# Author: Mayo

## Souvenir C: A Severe Tester’s Translation Guide (Excursion 1 Tour II)

I will continue to post mementos and, at times, short excerpts following the pace of one “Tour” a week, in sync with some book clubs reading Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (SIST or Statinfast 2018, CUP), e.g., Lakens. This puts us at Excursion 2 Tour I, but first, here’s […]

## The Replication Crises and its Constructive Role in the Philosophy of Statistics-PSA2018

Below are my slides from a session on replication at the recent Philosophy of Science Association meetings in Seattle.

## Tour Guide Mementos (Excursion 1 Tour II of How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars)

Excursion 1 Tour II: Error Probing Tools vs. Logics of Evidence  Blurb. Core battles revolve around the relevance of a method’s error probabilities. What’s distinctive about the severe testing account is that it uses error probabilities evidentially: to assess how severely a claim has passed a test. Error control is necessary but not sufficient for […]

## Tour Guide Mementos (Excursion 1Tour I of How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars)

Excursion 1 Tour II: Error Probing Tools vs. Logics of Evidence  Blurb. Core battles revolve around the relevance of a method’s error probabilities. What’s distinctive about the severe testing account is that it uses error probabilities evidentially: to assess how severely a claim has passed a test. Error control is necessary but not sufficient for […]

## A small amendment to Nuzzo’s tips for communicating p-values

I’ve been asked if I agree with Regina Nuzzo’s recent note on p-values [i]. I don’t want to be nit-picky, but one very small addition to Nuzzo’s helpful tips for communicating statistical significance can make it a great deal more helpful. Here’s my friendly amendment. She writes: Basics to remember What’s most important to keep […]

## severe testing or severe sabotage? Christian Roberts and the book slasher.

severe testing or severe sabotage? [not a book review]   I came across this anomaly on Christian Roberts’s blog.  Last week, I received this new book of Deborah Mayo, which I was looking forward reading and annotating!, but thrice alas, the book had been sabotaged: except for the preface and acknowledgements, the entire book is printed upside down [a […]

## Tour Guide Mementos (Excursion 1, Tour I of How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars)

Tour guides in your travels jot down Mementos and Keepsakes from each Tour[i]. Their scribblings, which may at times include details, at other times just a word or two, may be modified through the Tour, and in response to questions from travelers (so please check back). Since these are just mementos, they should not be […]

## Philosophy of Statistics & the Replication Crisis in Science: A philosophical intro to my book (slides)

In my talk yesterday at the Philosophy Department at Virginia Tech, I introduced my new book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars (Cambridge 2018). I began with my preface (explaining the meaning of my title), and turned to the Statistics Wars, largely from Excursion 1 of the book. After […]

## Excursion 2 Tour II (3rd stop): Falsiﬁcation, Pseudoscience, Induction (2.3)

Where you are in the Journey*  We’ll move from the philosophical ground ﬂoor to connecting themes from other levels, from Popperian falsiﬁcation to signiﬁcance tests, and from Popper’s demarcation to current-day problems of pseudoscience and irreplication. An excerpt from our Museum Guide gives a broad-brush sketch of the ﬁrst few sections of Tour II: Karl Popper […]

## “It should never be true, though it is still often said that the conclusions are no more accurate than the data on which they are based”

My new book, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars,” you might have discovered, includes Souvenirs throughout (A-Z). But there are some highlights within sections that might be missed in the excerpts I’m posting. One such “keepsake” is a quote from Fisher at the very end of Section 2.1.  These […]

## Excursion 2: Taboos of Induction and Falsification: Tour I (first stop)

Where you are in the Journey*  Cox: [I]n some ﬁelds foundations do not seem very important, but we both think that foundations of statistical inference are important; why do you think that is? Mayo: I think because they ask about fundamental questions of evidence, inference, and probability … we invariably cross into philosophical questions about […]

## All She Wrote (so far): Error Statistics Philosophy: 7 years on

Error Statistics Philosophy: Blog Contents (7 years) [i] By: D. G. Mayo Dear Reader: I began this blog 7 years ago (Sept. 3, 2011)! A big celebration is taking place at the Elbar Room this evening, both for the blog and the appearance of my new book: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the […]

## Excursion 1 Tour I (3rd stop): The Current State of Play in Statistical Foundations: A View From a Hot-Air Balloon (1.3)

How can a discipline, central to science and to critical thinking, have two methodologies, two logics, two approaches that frequently give substantively different answers to the same problems? … Is complacency in the face of contradiction acceptable for a central discipline of science? (Donald Fraser 2011, p. 329) We [statisticians] are not blameless … we […]

## Excursion 1 Tour I (2nd stop): Probabilism, Performance, and Probativeness (1.2)

I shall be concerned with the foundations of the subject. But in case it should be thought that this means I am not here strongly concerned with practical applications, let me say right away that confusion about the foundations of the subject is responsible, in my opinion, for much of the misuse of the statistics […]

## Excursion 1 Tour I: Beyond Probabilism and Performance: Severity Requirement

I’m talking about a speciﬁc, extra type of integrity that is [beyond] not lying, but bending over backwards to show how you’re maybe wrong, that you ought to have when acting as a scientist. (Feynman 1974/1985, p. 387) It is easy to lie with statistics. Or so the cliché goes. It is also very diﬃcult […]

## RSS 2018 – Significance Tests: Rethinking the Controversy

Day 2, Wednesday 05/09/2018 11:20 – 13:20 Keynote 4 – Significance Tests: Rethinking the Controversy Assembly Room Speakers: Sir David Cox, Nuffield College, Oxford Deborah Mayo, Virginia Tech Richard Morey, Cardiff University Aris Spanos, Virginia Tech Intermingled in today’s statistical controversies are some long-standing, but unresolved, disagreements on the nature and principles of statistical methods […]

## 3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2015): MEMORY LANE

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: August 2015. I mark in red 3-4 posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1], and in green up to 3 others of relevance to philosophy of statistics [2]. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group count as one. August 2015 08/05 Neyman: Distinguishing […]

## 3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2015): MEMORY LANE

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: August 2015. I mark in red 3-4 posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1], and in green up to 3 others of relevance to philosophy of statistics [2]. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group count as one. August 2015 08/05 Neyman: Distinguishing […]

## A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics

Continuing with the discussion of E.S. Pearson in honor of his birthday: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics by Aris Spanos     Egon Pearson (11 August 1895 – 12 June 1980), is widely known today for his contribution in recasting of Fisher’s significance testing into the Neyman-Pearson (1933) theory of hypothesis testing. Occasionally, he is also […]