Little Debate: defining baseline

June 5, 2016
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Little Debate: defining baseline

In an April 30, 2015 note in Nature (vol 520, p. 612), Jeffrey Leek and Roger Peng note that p-values get intense scrutiny, while all the decisions that lead up to the p-values get little debate. I wholeheartedly agree, and so I'm creating a Littl...

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Researchers demonstrate new breakthrough in public relations, promoting a study before it appears in Psychological Science or PPNAS

June 5, 2016
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Researchers demonstrate new breakthrough in public relations, promoting a study before it appears in Psychological Science or PPNAS

Ivan Oransky pointed me to this press release: Study finds honesty varies significantly between countries Research from the University of East Anglia (UEA) has found that people’s honesty varies significantly between countries. It also suggests that honesty is less important to a country’s current economic growth than during earlier periods in history. The study examined […] The post Researchers demonstrate new breakthrough in public relations, promoting a study before it…

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Taking responsibility for your statistical conclusions: You must decide what variation to compare to.

June 4, 2016
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Taking responsibility for your statistical conclusions:  You must decide what variation to compare to.

A couple people pointed me to a recent paper by Josh Terrell, Andrew Kofink, Justin Middleton, Clarissa Rainear, Emerson Murphy-Hill​, and Chris Parnin, “Gender bias in open source: Pull request acceptance of women versus men.” The term “bias” seems a bit loaded given the descriptive nature of their study. That said, it’s good for people […] The post Taking responsibility for your statistical conclusions: You must decide what variation to…

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Causal Estimation and Millions of Lives

June 3, 2016
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This just in from a fine former Ph.D. student.  He returned to India many years ago and made his fortune in finance.  He's now devoting himself the greater good, working with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.I reminded him that I'm not l...

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Large enough probability?

June 3, 2016
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Large enough probability?

I've deliberately stayed away from the Brexit referendum (that is in terms of spending time doing some modelling to see what the predictions may be) $-$ mostly because I was otherwise busy and didn't really have much time. However, I was talking e...

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Who falls for the education reform hype?

June 3, 2016
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Phillip Middleton writes: My wife is a 5th grade teacher, in Texas, in a title I school (free lunch, other subsidies, poor and emotionally disturbed kids, CPS cases, you name it) on the west side of San Antonio. There are a number of things I’ve been exposed to as a result, the net of which […] The post Who falls for the education reform hype? appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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2017 International Symposium on Energy Analytics

2017 International Symposium on Energy Analytics

Predictive Energy Analytics in the Big Data World Cairns, Australia, June 22-23, 2017 ISEA2017 This will be a great conference, and it is in a great location — Cairns, Australia, right by the Great Barrier Reef. Even better, if you stay on you ...

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A research project for you! Using precursor data to evaluate the Leicester odds.

June 3, 2016
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OK, here’s a research project for someone who’s interested in sports statistics. It’s from this comment by Paul in a recent thread: What I would like to see (has anyone done it?) is an analysis of the performance of EPL teams that had similar pre-season odds to Leicester over the last 15-20 years or so. […] The post A research project for you! Using precursor data to evaluate the Leicester…

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Defining success – Four secrets of a successful data science experiment

June 3, 2016
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Editor’s note: This post is excerpted from the book Executive Data Science: A Guide to Training and Managing the Best Data Scientists, written by myself, Brian Caffo, and Jeff Leek. This particular section was written by Brian Caffo. Defining succes...

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NBA is hiring; no height requirement

June 2, 2016
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Jason Rosenfeld writes: I’m looking to hire a basketball analyst to join my basketball analytics team here at the NBA League Office in NYC. Looking for someone who is graduating now or graduated recently (probably better suited for an undergrad, though grad students are welcome to reach out as well). Looking for a background in […] The post NBA is hiring; no height requirement appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Econometrics Reading List for June

June 2, 2016
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Econometrics Reading List for June

Here's some suggested reading for the coming month:Backhouse, R. and B. Cherrier, 2016. 'It's  computerization, stupid!' The spread of computers and the changing roles of theoretical and applied economics.Castle, J. L., M. P. Clements, and D. F. H...

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Books to Read While the Algae Grow in Your Fur, May 2016

June 2, 2016
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Attention conservation notice: I have no taste. Amitav Ghosh, Sea of Poppies, River of Smoke and Flood of Fire Collectively, "the Ibis trilogy", three historical novels centered around the First Opium War. They're beautifully written and the viewpo...

