Author: Andrew

Some thoughts after reading “Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup”

I just read the above-titled John Carreyrou book, and it’s as excellent as everyone says it is. I suppose it’s the mark of any compelling story that it will bring to mind other things you’ve been thinking about, and in this case I saw many connections between the story of Theranos—a company that raised billions […]

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Some thoughts after reading “Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup”

I just read the above-titled John Carreyrou book, and it’s as excellent as everyone says it is. I suppose it’s the mark of any compelling story that it will bring to mind other things you’ve been thinking about, and in this case I saw many connections between the story of Theranos—a company that raised billions […]

The post Some thoughts after reading “Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“Richard Jarecki, Doctor Who Conquered Roulette, Dies at 86”

[relevant video] Thanatos Savehn is right. This obituary, written by someone named “Daniel Slotnik” (!), is just awesome: Many gamblers see roulette as a game of pure chance — a wheel is spun, a ball is released and winners and losers are determined by luck. Richard Jarecki refused to believe it was that simple. He […]

The post “Richard Jarecki, Doctor Who Conquered Roulette, Dies at 86” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“Richard Jarecki, Doctor Who Conquered Roulette, Dies at 86”

[relevant video] Thanatos Savehn is right. This obituary, written by someone named “Daniel Slotnik” (!), is just awesome: Many gamblers see roulette as a game of pure chance — a wheel is spun, a ball is released and winners and losers are determined by luck. Richard Jarecki refused to believe it was that simple. He […]

The post “Richard Jarecki, Doctor Who Conquered Roulette, Dies at 86” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

What is “party balancing” and how does it explain midterm elections?

As is well known, presidential election outcomes are somewhat predictable based on economic performance. Votes for the U.S. Congress, are to a large part determined by party balancing. Right now, the Republicans control the executive branch, both houses of congress, and the judiciary, so it makes sense that voters are going to swing toward the […]

The post What is “party balancing” and how does it explain midterm elections? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

What is “party balancing” and how does it explain midterm elections?

As is well known, presidential election outcomes are somewhat predictable based on economic performance. Votes for the U.S. Congress, are to a large part determined by party balancing. Right now, the Republicans control the executive branch, both houses of congress, and the judiciary, so it makes sense that voters are going to swing toward the […]

The post What is “party balancing” and how does it explain midterm elections? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“The most important aspect of a statistical analysis is not what you do with the data, it’s what data you use” (survey adjustment edition)

Dean Eckles pointed me to this recent report by Andrew Mercer, Arnold Lau, and Courtney Kennedy of the Pew Research Center, titled, “For Weighting Online Opt-In Samples, What Matters Most? The right variables make a big difference for accuracy. Complex statistical methods, not so much.” I like most of what they write, but I think […]

The post “The most important aspect of a statistical analysis is not what you do with the data, it’s what data you use” (survey adjustment edition) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“The most important aspect of a statistical analysis is not what you do with the data, it’s what data you use” (survey adjustment edition)

Dean Eckles pointed me to this recent report by Andrew Mercer, Arnold Lau, and Courtney Kennedy of the Pew Research Center, titled, “For Weighting Online Opt-In Samples, What Matters Most? The right variables make a big difference for accuracy. Complex statistical methods, not so much.” I like most of what they write, but I think […]

The post “The most important aspect of a statistical analysis is not what you do with the data, it’s what data you use” (survey adjustment edition) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Trapped in the spam folder? Here’s what to do.

[Somewhat-relevant image] It seems that some people’s comments are getting trapped in the spam filter. Here’s how things go. The blog software triages the comments: 1. Most legitimate comments are automatically approved. You write the comment and it shows up right away. 2. Some comments are flagged as potentially spam. About half of these are […]

The post Trapped in the spam folder? Here’s what to do. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Trapped in the spam folder? Here’s what to do.

[Somewhat-relevant image] It seems that some people’s comments are getting trapped in the spam filter. Here’s how things go. The blog software triages the comments: 1. Most legitimate comments are automatically approved. You write the comment and it shows up right away. 2. Some comments are flagged as potentially spam. About half of these are […]

The post Trapped in the spam folder? Here’s what to do. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Let’s be open about the evidence for the benefits of open science

A reader who wishes to remain anonymous writes: I would be curious to hear your thoughts on is motivated reasoning among open science advocates. In particular, I’ve noticed that papers arguing for open practices have seriously bad/nonexistent causal identification strategies. Examples: Kidwell et al. 2017, Badges to Acknowledge Open Practices: A Simple, Low-Cost, Effective Method […]

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Let’s be open about the evidence for the benefits of open science

A reader who wishes to remain anonymous writes: I would be curious to hear your thoughts on is motivated reasoning among open science advocates. In particular, I’ve noticed that papers arguing for open practices have seriously bad/nonexistent causal identification strategies. Examples: Kidwell et al. 2017, Badges to Acknowledge Open Practices: A Simple, Low-Cost, Effective Method […]

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Response to Rafa: Why I don’t think ROC [receiver operating characteristic] works as a model for science

Someone pointed me to this post from a few years ago where Rafael Irizarry argues that scientific “pessimists” such as myself are, at least in some fields, “missing a critical point: that in practice, there is an inverse relationship between increasing rates of true discoveries and decreasing rates of false discoveries and that true discoveries […]

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Response to Rafa: Why I don’t think ROC [receiver operating characteristic] works as a model for science

Someone pointed me to this post from a few years ago where Rafael Irizarry argues that scientific “pessimists” such as myself are, at least in some fields, “missing a critical point: that in practice, there is an inverse relationship between increasing rates of true discoveries and decreasing rates of false discoveries and that true discoveries […]

The post Response to Rafa: Why I don’t think ROC [receiver operating characteristic] works as a model for science appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Don’t call it a bandit

Here’s why I don’t like the term “multi-armed bandit” to describe the exploration-exploitation tradeoff of inference and decision analysis. First, and less importantly, each slot machine (or “bandit”) only has one arm. Hence it’s many one-armed bandits, not one multi-armed bandit. Second, the basic strategy in these problems is to play on lots of machines […]

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Don’t call it a bandit

Here’s why I don’t like the term “multi-armed bandit” to describe the exploration-exploitation tradeoff of inference and decision analysis. First, and less importantly, each slot machine (or “bandit”) only has one arm. Hence it’s many one-armed bandits, not one multi-armed bandit. Second, the basic strategy in these problems is to play on lots of machines […]

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The replication crisis and the political process

Jackson Monroe writes: I thought you might be interested in an article [by Dan McLaughlin] in NRO that discusses the replication crisis as part of a broadside against all public health research and social science. It seemed as though the author might be twisting the nature of the replication crisis toward his partisan ends, but […]

The post The replication crisis and the political process appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

The replication crisis and the political process

Jackson Monroe writes: I thought you might be interested in an article [by Dan McLaughlin] in NRO that discusses the replication crisis as part of a broadside against all public health research and social science. It seemed as though the author might be twisting the nature of the replication crisis toward his partisan ends, but […]

The post The replication crisis and the political process appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

China air pollution regression discontinuity update

Avery writes: There is a follow up paper for the paper “Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China’s Huai River policy” [by Yuyu Chen, Avraham Ebenstein, Michael Greenstone, and Hongbin Li] which you have posted on a couple times and used in lectures. It seems that there […]

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China air pollution regression discontinuity update

Avery writes: There is a follow up paper for the paper “Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China’s Huai River policy” [by Yuyu Chen, Avraham Ebenstein, Michael Greenstone, and Hongbin Li] which you have posted on a couple times and used in lectures. It seems that there […]

The post China air pollution regression discontinuity update appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.