Author: Andrew

When “nudge” doesn’t work: Medication Reminders to Outcomes After Myocardial Infarction

Gur Huberman points to this news article by Aaron Carroll, “Don’t Nudge Me: The Limits of Behavioral Economics in Medicine,” which reports on a recent study by Kevin Volpp et al. that set out “to determine whether a system of medication reminders using financial incentives and social support delays subsequent vascular events in patients following […]

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When “nudge” doesn’t work: Medication Reminders to Outcomes After Myocardial Infarction

Gur Huberman points to this news article by Aaron Carroll, “Don’t Nudge Me: The Limits of Behavioral Economics in Medicine,” which reports on a recent study by Kevin Volpp et al. that set out “to determine whether a system of medication reminders using financial incentives and social support delays subsequent vascular events in patients following […]

The post When “nudge” doesn’t work: Medication Reminders to Outcomes After Myocardial Infarction appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Comparing racism from different eras: If only Tucker Carlson had been around in the 1950s he could’ve been a New York Intellectual.

TV commentator Carlson in 2018 recently raised a stir by saying that immigration makes the United States “poorer, and dirtier, and more divided,” which reminded me of this rant from literary critic Alfred Kazin in 1957: Kazin put it in his diary and Carlson broadcast it on TV, so not quite the same thing. But […]

The post Comparing racism from different eras: If only Tucker Carlson had been around in the 1950s he could’ve been a New York Intellectual. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Comparing racism from different eras: If only Tucker Carlson had been around in the 1950s he could’ve been a New York Intellectual.

TV commentator Carlson in 2018 recently raised a stir by saying that immigration makes the United States “poorer, and dirtier, and more divided,” which reminded me of this rant from literary critic Alfred Kazin in 1957: Kazin put it in his diary and Carlson broadcast it on TV, so not quite the same thing. But […]

The post Comparing racism from different eras: If only Tucker Carlson had been around in the 1950s he could’ve been a New York Intellectual. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Classifying yin and yang using MRI

Zad Chow writes: I wanted to pass along this study I found a while back that aimed to see whether there was any possible signal in an ancient Chinese theory of depression that classifies major depressive disorder into “yin” and “yang” subtypes. The authors write the following, The “Yin and Yang” theory is a fundamental […]

The post Classifying yin and yang using MRI appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Classifying yin and yang using MRI

Zad Chow writes: I wanted to pass along this study I found a while back that aimed to see whether there was any possible signal in an ancient Chinese theory of depression that classifies major depressive disorder into “yin” and “yang” subtypes. The authors write the following, The “Yin and Yang” theory is a fundamental […]

The post Classifying yin and yang using MRI appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Why do sociologists (and bloggers) focus on the negative? 5 possible explanations. (A post in the style of Fabio Rojas)

Fabio Rojas asks why the academic field of sociology seems so focused on the negative. As he puts it, why doesn’t the semester begin with the statement, “Hi, everyone, this is soc 101, the scientific study of society. In this class, I’ll tell you about how American society is moving in some great directions as […]

The post Why do sociologists (and bloggers) focus on the negative? 5 possible explanations. (A post in the style of Fabio Rojas) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Why do sociologists (and bloggers) focus on the negative? 5 possible explanations. (A post in the style of Fabio Rojas)

Fabio Rojas asks why the academic field of sociology seems so focused on the negative. As he puts it, why doesn’t the semester begin with the statement, “Hi, everyone, this is soc 101, the scientific study of society. In this class, I’ll tell you about how American society is moving in some great directions as […]

The post Why do sociologists (and bloggers) focus on the negative? 5 possible explanations. (A post in the style of Fabio Rojas) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Surprise-hacking: “the narrative of blindness and illusion sells, and therefore continues to be the central thesis of popular books written by psychologists and cognitive scientists”

Teppo Felin sends along this article with Mia Felin, Joachim Krueger, and Jan Koenderink on “surprise-hacking,” and writes: We essentially see surprise-hacking as the upstream, theoretical cousin of p-hacking. Though, surprise-hacking can’t be resolved with replication, more data or preregistration. We use perception and priming research to make these points (linking to Kahneman and priming, […]

The post Surprise-hacking: “the narrative of blindness and illusion sells, and therefore continues to be the central thesis of popular books written by psychologists and cognitive scientists” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Surprise-hacking: “the narrative of blindness and illusion sells, and therefore continues to be the central thesis of popular books written by psychologists and cognitive scientists”

Teppo Felin sends along this article with Mia Felin, Joachim Krueger, and Jan Koenderink on “surprise-hacking,” and writes: We essentially see surprise-hacking as the upstream, theoretical cousin of p-hacking. Though, surprise-hacking can’t be resolved with replication, more data or preregistration. We use perception and priming research to make these points (linking to Kahneman and priming, […]