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Freak Punts on Leicester Bet

June 2, 2016
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Freak Punts on Leicester Bet

I went over to the Freakonomics website and found this story about Leicester City’s unexpected championship. Here’s Stephen Dubner: At the start of this season, British betting houses put Leicester’s chances of winning the league at 5,000-to-1, which seemed, if anything, perhaps too generous. My [Dubner’s] son Solomon again: SOLOMON DUBNER: What would you say […] The post Freak Punts on Leicester Bet appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,…

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Create spaghetti plots in SAS

June 2, 2016
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Create spaghetti plots in SAS

What is a spaghetti plot? Spaghetti plots are line plots that involve many overlapping lines. Like spaghetti on your plate, they can be hard to unravel, yet for many analysts they are a delicious staple of data visualization. This article presents the good, the bad, and the messy about spaghetti […] The post Create spaghetti plots in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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A demonstration of vtreat data preparation

June 2, 2016
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A demonstration of vtreat data preparation

This article is a demonstration the use of the R vtreat variable preparation package followed by caret controlled training. In previous writings we have gone to great lengths to document, explain and motivate vtreat. That necessarily gets long and unnecessarily feels complicated. In this example we are going to show what building a predictive model … Continue reading A demonstration of vtreat data preparation

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“The Natural Selection of Bad Science”

June 2, 2016
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That’s the title of a new paper by Paul Smaldino and Richard McElreath which presents a sort of agent-based model that reproduces the growth in the publication of junk science that we’ve seen in recent decades. Even before looking at this paper I was positively disposed toward it for two reasons. First because I do […] The post “The Natural Selection of Bad Science” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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Le Monde puzzle [#964]

June 1, 2016
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Le Monde puzzle [#964]

A not so enticing Le Monde mathematical puzzle: Find the minimal value of a five digit number divided by the sum of its digits. This can formalised as finding the minimum of N/(a+b+c+d+e) when N writes abcde. And solved by brute force. Using a rough approach to finding the digits of a five-digit number, the […]

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Covcalc: Shiny App for Calculating Coverage Depth or Read Counts for Sequencing Experiments

June 1, 2016
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Covcalc: Shiny App for Calculating Coverage Depth or Read Counts for Sequencing Experiments

How many reads do I need? What's my sequencing depth? These are common questions I get all the time. Calculating how much sequence data you need to hit a target depth of coverage, or the inverse, what's the coverage depth given a set amount of sequenci...

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EuroVis Coverage and Running

June 1, 2016
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EuroVis Coverage and Running

For people not attending EuroVis: I will be tweeting from there next week and write postings here, like I have in the previous years. For people who will be attending: let’s meet up and run! EuroVis Coverage I will be tweeting during the sessions – assuming there’s Wifi – Tuesday through Friday (June 7–10). EuroVis being in the … Continue reading EuroVis Coverage and Running

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The way we social science now

June 1, 2016
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This is a fun story. Jeff pointed me to a post on the sister blog by Christopher Hare and Robert Lupton, entitled “No, Sanders voters aren’t more conservative than Clinton voters. Here’s the data.” My reaction: “Who would ever think that Sanders supporters are more conservative than Clinton supporters? That’s counterintuitivism gone amok.” It turned […] The post The way we social science now appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal…

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An example of terrible analytics report design

June 1, 2016
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In the business analytics universe, the discipline of "business intelligence" is often frowned upon. Business intelligence is primarily generating reports on business metrics, tracking them over time, and producing ad-hoc analyses explaining these trends. People often complain that such work is not challenging and not sexy. There is a stigma that BI work is data dumping. In reality, good BI work is rare and extremely valuable. Horrible BI work is…

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Forecast v7 (part 2)

Forecast v7 (part 2)

As mentioned in my previous post on the forecast package v7, the most visible feature was the introduction of ggplot2 graphics. This post briefly summarizes the remaining new features of forecast v7. library(forecast) library(ggplot2) tslm rewritten Th...

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“Replication initiatives will not salvage the trustworthiness of psychology”

May 31, 2016
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“Replication initiatives will not salvage the trustworthiness of psychology”

So says James Coyne, going full Meehl. I agree. Replication is great, but if you replicate noise studies, you’ll just get noise, hence the beneficial effects on science are (a) to reduce confidence in silly studies that we mostly shouldn’t have taken seriously in the first place, and (b) to provide an disincentive for future […] The post “Replication initiatives will not salvage the trustworthiness of psychology” appeared first on…

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