Forecasting the recession

Forecasters are under the pump with a recession that many didn’t see coming. As I don’t do any macroeconomic forecasting, I can sit back and smile smugly at some of my colleagues while I work on simpler problems such as forecasting in epidemiology, demography and energy demand. Some of those colleagues are cited in the Wall Street Journal today. The following quotation is interesting: The spate of cloudy crystal balls highlighted an uncomfortable reality about telling the future: It is hardest when it is most important.