The post Surprise-hacking: “the narrative of blindness and illusion sells, and therefore continues to be the central thesis of popular books written by psychologists and cognitive scientists” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“My advisor and I disagree on how we should carry out repeated cross-validation. We would love to have a third expert opinion…”

Youyou Wu writes: I’m a postdoc studying scientific reproducibility. I have a machine learning question that I desperately need your help with. My advisor and I disagree on how we should carry out repeated cross-validation. We would love to have a third expert opinion… I’m trying to predict whether a study can be successfully replicated […]

The post “My advisor and I disagree on how we should carry out repeated cross-validation. We would love to have a third expert opinion…” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

How we should they carry out repeated cross-validation? They would like a third expert opinion…”

Someone writes: I’m a postdoc studying scientific reproducibility. I have a machine learning question that I desperately need your help with. . . . I’m trying to predict whether a study can be successfully replicated (DV), from the texts in the original published article. Our hypothesis is that language contains useful signals in distinguishing reproducible […]

The post How we should they carry out repeated cross-validation? They would like a third expert opinion…” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

A couple of thoughts regarding the hot hand fallacy fallacy

For many years we all believed the hot hand was a fallacy. It turns out we were all wrong. Fine. Such reversals happen. Anyway, now that we know the score, we can reflect on some of the cognitive biases that led us to stick with the “hot hand fallacy” story for so long. Jason Collins […]

The post A couple of thoughts regarding the hot hand fallacy fallacy appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

A couple of thoughts regarding the hot hand fallacy fallacy

For many years we all believed the hot hand was a fallacy. It turns out we were all wrong. Fine. Such reversals happen. Anyway, now that we know the score, we can reflect on some of the cognitive biases that led us to stick with the “hot hand fallacy” story for so long. Jason Collins […]

The post A couple of thoughts regarding the hot hand fallacy fallacy appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Oh, I hate it when work is criticized (or, in this case, fails in attempted replications) and then the original researchers don’t even consider the possibility that maybe in their original work they were inadvertently just finding patterns in noise.

I have a sad story for you today. Jason Collins tells it: In The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, Dan Ariely describes an experiment to determine how much people cheat . . . The question then becomes how to reduce cheating. Ariely describes one idea: We took a group of 450 participants and split them into […]

The post Oh, I hate it when work is criticized (or, in this case, fails in attempted replications) and then the original researchers don’t even consider the possibility that maybe in their original work they were inadvertently just finding patterns in noise. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Oh, I hate it when work is criticized (or, in this case, fails in attempted replications) and then the original researchers don’t even consider the possibility that maybe in their original work they were inadvertently just finding patterns in noise.

I have a sad story for you today. Jason Collins tells it: In The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, Dan Ariely describes an experiment to determine how much people cheat . . . The question then becomes how to reduce cheating. Ariely describes one idea: We took a group of 450 participants and split them into […]

The post Oh, I hate it when work is criticized (or, in this case, fails in attempted replications) and then the original researchers don’t even consider the possibility that maybe in their original work they were inadvertently just finding patterns in noise. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Time series of Democratic/Republican vote share in House elections

Yair prepared this graph of average district vote (imputing open seats at 75%/25%; see here for further discussion of this issue) for each House election year since 1976: Decades of Democratic dominance persisted through 1992; since then the two parties have been about even. As has been widely reported, a mixture of geographic factors and […]

The post Time series of Democratic/Republican vote share in House elections appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

Time series of Democratic/Republican vote share in House elections

Yair prepared this graph of average district vote (imputing open seats at 75%/25%; see here for further discussion of this issue) for each House election year since 1976: Decades of Democratic dominance persisted through 1992; since then the two parties have been about even. As has been widely reported, a mixture of geographic factors and […]

The post Time series of Democratic/Republican vote share in House elections appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“Do you have any recommendations for useful priors when datasets are small?”

A statistician who works in the pharmaceutical industry writes: I just read your paper (with Dan Simpson and Mike Betancourt) “The Prior Can Often Only Be Understood in the Context of the Likelihood” and I find it refreshing to read that “the practical utility of a prior distribution within a given analysis then depends critically […]

The post “Do you have any recommendations for useful priors when datasets are small?” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

“Do you have any recommendations for useful priors when datasets are small?”

A statistician who works in the pharmaceutical industry writes: I just read your paper (with Dan Simpson and Mike Betancourt) “The Prior Can Often Only Be Understood in the Context of the Likelihood” and I find it refreshing to read that “the practical utility of a prior distribution within a given analysis then depends critically […]

The post “Do you have any recommendations for useful priors when datasets are small?” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.