Category: Statistics

approximate likelihood perspective on ABC

George Karabatsos and Fabrizio Leisen have recently published in Statistics Surveys a fairly complete survey on ABC methods [which earlier arXival I had missed]. Listing within an extensive bibliography of 20 pages some twenty-plus earlier reviews on ABC (with further ones in applied domains)! “(…) any ABC method (algorithm) can be categorized as either (1) […]

Trademark symbol, LaTeX, and Unicode

Earlier this year I was a coauthor on a paper about the Cap Score™ test for male fertility from Androvia Life Sciences [1]. I just noticed today that when I added the publication to my CV, it caused some garbled text to appear in the PDF. Here is the corresponding LaTeX source code. Fixing the […]

Rotary

We try to keep this blog mostly technical and business (as we assume that is what our readers are here for). However, this post is going to be an exception. I’ve just got back from photographing the Rotary Club of San Francisco‘s 2018 Holiday Party. We had a special guest SF Mayor London Breed (shown … Continue reading Rotary

RSA with one shared prime

The RSA encryption setup begins by finding two large prime numbers. These numbers are kept secret, but their product is made public. We discuss below just how difficult it is to recover two large primes from knowing their product. Suppose two people share one prime. That is, one person chooses primes p and q and the other chooses p […]

When “nudge” doesn’t work: Medication Reminders to Outcomes After Myocardial Infarction

Gur Huberman points to this news article by Aaron Carroll, “Don’t Nudge Me: The Limits of Behavioral Economics in Medicine,” which reports on a recent study by Kevin Volpp et al. that set out “to determine whether a system of medication reminders using financial incentives and social support delays subsequent vascular events in patients following […]

The post When “nudge” doesn’t work: Medication Reminders to Outcomes After Myocardial Infarction appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

When “nudge” doesn’t work: Medication Reminders to Outcomes After Myocardial Infarction

Gur Huberman points to this news article by Aaron Carroll, “Don’t Nudge Me: The Limits of Behavioral Economics in Medicine,” which reports on a recent study by Kevin Volpp et al. that set out “to determine whether a system of medication reminders using financial incentives and social support delays subsequent vascular events in patients following […]

The post When “nudge” doesn’t work: Medication Reminders to Outcomes After Myocardial Infarction appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

The Netflix Data War

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal, “At Netflix, Who Wins When It’s Hollywood vs. the Algorithm?” by Shalini Ramachandran and Joe Flint details some of the internal debates within Netflix between the Los Angeles-based content tea…

a glaringly long explanation

It is funny that, when I am teaching the rudiments of Bayesian statistics to my undergraduate students in Paris-Dauphine, including ABC via Rasmus’ socks, specific questions about the book (The Bayesian Choice) start popping up on X validated! Last week was about the proof that ABC is exact when the tolerance is zero. And the […]

Comparing racism from different eras: If only Tucker Carlson had been around in the 1950s he could’ve been a New York Intellectual.

TV commentator Carlson in 2018 recently raised a stir by saying that immigration makes the United States “poorer, and dirtier, and more divided,” which reminded me of this rant from literary critic Alfred Kazin in 1957: Kazin put it in his diary and Carlson broadcast it on TV, so not quite the same thing. But […]

The post Comparing racism from different eras: If only Tucker Carlson had been around in the 1950s he could’ve been a New York Intellectual. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Comparing racism from different eras: If only Tucker Carlson had been around in the 1950s he could’ve been a New York Intellectual.

TV commentator Carlson in 2018 recently raised a stir by saying that immigration makes the United States “poorer, and dirtier, and more divided,” which reminded me of this rant from literary critic Alfred Kazin in 1957: Kazin put it in his diary and Carlson broadcast it on TV, so not quite the same thing. But […]

The post Comparing racism from different eras: If only Tucker Carlson had been around in the 1950s he could’ve been a New York Intellectual. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Classifying yin and yang using MRI

Zad Chow writes: I wanted to pass along this study I found a while back that aimed to see whether there was any possible signal in an ancient Chinese theory of depression that classifies major depressive disorder into “yin” and “yang” subtypes. The authors write the following, The “Yin and Yang” theory is a fundamental […]

The post Classifying yin and yang using MRI appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Classifying yin and yang using MRI

Zad Chow writes: I wanted to pass along this study I found a while back that aimed to see whether there was any possible signal in an ancient Chinese theory of depression that classifies major depressive disorder into “yin” and “yang” subtypes. The authors write the following, The “Yin and Yang” theory is a fundamental […]

The post Classifying yin and yang using MRI appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

vtreat Variable Importance

vtreat‘s purpose is to produce pure numeric R data.frames that are ready for supervised predictive modeling (predicting a value from other values). By ready we mean: a purely numeric data frame with no missing values and a reasonable number of columns (missing-values re-encoded with indicators, and high-degree categorical re-encode by effects codes or impact codes). … Continue reading vtreat Variable Importance

Following an idea to its logical conclusion

Following an idea to its logical conclusion might be extrapolating a model beyond its valid range. Suppose you have a football field with area A. If you make two parallel sides twice as long, then the area will be 2A. If you double the length of the sides again, the area will be 4A. Following this […]

Why do sociologists (and bloggers) focus on the negative? 5 possible explanations. (A post in the style of Fabio Rojas)

Fabio Rojas asks why the academic field of sociology seems so focused on the negative. As he puts it, why doesn’t the semester begin with the statement, “Hi, everyone, this is soc 101, the scientific study of society. In this class, I’ll tell you about how American society is moving in some great directions as […]

The post Why do sociologists (and bloggers) focus on the negative? 5 possible explanations. (A post in the style of Fabio Rojas) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Why do sociologists (and bloggers) focus on the negative? 5 possible explanations. (A post in the style of Fabio Rojas)

Fabio Rojas asks why the academic field of sociology seems so focused on the negative. As he puts it, why doesn’t the semester begin with the statement, “Hi, everyone, this is soc 101, the scientific study of society. In this class, I’ll tell you about how American society is moving in some great directions as […]

The post Why do sociologists (and bloggers) focus on the negative? 5 possible explanations. (A post in the style of Fabio Rojas) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Technological optimism

Kevin Kelly is one of the most optimistic people writing about technology, but there’s a nuance to his optimism that isn’t widely appreciated. Kelly sees technological progress as steady and inevitable, but not monotone. He has often said that new technologies create almost as many problems as they solve. Maybe it’s 10 steps forward and […]

Quoting Concatenate

In our last note we used wrapr::qe() to help quote expressions. In this note we will discuss quoting and code-capturing interfaces (interfaces that capture user source code) a bit more. My position on code-capturing interfaces (or non-standard-evaluation/NSE) is: if poorly handled, they can be a large interface price/risk to pay for the minor convenience of … Continue reading Quoting Concatenate