Excursion 3 Tour III: A long-standing family feud among frequentists is between hypotheses tests and confidence intervals (CIs). In fact there’s a clear duality between the two: the parameter values within the (1 – α) CI are those that are not rejectable by the corresponding test at level α. (3.7) illuminates both CIs and severity […]

# Category: Statistics

## a question from McGill about The Bayesian Choice

I received an email from a group of McGill students working on Bayesian statistics and using The Bayesian Choice (although the exercise pictured below is not in the book, the closest being exercise 1.53 inspired from Raiffa and Shlaiffer, 1961, and exercise 5.10 as mentioned in the email): There was a question that some of […]

## “Thus, a loss aversion principle is rendered superfluous to an account of the phenomena it was introduced to explain.”

What better day than Christmas, that day of gift-giving, to discuss “loss aversion,” the purported asymmetry in utility, whereby losses are systematically more painful than gains are pleasant? Loss aversion is a core principle of the heuristics and biases paradigm of psychology and behavioral economics. But it’s been controversial for a long time. For example, […]

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## “Thus, a loss aversion principle is rendered superfluous to an account of the phenomena it was introduced to explain.”

What better day than Christmas, that day of gift-giving, to discuss “loss aversion,” the purported asymmetry in utility, whereby losses are systematically more painful than gains are pleasant? Loss aversion is a core principle of the heuristics and biases paradigm of psychology and behavioral economics. But it’s been controversial for a long time. For example, […]

The post “Thus, a loss aversion principle is rendered superfluous to an account of the phenomena it was introduced to explain.” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## Binomial vs Bernoulli

An interesting confusion on X validated where someone was convinced that using the Bernoulli representation of a sequence of Bernoulli experiments led to different posterior probabilities of two possible models than when using their Binomial representation. The confusion actually stemmed from using different conditionals, namely N¹=4,N²=1 in the first case (for a model M¹ with […]

## June is applied regression exam month!

So. I just graded the final exams for our applied regression class. Lots of students made mistakes which gave me the feeling that I didn’t teach the material so well. So I thought it could help lots of people out there if I were to share the questions, solutions, and common errors. It was an […]

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## June is applied regression exam month!

So. I just graded the final exams for our applied regression class. Lots of students made mistakes which gave me the feeling that I didn’t teach the material so well. So I thought it could help lots of people out there if I were to share the questions, solutions, and common errors. It was an […]

The post June is applied regression exam month! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## Zak David expresses critical views of some published research in empirical quantitative finance

In honor of Ebenezer Scrooge, what better time than Christmas Eve to discuss the topic of liquidity in capital markets . . . A journalist asked, “I just wanted to know how bad the problem of data mining is in capital markets compared to other fields, and whether the reasons for false postives in finance […]

The post Zak David expresses critical views of some published research in empirical quantitative finance appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## Zak David expresses critical views of some published research in empirical quantitative finance

In honor of Ebenezer Scrooge, what better time than Christmas Eve to discuss the topic of liquidity in capital markets . . . A journalist asked, “I just wanted to know how bad the problem of data mining is in capital markets compared to other fields, and whether the reasons for false postives in finance […]

The post Zak David expresses critical views of some published research in empirical quantitative finance appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## support red X

## “When Both Men and Women Drop Out of the Labor Force, Why Do Economists Only Ask About Men?”

Dean Baker points to this column, where Gregory Mankiw writes: With unemployment at 3.8 percent, its lowest level in many years, the labor market seems healthy. But that number hides a perplexing anomaly: The percentage of men who are neither working nor looking for work has risen substantially over the past several decades. . . […]

The post “When Both Men and Women Drop Out of the Labor Force, Why Do Economists Only Ask About Men?” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## “When Both Men and Women Drop Out of the Labor Force, Why Do Economists Only Ask About Men?”

Dean Baker points to this column, where Gregory Mankiw writes: With unemployment at 3.8 percent, its lowest level in many years, the labor market seems healthy. But that number hides a perplexing anomaly: The percentage of men who are neither working nor looking for work has risen substantially over the past several decades. . . […]

The post “When Both Men and Women Drop Out of the Labor Force, Why Do Economists Only Ask About Men?” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## a new method to solve the transformation of calculus

An hilariously ridiculous email I just received (warning: book cover unrelated): Good day! this is very important to the “Mathematics” and the related fields, “The Simulator”,“Probability theory”,”Statistics”,”Numerical Analysis”, “Cryptography”,“Data mining”,“The big data analysis”and“Artificial Intelligence”. The transformation of random variables in Calculus is very difficult and sometimes is impossible to be done. The simulator can get […]

## New prime record: 51st Mersenne prime discovered

A new prime record was announced yesterday. The largest known prime is now Written in hexadecimal the newly discovered prime is For decades the largest known prime has been a Mersenne prime because there’s an efficient test for checking whether a Mersenne number is prime. I explain the test here. There are now 51 known […]

## Carol Nickerson explains what those mysterious diagrams were saying

A few years ago, James Coyne asked, “Can you make sense of this diagram?” and I responded, No, I can’t. At the time, Carol Nickerson wrote up explanations for two of the figures in the article in question. So if anyone’s interested, here they are: Carol Nickerson’s explanation of Figure 2 in Kok et al. […]

The post Carol Nickerson explains what those mysterious diagrams were saying appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## Carol Nickerson explains what those mysterious diagrams were saying

A few years ago, James Coyne asked, “Can you make sense of this diagram?” and I responded, No, I can’t. At the time, Carol Nickerson wrote up explanations for two of the figures in the article in question. So if anyone’s interested, here they are: Carol Nickerson’s explanation of Figure 2 in Kok et al. […]

The post Carol Nickerson explains what those mysterious diagrams were saying appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

## Simulating Persian Monarchs gameplay

Persian Monarchs described by P. G. Wodehouse in one of his funniest novels is an extremely simple fictional card game, but the gambling makes it a game of skill, and we can even construct plausible different strategies for winning. A good strategy inv…

## Network for early career researchers in forecasting

The International Institute of Forecasters has established interest group sections, devoted to specialized domains of forecasting. One of the first such sections will be for early career researchers.

So if you are a PhD student, post-doc, or otherwise …

## waiting for the red lights to change

## Multi-arm adaptively randomized clinical trials

This post will look at adaptively randomized trial designs. In particular, we want to focus on multi-arm trials, i.e. trials of more than two treatments. The aim is to drop the less effective treatments quickly so the trial can focus on determining which of the better treatments is best. We’ll briefly review our approach to […]