Blog Archives

Converting combination of random variables to hierarchical form for JAGS (BUGS, Stan, etc.)

August 20, 2014
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Converting combination of random variables to hierarchical form for JAGS (BUGS, Stan, etc.)

An emailer asks:Hi, John. Long-time listener, first-time caller... I have a model that says X is a function of three (independent) random variables: X ~ normal(mu, sigma) / uniform(a,a+b) - beta(v,w) and I also have N random samples of X. Can I use JAG...

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How to use MCMC posterior as prior for future data

August 15, 2014
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An emailer writes:Dear Prof. Kruschke,Hello. My name is ... and I am ... . I'm trying to apply Bayesian theorem in developing a model of ... . I used your code to estimate posterior distribution without any trouble. Here is my question. Would you ki...

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Stopping and testing intentions in p values

August 12, 2014
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An emailer asks:I am really interested in Bayesian analysis, but I don't get the issue of sampling intention being so important in frequentist t-tests; if you have 60 values you have 60 values surely - why does your intention matter? The computer does ...

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Prior for normality (df) parameter in t distribution

August 8, 2014
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Prior for normality (df) parameter in t distribution

A routine way to describe outliers in metric data is with a heavy-tailed t distribution instead of with a normal distribution. The heaviness of the tails is governed by a normality parameter, ν, also called the df parameter. What is a reasonable prior...

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Potpourri 2: more misc emails regarding doing Bayesian data analysis

April 1, 2014
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More miscellaneous communications with readers. (I have omitted all the salutations and pleasantries to save space here, but most correspondents do begin and end their messages with introductions and salutations that I truly appreciate.) Again, apologi...

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Potpourri of recent inquires about doing Bayesian data analysis

March 22, 2014
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I get a lot of email asking about the book and the blog. Too often, I say to myself, "That's interesting. I'll have to think about it and reply later." And then later never comes. My apologies to everyone to whom I have not yet replied. Below is a samp...

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Bayesian estimation and precision as the goal for data collection (expanded)

March 15, 2014
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Precision as the goal for data collection, talk at U.C. Irvine, March 14, 2014.Part 1: Rejecting null is not enough, also need estimate and precision. Bayesian estimation supersedes confidence intervals and "the new statistics". Part 2: Two Bayesian w...

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Recent Advances in Bayesian Inference at U.C. Irvine, March 14

March 8, 2014
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Recent Advances in Bayesian Inference at U.C. Irvine, March 14

Recent Advances in Bayesian InferenceVenue:University of California at Irvine,1517 Social and Behavioral Sciences Gateway buildingDate:Friday, March 14, 2014Speakers:9:30 John Kruschke (Indiana University). Precision as the goal for data collection.10:...

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Bayesian Tests to Quantify the Result of a Replication Attempt

February 22, 2014
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This manuscript looks like a nice use of Bayes factors to assess replication results. I have not read it yet in detail, but the idea sounds right on target. From the abstract: To quantify replication outcomes we propose a novel Bayesian replication te...

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Improved icons for Bayesian and frequentist analysis

February 14, 2014
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Improved icons for Bayesian and frequentist analysis

This post presents icons that attempt to capture the essence of Bayesian and frequentist analysis. There are four icons: Bayesian and frequentist approaches to decisions about null values, and Bayesian and frequentist approaches to parameter estimation...

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