London Olympics 100m men’s sprint results

August 5, 2012

(This article was originally published at mages' blog, and syndicated at StatsBlogs.)

The 100m mean's sprint finals of the 2012 London Olympics are over and Usain Bolt won the gold medal again with a winning time of 9.63s. Time to compare the result with my forecast of 9.68s, posted on 22 July.

My simple log-linear model predicted a winning time of 9.68s with a prediction interval from 9.39s to 9.97s. Well, that is of course a big interval of more than half a second, or ±3%. Yet, the winning time was only 0.05s away from my prediction. That is less than 1% difference. Not bad for such a simple model.
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