being collected and traded, the value people place on their data privacy, and so on. In a separate post, I will discuss why I don't think the recommendations issued by the authors will resolve the issues they raised.…

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Matrix computations at SAS Global Forum 2015

May 6, 2015
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Matrix computations at SAS Global Forum 2015

Last week I attended SAS Global Forum 2015 in Dallas. It was packed with almost 5,000 attendees. I learned many interesting things at the conference, including the fact that you need to arrive EARLY to the statistical presentations if you want to find an empty seat! It was gratifying to […] The post Matrix computations at SAS Global Forum 2015 appeared first on The DO Loop.

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