In one of the presentations by the last cohort of OxWaSP students, the group decided to implement an ABC model choice strategy based on sequential ABC inspired from Toni et al. (2008). and this made me reconsider this approach (disclaimer: no criticism of the students implied in the following!). Indeed, the outcome of the simulation […]

# Author: xi'an

## Hungarian Academy of Sciences under threat

## and it only gets worse…

” A recent survey by Bankrate.com found that just 40% of US households have enough money to cover a $1,000 in emergency expenses.” The Guardian, Feb 2, 2019 ““Until we heard those cheers coming from Albany, we thought states were moving beyond such barbaric practices.” Mr. Pence offered his argument as a litmus test of […]

## Wolfberger [pinot gris]

## simulation fodder for future exams

Here are two nice exercises for a future simulation exam, seen and solved on X validated.The first one is about simulating a Gibbs sampler associated with the joint target exp{-|x|-|y|-a(y-x|} defined over IR² for a≥0 (or possibly a>-1). The conditionals are identical and non-standard, but a simple bound on the conditional density is the corresponding […]

## leave Bayes factors where they once belonged

In the past weeks I have received and read several papers (and X validated entries)where the Bayes factor is used to compare priors. Which does not look right to me, not on the basis of my general dislike of Bayes factors!, but simply because this seems to clash with the (my?) concept of Bayesian model […]

## Bayesian intelligence in Warwick

This is an announcement for an exciting CRiSM Day in Warwick on 20 March 2019: with speakers 10:00-11:00 Xiao-Li Meng (Harvard): “Artificial Bayesian Monte Carlo Integration: A Practical Resolution to the Bayesian (Normalizing Constant) Paradox” 11:00-12:00 Julien Stoehr (Dauphine): “Gibbs sampling and ABC” 14:00-15:00 Arthur Ulysse Jacot-Guillarmod (École Polytechnique Fedérale de Lausanne): “Neural Tangent Kernel: […]

## Bayesian intelligence in Warwick

This is an announcement for an exciting CRiSM Day in Warwick on 20 March 2019: with speakers 10:00-11:00 Xiao-Li Meng (Harvard): “Artificial Bayesian Monte Carlo Integration: A Practical Resolution to the Bayesian (Normalizing Constant) Paradox” 11:00-12:00 Julien Stoehr (Dauphine): “Gibbs sampling and ABC” 14:00-15:00 Arthur Ulysse Jacot-Guillarmod (École Polytechnique Fedérale de Lausanne): “Neural Tangent Kernel: […]

## Le Monde puzzle [#1085]

A new Le Monde mathematical puzzle in the digit category: Given 13 arbitrary relative integers chosen by Bo, Abigail can select any subset of them to be drifted by plus or minus one by Bo, repeatedly until Abigail reaches the largest possible number N of multiples of 5. What is the minimal possible value of […]

## Le Monde puzzle [#1085]

A new Le Monde mathematical puzzle in the digit category: Given 13 arbitrary relative integers chosen by Bo, Abigail can select any subset of them to be drifted by plus or minus one by Bo, repeatedly until Abigail reaches the largest possible number N of multiples of 5. What is the minimal possible value of […]

## 50/50 photography competition [another public image]

## take a random integer

A weird puzzle from FiveThirtyEight: what is the probability that the product of three random integers is a multiple of 100? Ehrrrr…, what is a random integer?! The solution provided by the Riddler is quite stunning Reading the question charitably (since “random integer” has no specific meaning), there will be an answer if there is […]

## say cheese [jatp]

A picture taken at Jericho Cheese, Little Clarendon Street, Oxford, that I took this week when I visited this cheesemonger for the first time, after several years of passing by its tantalizing display of British cheeses! It happens to have become my most popular picture on Instagram, ranking above the fiery sunrise over the Calanques, […]

## undecidable learnability

“There is an unknown probability distribution P over some finite subset of the interval [0,1]. We get to see m i.i.d. samples from P for m of our choice. We then need to find a finite subset of [0,1] whose P-measure is at least 2/3. The theorem says that the standard axioms of mathematics cannot […]

## O’Bayes 19: registration and travel support

An update about the O’Bayes 19 conference next June-July: the early registration period has now opened. And there should be funds for supporting early-career researchers, thanks to Google and CNRS sponsorships, as detailed below: Early-career researchers less than four years from PhD, are invited to apply for early-career scholarships. If you are a graduate student, […]

## I’m getting the point

A long-winded X validated discussion on the [textbook] mean-variance conjugate posterior for the Normal model left me [mildly] depressed at the point and use of answering questions on this forum. Especially as it came at the same time as a catastrophic outcome for my mathematical statistics exam. Possibly an incentive to quit X validated as […]

## I’m getting the point

A long-winded X validated discussion on the [textbook] mean-variance conjugate posterior for the Normal model left me [mildly] depressed at the point and use of answering questions on this forum. Especially as it came at the same time as a catastrophic outcome for my mathematical statistics exam. Possibly an incentive to quit X validated as […]

## a pen for ABC

Among the flury of papers arXived around the ICML 2019 deadline, I read on my way back from Oxford a paper by Wiqvist et al. on learning summary statistics for ABC by neural nets. Pointing out at another recent paper by Jiang et al. (2017, Statistica Sinica) which constructed a neural network for predicting each […]

## postdoctoral position in computational statistical physics and machine learning

## scalable Metropolis-Hastings

Among the flury of arXived papers of last week (414!), including a fair chunk of papers submitted to ICML 2019, I spotted one entry by Cornish et al. on scalable Metropolis-Hastings, which Arnaud Doucet had mentioned to me yesterday when in Oxford. The paper builds on the delayed acceptance paper we wrote with Marco Banterlé, […]