Category: Decision Theory

On deck through the rest of the year

July: The Ponzi threshold and the Armstrong principle Flaws in stupid horrible algorithm revealed because it made numerical predictions PNAS forgets basic principles of game theory, thus dooming thousands of Bothans to the fate of Alderaan Tutorial: The practical application of complicated statistical methods to fill up the scientific literature with confusing and irrelevant analyses […]

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The “Psychological Science Accelerator”: it’s probably a good idea but I’m still skeptical

Asher Meir points us to this post by Christie Aschwanden entitled, “Can Teamwork Solve One Of Psychology’s Biggest Problems?”, which begins: Psychologist Christopher Chartier admits to a case of “physics envy.” That field boasts numerous projects on which international research teams come together to tackle big questions. Just think of CERN’s Large Hadron Collider or […]

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Ways of knowing in computer science and statistics

Brad Groff writes: Thought you might find this post by Ferenc Huszar interesting. Commentary on how we create knowledge in machine learning research and how we resolve benchmark results with (belated) theory. Key passage: You can think of “making a a deep learning method work on a dataset” as a statistical test. I would argue […]

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Answering the question, What predictors are more important?, going beyond p-value thresholding and ranking

Daniel Kapitan writes: We are in the process of writing a paper on the outcome of cataract surgery. A (very rough!) draft can be found here, to provide you with some context:  https://www.overleaf.com/read/wvnwzjmrffmw. Using standard classification methods (Python sklearn, with synthetic oversampling to address the class imbalance), we are able to predict a poor outcome […]

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Chasing the noise in industrial A/B testing: what to do when all the low-hanging fruit have been picked?

Commenting on this post on the “80% power” lie, Roger Bohn writes: The low power problem bugged me so much in the semiconductor industry that I wrote 2 papers about around 1995. Variability estimates come naturally from routine manufacturing statistics, which in semicon were tracked carefully because they are economically important. The sample size is […]

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About that quasi-retracted study on the Mediterranean diet . . .

Some people asked me what I thought about this story. A reporter wrote to me about it last week, asking if it looked like fraud. Here’s my reply: Based on the description, there does not seem to be the implication of fraud. The editor’s report mentioned “protocol deviations, including the enrollment of participants who were […]

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