Recidivism and single-case probabilities

November 9, 2015
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Recidivism and single-case probabilities

I am collaborating with a criminologist who studies recidivism.  In the context of crime statistics, a recidivist is a convicted criminal who commits a new crime post conviction.  Statistical studies of recidivism are used in parole hearings ...

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Biostatistics: It’s not what you think it is

November 9, 2015
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My department recently sent me on a recruitment trip for our graduate program. I had the opportunity to chat with undergrads interested in pursuing a career related to data analysis. I found that several did not know about the existence of Departments of Biostatistics and most of the rest thought Biostatistics was the study of clinical trials. We have posted on the

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Choropleths, cartograms, tile maps and all those

November 9, 2015
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Choropleths, cartograms, tile maps and all those

I like this discussion by Richard Brath about the designer choices when it comes to creating maps. Richard systematically walks through each type of map and points out the strengths and weaknesses. He has some interesting ideas about improving tile...

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Know your data 16: what have you copied for pasting today

November 9, 2015
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The Daily Beast reports that Facebook knows what you just copied and pasted on your phone (link). Then, when the engineers try to explain what they are doing, it feels a bit more creepy, as usual. We all copy text and then paste it somewhere else. This can be a web link that we are transporting from one app to another, or from an email app to a browser, etc.…

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Point/Counterpoint: Symbolic versus mnemonic logical operators in SAS

November 9, 2015
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Point/Counterpoint: Symbolic versus mnemonic logical operators in SAS

In SAS, the DATA step and PROC SQL support mnemonic logical operators. The Boolean operators AND, OR, and NOT are used for evaluating logical expressions. The comparison operators are EQ (equal), NE (not equal), GT (greater than), LT (less than), GE (greater than or equal), and LE (less than or […] The post Point/Counterpoint: Symbolic versus mnemonic logical operators in SAS appeared first on The DO Loop.

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Findings of the Office of Research Misconduct on the Duke U (Potti/Nevins) cancer trial fraud: No one is punished but the patients

November 9, 2015
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Findings of the Office of Research Misconduct on the Duke U (Potti/Nevins) cancer trial fraud: No one is punished but the patients

Findings of Research Misconduct A Notice by the Health and Human Services Dept on 11/09/2015 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, HHS. ACTION: Notice. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- SUMMARY: Notice is hereby given that the Office of Research Integrity (ORI) has taken final action in the following case: Anil Potti, M.D., Duke University School of Medicine: Based on the […]

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Understanding Statistical Inference

November 9, 2015
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Understanding Statistical Inference

Inference is THE big idea of statistics. This is where people come unstuck. Most people can accept the use of summary descriptive statistics and graphs. They can understand why data is needed. They can see that the way a sample … Continue reading →

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Fast food, fast publication

November 8, 2015
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Fast food, fast publication

The following article is getting quite a lot of press right now: David Just and Brian Wansink (2015), “Fast Food, Soft Drink, and Candy Intake is Unrelated to Body Mass Index for 95% of American Adults”, Obesity Science & Practice, forthcoming (upcoming in a new pay for placement journal). Obviously it is a sensational contrary … Continue reading Fast food, fast publication

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Mutually Exclusive Clusters Are Boxes within Which Consumers No Longer Fit

November 8, 2015
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Mutually Exclusive Clusters Are Boxes within Which Consumers No Longer Fit

Sometimes we force our categories to be mutually exclusive and exhaustive even as the boundaries are blurring rapidly.Of course, I am speaking of cluster analysis and whether it makes sense to force everyone into one and only one of a set of discrete b...

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You won’t believe these stunning transformations: How to parameterize hyperpriors in hierarchical models?

November 8, 2015
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You won’t believe these stunning transformations:  How to parameterize hyperpriors in hierarchical models?

Isaac Armstrong writes: I was working through your textbook “Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models” but wanted to learn more and started working through your “Bayesian Data Analysis” text. I’ve got a few questions about your rat tumor example that I’d like to ask. I’ve been trying to understand one of the hierarchical models […] The post You won’t believe these stunning transformations: How to parameterize hyperpriors in hierarchical…

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3 new priors you can’t do without, for coefficients and variance parameters in multilevel regression

November 8, 2015
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Partha Lahiri writes, in reference to my 2006 paper: I am interested in finding out a good prior for the regression coefficients and variance components in a multi-level setting. For concreteness, let’s say we have a model like the following: Level 1: Y_ijk | theta_ij ~(ind) N( theta_ij, sigma^2) Level 2: theta_ij| mu_i ~(ind) N( […] The post 3 new priors you can’t do without, for coefficients and variance parameters…

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Not So Standard Deviations: Episode 4 – A Gajillion Time Series

November 7, 2015
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Episode 4 of Not So Standard Deviations is hot off the audio editor. In this episode Hilary first explains to me what heck is DevOps and then we talk about the statistical challenges in detecting rare events in an enormous set of time series data. There's also some discussion of Ben and Jerry's and the

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This is a workshop you can’t miss: DataMeetsViz

November 7, 2015
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This is a workshop you can’t miss:  DataMeetsViz

This looks like it was a great conference with an all-star lineup of speakers. You can click through and see the talks. The post This is a workshop you can’t miss: DataMeetsViz appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Soc...

