2018: Who actually voted? (The real story, not the exit polls.)

Continuing from our earlier discussion . . . Yair posted some results from his MRP analysis of voter turnout:

1. The 2018 electorate was younger than in 2014, though not as young as exit polls suggest.

2. The 2018 electorate was also more diverse, with African American and Latinx communities surpassing their share of votes cast in 2014.

3. Voters in 2018 were more educated than all the years in our dataset going back to 2006. . . . the exit poll shows the opposite trend. As noted earlier, they substantially changed their weighting scheme on education levels, so these groups can’t be reliably compared across years in the exit poll.

Details here.

The post 2018: Who actually voted? (The real story, not the exit polls.) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.