Category: Decision Theory

R package for Type M and Type S errors

Andy Garland Timm writes: My package for working with Type S/M errors in hypothesis testing, ‘retrodesign’, is now up on CRAN. It builds on the code provided by Gelman and Carlin (2014) with functions for calculating type S/M errors across a variety of effect sizes as suggested for design analysis in the paper, a function […]

LeBron James (3) vs. Meryl Streep; Pele advances

Yesterday I was gonna go with Turing following Dalton’s eloquent argument: To his credit, Pele didn’t have to play in the era of VAR (video assistant referees). As last Tuesday’s Champions League game between Paris – Saint Germain and Manchester United (as well as the recent World Cup final between Croatia and France) demonstrate, there […]

Alan Turing (4) vs. Pele; Veronica Geng advances

I gotta go with Geng, based on this from Jonathan: I was all in on Geng, as you know, but I have no idea what she sounded like. But it’s not the voice is it? It’s the content. And listen to what Geng could do (Remorse, April 7, 1986) “I will also spend one hundred […]

Veronica Geng vs. Nora Ephron; Riad Sattouf advances

Not much going on in yesterday‘s Past vs. Future battle. Maybe we should’ve brought in Michael J. Fox as a guest judge . . . Anyway, the best argument in the comments came from Ethan: Since we can’t have Mr P let’s have Mr B. Ahhh, but we can have Mr P. We can always […]

Riad Sattouf (1) vs. Mel Brooks; Bruce Springsteen advances

Dalton crisply solved yesterday’s problem right away with, The real test is would you rather have Bruce Springsteen cook for you or have Julia Child sing to you? To ask this question is to answer it. I didn’t even read any comments after that one. Today’s matchup is more exciting. It’s The Arab of the […]

Yes on design analysis, No on “power,” No on sample size calculations

Kevin Lewis points us to this paper, “Sample-Size Planning for More Accurate Statistical Power: A Method Adjusting Sample Effect Sizes for Publication Bias and Uncertainty,” by Samantha Anderson, Ken Kelley, and Scott Maxwell. My reaction: Yes, it’s reasonable, but I have two big problems with the general approach: 1. I don’t like talk of power […]

Round 3 begins: Jim Thorpe (1) vs. Sid Caesar

Today’s contest is a tough call. Caesar is the king of live TV, a real originator—but he did not write his own material, so it could be risky to invite him without getting Carl Reiner, Woody Allen, etc., as support staff. Thorpe is a legend but probably not much of a performer. Both Caesar and […]

Meryl Streep advances and the second round is over!

Best comment yesterday came from Dalton: Yakov Smirnoff’s relevance died with the Soviet Union. And he knows it, which is why he’s apparently now giving motivational talks entitled “Happily Ever Laughter: The Neuroscience of Romantic Relationships”. You can even watch in on PBS: https://www.pbssocal.org/programs/yakov-smirnoffs-happily-ever-laughter/ When I want to experience breathlessly credulous regurgitation of bullshit science […]

Meryl Streep vs. Yakov Smirnoff; LeBron James advances

Yesterday‘s contest was lively. The two best arguments both favor LeBron. From Manuel: And King James said unto them, What seemeth you best I will do. And the king stood by the gate side, and all the people came out by hundreds and by thousands. And from Zbicyclist followed by Dalton: LeBron has been in […]

Ellen DeGeneres vs. LeBron James (3); Pele advances

Not a lot yesterday; maybe Phil‘s right that the formation of the brackets is sometimes more fun than the actual competitions. Anyway, best argument came from Ethan: We’ve not thought at all about language. I think modern Portuguese might do better in Columbia’s neighborhood than classic French. Laplace would write equations in a universal language […]

Pele vs. Pierre Simon Laplace (2); Alan Turing advances

Best comment yesterday came from Manuel: Turing did not know how to train a machine to pass the Turing test. I’m sure Oprah knows how train a person to pass the Oprah test. But there is no Oprah test. So Turing will advance. Maybe next time we do this competition we can include Alison Bechdel. […]