Day 2, Wednesday 05/09/2018 11:20 – 13:20 Keynote 4 – Significance Tests: Rethinking the Controversy Assembly Room Speakers: Sir David Cox, Nuffield College, Oxford Deborah Mayo, Virginia Tech Richard Morey, Cardiff University Aris Spanos, Virginia Tech Intermingled in today’s statistical controversies are some long-standing, but unresolved, disagreements on the nature and principles of statistical methods […]

# Author: Mayo

## 3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2015): MEMORY LANE

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: August 2015. I mark in red 3-4 posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1], and in green up to 3 others of relevance to philosophy of statistics [2]. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group count as one. August 2015 08/05 Neyman: Distinguishing […]

## 3 YEARS AGO (AUGUST 2015): MEMORY LANE

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: August 2015. I mark in red 3-4 posts that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1], and in green up to 3 others of relevance to philosophy of statistics [2]. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group count as one. August 2015 08/05 Neyman: Distinguishing […]

## A. Spanos: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics

Continuing with the discussion of E.S. Pearson in honor of his birthday: Egon Pearson’s Neglected Contributions to Statistics by Aris Spanos Egon Pearson (11 August 1895 – 12 June 1980), is widely known today for his contribution in recasting of Fisher’s significance testing into the Neyman-Pearson (1933) theory of hypothesis testing. Occasionally, he is also […]

## Egon Pearson’s Heresy

Today is Egon Pearson’s birthday. In honor of his birthday, I am posting “Statistical Concepts in Their Relation to Reality” (Pearson 1955). I’ve posted it several times over the years, but always find a new gem or two, despite its being so short. E. Pearson rejected some of the familiar tenets that have come to […]

## For Popper’s Birthday: Reading from Conjectures and Refutations (+ self-test)

Today is Karl Popper’s birthday. I’m linking to a reading from his Conjectures and Refutations[i] along with: Popper Self-Test Questions. It includes multiple choice questions, quotes to ponder, an essay, and thumbnail definitions at the end[ii]. Blog Readers who wish to send me their answers will have their papers graded [use the comments or error@vt.edu.] An A- or better […]

## 3 YEARS AGO (JULY 2015): MEMORY LANE

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: July 2015. I mark in red 3-4 posts from each month that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1], and in green up to 3 others of general relevance to philosophy of statistics [2]. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group count as one. July […]

## S. Senn: Personal perils: are numbers needed to treat misleading us as to the scope for personalised medicine? (Guest Post)

Personal perils: are numbers needed to treat misleading us as to the scope for personalised medicine? A common misinterpretation of Numbers Needed to Treat is causing confusion about the scope for personalised medicine. Stephen Senn Consultant Statistician, Edinburgh Introduction Thirty years ago, Laupacis et al1 proposed an intuitively appealing way that physicians could decide how […]

## Statistics and the Higgs Discovery: 5-6 yr Memory Lane

I’m reblogging a few of the Higgs posts at the 6th anniversary of the 2012 discovery. (The first was in this post.) The following, was originally “Higgs Analysis and Statistical Flukes: part 2″ (from March, 2013).[1] Some people say to me: “This kind of [severe testing] reasoning is fine for a ‘sexy science’ like high energy physics (HEP)”–as if their statistical inferences […]

## Replication Crises and the Statistics Wars: Hidden Controversies

Below are the slides from my June 14 presentation at the X-Phil conference on Reproducibility and Replicability in Psychology and Experimental Philosophy at University College London. What I think must be examined seriously are the “hidden” issues that are going unattended in replication research and related statistics wars. An overview of the “hidden controversies” are on […]

## Your data-driven claims must still be probed severely

Below are the slides from my talk today at Columbia University at a session, Philosophy of Science and the New Paradigm of Data-Driven Science, at an American Statistical Association Conference on Statistical Learning and Data Science/Nonparametric Statistics. Todd was brave to sneak in philosophy of science in an otherwise highly mathematical conference. Philosophy of Science and […]

## “Intentions (in your head)” is the code word for “error probabilities (of a procedure)”: Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday

Today is Allan Birnbaum’s Birthday. Birnbaum’s (1962) classic “On the Foundations of Statistical Inference,” in Breakthroughs in Statistics (volume I 1993), concerns a principle that remains at the heart of today’s controversies in statistics–even if it isn’t obvious at first: the Likelihood Principle (LP) (also called the strong likelihood Principle SLP, to distinguish it from the […]

## The Meaning of My Title: Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars

Excerpts from the Preface: The Statistics Wars: Today’s “statistics wars” are fascinating: They are at once ancient and up to the minute. They reflect disagreements on one of the deepest, oldest, philosophical questions: How do humans learn about the world despite threats of error due to incomplete and variable data? At the same time, they […]

## Getting Up to Speed on Principles of Statistics

“If a statistical analysis is clearly shown to be effective … it gains nothing from being … principled,” according to Terry Speed in an interesting IMS article (2016) that Harry Crane tweeted about a couple of days ago [i]. Crane objects that you need principles to determine if it is effective, else it “seems that a […]

## 3 YEARS AGO (May 2015): Monthly Memory Lane

3 years ago… MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: May 2015. I mark in red 3-4 posts from each month that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1]. Posts that are part of a “unit” or a group count as one, as in the case of 5/16, 5/19 […]

## Neyman vs the ‘Inferential’ Probabilists continued (a)

Today is Jerzy Neyman’s Birthday (April 16, 1894 – August 5, 1981). I am posting a brief excerpt and a link to a paper of his that I hadn’t posted before: Neyman, J. (1962), ‘Two Breakthroughs in the Theory of Statistical Decision Making‘ [i] It’s chock full of ideas and arguments, but the one that interests […]

## 3 YEARS AGO (APRIL 2015): MEMORY LANE

MONTHLY MEMORY LANE: 3 years ago: April 2015. I mark in red 3-4 posts from each month that seem most apt for general background on key issues in this blog, excluding those reblogged recently[1], and in green up to 3 others of general relevance to philosophy of statistics (in months where I’ve blogged a lot)[2]. Posts that are part of a “unit” […]

## New Warning: Proceed With Caution Until the “Alt Stat Approaches” are Evaluated

I predicted that the degree of agreement behind the ASA’s “6 principles” on p-values , partial as it was,was unlikely to be replicated when it came to most of the “other approaches” with which some would supplement or replace significance tests– notably Bayesian updating, Bayes factors, or likelihood ratios (confidence intervals are dual to hypotheses tests). [My […]

## February Palindrome Winner: Lucas Friesen

Winner of the February 2018 Palindrome Contest: (a dozen book choice) Lucas Friesen: a graduate student in Measurement, Evaluation, and Research Methodology at the University of British Columbia Palindrome: Ares, send a mere vest set? Bagel-bag madness. Able! Elbas! Send AM: “Gable-Gab test severe. Madness era.” The requirement: A palindrome using “madness*” (+ Elba, of […]

## J. Pearl: Challenging the Hegemony of Randomized Controlled Trials: Comments on Deaton and Cartwright

Judea Pearl* wrote to me to invite readers of Error Statistics Philosophy to comment on a recent post of his (from his Causal Analysis blog here) pertaining to a guest post by Stephen Senn (“Being a Statistician Means never Having to Say You Are Certain”.) He has added a special addendum for us.[i] Challenging the […]