Blog Archives

Bent Coins for a Twisted Mind

May 4, 2017
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Bent Coins for a Twisted Mind

Ben Motz voluntarily sat through an entire semester of my Bayesian stats course. In karmic retribution, after the conclusion of the course he surprised me with a set of biased coins that he designed and created with the amazing craftsmanship of Jesse ...

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Bayesian workshops, June and August 2017

April 16, 2017
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Bayesian workshops, June and August 2017

Upcoming multi-day workshops in doing Bayesian data analysis (2017):June 5 - 9. Stats Camp, Albuquerque, New Mexico (USA). Taught by Prof. John Kruschke. June 12 - 16. Global School for Empirical Research Methods, St. Gallen, Switzerland. Taught by ...

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Trade-off of between-group and within-group variance (and implosive shrinkage)

April 8, 2017
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Background: Consider data that would traditionally be analyzed as single-factor ANOVA; that is, a continuous metric predicted variable, \(y\), and a nominal predictor, "Group." In particular, consider the data plotted as red dots here:A Bayesian approa...

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A foolish prior on consistency is the howling of shrunken minds

April 2, 2017
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A foolish prior on consistency is the howling of shrunken minds

(Photo from Professor Sylvain Fiset's web site.)Professor Sylvain Fiset has been using Bayesian methods (from DBDA2E)  to analyze short-term memory of dogs. In each experimental trial, a dog watched a human experimenter tuck away a treat in one of...

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Doggerel Doggies: The Generalized Linear Model

March 5, 2017
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Doggerel Doggies: The Generalized Linear Model

The opening "poem" from Chapter 15 of DBDA2E. The color coding explains the correspondence of metaphor to math.

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Workshops & courses doing Bayesian data analysis, June – Aug 2017

February 23, 2017
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Workshops & courses doing Bayesian data analysis, June – Aug 2017

Upcoming multi-day workshops in doing Bayesian data analysis (2017):June 5 - 9. Stats Camp, Albuquerque, New Mexico (USA). Taught by Prof. John Kruschke. June 12 - 16. Global School for Empirical Research Methods, St. Gallen, Switzerland. Taught by ...

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Interpreting Bayesian posterior distribution of a parameter: Is density meaningful?

February 19, 2017
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Interpreting Bayesian posterior distribution of a parameter: Is density meaningful?

Background: Suppose a researcher is interested in the Bayesian posterior distribution of a parameter, because the parameter is directly meaningful in the research domain. This occurs, for example, in psychometrics. Specifically, in item response theory...

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Equivalence testing (two one-sided test) and NHST compared with HDI and ROPE

February 16, 2017
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Equivalence testing (two one-sided test) and NHST compared with HDI and ROPE

In this blog post I show that frequentist equivalence testing (using the procedure of two one-sided tests: TOST) with null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) can produce conflicting decisions for the same parameter values, that is, TOST can accept ...

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The Bayesian New Statistics – finally published

February 8, 2017
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The Bayesian New Statistics – finally published

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.Abstract: In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and es...

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Courses doing Bayesian data analysis, June 2017

January 29, 2017
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Courses doing Bayesian data analysis, June 2017

UPDATED >HERE<. Choose from two multi-day workshops doing Bayesian data analysis in June, 2017:2017 June 20 - 23. Four-day course. Interuniversity Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR), Ann Arbor, Michigan. 2017 June 5 - 9. Five-da...

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