Category: Statistics

For Popper’s Birthday: Reading from Conjectures and Refutations (+ self-test)

Today is Karl Popper’s birthday. I’m linking to a reading from his Conjectures and Refutations[i] along with: Popper Self-Test Questions. It includes multiple choice questions, quotes to ponder, an essay, and thumbnail definitions at the end[ii]. Blog Readers who wish to send me their answers will have their papers graded [use the comments or error@vt.edu.] An A- or better […]

Of Tennys players and moral Hazards

Zach Shahn writes: After watching Tennys Sandgren play in the Australian Open quarterfinals last night, I think it might be time to accept that the dentists named Dennis people were onto something. Looking him up revealed that he was named after his great grandfather and not by a Richard Williams type parent who planned on […]

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Of Tennys players and moral Hazards

Zach Shahn writes: After watching Tennys Sandgren play in the Australian Open quarterfinals last night, I think it might be time to accept that the dentists named Dennis people were onto something. Looking him up revealed that he was named after his great grandfather and not by a Richard Williams type parent who planned on […]

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How dumb do you have to be…

I (Phil) just read an article about Apple. Here’s the last sentence: “Apple has beaten earnings expectations in every quarter but one since March 2013.”
[Note added a week later: on July 31 Apple reported earnings for the fiscal third…

How dumb do you have to be…

I (Phil) just read an article about Apple. Here’s the last sentence: “Apple has beaten earnings expectations in every quarter but one since March 2013.”
 
The post How dumb do you have to be… appeared first on Statistical M…

What makes Robin Pemantle’s bag of tricks for teaching math so great?

It’s here, and he even calls it a “bag of tricks”! Robin’s suggestions are similar to what Deb and I recommend, but Robin’s article is a crisp 25 pages and is purely focused on general advice for getting things to go well in the classroom, whereas we spend most of our book on specific activities […]

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What makes Robin Pemantle’s bag of tricks for teaching math so great?

It’s here, and he even calls it a “bag of tricks”! Robin’s suggestions are similar to what Deb and I recommend, but Robin’s article is a crisp 25 pages and is purely focused on general advice for getting things to go well in the classroom, whereas we spend most of our book on specific activities […]

The post What makes Robin Pemantle’s bag of tricks for teaching math so great? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Why I Indent My Code 8 Spaces

Jenny Bryan recently gave a wonderful talk at the Use R! 2018 meeting in Brisbane about “Code Smells and Feels” (I recommend you watch a video of that talk). Her talk covers various ways to detect when your code “smells” and how to fix those smells thr…

Awesome MCMC animation site by Chi Feng! On Github!

Sean Talts and Bob Carpenter pointed us to this awesome MCMC animation site by Chi Feng. For instance, here’s NUTS on a banana-shaped density. This is indeed super-cool, and maybe there’s a way to connect these with Stan/ShinyStan/Bayesplot so as to automatically make movies of Stan model fits. This would be great, both to help […]

The post Awesome MCMC animation site by Chi Feng! On Github! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Awesome MCMC animation site by Chi Feng! On Github!

Sean Talts and Bob Carpenter pointed us to this awesome MCMC animation site by Chi Feng. For instance, here’s NUTS on a banana-shaped density. This is indeed super-cool, and maybe there’s a way to connect these with Stan/ShinyStan/Bayesplot so as to automatically make movies of Stan model fits. This would be great, both to help […]

The post Awesome MCMC animation site by Chi Feng! On Github! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

How to think about an accelerating string of research successes?

While reading this post by Seth Frey on famous scientists who couldn’t let go of bad ideas, I followed a link to this post by David Gorski from 2010 entitled, “Luc Montagnier: The Nobel disease strikes again.” The quick story is that Montagnier endorsed some dubious theories. Here’s Gorski: He only won the Nobel Prize […]

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How to think about an accelerating string of research successes?

While reading this post by Seth Frey on famous scientists who couldn’t let go of bad ideas, I followed a link to this post by David Gorski from 2010 entitled, “Luc Montagnier: The Nobel disease strikes again.” The quick story is that Montagnier endorsed some dubious theories. Here’s Gorski: He only won the Nobel Prize […]

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Parsimonious principle vs integration over all uncertainties

tl;dr If you have bad models, bad priors or bad inference choose the simplest possible model. If you have good models, good priors, good inference, use the most elaborate model for predictions. To make interpretation easier you may use a smaller model with similar predictive performance as the most elaborate model. Merijn Mestdagh emailed me […]

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Parsimonious principle vs integration over all uncertainties

tl;dr If you have bad models, bad priors or bad inference choose the simplest possible model. If you have good models, good priors, good inference, use the most elaborate model for predictions. To make interpretation easier you may use a smaller model with similar predictive performance as the most elaborate model. Merijn Mestdagh emailed me […]

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Advice on “soft skills” for academics

Julia Hirschberg sent this along to the natural language processing mailing list at Columbia: here are some slides from last spring’s CRA-W Grad Cohort and previous years that might be of interest. all sorts of topics such as interviewing, building confidence, finding a thesis topic, preparing your thesis proposal, publishing, entrepreneurialism, and a very interesting […]

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Advice on soft skills for academics

Julia Hirschberg sent this along to the natural language processing mailing list at Columbia: here are some slides from last spring’s CRA-W Grad Cohort and previous years that might be of interest. all sorts of topics such as interviewing, building confidence, finding a thesis topic, preparing your thesis proposal, publishing, entrepreneurialism, and a very interesting […]

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Journals and refereeing: toward a new equilibrium

As we’ve discussed before (see also here), one of the difficulties of moving from our current system of review of scientific journal articles, to a new model of post-publication review, is that any major change seems likely to break the current “gift economy” system in which thousands of scientists put in millions of hours providing […]

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Journals and refereeing: toward a new equilibrium

As we’ve discussed before (see also here), one of the difficulties of moving from our current system of review of scientific journal articles, to a new model of post-publication review, is that any major change seems likely to break the current “gift economy” system in which thousands of scientists put in millions of hours providing […]

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Recently in the sister blog

In the article, “Testing the role of convergence in language acquisition, with implications for creole genesis,” Marlyse Baptista et al. write: The main objective of this paper is to test experimentally the role of convergence in language acquisition (second language acquisition specifically), with implications for creole genesis. . . . Our experiment is unique on […]

The post Recently in the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Recently in the sister blog

In the article, “Testing the role of convergence in language acquisition, with implications for creole genesis,” Marlyse Baptista et al. write: The main objective of this paper is to test experimentally the role of convergence in language acquisition (second language acquisition specifically), with implications for creole genesis. . . . Our experiment is unique on […]

The post Recently in the sister blog appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.