Slow to update

May 11, 2018
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(This article was originally published at Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science, and syndicated at StatsBlogs.)

This post is a placeholder to remind Josh Miller and me to write our paper on slow updating in decision analysis, with the paradigmatic examples being pundits being slow to update their low probabilities of Leicester City and Donald Trump in 2016.

We have competing titles for this paper. Josh wants to call it, “The past as a reference point: ex-ante thinking and the slowness to update,” but I prefer “The past is another country and it’s hard to get from there to here.” Or, I guess, “The past is another country.” That by itself is a fine title.

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