Stan goes to the World Cup

Leo Egidi shares his 2018 World Cup model, which he’s fitting in Stan.

But I don’t like this:

First, something’s missing. Where’s the U.S.??

More seriously, what’s with that “16.74%” thing? So bogus. You might as well say you’re 66.31 inches tall.

Anyway, as is often the case with Bayesian models, the point here is not the particular predictions but rather the transparency of the whole process. If the above win probabilities look wrong to you: Fine. You’re saying you have prior knowledge that’s not captured in Leo’s model. The thing to do next is to formally express that knowledge, alter the model, and re-fit in Stan.

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