Category: Statistics

Zak David expresses critical views of some published research in empirical quantitative finance

In honor of Ebenezer Scrooge, what better time than Christmas Eve to discuss the topic of liquidity in capital markets . . . A journalist asked, “I just wanted to know how bad the problem of data mining is in capital markets compared to other fields, and whether the reasons for false postives in finance […]

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Zak David expresses critical views of some published research in empirical quantitative finance

In honor of Ebenezer Scrooge, what better time than Christmas Eve to discuss the topic of liquidity in capital markets . . . A journalist asked, “I just wanted to know how bad the problem of data mining is in capital markets compared to other fields, and whether the reasons for false postives in finance […]

The post Zak David expresses critical views of some published research in empirical quantitative finance appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“When Both Men and Women Drop Out of the Labor Force, Why Do Economists Only Ask About Men?”

Dean Baker points to this column, where Gregory Mankiw writes: With unemployment at 3.8 percent, its lowest level in many years, the labor market seems healthy. But that number hides a perplexing anomaly: The percentage of men who are neither working nor looking for work has risen substantially over the past several decades. . . […]

The post “When Both Men and Women Drop Out of the Labor Force, Why Do Economists Only Ask About Men?” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“When Both Men and Women Drop Out of the Labor Force, Why Do Economists Only Ask About Men?”

Dean Baker points to this column, where Gregory Mankiw writes: With unemployment at 3.8 percent, its lowest level in many years, the labor market seems healthy. But that number hides a perplexing anomaly: The percentage of men who are neither working nor looking for work has risen substantially over the past several decades. . . […]

The post “When Both Men and Women Drop Out of the Labor Force, Why Do Economists Only Ask About Men?” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

a new method to solve the transformation of calculus

An hilariously ridiculous email I just received (warning: book cover unrelated): Good day! this is very important to the “Mathematics” and the related fields, “The Simulator”,“Probability theory”,”Statistics”,”Numerical Analysis”, “Cryptography”,“Data mining”,“The big data analysis”and“Artificial Intelligence”. The transformation of random variables in Calculus is very difficult and sometimes is impossible to be done. The simulator can get […]

New prime record: 51st Mersenne prime discovered

A new prime record was announced yesterday. The largest known prime is now Written in hexadecimal the newly discovered prime is For decades the largest known prime has been a Mersenne prime because there’s an efficient test for checking whether a Mersenne number is prime. I explain the test here. There are now 51 known […]

Carol Nickerson explains what those mysterious diagrams were saying

A few years ago, James Coyne asked, “Can you make sense of this diagram?” and I responded, No, I can’t. At the time, Carol Nickerson wrote up explanations for two of the figures in the article in question. So if anyone’s interested, here they are: Carol Nickerson’s explanation of Figure 2 in Kok et al. […]

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Carol Nickerson explains what those mysterious diagrams were saying

A few years ago, James Coyne asked, “Can you make sense of this diagram?” and I responded, No, I can’t. At the time, Carol Nickerson wrote up explanations for two of the figures in the article in question. So if anyone’s interested, here they are: Carol Nickerson’s explanation of Figure 2 in Kok et al. […]

The post Carol Nickerson explains what those mysterious diagrams were saying appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Multi-arm adaptively randomized clinical trials

This post will look at adaptively randomized trial designs. In particular, we want to focus on multi-arm trials, i.e. trials of more than two treatments. The aim is to drop the less effective treatments quickly so the trial can focus on determining which of the better treatments is best. We’ll briefly review our approach to […]

Kepler and the contraction mapping theorem

The contraction mapping theorem says that if a function moves points closer together, then there must be some point the function doesn’t move. We’ll make this statement more precise and give a historically important application. Definitions and theorem A function f on a metric space X is a contraction if there exists a constant q with […]

The causal hype ratchet

Noah Haber informs us of a research article, “Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review,” that he wrote with Emily Smith, Ellen Moscoe, Kathryn Andrews, Robin Audy, Winnie Bell, Alana Brennan, Alexander Breskin, Jeremy Kane, Mahesh Karra, Elizabeth McClure, and Elizabeth Suarez, and […]

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The causal hype ratchet

Noah Haber informs us of a research article, “Causal language and strength of inference in academic and media articles shared in social media (CLAIMS): A systematic review,” that he wrote with Emily Smith, Ellen Moscoe, Kathryn Andrews, Robin Audy, Winnie Bell, Alana Brennan, Alexander Breskin, Jeremy Kane, Mahesh Karra, Elizabeth McClure, and Elizabeth Suarez, and […]

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“more Bayesian” GANs

On X validated, I got pointed to this recent paper by He, Wang, Lee and Tiang, that proposes a new form of Bayesian GAN. Although I do not see it as really Bayesian, as explained below. “[The] existing Bayesian method (Saatchi & Wilson, 2017) may lead to incompatible conditionals, which suggest that the underlying joint […]