“We are reluctant to engage in post hoc speculation about this unexpected result, but it does not clearly support our hypothesis”

Brendan Nyhan and Thomas Zeitzoff write:

The results do not provide clear support for the lack-of control hypothesis. Self-reported feelings of low and high control are positively associated with conspiracy belief in observational data (model 1; p<.05 and p<.01, respectively). We are reluctant to engage in post hoc speculation about this unexpected result, but it does not clearly support our hypothesis. Moreover, our experimental treatment effect estimate for our low-control manipulation is null relative to both the high-control condition (the preregistered hypothesis test) as well as the baseline condition (a RQ) in both the combined (table 2) and individual item results (table B7). Finally, we find no evidence that the association with self-reported feelings of control in model 1 of table 2 or the effect of the control treatments in model 2 are moderated by anti-Western or anti-Jewish attitudes (results available on request). Our expectations are thus not supported.

It is good to see researchers openly express their uncertainty and be clear about the limitations of their data.

The post “We are reluctant to engage in post hoc speculation about this unexpected result, but it does not clearly support our hypothesis” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.