Category: Decision Theory

Bayesian model comparison in ecology

Conor Goold writes: I was reading this overview of mixed-effect modeling in ecology, and thought you or your blog readers may be interested in their last conclusion (page 35): Other modelling approaches such as Bayesian inference are available, and allow much greater flexibility in choice of model structure, error structure and link function. However, the […]

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“Richard Jarecki, Doctor Who Conquered Roulette, Dies at 86”

[relevant video] Thanatos Savehn is right. This obituary, written by someone named “Daniel Slotnik” (!), is just awesome: Many gamblers see roulette as a game of pure chance — a wheel is spun, a ball is released and winners and losers are determined by luck. Richard Jarecki refused to believe it was that simple. He […]

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“Richard Jarecki, Doctor Who Conquered Roulette, Dies at 86”

[relevant video] Thanatos Savehn is right. This obituary, written by someone named “Daniel Slotnik” (!), is just awesome: Many gamblers see roulette as a game of pure chance — a wheel is spun, a ball is released and winners and losers are determined by luck. Richard Jarecki refused to believe it was that simple. He […]

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Trapped in the spam folder? Here’s what to do.

[Somewhat-relevant image] It seems that some people’s comments are getting trapped in the spam filter. Here’s how things go. The blog software triages the comments: 1. Most legitimate comments are automatically approved. You write the comment and it shows up right away. 2. Some comments are flagged as potentially spam. About half of these are […]

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Trapped in the spam folder? Here’s what to do.

[Somewhat-relevant image] It seems that some people’s comments are getting trapped in the spam filter. Here’s how things go. The blog software triages the comments: 1. Most legitimate comments are automatically approved. You write the comment and it shows up right away. 2. Some comments are flagged as potentially spam. About half of these are […]

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Response to Rafa: Why I don’t think ROC [receiver operating characteristic] works as a model for science

Someone pointed me to this post from a few years ago where Rafael Irizarry argues that scientific “pessimists” such as myself are, at least in some fields, “missing a critical point: that in practice, there is an inverse relationship between increasing rates of true discoveries and decreasing rates of false discoveries and that true discoveries […]

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Response to Rafa: Why I don’t think ROC [receiver operating characteristic] works as a model for science

Someone pointed me to this post from a few years ago where Rafael Irizarry argues that scientific “pessimists” such as myself are, at least in some fields, “missing a critical point: that in practice, there is an inverse relationship between increasing rates of true discoveries and decreasing rates of false discoveries and that true discoveries […]

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Don’t call it a bandit

Here’s why I don’t like the term “multi-armed bandit” to describe the exploration-exploitation tradeoff of inference and decision analysis. First, and less importantly, each slot machine (or “bandit”) only has one arm. Hence it’s many one-armed bandits, not one multi-armed bandit. Second, the basic strategy in these problems is to play on lots of machines […]

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Don’t call it a bandit

Here’s why I don’t like the term “multi-armed bandit” to describe the exploration-exploitation tradeoff of inference and decision analysis. First, and less importantly, each slot machine (or “bandit”) only has one arm. Hence it’s many one-armed bandits, not one multi-armed bandit. Second, the basic strategy in these problems is to play on lots of machines […]

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When LOO and other cross-validation approaches are valid

Introduction Zacco asked in Stan discourse whether LOO is valid for phylogenetic models. He also referred to Dan’s excellent blog post which mentioned iid assumption. Instead of iid it would be better to talk about exchangeability assumption, but I (Aki) got a bit lost in my discourse answer (so don’t bother to go read it). […]

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