Prediction contest

September 21, 2012
By

(This article was originally published at Simply Statistics, and syndicated at StatsBlogs.)

I have been seeing this paper all over Twitter/the blogosphere. It’s a sexy idea: can you predict how “high-impact” a scientist will be in the future. It is also a pretty flawed data analysis…so this weeks prediction contest is to identify why the statistics in this paper are so flawed. In my first pass read I noticed about 5 major flaws.

Editor’s note: I posted the criticisms and the authors respond here: http://disq.us/8bmrhl



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