# Author: xi'an

## auxiliary likelihood ABC in print

Our paper with Gael Martin, Brendan McCabe , David Frazier and Worapree Maneesoonthorn, with full title Auxiliary Likelihood-Based Approximate Bayesian Computation in State Space Models, has now appeared in JCGS. To think that it started in Rimini in 2009, when I met Gael for the first time at the Rimini Bayesian Econometrics conference, although we […]

## Nature tea[dbits]

A very special issue of Nature (7 February 2019, vol. 556, no. 7742). With an outlook section on tea, plus a few research papers (and ads) on my principal beverage. News about the REF, Elsevier’s and Huawei’s woes with the University of California, the dangerous weakening of Title IX by the Trump administration, and a […]

## distributed posteriors

Another presentation by our OxWaSP students introduced me to the notion of distributed posteriors, following a 2018 paper by Botond Szabó and Harry van Zanten. Which corresponds to the construction of posteriors when conducting a divide & conquer strategy. The authors show that an adaptation of the prior to the division of the sample is […]

## how a hiring quota failed [or not]

This week, Nature has a “career news” section dedicated to how hiring quotas [may have] failed for French university hiring. And based solely on a technical report by a Science Po’ Paris researcher. The hiring quota means that every hiring committee for a French public university hiring committee must be made of at least 40% […]

## Le Monde puzzle [#1087]

A board-like Le Monde mathematical puzzle in the digit category: Given a (k,m) binary matrix, what is the maximum number S of entries with only one neighbour equal to one? Solve for k=m=2,…,13, and k=6,m=8. For instance, for k=m=2, the matrix is producing the maximal number 4. I first attempted a brute force random filling […]

## off to Cambodia

Today, I am off to Cambodia for a small conference on Data Science and Finance, mostly finance, actually!, put together by a group of French and Cambodian colleagues and taking place in Siem Reap near the fabulous temples of Angkor Wat. Expect pictures in the following posts if I manage to stand the heat and […]

## call for sessions and labs at Bay2sC0mp²⁰

A call to all potential participants to the incoming BayesComp 2020 conference at the University of Florida in Gainesville, Florida, 7-10 January 2020, to submit proposals [to me] for contributed sessions on everything computational or training labs [to David Rossell] on a specific language or software. The deadline is April 1 and the sessions will […]

## particular degeneracy in ABC model choice

In one of the presentations by the last cohort of OxWaSP students, the group decided to implement an ABC model choice strategy based on sequential ABC inspired from Toni et al.  (2008). and this made me reconsider this approach (disclaimer: no criticism of the students implied in the following!). Indeed, the outcome of the simulation […]

## and it only gets worse…

” A recent survey by Bankrate.com found that just 40% of US households have enough money to cover a \$1,000 in emergency expenses.” The Guardian, Feb 2, 2019 ““Until we heard those cheers coming from Albany, we thought states were moving beyond such barbaric practices.” Mr. Pence offered his argument as a litmus test of […]

## simulation fodder for future exams

Here are two nice exercises for a future simulation exam, seen and solved on X validated.The first one is about simulating a Gibbs sampler associated with the joint target exp{-|x|-|y|-a(y-x|} defined over IR² for a≥0 (or possibly a>-1). The conditionals are identical and non-standard, but a simple bound on the conditional density is the corresponding […]

## leave Bayes factors where they once belonged

In the past weeks I have received and read several papers (and X validated entries)where the Bayes factor is used to compare priors. Which does not look right to me, not on the basis of my general dislike of Bayes factors!, but simply because this seems to clash with the (my?) concept of Bayesian model […]

## Bayesian intelligence in Warwick

This is an announcement for an exciting CRiSM Day in Warwick on 20 March 2019: with speakers 10:00-11:00 Xiao-Li Meng (Harvard): “Artificial Bayesian Monte Carlo Integration: A Practical Resolution to the Bayesian (Normalizing Constant) Paradox” 11:00-12:00 Julien Stoehr (Dauphine): “Gibbs sampling and ABC” 14:00-15:00 Arthur Ulysse Jacot-Guillarmod (École Polytechnique Fedérale de Lausanne): “Neural Tangent Kernel: […]

## Bayesian intelligence in Warwick

This is an announcement for an exciting CRiSM Day in Warwick on 20 March 2019: with speakers 10:00-11:00 Xiao-Li Meng (Harvard): “Artificial Bayesian Monte Carlo Integration: A Practical Resolution to the Bayesian (Normalizing Constant) Paradox” 11:00-12:00 Julien Stoehr (Dauphine): “Gibbs sampling and ABC” 14:00-15:00 Arthur Ulysse Jacot-Guillarmod (École Polytechnique Fedérale de Lausanne): “Neural Tangent Kernel: […]