Continuing from our earlier discussion . . . Yair posted some results from his MRP analysis of voter turnout: 1. The 2018 electorate was younger than in 2014, though not as young as exit polls suggest. 2. The 2018 electorate was also more diverse, with African American and Latinx communities surpassing their share of votes […]
John Spivack writes: I am contacting you on behalf of the biostatistics journal club at our institution, the Mount Sinai School of Medicine. We are working Ph.D. biostatisticians and would like the opinion of a true expert on several questions having to do with observational studies—questions that we have not found to be well addressed […]
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We’re always discussing election results on three levels: their direct political consequences, their implications for future politics, and what we can infer about public opinion. In 2018 the Democrats broadened their geographic base, as we can see in this graph from Yair Ghitza: Party balancing At the national level, what happened is what we expected […]
The post 2018: What really happened? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Benjamin Carlisle writes: A year ago, I received a message from Anna Powell-Smith about a research paper written by two doctors from Cambridge University that was a mirror image of a post I wrote on my personal blog roughly two years prior. The structure of the document was the same, as was the rationale, the […]
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Laurent Belsie writes: An economist formerly with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau wrote a paper on whether a move away from forced arbitration would cost credit card companies money. He found that the results are statistically insignificant at the 95 percent (and 90 percent) confidence level. But the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency […]
The post Watch out for naively (because implicitly based on flat-prior) Bayesian statements based on classical confidence intervals! (Comptroller of the Currency edition) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Thomas Perneger points us to this amusing quiz on statistics terminology:
Lots more where that came from.
The post “35. What differentiates solitary confinement, county jail and house arrest” and 70 others appeared first on Statistical Mod…
Roy Mendelssohn points us to this paper by Spyros Makridakis, Evangelos Spiliotis, and Vassilios Assimakopoulos, which begins: Machine Learning (ML) methods have been proposed in the academic literature as alternatives to statistical ones for time series forecasting. Yet, scant evidence is available about their relative performance in terms of accuracy and computational requirements. The purpose […]
Just a reminder.
The post Why it can be rational to vote appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Regarding our recent post on the syllogism that ate science, someone points us to this article, “The CSI Effect: Popular Fiction About Forensic Science Affects Public Expectations About Real Forensic Science,” by N. J. Schweitzer and Michael J. Saks. We’ll get to the CSI Effect in a bit, but first I want to share the […]
From the university webpage: Robert J. Sternberg is Professor of Human Development in the College of Human Ecology at Cornell University. . . . Sternberg is the author of over 1700 refereed publications. . . . How did he compile over 1700 refereed publications? Nick Brown tells the story: I [Brown] was recently contacted by […]
The post Cornell prof (but not the pizzagate guy!) has one quick trick to getting 1700 peer reviewed publications on your CV appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Brendan Nyhan and Thomas Zeitzoff write: The results do not provide clear support for the lack-of control hypothesis. Self-reported feelings of low and high control are positively associated with conspiracy belief in observational data (model 1; p
The post “We are reluctant to engage in post hoc speculation about this unexpected result, but it does not clearly support our hypothesis” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Eren Metin Elçi writes: I just watched this video the value of theory in applied fields (like statistics), it really resonated with my previous research experiences in statistical physics and on the interplay between randomised perfect sampling algorithms and Markov Chain mixing as well as my current perspective on the status quo of deep learning. […]
The post “Simulations are not scalable but theory is scalable” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Innsbruck, 7 Nov 2018: The study of American politics as a window into understanding uncertainty in science We begin by discussing recent American elections in the context of political polarization, and we consider similarities and differences with European politics. We then discuss statistical challenges in the measurement of public opinion: inference from opinion polls with […]
Yair just published a long post explaining (a) how he and his colleagues use Mister P and the voter file to get fine-grained geographic and demographic estimates of voter turnout and vote preference, and (b) why this makes a difference. The relevant research paper is here. As Yair says in his above-linked post, he and […]
Fritz Strack points us to this article, “When Both the Original Study and Its Failed Replication Are Correct: Feeling Observed Eliminates the Facial-Feedback Effect,” by Tom Noah, Yaacov Schul, and Ruth Mayo, who write: According to the facial-feedback hypothesis, the facial activity associated with particular emotional expressions can influence people’s affective experiences. Recently, a replication […]
The post Facial feedback: “These findings suggest that minute differences in the experimental protocol might lead to theoretically meaningful changes in the outcomes.” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
Raghuveer Parthasarathy writes: The U.S. National Science Foundation ran an interesting call for proposals recently called the “Idea Machine,” aiming to gather “Big Ideas” to shape the future of research. It was open not just to scientists, but to anyone interested in potentially identifying grand challenges and new directions. He continues: (i) There are non-obvious, […]
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Back in November 2010 I wrote an article that I still like, attempting to answer the question: “How could the voters have swung so much in two years? And, why didn’t Obama give Americans a better sense of his long-term economic plan in 2009, back when he still had a political mandate?” My focus was […]
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Here’s the talk I gave a few months ago at the Society of Research on Educational Effectiveness. Enjoy.
The post “Evidence-Based Practice Is a Two-Way Street” (video of my speech at SREE) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causa…
Patrick Atwater writes: Curious to your thoughts on a bit of a statistical and philosophical quandary. We often make statements like this drought was a 1 in 400 year event but what do we really mean when we say that? In California for example there was an oft repeated line that the recent historic drought was […]
The post What does it mean to talk about a “1 in 600 year drought”? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
It seems to be Mister P week here on the blog . . . A question came in, someone was doing MRP on a political survey and wanted to adjust for political ideology, which is a variable that they can’t get poststratification data for. Here’s what I recommended: If a survey selects on a non-census […]
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