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More on stepped wedge

November 7, 2015
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A couple of months back I talked at the launch of the Trial series on the Stepped Wedge Designed, on which I have worked together with a number of colleagues at UCL and LSHTM. Jennifer, who's one of the authors of the series and is doing her ...

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Milano 2

November 7, 2015
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I'm not talking about this, but rather the curious, I'd say, coincidence that brings me to Milan for the second time in a matter of 4/5 months for a health economics conference. Back in July, I went to iHEA, which, by and large, was a very good confere...

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What happened to mortality among 45-54-year-old white non-Hispanics? It declined from 1989 to 1999, increased from 1999 to 2005, and held steady after that.

November 7, 2015
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What happened to mortality among 45-54-year-old white non-Hispanics?  It declined from 1989 to 1999, increased from 1999 to 2005, and held steady after that.

The raw death rates for the group (which appeared in the Case-Deaton paper) are in red, and the age-adjusted death rates (weighting each year of age equally) are in black. So . . . the age-adjusted mortality in this group increased by 5% from 1999 to 2005 and has held steady thereafter. But if you […] The post What happened to mortality among 45-54-year-old white non-Hispanics? It declined from 1989…

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Age adjustment mortality update

November 6, 2015
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Age adjustment mortality update

Earlier today I discussed a paper by Anne Case and Angus Deaton in which they noted an increase in mortality rates among non-Hispanic white Americans from 1989 to 2013, a pattern that stood in sharp contrast to a decrease in several other rich countries and among U.S. Hispanics as well: Interpretation of this graph is […] The post Age adjustment mortality update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and…

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Conference on Bond Markets and Yield Curve Modeling

November 6, 2015
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Fantastic job by Bank of Canada and FRBSF. Kudos to both for successfully assembling such talent.    It's just ending as I write.  It was all good, but the papers/discussants that resonated most with me were:Session 4: Predicti...

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Complexity in Economics: Big Data and Parallelization

November 6, 2015
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Good conference in Switzerland. I was not there, but my colleague Frank Schorfheide sends glowing reports. For my tastes/interests at the moment, I am most intrigued by titles like:Davide Pettenuzzo, Brandeis UniversityBayesian Compressed Vector Autore...

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How I decide when to trust an R package

November 6, 2015
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How I decide when to trust an R package

One thing that I've given a lot of thought to recently is the process that I use to decide whether I trust an R package or not. Kasper Hansen took a break from trolling me on Twitter to talk about how he trusts packages on Github less than packages that are on CRAN and particularly Bioconductor.

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Correcting statistical biases in “Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century”: We need to adjust for the increase in average age of people in the 45-54 category

November 6, 2015
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Correcting statistical biases in “Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century”:  We need to adjust for the increase in average age of people in the 45-54 category

In a much-noticed paper, Anne Case and Angus Deaton write: This paper documents a marked increase in the all-cause mortality of middle-aged white non-Hispanic men and women in the United States between 1999 and 2013. This change reversed decades of progress in mortality and was unique to the United States; no other rich country saw […] The post Correcting statistical biases in “Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white…

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4 for 4.0 — The Latest JAGS

November 6, 2015
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This post is by Bob Carpenter. I just saw over on Martyn Plummer’s JAGS News blog that JAGS 4.0 is out. Martyn provided a series of blog posts highlighting the new features: 1. Reproducibility: Examples will now be fully reproducible draw-for-draw and chain-for-chain with the same seed. (Of course, compiler, optimization level, platform, CPU, and […] The post 4 for 4.0 — The Latest JAGS appeared first on Statistical Modeling,…

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Jobs at Monash University

November 6, 2015
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Jobs at Monash University

We have two new continuing positions currently being advertised in our department: for lecturer and senior lecturer. Details are on the Monash website. (For those in North America, a lecturer is equivalent to your assistant professor, and a senior lecturer is equivalent to your associate professor. See the Wikipedia article on Australian academic ranks for […]

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